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SP500 (SPX, SPY, ES) - Move UP Likely [Friday 9/10/21]It looks like SP500 dropped all the way into the Support Zone. We should get a move back up from here. Once again, as long as we stay in this Sideways Market condition, we don't have any real strength or momentum. We may stay inside here over the next week or so. We will likely move UP from here but I can't say for sure we will create an ATH on this move up. It depends on how we test the prior ATH. Will be watching...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TraderFromTheNorth
Dow Futures (YM): A Double Three Correction Is Taking PlaceShort-term Elliott wave view in Dow Futures ( YM) suggests that the decline from the August 16 high is unfolding as Elliott wave double three structure in a bigger wave ((4)) pullback. Down from there, the decline to $33628 low ended wave (W) in a lesser degree double three structure. Up from there, the wave (X) bounce unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at $34236 high. Wave B pullback ended at $33638 low and wave C ended in 5 waves structure at $34938 high thus completed wave (X) bounce. Below from there, the decline is unfolding as a lesser degree zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at $34121 low. Wave ((b)) ended in 3 swings at a $34554 high. While wave ((c)) is expected to end in between $33686- $33177 area lower. To complete the wave W lower & see a 3 wave recovery in wave X before further downside is seen. Near-term, as far as a pivot from $34938 high stays intact we expect short-term bounces to fail to look for a $32867- $31590 target area lower before the decline from peak gets mature & resume the larger trend.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P500 [ES, SPY, SPX] - Sideways Ranging Market Until we break out of this range, we may not get many nice move days. This could last all week and possibly go into next week. However, once we broke out above or below this range... we should get some really nice big moves. Until then, I'm just going to tread lightly and practice more patience. Always know what market conditions are ideal for your trading strategy and what market conditions are not. I'm a trend trader, so I prefer trending markets over sideways markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TraderFromTheNorth
2
NQ - ES YM RTY ZN TLT / Final Commentary - 10/7/2021 Macro Observations As the Global Economy continues to weaken, DEBT is beginning to weigh heavily on the same. Inflations have many Vectors - Monetary, Fiscal, and Confidence. Throughout the history of the United States, the "Debt Ceiling" has always been a Glass Roof. At present, decades of abuse since the 1980s have come home to roost. The result of multiple stimulus measures aimed at combating the pandemic's economic impact... Congress will run a budgetary shortfall this year equivalent to 13.4% of GDP or approximately $3.1 Trillion. It is axiomatic, Fiscal and Monetary Policies have failed. The crisis will continue to worsen over the coming years, 2022 it will reach its zenith and fail in the most unimaginable ways. Confidence is nearing all-time lows. A Panic is in the air within the "Investing Complex" - it has just begun for Retail Investors. Buy the Dip, the FED has a Put under the Equities Markets is slowly, ever so slowly giving way to the recognition, All is not at all well. The "Everything Must Go Sale" is gaining momentum. And by "everything" - we, indeed, mean everything for reasons which have been discussed repeatedly here within this sliver of TV. The Boat will tip, list, and capsize into 2022, for now, a healthy correction is ahead as indicated. Higher rates are axiomatic, the Federal Reserve will begin to move further into the Shadows with its Operations. Dark Pools will continue to position into the Sell. It won't be The End, it will, however, "feel" like it. There will be one last high to put bring an end to the Longest Bull Market in History. That will be THE END. For now, Buckle up, the Sportiness is ON. ______________________________________________________________________________________ NQ ES YM RTY ZN TLT The Nasdaq chart above illustrates the larger Daily Price Objective. How it gets there will be quick and dirty, a rather nasty affair as reality sets in, takes hold and dumps the sordid mess on its collective head. Whether or not there is a consolidation zone prior to the large DUMP, will depend upon Distribution patterns and the Budget news cycle as well as the middle of the UST Curve, namely the 10 Year Note. It is not a no-mans land, but the very inflection point on the Yield Curve. It is overdue, for reasons we have covered repeatedly. Over and over and over to the point, they no longer bare repeating. Simply review the past several months of commentary to EDU yourself. We have grown wary of rehashing our Thesis. It has been proven correct and is now in Trade. It takes time to form a top, it is a process until it becomes an event. The Technical Conditions have been growing increasingly weak for several months. 3x and 4x Divergences have been building on Larger timeframes and are now beginning to assert themselves. It will remain choppy to Down and as October unfolds, the larger Sell will arrive. The ES & YM will follow the NQ, the YM will remain the Laggard as will RTY until rotational failure will occur. It is best to observe the Weekly and Monthly TF's there for levels. We believe the 200SMAs, as well, the 400SMAs come into play in October, no later than November. One fairly significant cleansing of Speculative Juices among the Retail Investing Herd. ZN & TLT, again, for reasons we have covered repeatedly are in a confirmed SELL. We believe the 10 Year Note Yield will see new highs, the ROCs we noted are gaining immense traction. An explosive move higher is unfolding. 139s will print on TLT, ZN could dive well into the 120s. Debt Obligations will demand higher rates at a time when the DEBT edifice itself is going to be difficult to string together. Pushing on a string comes to mind. Conventional Correlations are DOA, insisting they are functioning is simply ignoring reality. Yesterday is today shall be tomorrow... best of luck to you in this Dogma. Lagarde and Powell both speak this morning, furthering the All Digital agenda. We will be absent for a number of trading Sessions as we relocate our arrangements over the coming days. Hopefully, to return no later than October 7th. Be well - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
23
YM - Macro CommentaryEvergrande's exposure is $300Billion, US Institutions admit to $20Billion in Direct exposure. Total exposure is being hidden in Passive Funds. Does not matter, there are far larger issues. China will bail out Domestics... Sovereigns... not so much. Next. Distractions are always the Hero's welcome. ______________________________________________________________________________ On to the Important items which require attention. The Federal Reserve released a passive Statement published yesterday in a Summary Post below. What bares attention: 2024 became 2023, which turned into late 2022 and presently it appears one of two events is well underway. 1. November FED Meeting will announce Taper, which is well underway via the US Treasury as well as the FED. The Real ISSUE is - do they begin immediately or announce a later date of implementation - 5 weeks from now, the Bigger Taper will be announced as the FED clearly indicated a far more aggressive taper within 7 Months, concluding in MAY/JUNE 2022. This, as opposed to the usual 12/13 Month schedule of prior Tapering. 2. Once, the Tapering is done, Interest Rates will begin to be lifted. The topping process for the Indicies will manage to Blow off into Final 5/5 HIghs. For the ES by example - 5000. Within the next 4 to 5 weeks we should see an aggressive SELL take the Equities Complex into the Lows. These Objectives remain between the 200-400SMAs. For the ES - 3872.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
3
VIX - Daily Contract Range ( NQ ES YM )The VIX broke its .500 by 2 Ticks to pull back towards its 22.25 Support Level. VXN, no different, the pullback towards its Support from the Measure move of the GAP to the Highs. The indices will complete their retracement measured moves ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, entirely normal after yesterday's extremely large Volume Sells. We anticipated a Retracement back up ahead of the FOMC. It is normal and useful as the SELL Fills in the DOM await. Price will move to its 200SMA after this retracement is complete. The Die as they say is cast for Lower Prices, as we have indicated the 200SMAs will not hold but create a failure towards the 400SMAs. _________________________________________________________________________ NQ - Daily Range 14807 - 15708 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 15258 15364 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 12754 _________________________________________________________________________ ES - Daily Range 4294 - 1550 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 4421 4452 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 3982 _________________________________________________________________________ YM - Daily Range 33478 - 35548 The retracement Levels for SELL Fills: 34512 34753 Gap Fill Open The Objective is 28.200 to 31,000 ________________________________________________________________________ Summary Market Structure observations proved to be correct. The Trade Plan was executed and closed successfully. The Markets are weakening and moving to their 200SMAs, we do not anticipate this the level will hold but move lower towards the 400SMAs. Divergences that had been building for several months came to pass. 3x and 4x divergences take time to resolve, we are nowhere near this in time. As this unfolds it will fool a great many who have been trained to BTD. Inexperienced Traders are now touting Dow 37.000. Not going to happen, Price has a great deal of work in a Southerly Range. The Flash Crash began and ended yesterday. It will be back in force again shortly. Creating Lower Lows. We will see where the Backtest attempts to gain its FILL. The trendline or the Gaps above. There is no Gap and Trap, our indicators remain Bearish. Pirce has failed the Momentum Line. The 100 SMAs were tested, for now, the 50SMAs could be backtested with an overthrow. ROC's should return to their respective Centerlines @ 0. Micro Counts completed, a reversal is to be anticipated. _______________________________________________________________________________ Any retracement higher will be met with further and intensifying SELLS. "Buy the Dip" will be crushed again, after this retracement. The VIX remains the Guide. Trade Safe and Prosperous. - HK
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
12
YM - 31K remains ObjectiveThe larger issue will be whether or Not they trap SELLERs looking for the Monthly Gap Fill @ 28.2K. The DOW has been weak on a realtive Basis given the 34053 has Broken, this was important Support @ Monthly. Support lies at the 34139 level on the Weekly closing basis. This will imbue SELLERs as technical support is @ 33120 followed by 31848. The channel would have to give way to imply a Flash Crash continues, it has been weak support for now. Real LT Support is at the 28,200 to 31,000 levels, a wider range should the Gap Fill on the Monthly basis be in Trade. It remains, far too early to provide a solid indication and trapping Gap Fill traders would be ideal for a sharp reversal. Again, far too early to indicate, but trade plans have worked well, we do not want to overstay our welcome as these Objectives come into Trade. Privately to PB we indicated the Flash Crash would occur this week, it was left out of the Public Domain for obvious reasons, good to see it come together. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
14
ES - When in doubt / Zoom OutThe ES MONTHLY Range is enormous, we see 1/5 ending @ 3588, 2/5 Ranged for less than 2 months prior to lifting off unimpeded for 7 Months. Month 8 did make a new high, although the 26 year probability of it holding and closing over is a low probability event as we indicated in early August. Many trading Paradigms have been tested and rejected within the Shorter Duration Timeframes. From my POV, the largest indication was the Break Away Gap in the DOW (YM) off 28,200. this had never occurred before - the anomoly at this level informed Traders, the Federal Reserve went ALL IN. And they did - M2 began an unprecedented move higher. The Longest Bull Market in History is within its Death Throes... the violence within Price will become even more extreme as we advance to the larger Bear Market ahead into 2022 after completing 5/5. It's what happens in between which should be of concern - what arrives thereafter is well beyond mere mortals ability to effect change. It will, no doubt in my mind alter Humanity itself in ways most all ill-prepared to conceieve. The United States has been successful in Exporting its "Culture" for decades, this too shall pass. Pride will give way to hubris at some point, by then it will be far too late to affect any menaingful change until a more rational generation takes up the challenge... perhaps. Many will simply give up. Between now and then, a great deal can occur. Death throes are violent affairs. The "Disclaimer" should read something like this: Price tends to behave irrationally within the current environment. All one can do is read the proverbial Tea Leaves - of which there are thousands... We are now trading the "Confidence Cycle" and we see how that collapsed in August. It is more akin to the large vessel in Harbor, slow to turn, methodical and not without challenges. Quite frequently over the past year, when we see Price dip-in to the 50SMA we see a violent rejection and retracement. We saw this 9 Days ago when the FED posted $12B in Coupon purchases to defend the Hourly "Death Cross' - it did not stick, but provided the Higher FIll for Wall Street and its friends only to move lower again. it is when we begin moving Down in rapid Extensions, out of Measured Moves... this is when the Indicies can become angry for a reversal. This is ahead into October. As noted in prior posts on several Timeframes from 15min, 4Hr, Weekly and now Monthly... we can devise a Trade Plan based upon entry into the larger Trend (Down) with the practical and only set of tools we have - Price/Data/Senitment. Drawdowns will be required, but will be rewarded. We see this in Bonds, patience... patience and furher patience. Setups requie time, money and patience. The Federal Reserve will do what it will to manage Price in to follow suit of the Data and Sentiment. We simply Obey, as this, again... is well out of our control. It's very Orwellian, dystopian and many other