XAUUSD - Gold trading strategy, selling trend continuesWorld gold prices this morning continued to decline with spot gold down 19.3 USD to 1,949.4 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 1,955.7 USD/ounce, down 17.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
The gold market witnessed its third consecutive decline as investors looked for new signals about the US Central Bank's interest rate stance.
Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that traders will start looking at economic data and potential actions from the US Central Bank and gold will react based on whatever data brings. According to this expert, it is difficult for gold to gain momentum if data does not show economic weakness.
Recently, in their speech, a series of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials kept a balanced view on the central bank's next decision, but noted that they will focus more on more on economic data and the impact of higher long-term bond yields.
Gold is an asset that is very sensitive to rising US interest rates because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing assets like gold.
Xauusdsignals
The secret to making 200K profitHello everyone, this is Antonio. Because the original TradingView account expired, I stopped updating articles for a while.But my trading did not stop.To be honest, I am not a financial writer, but a loyal trader, so I pay more attention to combining the market to develop my own trading plans and trading signals, and I am keen to participate in market trading.
Fortunately, in the past three months of trading, I have made a profit of more than$200K, which I think is a good number.Of course, I occasionally lose money during the trading process, but I have always been clear about my goals, strictly follow the trading plan, implement risk control management, loyal followers with a 95% winning rate, and strive to achieve the goal of a stable weekly profit of$20K.So one thing I often say is to walk with wealth and make a profit in the most correct way!
For the current gold market, gold has now stepped out of the 1990-1980 price range and has chosen to run downwards. It is currently trading near the 1965 position.Then according to the current trend structure, gold has not shown a low point, then gold will still seek support downwards, and gold is bound to touch the 1953 position, or even near the 1945 position.Then when we participate in gold trading, we only need to follow the trend and short gold at high levels.The top first pays attention to the resistance of the 1974-1976 area, and the bottom first observes the defense of the 1960 position.
In fact, as long as you grasp the rhythm, it is easy to profit from gold trading. If you don't know the exact rhythm of trading, you can execute it according to my trading ideas.I will post my trading ideas every day, and I will also post free trading signals on time.Many friends have very helpful feedback.If you want to learn the logic of market trading, or you want clear trading signals and get more profits, I can satisfy you, be sure to follow the bottom of the article to view the details!
Golden Monday Strategies and Signals
Gold, last Friday's non-agricultural benefit was good for gold, once again showing the momentum of an upward breakthrough, and it started to retreat after hitting the highest level near 2004. Unfortunately, this upward wave did not have too much continuity, but the speed of the retreat was also too high. Soon, as the saying goes, the long and short positions in the short term will once again fall into a certain degree of shock. There is not much controversy in the follow-up on Friday night, it is just a small shock, and for now , Friday’s counterattack is likely to be the last washout for the shorts. Judging from the support effect of the daily line, the upward strength of the bulls has weakened, the support effect is somewhat shaky, and the key pressure port above will also remain at the 2000 line , then this position will also be an important suppression point for gold next week, and the support below is also Friday’s upward starting point 85 line. At present, the overall trend is still bearish on the market, and next week gold will still be around below 2000 Go short.
Short-term operation strategy:
sell1999-1997 sl2005.5, tp1988-1985
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XAUUSD Channel Up into Head and Shoulders? Which will prevail?Gold (XAUUSD) is heading into today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report trading on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) within a Channel Up pattern. Even though the volatility will be great coming into the report, we should trade this on a candle closing approach.
A 4H candle closing above the 1993.50 Symmetrical Resistance, will be a bullish signal, targeting 2020, which will be a typical +2.70% rise as the previous two bullish legs of the Channel Up.
A 4H candle closing below the 1970 neckline and more importantly the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), will be a bearish signal for us and we will target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1930.
Note that the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. However the previous one on October 27 failed to turn the trend bullish and instead formed the (so far) top of the Channel Up.
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XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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XAUUSD UPTRENT CONTINUE V BOTTOM 29.10Reason Behind XAUUSD Bullish Continue
1. Market Clearly Breaked Trendline @ 1925
2. Uptrend Continued since it breaked the Resis 1060 later 1980
3. Single Bullish Spinning Top candle confirms the further High
4. Three white Soldiers Confirms the asset make the correction and move the Swing High
5. Continue V Bottom Confirms the futher Pullback and retest @ 1980 and make Ath
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD BUY @ 1980-90
SL 1960
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsOn Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell joined his teammates in endorsing a stable interest rate policy, providing further support for the XAUUSD. Amidst increasing geopolitical risks, with the conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading to more countries in the region, Gold extended its weekly rally and reached the $1,990 area for the first time in five months on Friday. This surge in Gold prices is driven by safe-haven flows as investors seek to reduce risk exposure, combined with a downward correction in US yields.
Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has indicated the possibility of a rate cut in 2024, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy if economic conditions warrant it. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester has also expressed that the Federal Reserve may be at or near the peak of its rate hike cycle, emphasizing that the central bank will closely depend on incoming data for its decision-making process in the next monetary policy meeting.
