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XLK

NASDAQ gave way into MayAnother down week in the NASDAQ, as expected. PReviousl expectations were generall in line, although how things panned out were more volatile... bearish for NASDAQ IMHO. The weekly chart looks even worse now than previously, and it is not about breaking below 13K conclusively. It did a swooping technical rebound, only to be a dead cat bounce, where the next session wiped out the week's worth of effort to recover 13K. This resulted in a long upper tailed candle; in both charts showing the bearish momentum and that it is more likely to continue. The 12600 light support held up for now, and given the candlestick patterns and technicals, further downside should be expected, albeit volatile attempts to test 13K. Previously marked out 11700 for next support once 12600 gives way; downside target now projected (by Fibonacci projections) at 11,100, about early to mid-June 2022. It is very possible to see a quick dip in the coming week to 11,700, then a sizeable rebound, only to push down yet again. Let's see... tread carefully. Bearish is as it bearish does.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
NASDAQ Broken below 13KBAD NEWS here... for many, not all. The NASDAQ followed through with the heavy downside momentum, and broke below 13,000! Worse, it closed the week below the 13,000 (and the 12,900 intraday buffer set out earlier). The weekly chart show nice long candles that end the weeks very close to the low or at the low, showing the continued downside momentum that is not at all easing. MACD suggest more downside in the weeks to come, although the RPM is suggesting some mitigation in the downslide. 12600 is a light support, and 11730 is the next major support (50% Fib). The daily chart is bearish clearly. Having to reclaim above 13K would also mean a gap closure above 13180. While the daily candlestick is suggesting downside momentum, the MACD and RPM are indicating some mitigation on the downside, at least for some reprieve. Overall, May does not look good for the NASDAQ NQ1! More down drafts expected. 12,600 expected to hold briefly, if at all. Next major support 11,730.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
3
NASDAQ in heavy downward momentumThe NASDAQ bounced off the first support and sliced through the second support level. Quite different from was expected, but in any case, this reveals a strong downward momentum towards the 13K support that must not be broken. To define this... should not close below 13K, but possible to have an intraday spike down to 12900 like previously. The thing here is that the Weekly candles are nice and long... so bearish momentum in the last three weeks have been strong. That said, what would this week bring? Btw... Noted that the weekly MACD had crossed down in bear territory. Not going to be pretty over the next couple of weeks!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
XLK Technology Sector: Signals of DivergenceAs the growth sector #XLK and #NDX makes lower lows there are spots of divergence displaying, which could pose as some upward impulses this week. In that case it could help to normalize a temporary ‘higher low’ in terms of the holistic outlook. My TradingView charts (found at #bsdvs23) have mostly been bearish across the board with a few ‘potential’ bullish intraday traders here-and-there based on the broader technical structure. But that is neither here nor there since the major outlook of the trends is what is most important. All that being said, signs of divergence are now signaling that this area of ‘the higher low’ (big picture) could be setting up for the next leg upward impulse movement in an effort of retesting the lower highs. Granted this will take ‘time and price’ to get to that level and coincidentally coincides with the major earnings session upon us. And I should point out the bearish side of things as well to ensure the audience has the perspective of both sides here. The downside risk is the markets heading for those March lows. Something I have been very focused on the entire month of April in my YouTube videos, Facebook posts, and postings within TradingView. All-in-all, divergence is poking its head and that should provide caution to the wind for the bears. We will keep watch and monitor the Futures Markets as well as the sector spiders and other stocks for turning points going into the economic events this week as I will notate those below. Mon, Apr 18 - 10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index - Day 1 IMF Meetings - 4:00pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Tue, Apr 19 - 8:30am Building Permits - Housing Starts - Day 2 IMF Meetings Wed, Apr 20 - 10:00am Existing Home Sales - Day 3 IMF Meetings - 10:30am Crude Oil Inventories - 2:00pm Beige Book Thu, Apr 21 - 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Unemployment Claims - 10:00am CB Leading Index - Day 4 IMF Meetings - 10:30am Natural Gas Storage - 1:00pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks Fri, Apr 22 - 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI - Flash Services PMI
AMEX:XLK
by bsdvs23
NASDAQ delivered as expected, and continues...Previously heads up , The short week filled in as expected with a continued breakdown below the weekly 55EMA. This is bearish confirmation (without doubt) that the technical bounce is done. On the weekly basis, a higher low or a return to 13K is in the cards for the weeks following. The daily charts show the weak rally and the week ended with an overwhelming outcome, in the form of a "bearish engulfing"; not quite so as it did not totally engulf from the open, nonetheless, you can obviously see the bearishness. The first support to bounce is not expected to hold, and perhaps the second support would hold better. Failing which, 13K is the support to look towards. Daily technicals are in bearish territory, so expect some downside after the Easter weekend. At this point, it is not (yet) looking extremely bearish. Not yet. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
NASDAQ... Oh BearThe NASDAQ is in somewhat of a freefall state having broke down very quickly over last week and one day this week. The breakdown came after warnings with upper tails in the weekly candle, as previously warned. And then the breakdown of the weekly 55EMA. The daily chart shows the clear indications as well as long decisive bearish candles clice through the supports. 13775 (red support line) is the immediate, albeit weak, support. 13520 (gray line) probably a better bounce support. Daily technicals (MACD and RPM) are bearish. It is only 12 April... not even 10 May.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Growth vs Value. Technology vs Energy.While these two charts aren't the same, they are very similar. The top chart is a ratio chart of ARKK vs Berk.B. The bottom chart is a ratio chart of Tech vs Energy. If the top chart is any indication of the overall trend, then there's plenty of upside in energy still. The downside of ARKK vs BERK.B overshot the minimum downside target. This is a logical area for a bounce. The Tech vs Energy ratio looks to have a ways to go still. These rounded tops are very dependable reversal patterns. Keep your eye open for broken support lines when watching these rounded tops play out.
