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Some loading points you might be interested inThe red lines are from the monthly that show QQQ in a tight channel since 1/23. The white lines show some recent support and resistance levels. It broke resistance on the second attempt and resistance has now become support. I think $517 is a crucial level and will probably be revisited seeing how overbought my indicators show. It's 50% of wave 3 and I think a good loading level (plus a gap close) with the previous resistance level serving as a stop loss and short entry. If I'm correct I am expecting a 15 point gain from $517 in approximately 3 weeks (give or take a few trading days). Let me know how you see it, would love added perspectives
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Needlez33
Testing Candlestick Patterns on Real DataIn his fundamental book "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts," Thomas Bulkowski tested dozens of candlestick patterns using S&P market data. His research revealed that many well-known patterns perform quite differently from what conventional wisdom suggests. In this video, I’ll show you how to conduct a similar analysis using your own data to determine whether those fancy "Hammers" and "Shooting Stars" actually give you an edge in trading.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
SPY Analysis 12/06/24Key Observations on the Price Action (SPY): Trend and Price Context: - SPY is trading near its all-time high of $607.88, with the post-market price at $607.84. While price action remains bullish overall, the grey MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is building, indicating potential weakness or divergence. Support and Resistance: - The white horizontal line at 600 remains a critical support level, representing prior resistance that could act as a buying zone if SPY pulls back. - A breakout above $607.88 would signify renewed bullish strength and continuation to new highs. Moving Averages: - The 50-day MA (blue line) continues to slope upward, providing a general trend guide but not acting as dynamic support since price hasn’t recently interacted with it. - The 200-day MA (magenta line) remains far below the current price, confirming long-term bullish momentum. Indicator Observations: MACD Histogram (Background): - The grey histogram indicates bearish momentum, suggesting a potential divergence from the strong price trend. This could be an early warning of a pullback or consolidation. RSI (Gray Line): - RSI remains above 50, confirming overall bullish momentum but does not yet indicate overbought conditions. ADX and DMI (White, Blue, Magenta Lines): - ADX (32.75) reflects moderate trend strength. While the trend is intact, the ADX level suggests it is not overly dominant, leaving room for potential retracement. - DI+ (Blue Line) is still above DI- (Magenta Line), indicating buyers remain in control for now, despite the bearish MACD signal. Key Scenarios to Watch: Bearish Divergence (MACD vs. Price): - The grey MACD histogram reflects bearish momentum that diverges from the bullish price trend. This could signal slowing momentum or a potential short-term pullback. Critical Support at $600: - A pullback to the 600 level could confirm a healthy retracement within the broader uptrend. If this level fails, it could open the door for deeper corrections toward the 50-day MA or lower support zones. Breakout Potential at $607.88: - A strong breakout above the all-time high would likely negate the bearish MACD signal, especially if accompanied by increased volume and rising momentum indicators. Conclusion: - While SPY remains in a strong uptrend near its all-time high, the grey MACD histogram introduces caution, signaling that bearish momentum may be building despite bullish price action. A pullback to $600 is possible and could provide an opportunity for buyers to step in, as long as this support level holds. Trading Implications: For Bulls: Monitor price action at $607.88 for a breakout or wait for a pullback to $600 for potential re-entry. Keep an eye on the MACD histogram to see if bearish momentum persists or reverses. For Bears: Use the bearish MACD signal as an early warning for a potential retracement. A breakdown below $600 could signal deeper downside potential. SPY is at a pivotal moment. While the trend remains intact, the bearish MACD histogram demands caution and suggests the need to carefully watch support levels and momentum changes.
AMEX:SPY
by maybethatguy
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months. So what's my plan? I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly. The real risk is waiting too long Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by InTheMoneyAdam
2
ARKK potential Breakout to 66 - 70s before new year !After an impressive climb, ARKK’s price has paused near $56.21, forming a classic bull flag pattern. This is a textbook signal: a strong initial rally followed by sideways consolidation, often hinting at continuation in the direction of the previous trend. The trendlines reveal the ETF is compressing, building energy like a coiled spring. The moving averages are lined up perfectly for bulls. The short-term yellow moving average is trending well above the long-term blue one, confirming the strength of the upward momentum. This tells us the battle-tested bulls are still in control, with the bears retreating to lower ground. The RSI is sitting at 70.14, signaling strength. While some might see it as "overbought," seasoned traders know this is where momentum players thrive. The ETF’s ability to hold this level without significant pullbacks shows strong buying interest from institutions and retail traders alike. It’s like a crowd gathering behind the archer, ready to release the bowstring. The MACD histogram is glowing green, reinforcing the narrative that buyers are still active. As the histogram bars hold steady, there’s no sign yet of the bears staging a comeback. At this point, ARKK is testing the $58.38 resistance level, a successful breakout could launch ARKK toward its next resistance levels at $61.85 and $67.20, offering a significant upside for traders who act decisively. Target Levels: First target: $61.85 Second target: $67.20 Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss just below $52.32 , the key support zone, to protect against sudden reversals. As an options trader, I’ve entered the following positions: ARKK December 20, 2024, $70 call at a premium of $0.12 (open). ARKK December 20, 2024, $66 call at a premium of $0.24 (open).
