XLU
MACRO VIEW: XLU STRUGGLING TO GET BACK INTO MACRO UPTRENDSXLU - the SPDR utilities sector ETF is struggling to get back into macro uptrends, while showing no bias on short term.
On long term perspective the price is trading around upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, which is a 5-year uptrend border. The price is also technically in 10-year uptrend, trading above the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean.
Thus one can only say that XLU has restored its long term upward bias if it trades firmly back above 44.
On short term basis price is trading within 1st standard deviation from both 1-year and quarterly mean, showing no directional bias at the moment.
XLU $44.16: Breaks below triangle support for further downsideXLU broke below a 7-week triangle consolidation support (as shown on the weekly chart), completing a bearish continuation pattern. Further losses risk 43.49 (March 23, 2015 weekly low) then 43.01 (March 9, 2015 weekly low) next. Below there would expose 41.40 (September 22, 2014 higher low). The 45.46 high (April 20, 2015) should cap near term bounces. Only a break above the latter would defer the downside and stabilize for 45.65 (March 16, 2015 high).
Outlook:
Short term: bearish
Long term: neutral
XLU $44.57: Consolidates after falling wedge breakout; Remains nXLU rallied off the 43.02/43.09 minor double bottom to reach 45.63 (March 19. 2015 high) before consolidating. As the indicators are mixed, XLU is expected to remain range-bound near term. Clearing the 45.63 range resistance is needed to turn bullish and confirm basing for a move towards 46.59 initially. Back below 44.02 (March 18, 2015 low) would signal a retest on the 43.02/43.09 recent range support zone.
Outlook:
S&P Sector Review - A Look at Relative PerformanceThe charts above show the performance of each sector relative to all nine sectors combined. XLK tech couldn't be included due to having only 8 panes but it was included in determining the sector ratios. Important to keep in mind that these are ratios, all prices could go lower or higher together but what I'm interested in here is purely the relative performance. Also, in order for one to outperform is ensuring that another sector somewhere is underperforming.
Top Row:
XLU Utilities, XLP Consumer staples, XLF financials and XLV Health are all breaking out on a relative basis. 3 of 4 can be considered defensive sectors. Financials are interesting in that the sector was completely demolished after the 2008 recession and appear to be breaking out of a 5 yr wedge.
Bottom Row:
XLE Energy issues are widely known. Not much to say other then its possible that they go lower longer term and return to previous levels (.10-.12 of the total). The "energy commodities are an asset class" theme may finally be unwound and if so XLE could suffer from underperformance for some time (oversold bounces excluded). XLB materials have not broken down yet but look quite vulnerable. XLY Consumer discretionary did break down and may have recently been saved by the plunge in oil. Any economic weakness and i suspect this will quickly revert and this sector could significantly underperform. XLI Industrials looks like it could break out but has not yet. The transportation portion of this sector has significantly helped this sector.
Summary:
XLU - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLP - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLF - breaking out upwards, 5 yr wedge
XLV - breaking upper trend line important since 2011
XLE - broke out down, 6 yr wedge, approaching possible long term support
XLB - approaching bottom trend line important since 2002
XLY - broke ascending wedge lower, recently bounced back towards 2013 highs
XLI - sitting at upper trend line that has been important since 2000
XLK - Not shown