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GoldViewFX - WEEKLY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see weekly chart update As advised last week 1710 Goldturn was being challenged by weekly chart EMA5. EMA5 cross and lock below 1710 would confirm movement to 1589. However, we identified a weighted Goldturn before that at 1622, which is now open and can act as support. This zone is a strong support structure for the weekly setup We now also have the MA200 touch, which we have been waiting for. MA200 may now provide some dynamic support to EMA5 for a Bullish recovery. However, a crossover with EMA5 will see further movement down. As always, we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plans throughout the week. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
XAUUSD Following the Rate High. Will it really rebound??Gold (XAUUSD) despite the enormous volatility after the Fed Rate Decision yesterday (0.75% Rate Hike), held the 1653 Support. At the same time though it held and got rejected on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance. Technically, the medium-term trend (as well as the long one) has been bearish within a Channel Down since the August 10 High. As long as its top is not breached, the short-term target is the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), limited on the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (1616). The recent Lower Lows though have been formed while the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been holding its Support Zone. The last time we saw that pattern was during the July 06 - July 21 Lower Lows. The RSI then bounced on its Support Zone and Gold rallied to its 0.618 Fibonacci level that was eventually the August 10 High. As a result, we are willing to buy the break above the current Channel Down and target first the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fib (1749) in extension. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsThe Greenback remains firm and strong ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. During the course of last week's trading, we witnessed a significant breakdown of the demand zone at around the $1,700 area to incite a bearish signal. So, is the price going to retest the $1,700 zone to confirm a selling momentum or will there be an opportunity to buy right above the $1,700 this week? Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
7
XAUUSD Trading plan after the key 1680 break!Gold (XAUUSD) broke the 1680 long-term Support level last Thursday, a level that has been holding since March 08 2021. As we mentioned last week, the continued rising bond yields are a main reason of this market breaking this psychological Support. On today's analysis, we will focus on the 1D time-frame and how to trade the medium-term under the new dynamics. First, the 1680 break came after a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which technically adds up to the downtrend. This shows that the major market participants never intended to allow Gold to break upwards. In addition, we see the price today being rejected on the 1680 level, on its first test as a Resistance. On the short-term, this adds more weight to the selling side as it discourages dip buyers. If the conditions don't change, we expect a new bearish leg that can reach as low as the 1.5 Fibonacci extension on the medium-term, which is at 1618.50. We are modeling this out of the bearish sequence of mid-January 2021 - early March 2021, which as you see had a similar set of parameters: fake out above the 1D MA50 (circle), followed by an instant sell-off and a dead-cat-bounce that was rejected on the 1D MA50, which only gave way to the final 1.5 Fib flush. Notice how the MACD on the 1W time-frame between the current sequence and that of 2020/21 are similar. On the other hand, a new break above the 1D MA50, will most likely not be a fake-out this time and since it will break above the Lower Highs trend-line of the March 08 2022 'Ukraine-Russia' High, it should be enough to reverse the medium-term towards the 1808.50 Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
XAUUSD Crashing! Huge long-term bearish breakout! Caution buyersGold (XAUUSD) is crashing today as it broke below the 1680 Support, which is a level that got test 3 times since March 2021 and held. This is a major bearish break-out for the yellow metal and comes to confirm the analysis we posted 2.5 months ago on July 01, that went under the radar: That was when we warned that Gold could be on the brink of collapse as on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, it has broken below its 1W MA100 (red trend-line) in a pattern similar to February 2013. Well the 1W MA100 was never recovered and today this is a confirmed bearish break-out, giving us the opportunity to update on that analysis. This time, we have added the U.S. 10 year bond yield (US10Y displayed by the green trend-line), which in our opinion is the fundamental reason behind Gold's sharp selling. As this correlation shows, every time the US10Y was rising aggressively, Gold followed a negative correlation and was dropping aggressively. We have depicted those mini moves (on the 1M scale, otherwise they represent multi month moves). The current move though is a major one, even for the 1M scale as it is getting extremely close to the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which has basically been the pivot within this 11 year Channel. In April 2013, the break below it saw the price extending the selling sequence below the 1M MA50 for the next 3 years that only broke above it again in June 2016. This is a potential scenario if Gold closes below the 1M MA50 and gets rejected on it upon re-test. This time however we have the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) coming in strongly (currently at 1292 but rising rapidly), which has been untouched since August 2003 and can make contact with the price around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, assuming the trend continues. This is also in-line with the 1M RSI, which as you see is within a Channel Up since the 2011 High. As a result, we may