AMEX:ARKKLong
by EssieQuantumTrader
SPY Pullback in an Ascending Channel. Dec 6, 2024SPY continues to respect an ascending channel but is currently pulling back from the upper boundary. The price action suggests a potential for further retracement or a bounce from support levels. With increasing selling momentum, tomorrow's session will be key to determining whether SPY maintains its bullish structure or breaks down. Here’s a detailed analysis and playbook for scalpers and swing traders. Market Structure Overview: * Trend: SPY remains in a bullish uptrend, trading within a clean ascending channel. The pullback, however, suggests short-term weakness. * Current Price Action: * The price has dropped below $606.22 and is heading toward the midline of the channel. * Selling volume is increasing, signaling bearish momentum in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance: * $608.48: Immediate resistance at the recent high. * $612: Upper channel boundary, acting as strong resistance. * Support: * $602.43: First level of support, aligned with previous consolidation. * $597.32: Major horizontal support and the lower boundary of the channel. * $594.15: Critical support level if the channel breaks down. Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks: * Liquidity Zones: * Significant liquidity is below $602.43, with stops likely clustered near $600-$598. * Order Blocks: * Bullish OB: Between $597-$600, aligning with the lower channel boundary. * Bearish OB: Near $608-$610, where selling pressure has emerged. MACD & Volume Analysis: * MACD: Shows bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating potential for further downside. * Volume: Selling volume is increasing, confirming the pullback, but watch for volume spikes near key support zones. My Thoughts on Tomorrow’s Direction: Tomorrow’s session will depend heavily on how SPY interacts with the $602-$597 support zone. Here’s what I expect: 1. Bullish Scenario: * If SPY holds above $602 and we see buying volume during the pre-market or early trading session, expect a bounce back toward $606-$608. A break above $608 could lead to a retest of the $612 upper channel resistance. * Catalysts such as positive economic data or strong tech sector performance could trigger this move. 2. Bearish Scenario: * If SPY fails to hold $602 and breaks below $600, we could see accelerated selling toward $597 and potentially $594. * Watch for increasing bearish volume and rejection near $602 on intraday tests to confirm a further move lower. 3. Key Indicator to Watch: * Volume: Rising bullish volume near $602 would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, increasing bearish volume below $602 could confirm further downside. Scalping Strategy: * Entry: * Long scalps at $602-$603 if the price shows signs of holding the support level. * Short scalps at $606-$608 if price rejects resistance again. * Exit: * For longs, take profits near $605-$606. * For shorts, target $600-$598. * Stop-Loss: * For longs: Below $600. * For shorts: Above $608.50. Swing Trading Strategy: * Bullish Play: * Wait for a bounce at $597-$600 support zone and enter long. Target $608, then $612 if momentum resumes. * Bearish Play: * If SPY fails to reclaim $606 convincingly, consider shorting with targets at $597 or lower. * Stop-Loss: * For longs: Below $597. * For shorts: Above $608. Game Plan for SPY Trading: 1. Pre-Market Prep: * Monitor overnight futures to gauge sentiment. * Mark $606 (resistance) and $597 (support) for intraday reactions. 2. Market Open Strategy: * Observe the first 15-30 minutes to confirm direction. * Look for rejection or bounce at key levels before entering trades. 3. Intraday Execution: * Use the ascending channel to guide entries and exits. * Keep a close eye on volume spikes for confirmation. 4. End of Day: * Close intraday positions and reassess swing setups based on the closing structure. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY, QQQ and a bit of BTC Hey guys, I haven't been posting much this year and its mostly because I hate bull markets haha. My resolution for new years is to be more engaged next year. In this post I am just going over my thoughts and analysis for the short term on the week. My EOY outlook is pretty much a continuation to the upside. January will be the make or break month. We really should see selling starting then. But we can reassess it when January comes around. Sorry for the rambling and hopefully you find this somewhat helpful. Feel free to leave your questions below and as always, safe trades!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Harami-Inside DayToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay rather flat and likely close within yesterday's body range. I'm not expecting a lot of price action today - although we could see a high/low range outside of yesterday's body range. Gold and Silver are struggling to find support and rally from recent lows. The US Dollar's move back below 106 is positive for metals. But I urge traders to stay very cautious until they see a clear bullish breakaway pattern in metals. I've been trying to tell everyone for 3+ weeks that the markets typically go a bit WONKY after a big election process. This year, Trump's victory was a big surprise for many, and I'm confident traders are attempting to avoid risks by staying away from making big moves before the end of the year. Bitcoin fell back below $100k again and I believe BTCUSD could be setting up a very large Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we may see Bitcoin fall to GETTEX:82K (possibly $72k) as the EPP pattern continues. It is very early in this EPP price structure, but ultimately, the EPP either continues to play out or invalidates. So, one way or another, we will either see a move down to GETTEX:82K (or below) or a rally move breaking above the $103k highs. Again, I expect a very flat day for the SPY/QQQ. Stay safe. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
$TLT The ReprieveNASDAQ:TLT has currently been granted a stay of execution as the relief rally kicks in. On the daily we can see clear signs of a bull flag pattern with upper level targets at the gaps of 95, 96, and 98$. Currently having turned green on the Bull/Bear Indicator, this little yield is getting ready to slaughter bears in the short term and return zombified gains. Get it while its good, the CCI is printing a high probability long. Once price action returns to a discount level, the sell off may yet continue. H8ters Beware. I thought I saw your mom in here..
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Midgar-
SpyTagging upper boundary here near 608-610... Smaller time frame and you'll see the rising wedge here spy has been trading inside last week. The wedge narrowness is responsible for the chop melt up... I'm expecting a break down either tomorrow on Job numbers or Monday Take in the overbought conditions and I spy should pullback to close gap at 598 minimum but keep in mind of 603 gap first. Stop losses over 610 This melt up this early was weird. Usually Christmas rally happens 3rd or 4th week of Dec. Bigger picture is this We are in a wedge on spy but I'm starting to wonder do they drag price out inside this range for the rest of the year?
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
8