XAUUSD Long From Support!XAU-USD went down but
Has almost reached a support
Level now at 1971.5 from where
I will be expecting a rebound
And a move up !
Xauusdsignals
XAUUSD H8 - Long SignalWe were trading south of that $2000/oz price during recent trade, pulling as low as $1975/oz. Again, upside moves witnessed follow FED outlook, a lot of the pairs we follow and trade revolve around the USD and thus a soft USD means ***USD climb higher.
Still focussed on that $2000/oz support price, the D1 trend is still valid and pointing to the upside, hopefully a healthy correction from 1975 to 2040 sits us in that 2000 region for potential longs.
XAUUSDDear Traders,
Gold has shown extreme bearish momentum since last Tuesday, institutional buyers took the price all time high and dumped it. Price will continue the drop either from the current area or from 2020. Our target is 1930 region which will be 700 pips.
show some love if you agree with the idea and good luck :)
Gold- CPI could bring a new local lowOn my Monday's OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote than there is a high chance of a change of trend in Gold's price and this remain the case.
After breaking under the ascending trend line and the important 2k figure, Gold has made a local low at 1973 and, in my opinion, more loses will come.
Yesterday's spike up at 1996 offers resistance and rallies to that zone should be sold
The target is 1940 zone resistance and negation comes with a daily close above 2010-2015 zone
The market is facing expectations that gold will decline sharplyGold markets are quiet ahead of the Fed's policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of this policy meeting. The market is predicting about a 45% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in March 2024.
Gold speculators are hoping for a series of important economic data to be released soon. Important US inflation data will also be released this week.
Additionally, traders will keep a close eye on the US Treasury note and bond auctions on Monday and Tuesday.
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank all hold monetary policy meetings on December 14.
Gold price forecast
Chris Gaffney, president of global markets at EverBank, said the market is on edge with interest rate expectations. The only risk to precious metals prices next year is the Fed having to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Daniel Pavilonis, commodities broker at RJO Futures, said interest rates may pause adjustment. The precious metal will move sideways within the $2,000/ounce range this week.
Entry sell 1990-2000
TP 197x - 195x
SL 2015
XAUUSD 1D Symmetry giving a strong break-out sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually delivered the expected rejection and pull-back after hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level as we presented on our December 04 idea (see chart below):
That Monday candle turned out to be a fake-out, liquidating countless of late buy positions at the top as well as stop losses on sells. If we ignore that non-technical candle wick, we can see that the underlying pattern is still a Channel Up on the medium-term, with the price approaching its bottom.
As you might have already observed there is uncanny symmetry between the price action since the September 20 High and the sequence from February 02 until May 16. Both resulted in a Channel Up, which on May 16 broke to the downside and extended the sell-off below the 1D MA50 and to (initially) a -7.20% decline from the Channel Up Lower High.
As a result, if the price breaks below the current Channel Up, we expect not to stop on the 1D MA50 or Support 1 but rather extend towards Support 2. That will be a break-out sell signal for us, targeting 1930.
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XAUUSD 10.12.23 SELL & BUY PROJECTIONReason For Bearish
1.Bearish Engulfing Formed
2.Breaked 2012 and waiting for retest 2012
3. Approaching Next Support @ 1980
Reason For Bullish
1.Obey Strong Support @ 1980
2. Obey Golden Ratio 0.631 Fibonacci retracement
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD SELL@ 2010-15
SL 2022
TP1 1980
XAUUSD BUY @ 1980
SL 1960
TP1 2000
TP 2 2020
Riding the NFP: Is Gold Set for a 400 Pips Rally?OANDA:XAUUSD traded within a 200-pip range throughout yesterday, establishing a distinct support at 2020 and a ceiling around the 2040 zone.
The jobless claims failed to provide a clear directional cue. Following an initial dip to the support level, Gold swiftly rebounded, settling around the familiar 2030 mark.
Maintaining the stance shared earlier this week, my outlook remains bullish, contingent upon the integrity of the 2010-2020 zone and the absence of a daily close below this range.
In yesterday's post, I highlighted a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern on a lower timeframe. The pattern is now clearer, with the right shoulder forming an accumulation range. A breakout above the pattern's neckline, aligning neatly with an old horizontal support line, has the potential to trigger a robust ascent.
Considering the pattern's target of 300 pips, I anticipate an extension beyond this level to reach the 2070 old ATH zone and Monday's congestion zone.
XAUUSD The NFP is 'do-or-die' moment for this pattern.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading exactly at the bottom of the 2-month Channel Up, restrained below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which ahead of today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is getting increasing dangerous. Technically, as long as the Channel Up holds, the current level is the most optimal buy opportunity for another +11.00% bullish sequence (as the previous two Higher Highs) targeting above 2200.
With the 1D RSI though showing no divergence at all with the price's Higher Lows (as opposed to the previous two bottoms of the Channel Up), it is the first time on this pattern that a bearish break-out is so likely to take place. We will look for a break below the 2010 Support as our sell signal. Due to the usual high volatility that is expected during NFP releases, if we do get a bearish break-out, it is quite probable to reach the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) even within the day. Sell target on this, 1965.
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XAUUSD for non-farm trendGlobal gold prices rose slightly this morning, with spot gold prices up $2.4 to $2,028 per ounce. Gold futures traded at $2,045.3 per ounce, up $1.6 from the previous day.
Global gold markets were slightly volatile as investors awaited the release of key US jobs data on Friday (US time). This data is intended to help determine U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate trends.
The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a three-month low, while gold edged higher as a 0.6% drop in the dollar index made the precious metal more attractive to investors. Holders of other currencies.
Ole Hansen, a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said the biggest concern for gold right now is that markets are pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts early. Today's jobs report will therefore be part of the answer to the possibility of a rate cut.
According to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, gold is waiting for key data points in the US and the Fed meeting before making its next move. "Whether gold returns to record highs will depend on this year's final labor market data," Ahlam said.
Looking ahead to next year's gold market, World Gold Council experts recently noted that while market expectations that the US will achieve a soft landing have made gold historically less attractive, geopolitical tensions and central bank He said that combined demand for gold has made gold less attractive, which could provide support. In 2024.
Gold held above support, will it start rising?In my yesterday OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote that the situation for the medium term remains unclear, and this remains the fact so far.
However, there are some good signs for bulls:
First of all, after touching 2010 confluence support, the price reversed quickly to 2040 zone resistance.
Second, yesterday Gold has made a higher low in the 2020 zone.
Considering that, in spite of Monday's movement, the medium-term is still grossly bullish, 2010 could be a local bottom.
In the past 20 hours or so Gold remained in a range and even we have price congestion, a break looking imminent now.
I believe this break will be to the upside and in such a case, 2050 is the next resistance for traders to watch.
At this moment I'm very cautious when it comes to Gold, but 2070 is not out of the question by week's end, if bulls manage to maintain the 2020 zone intact.
P.S: In the alternative scenario, a drop under 2020, I believe, will lead to a break of confluence support (2010) and, in that case, Gold will become bearish in the medium-term.
Gold- Medium term direction remains unclearIn yesterday's OANDA:XAUUSD analysis I wrote that after the crazy Monday's price action with a new ATH followed by 3 support breaks, Gold could continue down and test 2010 next technical support.
Indeed, the price dropped and touched that level and a reversal followed.
Although this is a positive sign for bulls, confirmation is needed, and, after the strong sell-off, it could barely be a correction.
As we can see from the chart, this confirmation comes with a break back above the 2040 resistance in which case we could consider the level confirmed.
On the other hand, a break under 2010 is not good at all for bulls and could lead to a drop towards 1940.
I remain on the sideways till clarification.
COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1!
GOLD (XAUUSD) Structure Analysis & Key Levels 🥇
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Horizontal Key Levels
Resistance 1: 2142 - 2150 area
Support 1: 1998 - 2009 area
Support 2: 1963 - 1977 area
Support 3: 1930 - 1938 area
Vertical Key Levels
Rising trend line - daily candle close below that will turn that trend line
into a vertical resistance.
