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SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM EST. "We're committed to maintaining our Policy" Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower. Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade. The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup. _______________________________________________________________________ Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake. Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%. ________________________________________________________________________ X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs. We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October. The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher. VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot. Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied). DX can pull back to 108.50. ________________________________________________________________________ Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive then Tuesday was Negative. NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick. Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying. A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the Trendline will need to provide extreme support. Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly. Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level. Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7% ________________________________________________________________________ Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
3
Bitcoin should be very close to a major bottom right nowMy analysis suggests Bitcoin needed to move below the $18.9k level in order to setup a new momentum base - then launch to levels above $25k (possibly targeting $30k or higher). I suggest Bitcoin traders start to look for a base/bottom setup below $18.8 (if possible) as I expect a very big rush to safety taking place over the next 60+ days. I believe this flight to safety will be the result of some geopolitical event - not a Fed event. Possibly China/Russia or somewhere else. My research suggests the second half of 2022 is highly likely to include a major cycle inflection trigger. Watch OIL, GOLD, SILVER, US Dollar and other major indexes. Something very big is going to hit between now and the end of September 2022. Bitcoin should start to bottom and then move above $23k fairly quickly - possibly within 10+ days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY / SPX / ES - Shortened Week AheadAugust did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure. RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex. TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates? At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging on... slightly. Will the VIX Spike to 38 to 41? The ES would need to collapse to and through 3600, SPY clearly to new lows. VVIX is seeing the out-of-control setup - Few Puts in SPY, Few participants in VIX Calls due to IV. Prices sit at the most Pivotal area. Volimes are the main takeaway. Cumulative NYSE TICK took us sideways into the Close. Is the selling slowing down... that will depend on whether we see compression this week within a trading range. Friday was a Trending Day. Can Buyers Create Balance here? It will require a SOH on the SELL SIDE. Market Internals need to HOLD. Look below and fail is open as well. 11 of the past 19 September's ended up with 8 ending Down. The past 20 years have been highly volatile and I find it a generational approach more relevant than the overall historical as HFT/ALGO Trading has become dominant with increased Volatility - It's my approach this September. Alladin will be extremely busy this Month - chalking up further gains for Blackrock. The Quarterly close will provide important answers to a Trend in decline at present. It is somewhat overstretched on OSCs, but Summation Indexes have more work to do. This can provide ever-increasing Volatility as we see the VIX Curve pricing in expanding VX for several months. VIX - % Contango SEP M1 @ 3.90% OCT M2 @ 1.80% NOV M3 @ 0.37% DEC M4 @ 3.30% JAN M5 @ 0.25% FEB M6 @ 0.82% MAR @ Par with FEB _________________________________________________________________________________________ Year to Date - August opened the Dunk Tank once Powell delivered his May FSR Objective affirmation for Asset Prices and Interest Rate Forward Guidance. Winners: Energy + 30.10 % Utilities + 5.64 % Losers: Consumer Non-Cyclical -6.55 % Financial -10.81 % Transportation -15.08 % Basic Materials -15.26 % Technology -31.79 % Healthcare -26.92 % Consumer Discretionary -26.06 % Services -21.44 % Capital Goods -20.45 % Retail -18.52 % A very brutal 2022 into the month of September - where Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes are within poor Structure. August SPY Monthly provided a very nasty inverted Hammer. Sellers stepped up in spades at the Highs and Sold to the opening Print, and through the Opening Print - to close on lows. September's opening print did not hold the lower Body Bar on Friday - a poor close to the week with options settlement into the Cash Session. Buyers were non-responsive at best. Sellers sold through on increasing volume for the 3rd consecutive day. September's big events are ahead - the 13th CPI. Powell will provide color commentary on the 21st. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Last Month's Price action served to expand the range for Major Indices. Monthly timeframes continue to hold Lower Highs, not a good look from the June Lows at present. The 379.92 Level is the .382 and Pivotal for the Month of September, it is presently the initial implied Lower Range for the SPY on the confirmed break and closing below the Trend Line Support. SPY 50% resides at 349.12 - the opening to a larger and lower low - into the Gap Fill @ 338.50. Obviously larger targets below on increased panic and further Selling. Price is currently sitting on top of what was prior support. _________________________________________________________________________________________ I have cautioned for some time, Rates were a distraction too far larger issues within the Global Economy. Repeatedly. There are 3 legs to this stool. Forward EPS, which remains incredibly high based upon earnings projections and their required adjustment too far lower expectations. These have been partially priced in after Powell dropped the Hammer. There is more work to do there. QT remains a recycling operation - in through the out door with the appearance of an aggressive FED - while advancing CBDC via FED NOW/FED DIRECT at an increasing pace for Rollout. This and 41067 won't bode well for Crypto IMHO. Simply adding to the avalanche of impending exits which can be triggered by any panic in trade. _________________________________________________________________________________________ After large declines for all Major Indices... we've never seen a real Flush down panic, not one. This is a once in 100 years Bear Market and it will be difficult to navigate as the Algorithms are growing increasingly predatory. Be careful out there, reduce Size and be on guard for increasing VX in September. Bearish Sentiments @ AAII are rising to 50.6% again. Stop runs on trailers and catching traders offsides should be anticipated. We will see if the breakdown hammers this lower or price can manage to consolidate in a larger range this week - expanding to the downside but providing outsized squeezes based on the Gamma / Delta. _________________________________________________________________________________________ A Break of 388.96 has the potential and higher probability of creating a massive flush down and panic move to the downside. Price is currently sitting on top of DOM Support or what many refer to as a Volume Node, I'm old, Depth of Market (DOM) is my preferred nomenclature. 3 Weeks of selling favors the Sellers - expected moves will produce lower Highs in Trend. Daily DT is another large Lower Low. The Daily TF is the confluence with the Trendline @ 390.85 - BREAKING THIS will get nasty. Buyers will absolutely need to defend early this Week, 399.50 may limit the upside in the Range. 379 to 399.50 is the Larger Range this week. 408.25 breaks a Potential Bear Flag. Sector Support appears to be a Risk OFF in ALL Sectors. HYG will provide leading indications as will XLF - breakdowns here would be very NEGATIVE. Can Buyers consolidate here... we will see. Take care and be cautious - trade Safe, Lower highs in the XLK will provide entry into the Trend.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5
SPY - Becoming Oversold ST / And...What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market. Let's see if they can recapture the 377... It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross being a 199/377 2X affair. The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s For the ES - 3910 to 4120. NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818 ________________________________________________ The week is young, it's Algo Wednesday, best to be on guard for a potential squeeze. And then Failure perhaps next week on a shortened week. There are 67K 400 Puts for the SPY. Apple - expanded new Range 153.70 to 164.10, Tesla 840 to 892 ADP Friday (300K), Fed Speakers reiterating their Position all week, with the DX, VX, and Rates lending ample confusion. The DX can pull Back to 107s and remain in trend to 112. Yields - 2YY vertical wedge, 10's remain in a longer-term uptrend. VX - 8 Count ST Highs - as we move into Friday it's due to pullback or explode, toss a dart. Crude was sold to the late chasers, it dumped hard to a key pivot which IF broken revisits 85. Weekly Charts - See Goog... just nasty. _________________________________________________________ Next CPI September 13, FED on Sept. 21. It's a laundromat Monday every day until this timeframe. Short term it has been whipsaws to further downside. RSI divergence short term, MACD moved into Negative, AO has as well. Rejection 3x. PC elevated... Meme / BTC wrecked. What a complete mess. Mixed signals in a downtrend are the most dangerous place to trade.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
4
