Xauusdshort
The gold market will stabilize after the electionThe focus of the financial market is the US presidential election, which is about to enter a key moment. According to poll results, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris compete fiercely. However, investors are taking cues from the betting market, which has shifted in Mr. Trump's favor.
The USD hit a 3-month high on data showing the US economy remains strong and Trump's victory is likely.
Fed policymakers are almost certain the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its November meeting. The Fed's next policy meeting is expected to begin immediately after the election US President on November 5. The Fed's first rate cut in September brought the policy rate down to a range of 4.75-5%.
Data released last week showed that the core personal consumption expenditure index (excluding food and energy prices) increased 2.7% in 12 months. Inflation has remained at this level for the past 3 months.
🔥 XAUUSD BUY LIMIT 2733 - 2731🔥
✔️ TP1: 2755
✔️ TP2: 2765
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2724
🔥 XAUUSD SELL LIMIT 2753 - 2751🔥
✔️ TP1: 2745
✔️ TP2: 2735
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2760
Gold retracement to 2717Gold to retracement 2717 is the next step on xauusd, as dollar falls to euro going upwards and Au going a bit down in price in the market, maybe you can short even more Xaueur, not sure (cause I didn't make the analysis) at the spot (euro)
Gold going down, euro going up, and usd going down, be careful with the elections day
XAU/USD shorts from 2,760 or Longs from 2,720This week, my analysis suggests that gold may continue to drop, targeting the trendline liquidity formed below. Once that liquidity is taken out, I anticipate a bullish reaction, potentially around the demand zone I have identified. If the price retraces up to the supply zone, I’ll look for potential sell opportunities to follow this short-term bearish trend.
Since my overall bias is bullish, I am more inclined towards long positions due to the higher time frame outlook. However, if the price surpasses any of my nearby Points of Interest (POIs), I’ll watch for a deeper retracement around the demand at 2,680 or the supply at 2,780.
Confluences for Gold Sells:
- Price has shown a bearish shift on the higher time frame.
- Supply zones remain on both the 1-hour and daily charts.
- There is significant trendline liquidity below, providing a target for further downside movement.
- The dollar has been moving bullishly, which aligns with a potential drop in gold.
- Gold has been in a strong bullish trend and may be showing signs of exhaustion, hence the recent heavy decline.
P.S. I’ll stay vigilant and assess where the price moves first. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll have a stronger inclination to sell.
Have a great trading week!
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NF - the market becomes negative! XAU decrease⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) regain some ground on Friday, supported by uncertainty around the US presidential election and ongoing Middle East tensions, both of which increase demand for safe-haven assets.
However, rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD) could weigh on Gold. Traders are awaiting Friday’s October employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, for further direction. Strong results could reduce expectations for a softer policy approach by the Federal Reserve (Fed), potentially adding pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
After yesterday's unemployment data - good for the dollar - gold fell sharply. This could be a sign of a major correction as important NF data is released today
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2762 - $2764 SL $2767 scalping
TP1: $2755
TP2: $2748
TP3: $2740
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2788 - $2790 SL $2795
TP1: $2780
TP2: $2770
TP3: $2760
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2712 - $2710 SL $2705
TP1: $2720
TP2: $2730
TP3: $2740
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold's Local Minimum: A Magnet for Price Action?So, the trading week is behind us, and it’s time to kick back a bit, assess the price action, and build a trading plan for the upcoming week, keeping the main drivers in mind. Today, let’s focus on Gold.
Looking at the COT reports: there’s a divergence between the positions of the Commercials and the movement of the underlying asset.
What does that mean? It suggests that hedgers don’t see the need to increase their hedge positions (in the case of Gold, that means short positions). The interpretation here is that there’s a high probability of a correction in the underlying asset.
Retail positions show an average aggregated long position around $2707 (according to open-source data). So, for now, the average positions are in the green, which means the bulls are feeling good, but that’s not all... Remember that level $2707; we’ll come back to it later.
The options sentiment is mixed, with some repositioning in portfolios targeting both up and down, but with a slight bias. The specifics of these adjustments tell me that a correction is expected, but overall, the options traders still see the trend moving upward.
Now, let’s take a look at the chart and summarize.