My focus is on a trend line at the moment.
We see a breakout attempt of that.
Daily candle close below will be an important sign of strength of the sellers.
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Gold- Turbulent times with breakouts and breakdownsYesterday was a crazy day for Gold traders with a 1300 pips volatility counted from top to bottom.
After an initial Asian open with a new ATH and a spike of 800 pips from Friday's bottom, XauUsd started to drop aggressively, but more importantly, broke under 3 important levels that should have provided support: 2070, 2050, and 2030.
The overall trend remains bullish though, and the line in the sand for bulls is the next important confluence of support at the 2010 zone, representing the point from which bulls should look for buying opportunities.
However, with the current price at 2033 at the time of writing, the best approach is to adopt a wait-and-see stance. This is precisely what I will do until the market settles into lower volatility.
XAUUSD Made new High. Is a rejection inevitable or 2250 is next?Gold (XAUUSD) has made a new All Time High (ATH) today early during the Asian session opening amidst the attacks in the Red Sea, peaking just below 2150 before being sold-off on each passing hour. Regardless of the pull-back, this managed to make a new ATH after almost 3.5 years.
There is technical evidence however showing that if the current weekly (1W) candle closes in red (which is still very early to tell as we are only at the start of it), Gold may share the fate of the previous peaks at 2082: a rejection and immediate bearish reversal towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (blue lines) from the October 02 Low on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case, we will target 1980 (0.5 Fib), which would also test the Channel's 0.5 Fibonacci level as well as the 1W MA50 again (blue trend-line).
Be aware though that the current 2-month rally is the most 'systematic' of all previous as first it rebounded on the 1W MA200 and then on the 1W MA50. As a result and while considering the Fibonacci Channel Up trend-lines, as they are applied perfectly to Gold's uptrend since 2020, if the current (or any that follow) 1W candle closes above the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level, we will buy the break-out and target the 1.0 Fib level (top/ Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel) at 2250. The risk (and as a result the SL) is low in each case.
As a side note, check how well the majority of the price action since January 2020 fits within the 0.786 - 0.236 Fibonacci levels. This range is Gold's 'High Volatility Zone'.
Also as an additional observation, check how rejection candles look on the monthly (1M) scale, which is again of course too early to tell for the current one:
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Gold to continue up after correction?In last week's analysis, I stated my expectation for growth in the price of Gold and recommended buying dips rather than attempting to sell into a potential correction.
On Friday, bulls successfully broke above the small corrective bullish flag, achieving a new all-time high and closing the session at this peak. The Asian session opened strongly, witnessing an 800-pip rise and establishing a fresh all-time high at 2150.
Presently, the price has retraced and is consolidating within the 2080-2090 zone, prompting the crucial question of what comes next. In my opinion, Gold is poised to continue its ascent towards 2150, which now serves as the new resistance level.
From a technical standpoint, I anticipate support around 2070, extending down to 2050. This range represents a potential buy zone, with a contingency plan for reconsideration if there's a close below 2050.
As per my usual approach, I am seeking a target of 400 pips or more.
XAUUSD 03.12.23 SELL PROJECTIONReason Behind XAUUSD Sell Projection
1. Obey Strong Resistace @ 2071-80 & No other Technical Reason For Fall
2. Fundamentally Dxy make the retest the Weekly High @ 105
3. In DXY we founded the Bulllish Spinning Top which Makes the XAUUSD further Sell
Overall Possible Outcomes
XAUUSD SELL @ 2071-80
SL 2095-2100
TP 1 @ 2040
TP 2 @ 2010
GOLD (XAUUSD) ATH Ahead! What is Next 🏆
What a bullish week for Gold.
The market closed approaching the ALL TIME HIGH!
Here is your plan for next week.
Bullish scenario:
if the price breaks and closes above 2074 on a weekly,
it will confirm the strength of the bulls one more time.
A bullish rally will push the prices to 2200 then.
Bearish scenario:
The market may drop from ATH as it happened 2 times in the past already.