see this time a rebound just before we hit the 1M MA200. Back to the US10Y, like we said, the more it keeps rise, the lower it will push Gold. The reason is that the bonds are also a steady and safe asset, thus a direct competitor of Gold, which at the same time offers yields. It is reasonable to see risk-averse investors flee Gold and move capital to bonds as long as the yields rise. So what can be next now? We saw in December 2013, that even though the US10Y reversed downwards, Gold didn't stage a rebound but instead entered this 3 year structured sell sequence below the 1M MA50. It appears that the US10Y is preparing for that move in the coming months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Double bullish break-out. One last level to go.Gold (XAUUSD) offered us a great double trade following our previous analysis, as first it was rejected on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) back near the multi-year Support and the rebounded back to the Lower Highs trend-line of the August High: Now the price broke above both the 4H MA50 and the Lower Highs trend-line and as expected, is consolidating around the Pivot Zone. The last time it did so for that long was from July 22 to July 27. With the 4H MA50 holding as Support, the price then had a 2-week aggressive rally to the 1808 High, which is now our Resistance. We expect a similar consolidation before another strong rally. The 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is now the Resistance to beat which will break that consolidation. Notice also how the RSI on the 1D time-frame has been rising since the September 01 low on the Oversold Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD Rejected on the 4H MA50. Trading plan ahead.Gold (XAUUSD) closed its 3rd straight red week on Friday which erased all of the gains of the mid July - August gains. On our August 16 Gold post, we expected some relief but of course this selling is heavier than expected: Still, as long as the multi-year Support of 1680 holds, a new rebound to at least the 1800 Resistance Zone is possible. However, the price needs to break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which rejected the short-term rebound yesterday and preferably the Lower Highs trend-line since the August 10 High. Added pressure is given by the Pivot Zone, which is now acting as Resistance (previously a Support). A bullish factor is the fact that the 1D RSI hit its Oversold Zone. A break above the 4H MA50 can target the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50 (orange and red trend-line respectively) cluster and after a potential re-test of the 4H MA50/ Lower Highs trend-line as a Support this time, then target the 1800 Resistance on the medium-term. On the other hand, a break and weekly closing below the 1680 Support, can turn the trend Bearish long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION According to the analysis given to XAUUSS earlier, the TREND LINE is BREAKING and going down about 150 PIPS. We hope you get it. We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. So we have to wait a bit until we get them. The reason is that in this week, some very important DATA such as MANUFACTURING DATA, LABOR DATA etc. should be received. They can definitely have a very positive effect on GOLD. Anyway, with US10Y UP, GOLD is going down a bit now. Anyway, we expect GOLD to go down to 1671 LEVEL. Before that you can definitely move to 1760 LEVEL GOLD. Stay tuned.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall
XAUUSD on a Support. Trading plan ahead.Gold (XAUUSD) has been pulling-back on Lower Highs since the August 10 High. It is trading below all short-term MA periods, the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). However having hit the 4H Oversold Zone and the (red) pivot, which is the high volatility range, it is likely to rebound. Best to engage with longs only if the 1D MA50 breaks, which had the last rejection on August 25. A break below the Pivot Zone should test the 1680 level (multi-year Support). Only a break above the 1D MA200 (green trend-line) should be capable of restoring the long-term bullish trend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
4
XAUUSD Successful rejection as expectedIt was only last week where we first called for some relief following Gold's (XAUUSD) 4 straight green weeks rally: The rejection has been successful and the price is now approaching the Pivot Zone (red) made of a similar fractal back in August - September 2021. The 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has crossed again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 27. The same happened on September 16 2021 (red flag). This short-term pull-back shouldn't alter the medium-term bullish trend, as shown by both the 1D RSI, which remains on Higher Highs and the 1D MACD (histogram on Higher Highs and Higher Lows, but on Bearish Cross). Perhaps it would be best to wait for a break above the 1D MA50 again for a safer buy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
XAUUSD on 4 straight green weeks. Some relief next?Gold (XAUUSD) has completed four (4) bullish 1W (weekly) candles in a row since the mid July bottom. This is its longest green weekly streak since December 2021. Having broken last week above the Lower Highs trend-line from the March 08 Top, Gold quickly re-tested its 1D MA50 (green trend-line) as a Support. The overall long-term outlook hasn't changed since our July 08 idea: The next Resistance to overcome is the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) - 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) cluster, which happens to be just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. We may not get a real move for months, as Gold has previously traded sideways within the 1750 Pivot line and that Resistance cluster, from late June 2021 to early February 2022 and the Ukraine - Russia war that helped it to fundamentally break upwards. So it is our opinion that unless XAUUSD closes above the 0.5 Fib level, a lot of low risk sideways opportunities exist within roughly 1750 - 1830. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot