Ym
Dow Jones Long-term Megaphone, Limit Reached to the TickOn both the long-term (weekly and monthly) S&P 500 chart and here with the Dow monthly chart, one can see a large megaphone structure or broadening pattern. In both cases, the Fed balance sheet reversal and then repo-induced mania of last year created an overthrow. On the S&P 500 megaphone, this bear market rally culminated in a small overthrow again, but that index now sits once again inside that structure.
With the Dow, on the other hand, the rally came to an abrupt halt as it found resistance at that structure and subsequently retreated from it, to the tick. In this chart, it is forming a very strong, long-wick rejection candle.
I do believe we will be making our way to the bottom channel once again. We will likely find some support there, but I believe it will then fall out of the structure altogether, the common conclusion of a pattern like this.
Piercing of 15 Min DownTrend 61.8% Line - Sell ES & YM on BounceMarkets move counter intuitively . . . The best lesson I ever recieved from a market watcher was when a daily or 15 minute trend pierces the 61.8% line. At some point, it’s only a matter of time, where that whole move will the retraced, in order to provide the opposite part with it’s owntest, that in turn, they will need to respond too. We had a minor selloff over the last week and half. That was responded to by the bulls, who have put together a good run from the lows. However, in early morning Asian action, we have pierced this 61.8% downtrend fib line. So, I’m calling my shot here. This market will reverse and will have to endure undergo it’s own retracement, testing the resolve of bulls in the face the highest unemployment numbers this country (world) has ever seen. The market is priced even more perfect than before, with earnings so uncertain, and stocks just ever so slightly down 15-17%, Nasdaq back to break even on the year, there is no way to justify any of this. So, mark it down. Sell now.
EUROPE wanted their chance to short ES overnight The 50% HWB short still held and was retested in Europe. Markets double top for a few reasons, not the least of which is that Europe wants their chance to sell major tops. Overnight, they took it up to the 2888 level. I expect that level to hold as we begin to sell in earnest today.