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ES - Chopping @ HighsES SPY SPX preparing for a substantial Drop. We are anticipating 2 thrusts lower towards the 200SMA. It's been well over one year since we've seen a test of this level. For now, we are simply seeing further distribution on low volumes. A number of Divergences will complete this week after trading into the UTL (Upper Trend Line) and bring about the correction. Trading to and through the 50SMA will confirm the larger trade lower. Complacency is at higher than usual levels. The BULLs don't see this going down, not believing it can drop. The BEARs lose hope as they have been repeatedly beaten. Perfect environment... for those of us waiting for Fills at out levels. Empire State Manufacturing simply confirms what we have suggested for some time - Global Economic Activity is collapsing. There should be a dramatic drop soon, followed by a reversal to New All Time Highs. May profits be yours, they are here for the taking. Patience, it's here. 3588 is the must hold level, 3798 is our preferred level. roughly 3600-3800 is the desired Target Range.
CME_MINI:ES2!Short
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the following Positions: VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08 Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06. VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K ______________________________________________________________ SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780 Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780 AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88 GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022 Collar at 195 Strike out through November. __________________________________________________ Financials ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES will catch the head fake for entry. Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket, OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY. Powell - Still Thinking about... *Clarida - Taper could begin later this year Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view *Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September *Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October *Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH. Events: ALL BOG Members voted for/supported: Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021 $1 Trillion CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern. Rotations are short lived. FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH is forced higher on decreasing Volumes. We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move higher. The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020. Precisely the same pattern of Distribution. Every throw over is a SELL imho. Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate. Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline. Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins. Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake. Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November, prior to new ATHs. The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move quickly to new all time highs into 2022. The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last for more than a few months. MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT. FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market, instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products are failing. It is reminiscent of 2004. Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
UShort
by HK_L61
NQ - How many Taps @ 15170 are requiredTECH is a messy trade, the APEs, Fanbios and Degenerate Gamblers fail to see the structure, instead preferring to tout ATH after ATH. Irrelevant with respect to the larger picture which has clearly formed. The TECH Equities operate on Balance, TSLA is attempting to force a fill that requires the 780s to trade. Overlapping rotation from high to low end of balance. Consolidation range for break is the Market Depth, there are subtle nuances which clearly show the structure of the Distribution. It does not indicate CONfidence nor steady... tight ranges of push/pull demonstrate a LACK of CONFidence. TSLA remains a prime example of what's wrong with Market Structure. How is Tesla making new highs? Traders are choosing to ignore placing the wrong trade at the wrong time. Decisions are being made the Level is Long and yet the majority of the Volume is symmetric and small. The Profile is Long for a breakout. The Balance is leading to excess. It is as plain as day, right in the charts and OBV. Tesla is simply exhibiting exactly the same setup as the NQ. When the strafing begins, the Targets are always the opposing measured move back to balance. "The Markets will keep going up until the FED does something absolute." Potentially, but not always. This is what the Market Structure is exhibiting. Momentum Buyers chasing big green bars... This never ends well. Sellers are not running out of Bullets, they are patiently buying time to participate in the reversal of VOL CRUSH. This has happened time and again prior to key moves in prior quick, dramatic corrections. A look above, a head fake and fail. The Potential is extreme. D I S T R I B U T I O N
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
4
$3.5 Trillion in "Build Back Better" No sooner had the $1.5 Trillion Infrastructure in free cheese been passed for the Kleptocrats and they begin shoving another $3.5 Trillion Green Agenda. Adding to Inflation worries while Global Supplies of the "Things we need" as coming up well short. Bonds - Perhaps the CPI is peaking here at 5% Equities - Inflation isn't Transitory Metals - We don't get fooled again, yet you did Energy - The best thing to ever happen to Crude Oil, the Biden Admin Here's the clue - Inflation trade is OUTPERFORMING.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by HK_L61
NQ - One Enormous Range / ES YM RTY VIX Inversions.TECH continues to hold for now. Large Divergences on the Daily TF have yet to take hold. The Apex of the ascending wedge completes @ ~ 15323 inching its way towards our PO @ 15363. Equities outside of TECH can rise due to financial components and favorable rate environments for Banks. NQ Bank a solid indicator. ES RTY and YM are finding footing into higher targets for YM - 35,900 and 36,700. NQ would underperform. The VIX Is quickly moving to its lower boundaries down to 12.30 - 15.47 on the Daily. Lots of naysayers to this, yet here we are. Interesting times, trade safe.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Short Term Support AreaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the rally from June 21 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from June 21 low, wave 1 ended at 34975 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 33624. Index has resumed higher in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 34034 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 33843. Index resumes higher again in wave (iii) towards 34789 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 34557. Final leg higher wave (v) of ((i)) ended at 35082. Wave ((ii)) pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 34602 and rally in wave (x) ended at 35009. Expect wave (y) to end at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (w) towards 34217 – 34521 blue box area. Index should then find buyers at the blue box area for further upside or 3 waves rally at least. Near term, as far as wave 2 pivot on July 20 low at 33624 stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX Trend. A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long DX Trade which Specs chased is failing. FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme. Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish. Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations for the move higher was not met. _________________________________________________________________ *** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes. NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining. August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated. The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted. We remain Neutral into NFP.
FRED:NPPTTL
by HK_L61
1
A50 - China Contracting - Personal Consumption DecliningAs Kuh Kuh Cathy Woods finds God and re-discovers "Faith" in investing - her flock discovers the very same religious experience. Faith in Central Banks ability to backstop Markets is accelerating. The phenomena is not limited to TECH, it is global and it has expanded to every Capital Stock - Real Estate, Equities, Commodities and Bonds. Crypto and the Metals Complex are the laggards. This brand of unprecedented Mania has begun its Zenith Phase. It is well beyond the irrational Mania of the DotCom Mania, well beyond. Buy buy, buy... Sellers and Intelligent observers are mocked for their plaintiff wails of objection. Clearly there is an immense danger to this, one which will eventually present itself in the near future, until then the BBB Herd will expend all the Capital Energy they can and then move to Leverage via increased Margin. Margin as a percentage of Capital Stock for Equity is frankly minimal so there remains intense upside pressure for those who begin to cheer their own successes believing higher prices are expected. Caution for Sellers here as this can become far more distended. We will see how the updated Levels for NQ ES YM trade, Friday all Futures Indices hit their Extension Targets. Earnings is dead ahead and INTC gave a clear warning, it was not heeded as "Faith" itself and its followers pressed their luck. We anticipate this to continue after the July 21st reversal period was immediately snapped up 2X. Dangerous times, Good Luck and Trade Safe.
OANDA:CN50USD
by HK_L61
1
PANIC Ahead - August into OctoberThere is far more to "markets" than Charts. Risks appear as IF unknown when all eyes are focused upon Charts - this has been demonstrated time and again. Yet it remains mostly ignored. There are immense Risks to the Equity Complex. Today is a Prime Example of Wall Street getting its fills for the upcoming correction - it will be swift, violent and decidedly nasty. Buy the Dip is an almost religious, cult like adherence. This too shall pass. We anticipate a move to 200 EMAs happening with extreme swiftness. Timing it will be folly, it is best to begin positioning for it as Geo Political Risk has not been this high in years. Good Luck and may you prosper immensely in this next decline.
FRED:T10YIEShort
by HK_L61
1
BTC - Press Your LuckThe Potential for a Squeeze in BitCoin is rising. 30,000 lets go and Sellers will indeed press their luck should it fail. Selling throughout the EU Session has gained momentum as the VIX broke it's UTL by 4 Ticks. We had issued a cautious note on Indices into July 20-22, 2021 as tensions were beginning to mount in the South China Sea. RTY has failed IT Support, ES Fails at 4251, YM 34,000 - NQ 14313.50. CCRV has been indicating a Pullback in the Commodity Complex as the Curve appears to be heading South once again. Presently, we are anticipating a minor retracement at some point today, perhaps when the EU Session closes up into 11:30AM EST. Should Selling continue unabated, we anticipate BRC losing 30K this week and heading to out open Target of 24955. 36,000 should contain any ST Squeeze as the Sell Side of the BTC trade is becoming crowded. NG has been a stellar counter-trend trade to CL, $4 appears to be in play. Remembering when NG traded from $1 to $21 - brings back memories. OGZPY (Gazprom) would continue its trend to $20 over the longer term time horizon. The VIX has made a new high just now and is now targeting the 22.75 Level. It's going to be a sporty day indeed, right on time :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by HK_L61
3
today CPI news show inflation is terrible US 10 year yield start fly up too , inflation each second can 5% crash market , we still dont see buy here (green arrow powerful place for buy with sl=80 and (hold 10-15 day) exactly now , we have sell signal on over pattern finder robot on 1 hour chart ! prnt.sc advice= until fibo 61%(red color on chart) looking for sell but with SL and low size ....technical say dow can see 32600 ,big trend line (buylimit place) dont forget ,world best analyzers have 4 mistake to 6 true , so dont forget here in trade 100% is imposible,for this pro trader put SL and use low size good luck
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by ramin_trader2006
2
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Ready for New All-Time HighShort term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) shows the rally from June 21, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from June 21 low, wave 1 ended at 34755 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 34004. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 34241, rally in wave ((b)) ended at 34595, and final leg lower wave ((c)) ended at 34006. This completed wave 2 in higher degree. Index has broken above wave 1 at 34755, suggesting the next leg higher in wave 3 has started. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 34375, and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 34140. Index resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 34796, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 34548. Expect Index to soon end wave (v) which should also complete wave ((i)). It then should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from July 8 low before the rally resumes. Near term, dips is expected to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against July 8 low (34006) for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
stochastic and AC go to sell on dow why sell? on CASH PHISICAL DOW NYSE we have big ,powerful open gap in down in other side see AC and stoch on 4hour chart , for coming monday to wednesday dow must see min fibo extention (projection) 61% (predict= wide zigzag days will comes) alert= if dow break red trendline can crash advice =looking for buy on above green arrow specialy 33600 is powwrful place for buy and hold for fair analyse ,i dont have any open order on dow (i am dax trader from 2006, on real money i only trade dax ,however i monitor dow from frist days ) good luck , dont forget use lowest size and put sl on low/high (or 80 point)
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by ramin_trader2006