SPY - Daily / The Largest Reversal Bar since the LowsFriday was rough for Traders' offsides. I'm reluctant to even state the obvious at this point as it is self-evident. If you were on the incorrect side, feel for you as it was an insidious trap. In conversations with Traders, the large majority were Buyers for Friday. My bias was lower and a Negative close as SPX buyers had positioned for the Kill. The Falcon and the snowed-men, it happens, unfortunately, some must lose in order for others to win. Wall Street is very unforgiving at critical junctures, taking Retail's Capital. Powell provided the color in 8 very direct minutes - to the point, no stammering, no wavering. _____________________________________________________________________________________ I had intimated the 2YY was providing some serious indications, the Dollar, even more, SPX positioning was downright nasty for the Sell and once again made Max Pain irrelevant. QT utterances would have been a total disaster, but Powell sidestepped the worsening case there. More importantly, for months I've discussed the deteriorating Global Economy and Terminal Sentiment. Fundamentals are quite often ignored as the Financial Media will pander to Multiple Expansions, Recessions out the Curve, Yield Curve inversions as "questionable events," Liquidity Dislocations... all of these are obvious indications - and yet they are muted via Financial Media's messed up message track. It did suck to watch frankly - Cronyism at work and play. Again, if you were beaten, my condolences. _____________________________________________________________________________________ After another very odd 5 Wave move into the Highs at Resistance, Once again lower Resistance was run only to see the Sell begin a very large decline, exceeding 4% on the NQ an event which 18/18 times has led to Lower Lows. Lower Lows are indeed ahead. A continuation of the powerful Sell is now assured, how it unfolds will be quite telling. The rising Lower Trend will be an important test. I am, however anticipating another 8 to 11% Downside, perhaps far more. It is too early to make that determination as we need a great deal more information. Let's see if Black Monday we've indicated - arrives. Good Luck, Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
15
SPY - Volumes fell off on Decline Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap. Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides. Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days. Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+. Buyers need to not hear Powell so much as mention QT. This needs to be avoided with Rates the primary focus. Should he deviate into Quantitative Tightening - all bets are off. We see the rounded lows in the 1 Hour Chart and the Couuntertrend channel - now we simply see if the throw over short squeeze (TOSS) holds on GDP. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ After yesterday's -1175 NYSE Tick @ 12:15 PM EST - doubts began to arise once again. The SPX dragged everything lower in several minutes. Volatility intra-day spiked and created further uncertainty. 4164 was the Key Pivot for the ES - the front run 4162. During Globex, it crushed this level by 21 Handles. NQ Pivoted over the Ghost Level @ 13013 during Globex. Tesla crossed the $300 Level with New POs for 2022 $333 to $425 issued by Investment Banks. NVDA had issued enough forward warnings to be mildly impacted after issuing its EPS / Guidance. Debt Forgiveness in an Election Cycle is purely Political theatre. Powell is due to provide clarity on his position through September tomorrow beginning at 10 AM EST during a day of very heavy Macro Data. Fundamentally - it will be an extraordinary day for trading, so best of trading in advance. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Of Concern: 2YY - 2 YEar Yield Futures are approaching 3.5% - for now and again this is the power of Now - The Effective Federal Funds Rate is 2.53%. The 2 Year is getting close to pricing in a 100 Basis point Hike. DX/DXY remain in a structurally sound uptrend, pullbacks are quite normal. Until the EU issues its next rate decision on September 15th - the DX is free to roam about. It is important to acknowledge the prior Highs were bested... this is important as it implies the 112s will be arriving in the near future. Although the 10 Year is being permitted to lift in assisting the Yield Curve's reduced inversion, it's frankly not a material concern as Yields continue to rise across the Curve. FX Traders took the 6E (Euro) downtown below Par due to Economic conditions and not Rate Parities. The NatGas to Crude correlations are disturbing - $410 - yesterday the Media upped it from $520 to $1000. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Patience into Powell will be the best Trade imho. Good Luck, the Bigger setup is 25 hours away ;)
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5
SPY - 2 Hour / Buyers & Sellers prefer Higher How often does the Market reward both when they are aligned? Not often. Rare to see both seeking Prices to move higher, and potentially why Wall Street will shake things up with a few surprises. Volumes declined significantly yesterday. NVDA reports today. ________________________________________________________ In all probability, they will attempt to entice both Lower and create a chase into new Lows. GDP Revisions may have the desired impact on Thursday. Friday will be the Maximum Mix day with intense volatility. It's what I would do, were it my job to frustrate as many market participants as possible. Areas of interest below for the SPY - 407.35 / 408.11 / 409.88 with the Pivot at 410.2. For Friday's Expiry, the Range is 410 to 416 for Retail, the SPX will lead once again, the possibility of a large but unapparent disconnect is why we see Max Pain fail time and again. Large Traders have been ranging the SPX with a larger sell-side favor intraday as well as into September, on balance they are quite heavily positioned for further downside. _________________________________________________________ What stood from yesterday: The VIX Barely budged, the DX pulled back .88% at one point, while 2YY and TNX stayed within range. News out of the Eurozone was negative in the extreme, with Natgas correlated to Crude indicating - $410 to $500/bbl was fair value. A trap or set expectations, longer term we are very bullish crude, but are positioned for fills between 62 & 77. OIL is showing continued strength as it approaches 95 this morning. I exited my longs this morning. GOLD, not so much - 1687 remains open. Noise, for now, but as long as Crude is moving higher on OPEC's production cuts impending, the SPY SPX ES NQ YM RTY will struggle. Energy is having a marked impact on Price since the 200 EMA touch. __________________________________________________________ Apple appears to be looking at the 164 fill, with the Markets coiling up the break in either direction will be quick and dirty. Crypto looks quite weak, BTC may revisit the 19K level shortly. With the expectations of Markets ranging into Jackson Hole and Powell's 10 AM EST Speech on Friday - Friday is a simply massive Macro Data Day. 8:30 am PCE price index monthly 8:30 am Core PCE price index monthly 8:30 am PCE price index year-over-year 8:30 am Core PCE price index year-over-year 8:30 am Real disposable incomes 8:30 am Real consumer spending 8:30 am Nominal personal incomes 8:30 am Nominal consumer spending 8:30 am Trade in goods, advance 10 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole retreat 10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (final) 10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (final) __________________________________________________________ Financial Media flipped to Seasonal Volatility and a return to questioning the longevity and validity of the move off June's lows - too fast, too much. Fear / Greed Index remains relatively Neutral - tinyurl.com The Federal Reserve has reduced The Balance Sheet by $115.755 Billion. Inflation will remain high for 1 to 2 years according to Goldman Sachs. Trade Safe, patience wins this week as Friday's OPEX will be a criminal affair.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
6
90 Day Macro View Increasingly, competitive crosscurrents are creating notional Equity Directional disturbances. A large number of Investors/Traders have convinced themselves the Federal Reserve was attempting to Bluff the Markets. Running Indexes up off the Mid-June at the greatest rate of change in history once the SloMo began to move through its varying psychological attributes. Momo gave way to Fomo which quickly reversed off Resistance overhead. Normal behavior, so far. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ The underlying Malfunction is beginning to see signs of light in the tunnel of love. Powell's recent admission will not repeat Arthur Burns's misdeeds of the past provided an interesting tell. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ We can expect to see broader Market Ranges in the coming 90 Days as confusions abound and will be resolved. Permit me to explain. The FOMC Minutes were Negative as FOMC Participants observed Inflation remains unacceptably high. Reduction of Treasury and Agency Debt was re-affirmed. EFF vs IR @ 2.53 versus 8.5%+ - 600 Basis Points and 237% Divergence while the Objective remains 2%. If we were to factor in the BLS Basis adjustment (Jan. 1, 2022) - it is easily Double. Although they indicated the potential for a pause may be within their purview... the catch is they remain Data-dependent. A nebulous and arbitrary hedge. Aggressive EFF Increases with a pause somewhere on the Horizon was my takeaway. The additional admission of a weakening Consumer provided the coup de gras for Data Dependence. Building a better box for further confusion and delay. EFF vs 2YY @ 2.53 vs. 3.28 does indicate a 75 BPS Hike for September, not 50 BPS - at present with the Yield Curve Inverted out to the 7's. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Where is the FED indicating they need to bring EFF... 3.5 to 4%. I've paid close attention to the QT Schedule - which has remained rather jiggy. Prior to June 15th, we observed the Fed begin the largest reduction in some time. Effectively reducing the Balance Sheet by $81B while $90B was to have been removed by August 15th. Remember, on September 15th they stated reductions were to increase to $60B / Month. A significant increase over notional distributions since June 15th. Measures of Liquidity have come down significantly, clearly, the FED is concerned about a dislocation now. MBS Markets have seized up. M2 Velocity is at its lowest reading, many Mortage lenders are on the verge of Insolvency, M2 is in its 5th month of contraction - all of this has been roundly ignored by Invertors / Speculators. Quantitative Tightening has tread ever so lightly with the specter of a looming 100% increase in the Balance Sheet reductions per month. The FED is moving at a glacial pace as Economic Conditions have weakened precipitously. For context, it is important to remember - Assets on the FED's balance sheet were $4.16Trillion prior to Covid. MBS requires 90 Days to settle, The FED was buying up until June 15th knowing they had time to square into September 15th, this trick escapes Retail attention, understandably so as the FED never discloses these nuances. For Treasuries, maturity is reached on the 15t and 30th/31st of each month, hence the rally off June 16th, there are no accidents. Mid-Month usually generates Liquidity issues around pivotal dates for Time, squaring occurs closer to Months end. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ By the time we get to the first week of October, the Fed's roll-off will become extremely evident. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Investors have focused solely on Rates, one-half of the real FED Agenda. QT is more important at this point, far more. I indicated the effective break rate for the Indices would be 3.5% for the 10 Year Yield. We saw the results of this level for the Indexes. It is important to remember the Bulk of prior Funding from 2002 onward was done below 30 months on the curve, increasing the refunding needs exponentially. Thank Timothy Bitsberger from Goldman for this, as it was an intentional and extremely devious plan to collapse Debt over time. QT will have an extreme effect on Liquidity at a time where Liquidity itself is coming under immense duress Globally. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ The November FOMC may see a pause due to the Mid-Terms, we will see - Apolitical appearances and all. They will not pause QT, it will remain ongoing as a background operation of vital importance. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Investors survived the first wave of FED Adjustments, they will not be imbued with the same again. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ The most important communique from Jackson Hole will be how it directs Monetary Tightening to take effect as Rates take a backseat to a further Liquidity Squeeze via QT. Bulls want to believe the FED will back away - I'm leaning towards Economic Activity and its attendant Depression remain pervasive. Sentiment will begin to worsen. The New Congress will not be seated until April 2023. Any hope for Stimmy direct to Citizens/Consumers is DOA until then. Global Economic conditions are rather Dire.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
4
Advanced TA (Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Others) Lead TrendsThis is a complex chart showing the SPY in a broad spectrum of Advanced Technical Analysis. What you need to understand is this rally has stalled after a "scouting party" attempt to identify support above the long-term CYAN price channel (which also acted as support in early 2021 on the way down). Failure to hold this support level will prompt a very big downside price trend that may retest the 2015-16 lows. Everyone is talking about a Fed Pivot - but I don't see that happening. I see a broad financial crisis event unfolding over the next 4+ years where asset values contract (homes, stocks, and others) in a global unwinding process. China/Asia are particularly at risk because they may not see any real recovery from their excess speculation phase until after 2027+. The US markets may recover 2~3 years before foreign markets as the US has somewhat prepared for another crisis event after 2007-10 - but we'll see. Failure at this point would indicate a potential for a new Wave 3 (downward) that could be rather large. Learn to protect your assets as you identify opportunities. This is not the time to go ALL IN on any big trend. This warning is CONDITIONAL. The SPY would have to move lower and break $363 to establish a new downward price trend. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
One Chart SUMS it All Up - EuroDollar : SPYLower, far lower lows are ahead. SPY Gaps: 400.76 338.66 285.67 235.77 Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024. The DX will return to 125. Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense. _____________________________________________________________ Keep it simple, the Indices will Collapse. _____________________________________________________________ One final blow-off is due, IF key Support holds for the Equity Complex, fail and this retracement ran Exactly to the .677 TGT we've had since June 17th. Then few believed the Summer rally would be able to achieve these levels, most were looking for far lower. They were simply early and off for time. Time is now approaching for the next move lower, hopefully, there will be a thrust conclusion to 2/5 Lower. If it holds symmetry - we can see higher highs prior to a complete collapse. This remains a very large Bear Market regardless of Price.