unseemly Nouns, Adjectives and Adverbs... those are for History to pen and stroke. The 4400 Level will be extreme in it's importance as should Price Fail within the 15min Falling Wedge, we can see the 100SMA being challenged next - the issue is every time this has cocurred, we have seen a reversal to defend the Uptrend. We are no Longer in an Uptrend. Anything can and will happen, we will need to be keen observers of a number of indications which were outlined in prior posts this weekend. There is no easy answer, none. Price will tell us evrything we need to know. Beyond Price, many of the Fundamental Vectors have been discussed repeatedly... in enough detail to priovide consideration(s) of the "Potential(s)" - this week is extreme in its importance. My intentions are to trade the Micro (15min) Objectives cautiously, not a Buyer, but a Seller. Buying the expected retracements has been wildly profitable, this too shall pass. We will limit any BTOs to 1/4 Size and now that we will no longer be able to Hedge SEP/DEC after Rollover, as the March spreads will be 120+ Ticks wide AND VX is price up Implied VX so the cost of PUTs are now begining to become less than desirable... the Challenges to Fix any poorly executed enteries - is negligible. In this type of environment, it is best to move slowly, methodically and observe the Tape. There is no substitute for Screen Time and observing the Key Periods when the Markets react. We have defined these times clearly - the "reaction times of day" - they should be well ingrained in those who are consistent readers of this Forum/Blog/Hub. Patience will be the best modalility for Trading this week, it will be quite violent. Be quick, book profits of size when you have them, DO NOT under any circumstances - OVER-Trade. It is temtpting to press Sells and let profits run when they are growing significantly. This week will take them away at some point, as the Volailtiy will cut both ways. We are closely watching the VIX at its upper Boundary of 22.52. As well, the VXN has been very reliable as an indicator for the NQ. Financials are a complete mess, we have BANK ranging between 4400 - 4500 and Yields becoming unsettled as the BOND Buyers missed an important Cross that has been setting up for several weeks. Bonds Sellers are in control now, Wednesday - Friday will confirm the BOND Markets issues. The Dollar will re-confirm them. Be well and Trade Cautiously - HK
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
11
NQ - Weekly Downturn Objecitves - Macro CommentsWhere to begin as there are far too many Data Points within the Macros. Consumer Senitment dropped sharply last month. This is always a precedent to Downturns, it closed @ 71 for the Month of August. 86/100 years Price has tested the 200SMA 8 Monthly Bull Bars, very low proabability. 9 Monthly Bull Bars, extremely low probability as this has not occured in 60 Years. Asia has been in turmoil with the US Markets ignoring the signs from China our preferred vector for disruption after the EU collision. The Government shutdown can be prevented as the Votes exist, although $4.5 Trillion in spending is going to face obstacles at a time when benefits continue to expire. Bonds are, again, acting poorly against the FX Accident we are forecasting for Currencies - it is frankly difficult to refer to them as such as they no longer are given their underlying Debt Market creation is evaporating quickly. The DX is the leader. Those of you who are/remain regular readers know - My thesis is simple and direct with respect to Bonds - they will not catch the "Flight to Safety Bid" as they no longer are Safe. Instead, they will follow the Markets in a "Positive Correlatrion" to the Downside. Yields will begin to rise again. We see the 10Yr's YCC effort abating short term and failing intermeidate term. Housing will suffer a correction, as Credit itself is tightening - All Credit. The Semiconductor Supply Shortage has been played down imho, it is far more severe than is being touted. Q3 EPS will be an unmitigaed diasater for most of the TECH Arena, it will be comical to observe the excuses mount. Suddenly, very suddenly, it will become REAL. We see the Producer Price Index far exceeeding the Consumer Price Index by over 100%. Which implies Producer are NOT passing along the majority of Price Stresses building. In turn, the implications are HIGHER PRICES ahead, Inflation is NOT ABATING, but accelerating. Independent Producers are unable to compete. Most of the Restaruants I frequent have increased their Prices 30% in a short period of time. This is a wealthy community, on balance there is a large pool of high income earners who can afford to spend for necessities. Average incomes among the Professional class in TECH and Services earn $400K+. A $200 Dinner for 2 is "affordable" and keeps the decreasing number of survivors afloat, for now. They are YOLO Prime, it's all about the Dollars. And speaking of the Dollar, it is tee'd up to rise as the Flight to Safety, Gold will follow suit as well after it completes it's pattern. Equities, Bonds and Real Estate will all comply with the Downturn. There has been a high degree of Bond BTD for months on end, this will come to a decided end as TLT begins to trade to 139s over the coming several months. We see a 7, 9 to 13 week correction with the attendant "Flash Crash" panic moment where Retail exits after the sufferage begins to weigh. This is normal, cyclical and acceptable. It does not mean the Equities Markets will be cut in one half, we don't believe this based upon the present projections. Breaking 3588 on the ES would, however, give us pause. Rather, we see 4/5 completing near and between 200-400SMAs, a good panic Dip-In below the 200SMA's to provide Fuel for new highs as the FED will, no doubt 10X down on demands for Powell's follow-on at the FED to "Amp it up" - we call it the "make em gag for it" moment. That is ahead and quite frankly, Long will be the Trade - imho. 5/5 will complete and that will be the end of the Longest Bull Market in History. It should conclude in 2022. We shall see as a great deal depends upon how DEBT itself re-appears under new arrangements Globally. IS there a Risk we will retest the Highs? We do not believe so, at least nothing dramatic in terms of a Retracement as they are being SOLD Wholesale. The Bond Markets repsonse to the FED will be instrucitve and quite llikley very disappointing for the Buy the Bond Dip Echo Chamber. They fail to see their own demise. It makes a Market, for certain. We'll oppose the Long Bond Trade all day. 1.75% - 2.00% will do it. THE BOND MARKET WILL PRICE IN "INFLATION" - it is this simple. Time - it's next week or 5 weeks for the real reaction, we believe the shorter end panic unfolds as the waters continue to grow murky Globally. NExt's week's reaction can be A large RT or to and through the lows, straight down. Geopolitical Risks loom large as we have outlined, the ECB is simply done, out of bullets and facing immense distrust within the EU. France is prepping for Bastille V.2 - the French are becoming Militant. CASH ($USD) will continue to be Hoarded, another strike against the Bond Complex. The hoarding will continue to GROW. Reverse Repos and US Treasury actions are draining Liquidity and Bond Demand has been met witin the United States, it is Sovereigns who will see the lasrgets haricuts on their bids. Repos are going to roll over, again, BOND Negative. Gold - we see the pattern completing and Gold taking off to new highs. Silver will provide come clear indications for teh strength of the move and whether the Highs are retested. Deflatioanry forces will ulitmately have the desired effect for Gold Bugs, we are not there. The DX can and will cause probems in the short term for GOLD. The DX will be the flight to safety FIRST, not Gold and certainly not Silver as touted. The Gold/Silver Gurus - for the 40+ years I have traded it, are always out over their Predition Skis, not that they are wrong about Economic Conditions... but with respect to Hype, they are always ahead of themselves for 44 years and counting. Since 1977, when I began trading/accumulating Physical metals. The same Sh_t Show... every decade. It is amazing. On to the the ES... We have the Death Cross, we have seen rejection take place 3 times. 50 fails, 100 fails, 200 awaits. EMAs have rolled over. We have a failing wedge into the 1/5 around 4380 - perhaps ahead of the FED. Wednesday or ahead of it, we would need to see a large Counter-Trend Up o the FED. Traders need to be on guard... we can bottom out and rallying on Powell's Meme. Watch for the lower High for a short term reversal. 4400 to 4370 - this range can provide support SHORT TERM, which ONLY serves to provide the LOWER LOWS into a FLASH CRASH. OR It can simply power down on Bond Yileds blowing up and finally pushing through the YCC actions to 4100. 3850-3900 is KEY SUPPORT in the weekly timeframe. We'll know as we approach the follow-thru. For now, keeping an open mind to Price is best. VX is expanding... 35 - 40 for VIX is our overhead Objective, it can go far higher. Anything can trade for Price, it can also DUMP far more. They are attempting to prevent - Straight down. Crypto - has simply been used as a Dispencery for Illegal Laundering and a large Basket for Trading. Regulations will do the rest.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
16
ES - August 4347 - 4542 DrawConsecutive Weekly Bars were 4 Ticks apart, the 2nd being the lower of the two for September... a Higher High for the ES, by a 7.5 handles. Tomorrow is "triple witching" and we should anticipate volatility resulting from the expiration dates of the three financing instruments - stock options, stock index futures and stock index options all expire simultaneously. In addition, Derivatives Sqare twice a year @ the BIS - March / September. The effects are usally quite dramtic and "Max Pain" is unreliable as there are far larger Pools of Capital squaring. We are four trading days from the next Federal Reserve pronouncements. Typically we see the TREND exert itself ahead of the FED. If the do nothing... or pander the same - then it will be October, that won't work for most... not at all as Q3 Earnings are going to be - horrific - and everyone within the Complex knows this. We are yet to hear actual warnings, instead we see teh Media edge off "issues" and "severe Issues" with Semiconductors.... Not Black GOLD, but Arrangement GOLD. It won't pass, buggy whips included. Sellers remain and loom quite large, Retail was squeezed once again today as Futures, Put options and Shares were sold into during the prior several lows below 4441. Friday's are always a low liquidity session - with one expcetion, 3x ad 4x expirations. Usually the expanding range counter-trends last from 3 to 7 trading days. Gap Fills are axiomatic as we move from Monday to Friday as the probability increases as we move throught the week. More than a few traders are wondering if we off to far higher levels. We had solid strucutre counts on the YM RTY ES and even the NQ although it was the laggard. These counts respectively 8/9 - 8/9 - 6/9 and 4/9 have reversed. We now see the range expand as indicated by the VIX / VVIX / VXN - as vol of vol began to fall shaprly we has our signals the trade would reverse, this was yesterday. It will be difficult for Price to move to close over last months high indicated in the chart above. It may get close, but it will take a monumental effort as Institutions are in a very clear pattern of SELLS, they abated as there were no buyers, even the Retail Dip buyer tossed in the towel. The same Dip Buyer is now looking for 16, 17 , 18K for NQ - 5000 for the ES and 2400 for RTY as well as 37K for the Dow after this reversal - and to be fair, for well over a year they have been 100% correct. It was not until last September 3rd we had a sharp correction unimpeded. It has well beyond one year Price has tested it's 200SMA. We can how the defense came in looking at the 1 Hour Chart - the Death Cross was not to be permitted. Quite often, reactions from the 100SMA 1Hr are violent as it is THE LIS for Professional Managers. No one wants this game to end when the Taxpayer is funding enormous Profits, No One. The issue is it cannot contniue given the Global Backdrop and the longer it does, the more severe the Drop. We do not believe it will fall more than 10 -15% - perhpas dipping in to 400SMA Dailies, but not exceeding 3588 as the 1/5 conclusion, this would imply a larger, perhpas 30 - 50 % correction, one that is not recoverable for a long time. There is price where it squares, we are approaching it. Sellers moved Price out of their own balance as they have more to distribute. The only real hedge they have left is Volatilty Instruments, these are worthy of following very closely to determine when and where they have comfort in beyond Delta Nuetral for downside Profits, they continue to build these positions as VX declines and Protection decreases in Price along with Vol of Vol or the VVIX Instrument. Know what to look for as we move through this period. It can and wil change very quickly, we firmly believe 200SMAs will be tested into October/November and would suggest the 400SMAs stand a higher probability of being an Objective. We believe 4509 - yeah, that's going to be a very tough Close EOD. It should be SOLD wholesale.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
VIX - OCT / VIX & VXNFrankly this is all we need to watch, the VIX has consistently been Bid into Settlement only to fall back to LT Support. Will we retest the Highs or come up short and continue the Institutional SELLs. ES - 4451.50 is the Support Level for ES / 3493 - 3498 - 3509 - 3512 - 3521 YM - 34527 Pivot / 34994 Objective NQ - 15388 Pivot for higher and Micro Support We are SOH until 10 AM EST and watching how Macro Data impacts Price levels. It will be all quiet until the FED next Wednesday. The buyers strike was filled on the Squeeze, is there Fuel left? We shall see. DX - DX/JPY - Yields indicate Risk Off remain in trade. Flip a Coin, it will depend on BR / VG / FED and Inst's sitting on Hands for higher levels. *** Our bias remains R I S K OFF at levels for reversals.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
14
VIX - Potential for an Index Squeeze is building - CautionToday will determine as to whether this SELL takes a breather and provides a large retracement for the ES YM RTY and NQ OR Continues Buyers are on Strike, Sellers need to be the new Buyers. VIX Settlement is today - Price has a Gap to Fill Below. We will be waiting for the Range within the Micros and larger Daily Timeframes to resolve prior to entereing. _______________________________________________________________ FED annouced new Coupon Purchase Schedule and we see there is Support once again. SOH Until NYSE open and 10AM Inst Open. Prosperous trading - HK
CBOE:VX2!
