Gold 2,538$, Sept 24'. Sharp Decline follows ContinuationHello Traders. This is my analysis of Gold for the medium term. We have CPI forecasted to decrease tomorrow and IR anticipated to be cut next week. We may observe heavy volatility and opportunity in the market.
CPI
Consumer Prices have been decreasing
/cooling all summer
24'
Labor Market began strong but has
progressively cooled though Summer 24'
Additionally, the Labor market began relatively
strong through Q1 and Q2 24' but has eased into
Q3
Interest Rates have remained the same through
the summer 24' and remain unchanged since Sept 23'
Xauusdshort
Gold Short – Targeting Downside After Resistance Rejection Gold (XAU/USD) is currently facing resistance around the 2,518 area, where it has shown signs of rejection. This presents a potential short opportunity, aiming to capture downside movement as the price pulls back from this level.
Technical Analysis:
• Resistance Rejection: The price has tested and rejected the resistance level, indicating a potential reversal or pullback.
• Downside Target: The initial target for this short setup is around the 2,500 level, where support may come into play.
• Risk Management: Place a stop-loss above the recent high around 2,520 to protect against any further bullish breakout.
Market Sentiment:
• Bearish Bias: The rejection at resistance suggests that sellers are stepping in, increasing the likelihood of a downward move.
• Key Levels: Watch for any break below 2,510, which could accelerate the move towards the target zone.
This trade setup leverages the current rejection at resistance, aiming to capitalize on a potential pullback. As always, manage risk carefully and be prepared to adjust the strategy based on how the market evolves.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
#XAUUSD 15MINIn the lower timeframe, I'm looking for a selling opportunity around the 2509 zone. However, the price first needs to close below the 2499.00 level for confirmation.
Once that happens, we can begin placing limit orders.
Targets: 2500.00 / 2493.00 / 2485.00
Avoid placing any advance orders for now. Wait for strong bearish confirmation before entering.
#XAUUSD
#XAUUSD 1HBased on the 1-hour analysis, the price is consolidating near the resistance area. I'm personally looking for a selling opportunity around the 2509.00 zone.
There’s a chance the price could drop directly from here without testing our zone.
Avoid placing advance orders for now and wait for strong bearish confirmation before entering.
#XAUUSD
Gold (XAU/USD) Short Setup on 1-Hour ChartGold Short Setup – Targeting 2,480-2,470 Area Following Friday’s Selloff
After a significant selloff in Gold (XAU/USD) on Friday, we are looking to continue the bearish trend into the new week. The market has shown weakness, and we aim to capitalize on this by targeting the 2,480-2,470 area if the opportunity presents itself. If market conditions change, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.
Technical Analysis:
• Continuation of Downtrend: The recent selloff suggests strong bearish momentum, with Gold breaking through several support levels. We expect this trend to continue as the market digests Friday’s moves.
• Target Zones: The 2,480-2,470 area represents the next logical support level, where we anticipate potential profit-taking or a reversal if the market reaches this zone.
• Entry and Risk Management: Enter short positions with an initial stop-loss above the recent swing high. As the trade progresses, consider moving the stop-loss to breakeven or into profit to protect gains.
Fundamental Analysis:
• Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment is bearish for Gold, driven by a stronger USD and potential tightening monetary policy. This is likely to continue pressuring Gold prices.
• News and Events: Keep an eye on any economic data or news that might impact USD strength or Gold demand, as these could influence the trade.
This short setup leverages the ongoing bearish momentum in Gold, with a clear target in mind. As always, stay flexible and ready to adjust based on how the market evolves.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
The world is optimistic, gold bounces strongly to the 2500 areaGold Price Forecast
Experts expect that the opportunity of the Fed reducing hobby costs through 25 foundation factors is increasing, that could make gold charges prone withinside the close to time period.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity method at Saxo Bank, predicts that the August jobs variety isn't always sufficient for the Fed to reduce through 50 foundation factors on September 18. This is not going to assist gold attain new highs.
Christopher Vecchio, an analyst at Tastylive, predicts that regardless of short-time period volatility, withinside the lengthy time period, the treasured metallic will continue to be an appealing funding as worldwide authorities debt rises and hobby costs fall.
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XAUUSD sell
2515-2520
SL 2532
TP 2500
TP 2490
TP 2480
TP 2470
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Buy/Sell Scenario:
🟢 Buy:
* Break above 2529.27 with a full body candle close.