Remember that level $2707 I mentioned earlier? Let’s find it on the chart. Oops... turns out that’s a local minimum. So, here’s the deal: there’s a level with liquidity (open positions + local minimum), in other words, we have a "magnet" that will definitely attract the prices.
Personally, I stick to a trading strategy of not trading against the trend, even if a correction is confirmed by my analysis. But for some, that potential downside might look appealing enough to open a short position.
Good Luck and Have a Nice Weekend!
Consolidation for XAUUSD
On monthly chart XAUUSD recent price level rose up about 2 of the markup started in 2018.
Volume on Oct 2024 is the highest and similar with Apr 2022.
On weekly chart, the last bar appears to be a bearish since it has a long wick and closed near open.
2790 and 2640 are likely the current resistance and support levels.
From daily chart
The recent bearish engulfing may signify an upthrust formation.
The next possible external liquidity maybe near 2628.
Silver XAG/USD Let's take a step back and have a look at bigger picture. I see two scenarios that could play out. The first is a minor retracement back toward $30-$29. The second scenario is where we have a deeper retracement down to $26-$24. In any case, both are opportunities to load up. I believe it won't be there for long.
Gold Analysis==>>Falling(Signs)Today's data release included the Core PCE Price Index , Employment Cost Index (ECI) , and Unemployment Claims . Core PCE, the Fed's key measure of inflation, saw slower-than-expected growth, suggesting some cooling in consumer prices. This could lead to a potential moderation in the Fed's rate policy if inflationary pressures continue to ease.
The ECI also grew slower than forecasts, indicating wage growth remains somewhat controlled, which also alleviates inflationary concerns. Meanwhile, the higher-than-expected unemployment claims hint at challenges in the labor market.
According to the recent economic data and the possible reduction of inflationary pressures, the desire to reduce the interest rate has increased, and this has caused the price of gold to decrease . Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD )is attractive as a safe-haven asset in times of high inflation, and deflation has reduced its demand.
Regarding Technical Analysis , Gold started to fall, as I expected in the previous post.
According to the Elliott wave theory , Gold has completed main wave 5 , and we should wait for Corrective Waves .
One sign of a further decrease in Gold can be the formation of a Bump and Run Reversal Top Pattern , which is currently in the Run phase .
I expect Gold to continue its downward trend due to the high momentum of the decline experienced in the previous hours. Drop targets can be the Support zone($2,720-$2,708) in the first step and then the Lower line of the Ascending Channel .
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAUUSD, 15-MINUTES TIMEFRAME CHARTXAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
XAUUSD touched the support level of 2,734.00
General outlook
XAUUSD has been under selling pressure within the last day. The pair moved to the support level of 2,734.00.
Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a buy stop order at 2,736.
Set your stop loss at 2,727. below the previous low ($9.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,788. ($52.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
this idea for Monday use it on Monday hope we hit our target.
NFP Set to Rock Gold: Last Opportunity for a Well-Timed ShortMarket analysis: Brothers, today's gold market continues to be bearish! The short orders arranged before the release of yesterday's data have brought us a lot of benefits, and we have seized the lucrative profits of the decline in gold. Tonight, heavy data will be released one after another: the US October non-farm employment data, unemployment rate and ISM manufacturing PMI index will form a triple impact on the gold market.
These data are expected to put bearish pressure on gold, but considering the sharp drop the day before, today's downside may be limited because the market has partially digested the bad news. Therefore, today may be the last short-selling opportunity this week. Next week, with the landing of the US election, the market is expected to turn to favor gold.
So how to arrange it, you can look at the candlestick chart, 2756-2758 is currently an important pressure point, so the strategy before the data is released is to short the market near this pressure point!
Trading strategy:
Layout before data release: short in the key pressure area of gold
Take profit target: 2735-2740
Stop loss setting: 2770
Strategy ideas to follow the trend: As the last trading day of this week, we will arrange short orders before the data is released, and start to arrange long orders next week to follow the trend.
Detailed strategies and operation points have been released to each VIP member. If you need further guidance, please join the VIP group to get exclusive strategies!
XAUUSD: NFP//Short-first, Then-longAfter the initial rebound from a significant drop, it appears the market is ready for a secondary retest of the bottom support range. Keep a close eye on the 2742-2732 support zone. Should prices drop into this range before the data release, and if the data turns bearish, expect further downside with targets in the 2718-2712 range; in case of a stronger bearish impulse, prices may fall to the 2708-2703 region.