G
by HK_L61
4
SPY Dancing On The Edge Of A CliffThe US markets are experiencing a unique capital shift at the moment. Foreign capital is pouring into the US equity markets and driving the US Dollar higher. When this trend shifts - look out below. I'm sending this warning to all traders/investors right now. Even though my research suggests we may see an extended rally phase lasting many years for the US markets - any global crisis event (think China/Asia/Russia) could blow a hole in the support we are seeing right now. In other words, stay cautious, use stops, play the trend as very fragile and possibly strengthening over time. My research focused on broad cycle patterns and suggests a big cycle event will take place in the second half of 2022. After that, the next big cycle event is more than 4+ years away. That means we have quite a bit of time to trend, or move into a disruptive phase, over the next 4+ years. Pay attention.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
ES - 1 Hour / Pivotal Timeframe - BONDS DivergingWE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement. The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA. Bullish? Definetely not. That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline. For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity. _________________________________________________________________________ After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking. Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows. Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts. FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme Greed is in trade. Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!" While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly. Bond Auctions - 379 Failures. _________________________________________________________________________ Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly. Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term cross-current. It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range? That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes. A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru this level. Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030 to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th. _________________________________________________________________________ Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE. To Distro more Junk & Co. _________________________________________________________________________ Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they are calling Bullsh_t. Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent. HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners. Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen serve it up. _________________________________________________________________________ RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot. Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care. September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year. Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss. _________________________________________________________________________ In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm. Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again and the ending... the song remains the same. _________________________________________________________________________ Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade. NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical has arrived. The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control on the Curve. TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings going to Snap. A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile. Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation on schedule. _________________________________________________________________________ RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
3
Fahrvergnügen - The Traders VehicleTrading pleasure abounds as the FED's non-sense continues unabated. A thrill ride out of Bear Market Territory for ES 3849.50, the NQ was the laggard at 13414. 13392 the larger Pivot for the NQ Futures, a hidden one, but the DOM suits it rather well. "Exiting the Bear Market" is the new mantra, narrative, and fresh bullhorn as we see "Inflation - Come Off" - Bloomberg 24/7 now. A chortle of whores and pimps, typical and to be expected as the Summer Solstice trade grinds on trapping goblins everywhere on the Tape. Ignore the shortages of refined energy products, food, and the things we need to conduct our lives. No, lookie over here easily distracted, memory short degens. ____________________________________________________________________ The FED took off $14B week over week - at this rate, the FED is never going to hit its "Target" @ $90Billion in QT beginning in September. Uber Doves - Khardasian, WIlly, and Bob Evans chicken all decided to don push-up bras and assure us they mean business... Bullard blew an Esmerelda, again. Fed Fund Futures have more intray-week volatility than the VIXen. _____________________________________________________________________ VX Complex - utterly sh_t mixed... but... and there is a very large butt. Vol of Vol is showing signs the Big Lick is developing for a very large return of Volatility. Count on it, plan for it... here is why. The next decline will have a Scope, Scale, and Velocity - unlike the January decline. It will be extremely destructive in very short order for Price. August 22nd to September 4th appears to be in line with expectations. VX Calls carry a massive Prem... obvious expectations. Yes, ahead of selections for Mid-Term grifters. ______________________________________________________________________ The FED is now indicating a "Panic Cycle" (of course it's not) it's simply when they are now pandering to January as the "oops, we broke sh_t" They made it very clear in the FSR that they wanted a 50% haircut... they be serious. Central Bankers Globally are getting a Tate-sized Master Class of MLM from the EuroDollar Primaries... the DX shortage will be extreme in the extreme. ______________________________________________________________________ When Brown Brothers Harriman is looking for a DX collapse... look the other way. _______________________________________________________________________ EuroDollar has one more Chart Print to the Next Plunge. Crash Landings... are not survivable. Sellers of DEC 2022 and MAR 2023 on ES NQ MYM RTY. Lots and Lots of spicy Poots to round out the Meme and FANG fade. When Turbines SIEZE.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