by HK_L61
10
NQ - CPI / Yields + ES YM RTY - Structure SummaryIntra-Day setups remain our only trades as the VIX completes Settlement Tomorrow. Puts are again becoming attractive as this weeks Gamma Squeeze is beginning to become extended. AAPL -150 CALLS * Apple claims they will be unaffected by Semi Shortages TSLA - 750 Calls AMC - 56 Calls ______________________________________________________________________________________ 20 Weeks SemiConductor lead times. Q3 EPS warings begin next week VXN Pullback ZN broke the Long we are watching the 133.125 Level TLT weakening in structure sub 150 ***12735 is the Longer Term Price Objective into November ______________________________________________________________________________________ ES YM RTY remain in a Micro Squeeze on VIX Settle and pullback potential to 19.20 ES - remains within its Series, Resisitance is holding for now, the Objective is a full 50% retracement off the conter-trend long from lows. ES PO - Larger Resistance 4492 - 4505 YM - 34993 -35035 Objective RTY - Ranging between 2119 - 2335 ______________________________________________________________________________________ CL - 7161 breaks and we have the potential to return to the Weekly FHWB @ 77.00 CPI will have a large effect upon CL Previous highs acting as support... mean higher for now. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Food Prices rose 16% MOM... CPI Ex - Food/Energy Energy Prices are up significantly MOM Dollar / JPY is gaining strenght implies a clear flight to Safety and RISK OFF 109.83 sends it higher... far higher. 10Yr Yields remain just below a breakout at 1.417 Financials have failed at resitance repeatedly - 4521 the level of Micro Resistance ______________________________________________________________________________________ The FED removes theor gloves next week ahead of important elections. Namely It Canada intially as Treadeau is the Chimp to watch for the Green Agenda in North America... it is extreme in its importance for the Agenda. Europes selections will be followed closely as well as LaGarde has teed up her Chimps to advance the Agenda. California has the Governors recall which appear to be failing quietly. Gavin is a piece of work, little HItler disguised as a Sunbeam. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Geopolitics will have far more impact than has been priced in...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
11
YM - Monthly Close > 35035 for August LIS / SEP VX +++The Risk of a 2 month correction after this week completes and treading begins Tuesday. This does not appear to be a major high and a retest of support back to the 31,000 level is possible as long as 37,000 level on the Dow is not exceeded. Wide Range? Indeed - 2,000+ Ticks of range. Yes, it all is within the boundaries of enormous Ranges, trade Micro CT's in INV Ladders as opposed to going all in at a specific level. ALL order flow is bought and sold, everywhere to varying degrees. When it is raining SELLs, the fuel remains for a Squeeze. We are anticipating a SELL this week in ALL Equities, we'll see where they game it too... prior to dipping back into the SELLER Deep End of the Pool. Overall, we are Bias to downside, patiently waiting for signals that will arrive all too quickly. Transport look weak... DX will provide cover early in the week, Yields not so much... Blink and you'll miss it - imho. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
20
dow has trendline resistance it could break.all markets are trying to climb out of the hole this morning. they could do it, but with a selloff fresh in our memories, it is very hard to be a buyer, knowing that at any point the sellers could regain their confidence and try dropping it again. From a risk management standpoint this lowers the probability of finding a stop loss in a protected area. with the threat of bears in the air, there essentially isn't a protected area, which means you can probably only rely on pattern breakouts, which I'm not really seeing much of. They have been forming, but they haven't initiated big volatile moves like you would see when a market has clearly picked a direction.
CBOT_MINI:YMU2021
by emehoke
ES - Channel Surfing 2hr - NQ YM RTY SOXS TQQQ TLT ZN ZB ARKKFriday's WRR was symptomatic of how the Order Book and Market @ depth can be rung like a Bell - Every stop was smoked. We held 493s @ 12 after peeling off the same ahead of Thursday. A solid and comfortable buffer of 8 Handles giving us a 501 B/E - Stop was 96, the reaction level and prior PO. Wrecked in minutes, All positions took the poker, hot. NQ was the leader into Thursday close, making a lower low on the Hourly, while finishing Friday @ new ATHs. The only trade taken in NQ was the initial higher high @ 428 to 390 on 80 MNQ scaled in from 426. This Sell became the fuel for the next stop run higher. Retail Traders entered and reentered the Sell all day only to be crushed under the Futures bid. The Semis bid took SOXS to new lows, ending our position on Stop - our largest loser in 17 months. TQQQ stopped .38 below entry. TLT ZN ZB closed @ 0.12%+ ARKK Stopped at ~ Entry and on and on it goes... stop stop stop run. 1st losing day in 17 days and a large loss on SMH's. ______________________________________________________________________________ ES Chart illustrates the higher targets - and lower 4441/4444 Support - 80 Handle range. What it does not show is the following - Market on Close orders were followed on in Globex - the Sell imbalances... were immense. Perhaps those in the know, knew the Drone Strike retaliation was on Deck. It is clear we are in a Large topping process, with stop run after stop run the tool in trade. Where this terminates now is a WAG. The very moment everything lines up in a large SELL, the rescue operation doubles down and makes New ATHs on expanding divergences. Frustrating in the extreme as it requires very large drawdowns, unacceptable drawdowns on Capital. Hedging DEC SELLs with SEP Bids Intra-Day has worked, although the Risks in continuing this balance is so extreme, we are going to remain in CASH with an extreme negative position structure.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
NQ - Equity Analysis, Macro Events - Friday Powell 10AM ESTNQ and the Balance of Equity Instruments traded to resistance overnight ahead of Today's Macro Data and Fed Chair Powell speaking @ 10:00 AM EST. Kaplan's expected reversal of reversal Taper, came and went. Bullard was extremely Hawkish yesterday. IF Powell is less so, the DX will decline. Financials remain in SELL. Bonds remains in a SELL. ROCs in 10Yr need to be watched carefully. VIX inside the Long from lows with all pullbacks defended - 18.95 LIS. FRYday's are usually "VIX Attack". Support for VIX M1 @ 19.65. ES remains in a Larger Long, it defended the .382 with the Gap Fill @ 4466.65. YM is the Weak Sister, it defends Globex resistance. RTY has yet to trade a Pull Back. The usual suspects - AMC TSLA ARKK do not look good... it is OPEX. Gamma failing for the 4th week in a row. Participation will roll off after 11:30 AM EST as EU Session closes. BR/VG will be on the hunt... Friday's are theirs's. We are taking today off from trading on balance with 1/4 to 1/2 size today at maximum. Next week will provide the continuation to advancing the SELL, we began positioning for it this week. 38% Sell to Open presently DEC on Derivs and M1 - M3 Vix Complex. Today's Price action will be aggressive if the usual suspects show up to run Prices. We will simply Hedge DEC with SEP CTs if necessary. 10AM will obviously provide a reaction, we are SOH til then. For today, we are Neutral and trading very small size, limiting risk exposure.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
50