Your bearish confirmation will be a bearish breakout of a support of a rising
channel on a daily. It will drop the prices at least to 2010.
Current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation strongly support a bullish scenario.
BUT I always say that it is safer to wait for a confirmation.
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XAUUSD: Gold successfully breached the 2050 pressure level
Gold today twice hit the 2050 pressure level, after the first shock failed to return to near 2035, we choose to be long gold in this position, and successfully reached the target position 2045, after Powell's speech, gold once broke through the 2050 pressure level, and is now consolidating near 2056, next week we can observe whether gold stands firm 2050, Wait for a pullback to near 2050 go long gold!
If you have any questions about the transaction, you can contact me and I will help you!
XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsGold maintains its position around $2,000, buoyed by a weakening US Dollar and mixed US PMI data from Friday. Despite the recovery in US Treasury bond yields, the broadly weaker dollar prevails, driven by dovish bets on the Federal Reserve amid a manufacturing sector downturn. However, the upward momentum of gold faces potential constraints as rising US Treasury yields, with the 2-year rate reaching 4.95%, could impact its trajectory. With the Federal Reserve remaining data-dependent, the forthcoming release of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions and October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures may further influence the dynamics of the USD in the coming week.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis:
In this video, we dissected the XAUUSD chart from a technical standpoint, analyzed the key levels, analyzed historical price moves, market behaviors, and buyer-seller dynamics, and uncovered potential trading opportunities.
The $2,005 zone will be our center stage for this week. Its historical significance makes it a crucial point. If the bullish momentum is sustained then the breakout/retest of this zone will serve as a platform for new highs. However, if selling pressure continues to persist below the zone, we could witness renewed selling pressure back into the demand zone at the $1,990 zone.
Dive into the latest Gold market dynamics! Stay informed for strategic investment decisions.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets #USDebt 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
XAUUSD Is it time to finally break above the 3 year Resistance?Gold (XAUUSD) entered yesterday the Resistance Zone that has been in effect for more than 3 years (40 months actually) since the week of August 03 2020. The main characteristic of this zone is that even though the 1W (weekly) candles broke within it, they all closed eventually back below it. And this is why we make this analysis today on the 1W time-frame instead of the 1D, which is about to complete a Golden Cross.
The question on everyone's mind and rightly so is, will Gold finally break past this Resistance or it will be emphatically rejected into a new round of selling as the previous 3 times? Of course there is no definitive answer but we need to look at the pattern dynamics infront of us.
The current rally since the October 02 (1W) Low has a distinct set of features that wasn't present in the other times the Resistance Zone was tested. Its bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the first pull-back found support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This indicates bullish bias of buying on key demand trend-lines that we didn't see on the previous tests.
The 1W MA50 rebound in particular basically invalidated the similarities with the May 31 2021 rejection, which broke below the 1W MA50 and was later rejected on it, turning it into a Resistance.
So what's next? Well despite the obvious different buying pressure on this rally, if the current 1W candle closes below the Resistance Zone, it will be a bearish sign. And the fact that it is such a long-term Resistance, makes a potential sell-off of significant magnitude. If however it closes inside the Resistance Zone, Gold will have made the first step after more than 3 years to finally attempt to break above it in December and make a proper new All Time High (May 01 2023 was just a marginally ATH).
What do you think will prevail? Rejection or new ATH?
BONUS MATERIAL See how successful and accurate trading on a long-term time-frame can be:
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Gold- I'm not selling a possible correctionIn my previous Gold analysis, I wrote that Gold is consolidating with bullish perspectives.
Indeed, two days ago, The price exploded to the upside, and since yesterday, it entered in a consolidation again.
Although there could be a correction, in my opinion, this should not be sold but bought into dips.
A good zone for buys is under 2030
Also, as an alternative bullish scenario, we have a small symmetrical triangle and Gold could continue its ascent after this pattern is confirmed.
XAUUSD Trade IdeaGold Moving in Triangle pattern, breaks the lower trendline and now retesting.
Mange your Risk Account to your account size.