9
ES - Monthly Risk Range / Impending COLLAPSE2007 Levels will be upcoming into October 2023. Summer Counter-Trend has more room for the upside. The Monthly Risk Range is at extraordinary risk. "Others" are getting it all together for the Early Fall Classic. Extreme patience is required for the SELL, it will continue to develop over time, blink and you'll miss it. Financial Media continues to caution Bear Market Rally without mentioning the extremes to which they can and have occurred @ 10 - 21%. This one will fail as well as PE's become even more distended and detached from the collapsing NET's and forward Sales. Summer has always been the time of year for Wall Street to begin the next Grift, this one is no different. Cyclically - 8 weeks from the Weekly Pivot for time lined up perfectly within the 112 Week Cycle (111.8) with 2/3 weeks of Wally World left to complete. $2 Trillion in Pocket lining Stimmy for the "Others" and the Assault Weapons (Rifle) debate on tap. Pelosi (CCP Ladyboy) suggesting a visit to Taiwan is in order... A FED who appears to prefer confusion and delay ahead of the Greater Collapse - all the while destroying the Labor Markets, while Buffet and his ilk prepare for Sharecropping the Sheeple. __________________________________________________________ The Investment Establishment continues to maintain a balanced Portfolio of Stocks and Bonds - 90% of the Industry. Independents beg to differ, they believe avoidance is the optimal strategy. Risk On versus Risk Aversion. ___________________________________________________________ Goldman Sachs predicted a 14% rise in Equities into 2008, December of 2007 it collapsed 36%. Wall Street setting the expectations for Greed once again, but failing to deliver sans a more massive wealth transfer - deliverance. The 2 main reasons are quite simple: 1. Status Quo Bias - Unwillingness to accept the 10%, only the 90%. 2. Cognition Bias - Confirmation Bias that filters existing preconceptions. ______________________________________________________________ Numbers never lie, however, fudged they may be. Lying is part and parcel of the Grift. 56% at minimum will come off the Indices in the first leg lower. It will head far lower over the coming years exceeding the 4-year 90% cycle during the Great Depression, this will be far greater. Concentrations are trending further towards non-representation of Humanity form every point on the Arrangement Curve.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
DJI to $14,500 in July 2032?Do we revert to the 50 year mean in 2032? That would put the Dow at 14,500 in 2032 if the cycle repeats. Found it very interesting that it was exactly 50 years to get a low & bounce from the Great Depression bottom. Every mega bear market is different so IF this is the start of another mega bear market that takes us to the lower blue line on this log chart then I doubt it will be labeled "Great Depression or Stagflation". Great Depression-Lasted 3 years Stagflation-Lasted 16.5 years Jan 2022-July 2032=10.5 years (16.5+3=19.5 years and then divide that by 2 and you could conceivably say 10.5 years of whatever we will call it does make sense from a timeframe perspective). Either way, IFFFF we are in a mega bear market the chart won't look identical to either the Great Depression nor Stagflation...it will have it's own uniqueness and it's own name. For now, I'm just looking for the open weekly gaps on the DJI to get cleared seeing as those have ALWAYS cleared. Open weekly gaps are at 28,495.05 and 24,718.46
TVC:DJIShort
by Vixtine
3
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) May Pullback SoonShort Term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) suggest that rally from 6.17.2022 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6.17.2022 low, wave W ended at 31867 and dips in wave X ended at 30109. Internal of wave X unfolded as a zigzag structure. Wave ((a)) ended at 30331, wave ((b)) ended at 31490 and wave ((c)) lower ended at 30109. This completed wave X in higher degree. Wave Y is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave X, wave (i) ended at 30726 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 30495. Index extends higher in wave (iii) towards 31264, wave (iv) ended at 31113, and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 31614 which completed wave ((a)). Pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 30949. Wave ((c)) higher is in progress as a diagonal. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 31980 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 31504. Index then extends higher towards 32193 to end wave (iii). Expect wave (iv) pullback to end soon, and Index should resume higher in wave (v) of ((c)) to end wave Y. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W from 6.17.2022 low. This area comes at 32321 – 33691 where sellers can appear for further downside or 3 waves pullback at least.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Showcase: A quick trade on e-mini Dow Jones (YM, 25 July 2022)I recorded the video abit late: There was a nice pullback formation earlier and if you look on the left side of the chart, you can see the price was on downtrend before it made a reversal with high vol. (indicated in the video as SO, which is actually an SP based on the bar characteristics). I did set my EP at 31282 but the price volatility caught me off guard and I emotionally entered on market price. Eventually price went down to capture my earlier EP level before continue moving upwards. We managed to exit with 25pts profit for holding of less than 10mins. This shows that having a proper background and entry on Pullback would yield a good return; bear in mind that in Futures, you need to enter in and out quickly.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by mdalifalwi