Increases in unemployment + yield curve disinversions + SPYIncreases in unemployment + yield curve disinversions have led to lower equity markets
Government bonds
10 Yr Yield-100/200 monthly SMA cross is inevitabThe crossing of the 100 SMA ABOVE the 200 SMA on the monthly 10 year yield is inevitable...it will cross shortly no matter what rates do from here on out...even if they declined to 2% tomorrow.
What does this mean...IMO it means longer term lending rates will remain higher than people/corporations are used to seeing over the last 20 years. The prices we are seeing today will more than likely be what we will continue to see over the next 7-10 years; at the very least.
As you can see from the above chart, the 100 SMA crossed BELOW the 200 SMA on the monthly in 1990 and we all know what happened after that cross...we ended up being in a declining interest rate environment from 1984-2020.
We are now in either a longer term increasing interest rate environment or a stagnant one at best.
At this point we know the Fed is "thinking" about lowering short term rates but they are no where near a fierce rate cutting trajectory in the near term. Therefore, in order to project some relatively near term SMA's, I used the "SMA prediction" that @vladimir.kamba created to project out the likely path the SMA's may take in the near term. See link below (green lines) for the projected SMA's.
If the past in any indiction of the future...after the cross happened in 1990 rates were never able to touch the 200 SMA until 2018 (28 years later). The 200 SMA has flatted out and is projected to turn slightly up; which it has not done since the 1950's...Woah!!!
The point of this post...get your finances in order to anticipate this new rate environment! Those people or company's that refinanced at really low rates BUT used short term financing must anticipate refinancing those loans at much higher rates and/or should pay them off if possible. Do not count on rates going back to where they were over the last 20 years.
Could we be transitioning back to a period of time where "savers" are rewarded? Could that be why Warren Buffett has dramatically increased the cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway to around 25% of the total portfolio?
10YR Treasury 8-1410YR Treasury 8-14
If the 10 YR can close below that 3.801% level tomorrow the mortgage world will be back in business!!!
- Cody Inman
US10Y: 14 AUG, 2024US Bonds 10 YR Yield: 14 AUG, 2024 - 4H Chart
© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
10 YR Yields, the main trend is bearish. Currently wave (C)-orange is unfolding to push lower.
Wave ((iv))-navy has just completed at 4.022%, and wave ((v))-navy is unfolding to push lower, targeting the immediate target at 3.676%. While price must remain below 4.022% to maintain this view.
Disinversion Surprise on CPI Day?Could the 10's and 2's yield inversion finally rollover tomorrow back into normal territory ? MACD and basic patterns suggest no, but fundamentals will prevail. If CPI comes in hot, inversion likely continues, if CPI continues to cool as it has been for months, the inversion could finally run its course tomorrow morning
US10Y-US02Y - Bond Yield Curve AnalysisWorth noticing that the bond yield curve did very briefly push above 0 with a very whipsawing spike.
This happened at the S&P selling climax low.
And it does look like we will see a real move up and through the 0 point either soon or in the not too distant future.
Which in tandem will see increasing unemployment.
And that apparently is a clue that recession is in the pipeline.
And we often see a stock crash in that area.
That said, the alignment with stock indexes crashing is fairly loose.
Notice that the yield curve pushed through the 0 point almost 600 days before the crash happened.
Thats more than enough time for the crypto cycle to finish and the opportunity to cash out taken.
Then if a crash does happen as the crypto cycle ends, it would be the ideal outcome.
As I have said; I think everything aligns because this is all organised, orchestrated and not at all random.
But lets see, this is a little warning of danger here ⚠️.
Not advice.
BUND-STREET SMART PLAY BY lINDA RASCHKE2/3YR FCL: Bund Made First close below the Sma, on 2 and 3 Year time frame hence expecting a Bullish retracement
15/16M:RTM: This a Consolidation Pattern, formed my simple or complex consolidation both on 15 and 16 Month Time frames
8M:HOLY GRAIL: This a Retracement formed to the EMA after close off the kelner, See street smart by Linda.
Note that 6 Months is Ranging below the Range of 2-3 Year First close candle, however small time frames are playing off the Bullish trend
1w" Extended Rund
2days, extended Run, expecting Bullish trend
Fed Watch Tool Target Rates on the US 10 YOn this graph, we see the current priced in Interest Rates of the FED Watch Tool in compare to the US 10 Year Treasuries. We can clearly identify by how much the market is frontrunning and at what pace the market believes the Interest Rates will decline.
The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins.
I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock.
Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair.
As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
US 10Y TREASURY: easing with rate cutsTwo weeks ago markets reacted to surprising jobs data in the US, however, the posted ISM Services PMI on Monday put a dose of relaxation among market participants. Data showed that the US is clearly not in a recession and that, at least, the services sector is doing fine at this moment. All financial markets were traded in a positive manner during the previous week, resetting their sentiment to the previous path. The US Treasuries also re-adjusted during the week, in a move from 3.7% reached on a Monday, till 4.0% reached on Friday. The 10Y benchmark is finishing the week at the level of 3.94%.
Regardless of a positive come-back and re-assessment of the current state of the US economy, the market nervousness might continue in the coming period. It should be considered that the US inflation data and the retail sales for July will be published in a week ahead, where some increased volatility might be possible for one more time. At the current stage, the market is testing the 4.0% level, however, there is some probability for another drop in the week ahead. The level of 3.9%, eventually 3.8% might be tested. The move above 4.0% is unlikely at this moment.
US05Y Long but wait 3%now its break a major support and retesting it at 3.8% now its time to fall to 3% then fly back to 7.6%
the move from 3.8 to 3 its important time all us stock going to raise before the massive drop .
this my idea its not a financial advice .
Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates.
Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom.
Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation?
Is the bond market pricing in a recession?
I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness.
Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper.
This drives the disinflationary narrative.
I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
Members Daily Analysis Markets move higher, despite no participation from MSFT.
NVDA could rally into earnings.
IWM & KRE looking bearish.
Yield curve still inverted with lower high rejection.
SPY outperforming QQQ
Yield ChartThis chart tracks U.S. Treasury yields for 2-year (blue), 10-year (white), and 30-year (orange) bonds, along with the yield spread (green) between the 10-year and 2-year bonds. A positive spread suggests a normal yield curve and economic growth, while a negative spread (inversion) often signals a potential recession.
US 2-Year T-NoteHey Traders
We have US 2-Year T-Note, all my weekly fundamentals are showing a nice drop from from supply zone bounced out and is looking strong to sell down, I will be waiting for a pullback to my sell limit marked off on chart.
When I am lining up a set up I always use the daily TF to place a sell limit or buy limit from supply zone or demand zone.
Please like comment and follow cheers
This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
Rate Cut? Big Disappointmenting, Unlikely!US10Y Yield Drama: The US 10-Year Yield has been on a rollercoaster—recently dipping, then bouncing back like it’s trying to make up its mind. But let’s be real, being around 4% isn't exactly an invitation to rate cuts.
History’s Not on Your Side:
Sure, the Fed has cut rates before without a crash, but that was when inflation wasn't hanging around like an uninvited guest.
Remember 1998 or 2001? Yeah, those were different times. Now, we've got inflation breathing down our necks.
What’s Really Going On:
This yield isn’t breaking any new ground—bouncing between 4.5% and 3.5% like a broken record.
Everyone’s screaming about an inverted yield curve, but hey, what else is new? We’ve been hearing recession alarms for a while now, and still, no rate-cut savior.
Fed’s Big Non-Move:
The Fed's been singing the same old tune—committed to that elusive 2% inflation target like it’s a sacred mission. They’re not about to abandon ship just because the market’s getting a little choppy.
Meanwhile, Japan hit the reverse button on their rate hike decision. The markets caught their breath, and we’ve already seen some solid “buy the dip” action. Panic averted—for now.
Even with the VIX spiking from all the fear trades, don’t be surprised if it calms down soon. The market’s got a short memory, and we’re likely headed for a higher high once this storm passes.
Cutting rates now would be like pouring gasoline on a fire and hoping for rain. Not happening.
Bottom Line: The US10Y might be teasing you with the idea of a rate cut in September, but don’t hold your breath. The Fed’s playing hard to get, and unless the economy really goes south, they will not lower the interest rates.
Reversion Zones:
Being back to 4% is a very high probability
4.35% will be soon after
Critical Resistance Ahead for US 10-Year Yield: Key LevelsWe've observed an impressive corrective rebound in the US 10-year yield chart. However, we are now approaching a significant resistance zone between 4.06% and 4.09%. This area marks the point where the yield previously broke out of its channel, aligning with the highs seen in March and July of 2023. Additionally, this zone represents the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline from the April 2024 peak to the August low. With this confluence of resistance levels, we will be closely monitoring for any signs of failure.
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Pullback to the support line, then dumpMy main case scenario: 10Y raising up with a zigzag to the old support line, tag in October with MOVE and VIX screaming panic, and the drop with anger just before the US elections. At the same time, SPX hitting the 4500 level
Inverted Yield curve re-inversion vs SPYSince 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
Yield curve re-inversion vs GoldAs the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months.
Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% Soon
The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further.
A very strong resistance area over the previous weeks is found near 4.48% dating back almost 1 month
Also considering overall market expectations, US CPI data on Thursday could help this bearish move.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Bearish Yields Can Send USDollar Lower10Y US Yields are falling impulsively within wave C as expected after we noticed sharp leg down into wave A, followed by a corrective rally in wave B. So, there can be now space even down to the former wave 4 area at 3.25%. If we consider a positive correlation with USdollar Index – DXY, then USD can face more weakness. Is DXY trying to break bearish triangle?
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon.
All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions.
I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown.
The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now.
Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