Alternatively, if the data supports bullish movement, prices could rise above 2760. Given recent data, bearish probability seems higher, so a “short-first, then-long” strategy is advised, with careful attention to entry and exit points.
What Should You Do if You Hold Long Positions Between 2770-2750?Today, influenced by negative data, gold experienced a significant drop. After completing the take profit on my short positions, I entered long trades. I believe many of you are in a similar situation, holding long positions in the 2767-2730 range, which has led to our accounts being in a trapped state.
However, after such a large decline, a market rebound is inevitable. As long as we hold our positions firmly, we can at least expect a rebound to around 2760. Additionally, tomorrow's NFP data and unemployment rate will be released, along with several other minor data points that will certainly contribute to increased market volatility.
If the price rebounds to around 2760 before the data is published, then under negative data conditions, it is likely to drop again. However, if the price does not rebound to this level, gold will not drop too much under negative data, with 2721-2712 being an acceptable range.
In this context, next week's trading will definitely focus on long positions. So, if your orders are also in a trapped state, there’s no need to worry too much. The market always has its ups and downs; stay confident and seize the opportunities for a rebound. In the end, we will achieve better results.
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
NFP Ahead: Targeted Short Strategy for Optimal GainsMarket Insight: Great work today on capturing profits with the short trade, everyone! My VIP members and I have made impressive gains. If you're interested in continuing to secure these returns, reach out to me directly—we’re setting up for a major strategic move.
With most key economic releases for the week showing bearish outcomes, tomorrow brings one more critical release: the U.S. October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which is highly likely to impact gold negatively. We’ll continue focusing on short positions for the remainder of this week. Looking ahead, however, as the U.S. election concludes next week, we anticipate a potential shift, at which point we’ll pivot to long strategies to capture possible upside momentum.
Current Gold Trading Strategy:
Entry Level: Short gold at 2740
Take-Profit Target: 2730
Stop-Loss: 2750
Exclusive Member Strategy Update: This strategy will only be shared once today. For tomorrow’s detailed NFP trading plan, I’ll be providing specific guidance exclusively to my VIP members. If you’d like to join and get access to tailored strategies, reach out now!
I went short Gold at 2735.83. It just happended....!
I really was not on the front foot to Short gold or silver so early in the week, it just happened because a report came in on tradingview news that the middle east situation is contained more so than open war-fare and the Gold chart was begging to be shorted because there was no buying and the gold-ghost was taking a break resting under a moving average. Sorry buddy, your shorted!
Will see how it goes. Not sure what economic news is on today in the USA but I will soon find out.
Other Long trades I am on include GBPUSD, GBPCAD is looking to really break out in the Monday sessions and I am also Short on AUDUSD which I think is starting to become in-the-money. Have a good trading day and remember 'greed normally means losing money not making it'. Chris
Gold Roadmap==>>Short term!!!The recent CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings reports are both pivotal indexes for gold’s market reaction. A lower-than-expected JOLTS report , indicating fewer job openings, suggests possible economic slowing, which tends to support higher gold prices as investors look for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, if the Consumer Confidence Index shows strength, it can signal economic resilience, potentially reducing demand for gold as risk-on assets may become more attractive.
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) moved as I expected in ✅ yesterday's post ✅.
Gold is moving near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to the theory of Elliot waves , it seems that we should wait for wave 4 of Gold in the 15-minute time frame .
Also, Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Gold to decline to at least the Support zone($2,761-$2,756) and the Uptrend line .
⚠️Note: If Gold goes over PRZ, we have to wait for $2,800(at least)⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAUUSD: Shorting Range: 2796-2807The market is currently closed. On the 2-hour chart, there are three long lower shadows, indicating strong support below. Although the MACD indicator is facing a bearish crossover, the presence of this strong support suggests a potential for a second surge in volume.
Therefore, during tomorrow's Asian and European trading sessions, if the support level in the 2780-2776 range holds, gold is likely to break above the 2790 high and test the psychological level of 2800.
Additionally, tomorrow during the U.S. session, we will have the initial jobless claims data released, which I expect to have a bearish impact on gold. Consequently, the overall trading strategy for tomorrow will be to go long first and then short later.
The trading range will be set with 2796-2807 as the high range and 2772-2767 as the low range.