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XAG

Silver: The Breakout of Head and Shoulders PatternXAGUSD has completed the formation of a head and shoulders pattern with divergence on momentum indicators, and has made an initial break of the neckline. I prefer to wait for confirmation of the breakout before entering a sell position targeting 21.19. However, with the current global crisis in American and European banks, conditions may change at any moment, so it is advisable to enter and exit with caution and strict risk management. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Candlestick_OB
6
Silver Turning Up For Minimum Three Waves Silver made strong and impulsive rally since September 2022 till February 2023. A sharp drop in February from 24.50 and break below 22.50 supports suggests that metal is in a higher degree correction. That’s quite strong decline, but due to a five-wave rally earlier, we still see it as part of a complex sharp W-X-Y correction with the support here in the 61,8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and 20-19 area. We can currently see a nice bounce from the support, but due to sharp leg down previously, we are tracking a minimum three-wave A/1-B/2-C/3 recovery at least up to 22.75 area for wave C or maybe even higher and back to highs for wave 3 of a new five-wave bullish impulse. Support on intraday dips is at 21.30 followed by 20.60
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ew-forecast
We now wait for NFP!We now wait for the NFP! Here we have the silver chart in-front of us! We are currently within the range of lows: 19.800 highs: 20.450, Pattern: Triangle/ Bear flag If we are to go above key resistance area and above 50EMA + TL resistance I expect first target to be 20.750 areas and then 200 EMA areas which is around next resistance zone of 21.400. However, we are to decline with a strong NFP, I expect 19.500/400 to be your target areas. Regarding NFP checking the other data as well, see the differential of it and is it at a vast numeric change. Trade Journal
FX:XAGUSD
by Trade_Journal
Gold trader - A tactical gold play into defining event risk Gold and silver have come up on the radar and both could be a tactical play as we eye a data storm brewing over the next two weeks. One could argue that it was month-end flow, but the failure of the EUR and GER40 to be overly influenced by the above consensus French and Spanish CPI data suggests the market is becoming harder to shock by inflation reads. After the moves higher in Developed Market bond yields, as rate expectations re-price higher, one could argue a lot is in the price and the risk-reward in shifting – the gold market will be watching this closely. While there are several data points still to be concerned with in the near term, the two clear marquee events which market participants may start to position for are US non-farm payrolls (NFP - 10 March) and US CPI (14 March). Fed chair Jay Powell speaks next week, and that could spark some market volatility, but trading a speech is more problematic, as we’re fighting algo’s who are programmed to rapidly react to words. Importantly, the market has been a far big buyer of forward volatility into NFP and CPI and implying far higher intraday moves than any other date in the lead-up to the 22 March FOMC meeting. The market will tweak positioning into these defining events. Early estimates on the key US data Looking at the early estimates from analysts, we see the consensus expectations for NFP at 215k jobs, with hourly earnings expected to be unchanged at 0.3% - Consider that the 6-month average is 348k jobs, so we could loosely argue that 215k jobs would represent some cooling of the labour market – the real fate of the bond yields, the USD and gold would then fall on the outcome of the hourly earnings data. The early estimates for US CPI are trickling in – granted, how others are modelling the outcome when we see their calls later next week. At this stage, we see expectations for headline US CPI between 6% and 5.5%, a decent fall from the 6.4% that we saw in January. Core CPI is expected to fall 20bp to 5.4%. With gold so heavily inversely correlated to both nominal and real US bond yields, I question if the market looks to pair back on their rates exposure into this data – a factor which could boost the gold price. As we look ahead at these key event risks, the technicals on gold and silver have come onto the radar. As the month of Feb closed off, XAUUSD narrowly missed printing a bearish outside monthly reversal – take the timeframe into the daily, however, and we’ve seen a daily bullish reversal, with price trading below the prior bars low, but ultimately closing above the prior bars high. Is this a sign of better demand and the sellers failing to push price to $1800? Perhaps - but its early and the price action needs work to really convince - adopting a more momentum approach, I would be placing buy stop orders above Tuesday's high of 1831.15 and positioning for price to keep pushing higher through potential supply. It may be that we see price rollover and re-test Tuesday's lows, so by waiting for momentum to build and position for a body in motion to stay in motion. A break here would likely coincide with a 3 & 8-EMA bullish crossover. As with any momentum and trend strategy we get many false breaks and the strike ratio can be far lower than say mean reversion, so it’s important to cut losses early and extract as much out of the trade as possible – win/loss rates mean little for these strategies, where the focus is all about the reward to risk.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1
RLinda ! GOLD->The ABC correction is over at 0.618? What's next?Gold closed the week's session Friday with a 1.2% loss , recovering after testing lows of 1818.9, as the dollar declined from session highs The ICE dollar index was last up 0.12 points to 103.97 after earlier hitting 104.67. The 10-year bond yield also fell 2.4 basis points from the day's highs after reaching 3.922%. However, the fall in the metal's price came amid economic data this week showing that U.S. inflation rose 6.4% faster than expected in January , retail sales last month rose above forecasts, and the producer price index also beat expectations . The strong data came after the Federal Reserve signaled a more dovish turn at the end of its Feb. 1 policy meeting, but now several central bank officials are calling for a more hawkish approach to raising rates and keeping them on hold longer to push inflation toward the 2% target, which is bullish for the dollar and yields Technical Analysis: We see that the corrective 4th wave ends in the area of the formed 0.618 Fibonacci level (at 1816.22) In this area also passes a strong upward support line (dotted line), at the point of intersection formed a strong support, which caused a fairly strong price correction closer to the close of the session, where we saw a price recovery of 1.35% Friday's intraday candlestick closes at its highs, and there is a chance that the bullish pullback will continue on Monday , breaking the 0.5 Fibonacci level ( 1843.63 ). If that happens, the price will open the way to 1871 ( 0.382 Fibo ) and 1904 ( 0.236 Fibo ). Consequently, if the price soon overcomes the 1843 area and continues its strengthening, it will be possible to claim the end of the ABC correction movement, which started at the 1959 area and ended at the assumed 1816 level. If the correction ends, it would make sense in the medium to long term to expect the price to rise to areas such as. 1920, 2000, 2070, 2100 Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
41