AMEX:XLKLong
by Breakout_Charts
Can Mega Cap Growth Make A Comeback?One of the most important, yet consistently underappreciated, aspects of technical analysis is the concept of relative strength. As a portfolio manager, one must be held accountable to some type of benchmark. And thus, if we want to outperform said benchmark, we most own things that are outperforming the benchmark! Participating in trends and capturing profitable trades is the goal that every trader and investor envisions when they enter a position. And of course, this is what indeed what we want in the end...profits. But those profits need to be greater than your benchmark, or else, what is the point? This is a concept that we at Adaptiv are constantly applying across any stock (or asset) when considering it for a position for clients. We are always looking to be involved in the strongest areas of the market. If we know that major indices, for all intents and purposes, are just the average return of a basket of stocks, then we also know that some stocks must be doing better than the average and some must be doing worse. It seems like common sense to participate in the stocks and trends that are indeed stronger than the average stock, or in our case, the benchmark. Sometimes the rotation between leading areas happens slowly as strength can stay within certain sectors and sub-industries for many months or even years. In other environments, the rotation can be quick and less-sticky, much like we saw in 2021. While we as market participants do not get to choose the pace of rotation, it is still a practice that must be constantly applied, in order to consistently create alpha. One area that is very important to the broad market is the Growth/Tech theme, and more specifically the largest capitalized stocks within that area. We know that these stocks have a very large influence on the market as a whole. When they are leading, the market usually finds itself in an easier uptrend, like we saw more recently in 2017, the first half of 2018, and 2020, following the 'Covid lows'. The relative relationship between these mega cap stocks and the S&P 500, as mentioned above, has been trendless for nearly two years. And over the last twelve-plus months, I think it's fair to say the 'average' stock has been quite a mess. And the lack of trending leadership from these important stocks certainly hasn't helped. But could a turn around be under way? We recently saw a failed breakdown (black line) in this relationship, following a well-anticipated bullish RSI divergence (not pictured). As any well-studied technician knows, the old adage "from failed moves come fast moves" can be a very important one. Given this new information, we should not be surprised if Mega Cap Growth stocks substantially outperforming in the coming weeks, What about the most important names within this area? What stocks could we look at for clues as to where the broader relationship could potentially go? I think Apple gives a great insight as to what other large Growth names could do on a relative basis over the short- to intermediate-term. And it just so happens that the relationship between Apple and the S&P 500 is currently sitting at a very important inflection point. Should this ratio break higher (above the purple line), I think it bodes well for Apple's peer group as well. Lastly, we know that a big chunk of the Mega Cap Growth arena consists of Tech stocks. Almost 40% to be exact. So, we would also want to look at this sector as well for any information that this theme, and thus stocks similar to Apple, are indeed moving into a period of outperformance. Similar to the first two relationships, this one has also been range bound for many, many months. However, broad Tech seems to have a little bit more short-term resistance than Mega Cap Growth. In order to increase the confidence of alpha generation from this area, I think technicians want to see this relationship rise above the blue line. If we can get all three of these relationship to confirm new relative uptrends in the coming weeks/months, I think that bodes very well not just for this subset of names, but the market as a whole. Ian McMillan, CMT Adaptiv Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:MGK
by CMT_Association
20
NASDAQ to break 13KJust an update that a few technical and correlation points suggest that the NSDAQ is likely to break down below 13K. First up, the breakdown from the consolidation zone was very strong with a gap down and runaway to form a long down candle. No lightening of momentum observed yet. Next, there appears to be a potential for crude oil price spike. In order for such a spike to occur, there must be a significant event expected to occur. Such an occurrence would also push the NASDAQ down below 13K. Noted that the lower Bollinger Band is also near 13K, so that may mitigate the downside... hopefully. Yesterday's close in the white rectangle box was indicative of downside momentum, and can expect some follow through. The yellow box is the projected extended downside expectation; which brings the possibility as low as 11,880. This is IF support breaks and close below 13K. 12,780 next immediate support below 13K.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
XLK Technology ETF - Trend Lines compared to Dot Com CrashA look at how the counter rallies in the dot com crash compare to the market since 2003. The dark red lines all have the same slope on the log scale. I just moved them to align to the peaks. You can also see that last week caused the price to break down out of the trading channel started in 2019 and then a retest Friday. This morning we are hovering under it. It is not looking too good for tech since it has both to recapture the channel and break back above the trend line anchored to Jan 2001 peak. Crossing fingers. 1W 1D Rejected off both the 20 and 200 day moving averages.
AMEX:XLK
by Dr_Roboto
NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues. In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support). That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days. Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events. I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date! Stay safe and well!!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
7
Rolling: XLK February 18th Short Strangles to March 18th 160... short straddle. Comments: Locking in some realized gains by rolling the 151/160 and the 157C/158P inverted out to the March 18th 160 short straddle. I had to do this in separate rolls, receiving 7.19 in credits for the roll of the 151/160 and 3.67 for the roll of the slightly inverted 157C/158P. I've collected a grand total of 22.07 in credits (11.035/contract) relative to a current setup value of 11.75 per contract, so am still slightly underwater in the position. As usual, will continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep from getting too directional.
AMEX:XLK
by NaughtyPines
4