As we look ahead, this week's economic calendar will feature key events such as US flash PMI data, the release of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on its preliminary reading, Durable Goods Orders, unemployment claims, and the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, the core PCE.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $1,985 zone will remain our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then the breakout of the $1,985 will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if selling pressure persists below $1,985 just as it had done in the last 5 months $1,900 we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,900 zone.
Stay tuned for more thrilling updates on the Gold market! Hit the like button if you found this analysis helpful, and don't forget to subscribe for more insightful content! 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it
The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt.
The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935.
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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold prices showcased an impressive rally, primarily propelled by mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to refrain from further interest rate hikes this year. The precious metal exhibited remarkable resilience, bouncing back swiftly from a knee-jerk reaction triggered by the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, which revealed higher-than-expected headline inflation, exerting bearish pressure initially on Thursday.
However, gold quickly regained its footing as traders placed their bets on an unchanged interest rate decision by the Fed in its upcoming November monetary policy meeting. This confidence was further bolstered by the CPI's core inflation reading, which softened in line with market expectations.
Adding to the positive sentiment, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker offered a neutral perspective, stating that concerns about persistent inflation were notably absent in recent data. This assurance reinforced the belief that the central bank would maintain the current interest rates, providing a supportive backdrop for gold prices.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The range between the $1,900 and $1,930 zones will remain our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullishullish momentum is sustained then the $1,900 and resistance of the descending channel will serve as platform for new highs. However, if price breakdown/retest the $1,900 we could witness a renewed selling pressure.
Stay tuned for more thrilling updates on the Gold market! Hit the like button if you found this analysis helpful, and don't forget to subscribe for more insightful content! 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Gold: Planning Strategies Today
Today's trend seems a bit dull compared to yesterday. The white market fluctuated in a range of less than 10 US dollars. I believe everyone has been sitting there all day without knowing where to start. However, no matter how the market goes during the day, the trend is still maintaining a good bullish trend. In the evening The operating idea is still the same as the white market, maintaining the low and long operating strategy!
Since the situation between Palestine and Israel, the risk aversion in gold prices cannot subside in a short period of time. Just like the previous situation between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold has increased by nearly 300 US dollars, and now it has only increased by 130 US dollars. Don’t be afraid that there is no room. With the current situation, Director Wang will at least wait until the 2000 mark before giving up! Unless the gold price falls quickly below the support of 1935 at this stage, bulls will be willing to temporarily stay on the sidelines!
The one-hour trend, so far, shows that the bulls are strong and the gold price has very little retracement. With such a strong trend, even if the current gold price valuation is on the high side, short positions are very tempting to most investors, but they would rather miss it than take the risk. try! Technically, the moving average support continues to diverge upward during the day. The first support is currently at the 1949 line, and the current trend line support is at the 1936 line. The stable operating strategy is to wait for the price to fall back to the 1940-1943 line before continuing to do long positions. The market outlook target is first Look at the previous high of 1963 and then look at the historical pressure level of 1885!
XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up:
The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that.
Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2).
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XAUUSD: Lucrative week, next week
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalated sharply, and panic helped gold jump more than $60.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve spoke, sending a heavy signal, or ending the pace of interest rate hikes.
Next week brings the focus of the Fed's frequent speeches, especially whether Powell has brought surprising remarks.
Next week watch for a continuation of the rally above 1920, with new highs continuing to see resistance pressure in the 1947-1950 area.
At the same time, if the market continues to fall back and adjust, it has fallen below the 1920 position and continues to see support at the 1900 position.
We also made a profit of nearly 150 points this week, and next week we will focus on whether the conflict escalates!
If you are confused about trading, please join me, I believe you will have a great harvest!
XAUUSD WAR BUY ANALSYSIS 15.10.23 Reason For XAUUSD Bullish
1. Breakedout the Strong Trendline of 1920 and now readt For Retest
2. Decending Broadening Wedge Pattern Continued and make the swing High as Traget 2074
3. Bulllish Flag Pattern Makes the futher Buy Movement with swing Low as sl 1880 and to 1980
4. Due to Isreal Palestine Issue the GOLD expected Emerge Movement
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD BUY @ 1915-20
SL 1880
TP1 1960
TP2 1990
WAR TP 2074
XAUUSD: Today's gold analysis and advice
The day will focus on the United States September import price index monthly rate, the United States October one-year inflation expectations, the United States October University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, according to yesterday's data performance, the evening data will be biased towards bearish gold prices, coupled with 2023 FOMC voting committee, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Harker on 2023 economic prospects speech.
From the daily line, the Bollinger band closed, the gold price yesterday rose to the first line of 1885 dollars, that is, near the Bollinger medium rail resistance, which is also an important support position for gold in late August, a place where the top and bottom conversion, breaking through this position to open the space above.
4 hours, the Bollinger belt has signs of closure, the price of gold in the upper track near the resistance after the pullback, in the impact of the data back to yesterday's 1870 support line, did not form an effective break, then, the day's gold prices are likely to maintain in 1870-1875 this range of oscillations, before not falling below the 1870 line, gold short line or more shocks, Even if it is to fall, there will be a second test resistance process, today's gold price short-term attention above the 1885 line of resistance, below the 1870 line of support.
Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bullish above 1865, target 1890-1900; Low probability scenario: Bearish below 1865, target 1855-1850.
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XAUUSD: Gold operation thought and analysis
Gold jumps $30 as Fed downplays rate hike.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate and is expected to expand, and the sense of panic continues to rise.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve again downplayed expectations of interest rate hikes, and the dollar ushered in a sharp retreat.
Gold extended to a new high of 1865 today after yesterday's rally.
Pullback 1853/1854 Long, target 1864-1870
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Gold- Today could be Pivotal Day for Market Direction"As explained in yesterday's video, Gold is still in a bearish structure overall.
However, after the incapacity to break under 1855 during the trading day, I decided to close my short trade with a minimal 30 pips loss and decided to wait and see.
As the title suggests, today is a very important day for Gold traders, and after inflation and FED minutes the direction could become more clear.
On one hand, as I explained, Gold is still bearish overall, and a spike up and reversal during the day could reinforce this outlook and could very well put a top in place.
On the other hand, a spike down and reversal to the upside or a direct rise and daily close near the top of the range could mean a reversal of the longer-term trend to the upside.
MACRO MONDAY 15 ~ Gold Performance During RecessionsMacro Monday 15
Gold Performance During Recessions vs S&P500
With the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve being inverted since July 2022, many leading analysts believe that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession in coming months. Many of the charts covered on our Macro Monday releases are signaling some recession concerns (not confirmations). With this in mind, we will start looking at assets that perform well during recessions. This starts with non-other than the obvious, Gold.
The aim of this Gold chart is to establish if gold is a good asset to hold during recession periods versus holding general market indices such as the S&P500. The obvious thought would be that it would offer a hedge of sorts but we want to back that up with the data and a visual.
We are parking any preconceived notions that gold is a safe haven risk free asset and we will focus purely on the data from the last 8 recessions. Lets see how Gold fares.
The Chart
The chart measures golds price movement from the beginning of each recession period to what the price was when Gold exited the recession period. The recession periods are the green and red shaded areas on the chart.
The measurement for the S&P500 price decline during the recession periods (in the table provided) is measured from the S&P500 entry price at the beginning of each recession period to the lowest price point during the recession period (not the exit value from the recession period as used for Gold). I used the lowest price during the recession periods as a measurement for the S&P500 as it illustrates the maximum damage to a portfolio holding the S&P500 index within a recession period.
Chart – Main Findings
1. The average length of the 8 recessions on the chart is c.11 months during which:
- The average return for Gold was +7.3% and,
- the S&P500 declined by an average of -35.6%
2. Based on the above figures in 6 out of the last 8 recessions Gold outperformed the S&P500 by 42.7% on average.
3. Recession 6 and 4 are the outliers which show that Gold decreased in value during these recession periods by -9.3% & -6.3% respectively, however Gold still performed better than the S&P500 in both cases (S&P500 declined by -12.7% & -16.3%).
Overall Golds performance during the last 8 recessions certainly provides an argument for its inclusion in investors’ portfolios. During these periods of market uncertainty and volatility it is highly probable that your Gold position will perform better than the S&P500 and afford your portfolio some protection from the potential average S&P500 price declines of 35.6%. It appears that you could expect an average return 7.3% for holding gold through a recession period (which is an average of 11 months). Whilst this is a very small gain, it is a relatively risk averse gain for these periods of great uncertainty.
It’s important to note that there are other assets to consider such as the Cash and Government Bonds both of which can pay a yield. If these yields are providing a higher real return (yield being paid minus current inflation) then they could be more attractive than an asset like Gold which is not providing a yield and which could decrease in value over the same period (such as in No. 6 and 4 above). There are also other commodities and value stocks to consider during recessionary periods. We will have a look at these alternatives in coming Macro Mondays to compare their performance to Golds during recessions.
Gold has established itself as popular among investors because it can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation, or deflation. Thus investors seek safety in the precious metals like Gold when they are concerned about losing real value from otherwise safe assets like cash and US government bonds.
I believe this chart demonstrates Gold is worth holding in any investors portfolio during periods of recession and uncertainty.
PUKA
XAUUSD: Next week's gold view
Late gold view: The lower support is this week's low near 1810, no matter when it can be long. The upper resistance is near the high point of 1849 this week, and once the market effectively breaks 1849, there will be a rebound, and it is estimated that it will rise to 1880. If 1849 is blocked, gold will double dip or fall back. The daily line dipped to 1810 on Friday, and peaked at around 1835 in the evening, still very much in line with expectations.
The daily line closed long under the shadow of the Yang line, the trend on Monday to rebound mainly. Daily support near 1820, touching can be long.
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