* Retest of the bearish OB resistance line that failed on the 1-hour timeframe.
* Formation of a bullish engulfing candle in the 5/15-minute timeframe to take advantage of a Buy opportunity towards 2550 and potentially higher.
🔴 Sell:
* Retest of the bearish OB resistance line on the 1-hour timeframe at 2508.26.
* Formation of a bearish CHOCH candle in the 5/15-minute timeframe with a full body candle close.
* Retest of a bearish CHOCH candle to take advantage of a Sell opportunity towards 2470 and potentially lower.
Waiting for US economic dataThe gold market continues to be in a very strong position, delaying 23.6% of its price decline. This retracement level was held recently on 4/23/24, 5/6/24 and again on 7/25/24.
You can also find support and resistance fields in the main Gann boxes at high and low levels.
Use the main Gann square 2514.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above that, the long term limit of the entry is 2775.00. The short target is the next largest Gann square at 2578.40.
Below it, there is a 23.6% return to the October 2022 low of 2422.00. Any rally that holds the 38.2% back to the 6/10/24 low maintains an extremely positive trend and could quickly reach new highs.
The dollar index (DXY00) rose +0.37% on Monday. Stronger-than-expected US economic news on Monday gave the dollar a boost. The dollar also rose on reduced expectations that the Fed will cut rates aggressively as markets are discounting the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting at 31%, down the line at 50%. following the release of the US payrolls report last Friday. The strength of Monday's vote reduced settlement demand for the dollar.
Monday's US economic news was supportive of the dollar. July wholesale revenue increased +1.1% over the previous month, stronger than expectations of +0.3% over the previous month and the largest increase in 5 months. In addition, consumer credit in July increased by +$25,452 billion, stronger than expectations of +$10.4 billion and the maximum increase in 1-1/2 years.
The current economic situation is waiting for the final CPI data to make the Fed's decision whether it is 25 points or 50 points.
Stick to shorting gold!Today we have made good profits in both long and short gold transactions. First, we shorted gold near 2498, and gold perfectly hit TP: 2488 during the decline; then we longed gold near 2492 and manually closed the order above 2496. A total profit of 140pips was made in both long and short gold transactions, which is a very good trading result!
Today, gold fell back to around 2485 again, and then rebounded. The downward momentum did not continue, and there were signs of building a double bottom structure in the short term, proving that the 2485-2480 area still has some support for gold in the short term; however, from the perspective of the gold rebound structure, the gold rebound potential is weak, and as gold falls, the resistance area also goes down. The current short-term resistance of gold is in the 2505-2510 area. If gold cannot recover this area, gold will most likely continue to test the support near 2470.
So in terms of trading, the relatively safe way is to short gold at high levels. In short-term trading, we can boldly short gold with the 2505-2510 area as resistance. I believe there will be a good profit!
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Gold price continues to go sideways - adjusting downward⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) reversed course from near-record highs and dropped below the $2,500 level after Friday's US jobs report. The mixed data lowered expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, leading to some US Dollar recovery and putting pressure on gold.
However, fears of a US economic downturn and ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas kept demand for safe-haven assets like gold steady. These factors, along with the potential start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, caution against a bearish outlook for XAU/USD.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price adjusts to a short-term decrease - creating more liquidity for the expectation of price increase to create a new ATH
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2472 - $2470 SL $2465
TP1: $2480
TP2: $2490
TP3: $2500
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2505 - $2507 SL $2512
TP1: $2498
TP2: $2490
TP3: $2480
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAUUSD: Bearish Strategy Amid Resistance Levels
Today’s bullish trades have been relatively smooth, with the price now hovering near a key resistance zone. From a technical perspective, if a breakout occurs, the next upside target would likely range between 2510-2518. However, if the price fails to break through this level in the near term, there is a high probability that we will see a move towards the 2452 support area later this week.
Overall, the primary focus for this week remains selling at higher levels.
XAUUSD: 2505-2500 resistance is not broken, boldly sellThe August NFP data released by the United States last Friday was 142,000, lower than the expected 160,000 and higher than the previous value of 89,000. At the same time, although the unemployment rate was in line with market expectations, it was actually the first decline in 5 months, which caused the gold price to rebound to 2529 and then fall to 2485.
From the daily chart, the K-line decline this time is very similar to the previous decline. If we calculate the next three trading days according to the previous rules, it will fluctuate in the range of 2470-2505. We can sell high and buy low during this period. And after 3 trading days, it happens to be the node when CPI is announced.
Therefore, from the perspective of trend and time, the probability of copying the previous market is also very high.
Now the gold price is close to the resistance of 2500-2505. I have mentioned the support and resistance of this range countless times before. Everyone knows its importance. Therefore, if nothing unexpected happens today, I will sell near this range.
XAU / USD ! 9/9 ! SIDEWAY continue to decreaseXAU / USD trend forecast September 9, 2024
According to the data, Fed interest rate probabilities fluctuated sharply. Based on CME FedWatch Tool data, at some point, traders priced a 50 bps cut with odds rising as high as 70%. Nevertheless, as the dust settled, market participants estimated that a 25 bps cut was more likely as the chances of it rose by 73%, while for a 50 bps cut they decreased to 27%.
In the meantime, Fed policymakers crossed the newswire. New York Fed President John Williams said that lowering rates soon will help to keep the labor market balanced. Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed some of his comments at a speech at the University of Notre Dame. He said, “The time has come” to begin easing policy and revealed that he was open to any size of easing.
Based on H2, resistance and EMA 200 line to set up SELL signal
/// SELL XAU : zone 2505-2507
SL: 2513
TP: 50 - 150 - 200 pips (2487)
Safe and profitable trading
Key Levels and Targets for Gold Trading
Following Friday's significant decline, gold's technical indicators are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a short-term buying opportunity at lower levels. The upper resistance zone is between 2508 and 2514, which appears strong based on current market conditions.
The probability of a direct breakout above this zone is low. Therefore, if the price reaches this resistance area, consider short-selling opportunities. For this week, the initial short-term target for the downside is in the 2478-2472 range.
GOLd possible short for 2465 & 2440Last weekly bar of the month of August in Gold is Inside bar. Range confined within the range of the previously weekly bar. First weekly bar of the month of September is Insurance bar, broker below the Inside bar low which confirmed further weakness ahead. selling zone for gold is 2517-26. stop loss above the previous two weekly bars high i.e. 2534. Target: 2465 (price may reverse back from there as a correction before further fall), next target level is 2440.
Trading signals AUDNZDAUDNZD is in a downtrend. At the end of wave 5, we can catch a BUY signal to reverse the trend when a bullish 2 Dow pattern appears on the h1 time frame. TP 1 is at the old wick peak, equivalent to RR ratio 11. When breaking the trendline, we have TP2.
BUY AUDNZD scalping small Lot now zone 1.08200
↠ Stoploss 1.08000
→ Take Profit 1 1.08400
→ Take Profit 2 1.09200
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) H4 ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a Formation of well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2500, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2440
2nd Support – 2400
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Gold prices are more unpredictable than everThe first week of September culminated in the US jobs report for August. Non-farm payrolls for the US economy increased by 142,000 jobs, up from 114,000 in July, although weaker than the market median estimate of 160,000 (Reuters). US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) fell on the news; markets also priced in a 120 basis point cut by the end of the year and nearly 40 basis points for this month's meeting.
Average hourly earnings also rose sharply in August, up +0.4% (MoM), improving on the market period (+0.3%) and the +0.2% increase from the previous release in July. YoY, average hourly earnings rose +3.8% YoY in August, also improving on both the favorable data (+3.7%) and the previous data (+3.6%).
With the economy now balanced and on track to grow at 2%, it is now time to ease the policy setting regime by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate,' he said, but did not comment on whether he would support a 25 or 50 basis point cut.
Sellers are determined not to let Gold reach a new ATH✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 9/9 - 9/13/2024
🔥 World situation:
Gold pulled back after failing to reach the all-time high of $2,531, dropping over 0.80% late in the North American session. Uncertainty over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 or 25 basis points in September weighed on the metal, with XAU/USD now trading at $2,493 after peaking at $2,529.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August missed expectations but showed improvement from July’s revised figures. The unemployment rate fell, and Average Hourly Earnings increased, adding complexity to the economic outlook.
🔥 Identify:
1 thing worth noting: 6 times the price of Gold touched the old peak area ATH 2527-2531, the price reacted very strongly. This shows that the momentum for price increase is still very strong, however, large funds and investors do not want the price of Gold to increase during this time, maybe after the interest rate cut
Long-term time frames, technical aspects still show that Gold is developing stably, the main trend is Up
We will soon see a new peak, a new ATH in late 2024 soon
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H2 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2505, $2530, 2559
Support : $2471, $2453
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest