Get started

XAG

Macro Monday 16~SIlver 2nd in RecessionMacro Monday 16 Silver Performance During and Immediately Post-Recession Over the past few weeks I have heard many financial analysts recommending holding Gold and Silver for protection against a recession scenario or at least holding some bullion as a diversifier or insurance against currency risk. Today’s Silver Chart and Golds Chart from last weeks Macro Monday are aimed at identifying how good these assets performed during the last 8 recessions. Last week we covered how gold performed during the last 8 recessions and discovered that gold provides an average return of +7.3% during recession periods whilst the S&P500 averaged a -35.6% decline. It is important to note that Gold’s price declined by -9.3% and -6.3% during 2 of the last 8 recessions, however it performed better than the S&P500 in both those scenarios during which the S&P500 declined -12.7% and -16.3% respectively. Last week’s chart of Gold demonstrated that it can offer protection during recessions whilst also potentially offering an average +7.3% return over those period. The Chart Interestingly Silver does not appear to be as protective as Gold during recession periods however it appears to make positive moves post-recession which is valuable to know as timing your silver allocation later in a recession cycle could be benefit your portfolio; 1. During 6 out of the last 8 recession periods Silver has declined in price by an average of -9%. - This is a lessor performance to Golds positive average of +7.3% over the same period. - However, Silver declines less than S&P500 which declines on average -35.6% over these same recessionary periods 2. Within a 6 months immediately post-recession Silver has increased in price 7 out of 8 times by an average of +18% (blue areas on chart) - This provides an argument for diversifying a portion of your gold or cash position into Silver late in a recession or at the end of a recession period. - Obviously timing this would be difficult however, if you had a Gold position that increased between +7 – 10% during what you believe to be a recession period, it could be beneficial to start allocating a portion of that position to Silver based on the average +18% potential within 6 months after the recession ends. There is no guarantee of course. The Silver Second Allocation Approach Based on the price history of Gold and Silver over the last 8 recessions there is an argument to not hold silver at the onset and/or during the recession itself (as silver declines -9% on avg during the recession period). At the onset and during a recession Gold has a much better record with an average return of +7.3% however, Silver can offer significant returns in the 6 months post-recession with an average return of 18%, thus as we wade closer to the end of a recession an allocation into Silver could put you on the right side of probability. No Guarantees. The Silver Long Hold Approach Interestingly if you check the data chart which I will share in the comments, you will see that Silvers overall performance (recession periods including the 6 months post-recession period) is positive with an average of +9.1%. In other words, if you held Silver through the recession period and the 6 months post-recession, the average return is 9.1%. Amazing what an additional 6 months of patience can achieve. This is where there is a potential argument to hold silver from the outset of a recession if you intend to hold it that 6 months post-recession. When you check Silvers post-recession performance (6 months post-recession), it can historically increase as high as +50.6% thus a Silver allocation does offer that upside potential that Gold does not. This adds to the Silver Long Hold Approach argument however this has to be weighed against a potential -58.3% decline during the recession period (also evident on the chart as the opposite extreme). Final Word The safety in Gold during a recession is attractive and the post-recession potential return in silver is hard to ignore. Silver can go down or sideways when gold first starts to increase, this has been the case historically and often gold increases for 18 – 24 months before silver really starts to move and catch up (I will follow up this point with a chart). I myself lean towards a later recession allocation to silver, lets say we get a 14 - 20% drop in silver with a 5 - 7.3% increase in gold, this could be a window to start building your smaller silver position from your gold or cash holding but for me, the silver position will always be smaller and allocated late into a recession. I want to emphasize there is no right approach, these are just considerations worth pondering about Gold and Silver portfolio allocations during recessions. The ultimate decision is up to you. I hope both the gold and silver chart provide you with some perspective and help keep you on the right side of probability. PUKA
OANDA:XAGUSD
by PukaCharts
2
Silver(XAGUSD) - Elliott Wave CountSilver(XAGUSD) - Elliott Wave Count this is one of the possible expected moves... pls trade with caution as the count may not be reliable. Silver - It appears that the correction wave A has been completed in the market and is expected to increase towards the Wave B target. However, the price may then decline towards Wave 2. It is important to note that if the price breaks above Wave 5, this means that the correction of ABC has already been completed, as indicated in the wxy, and is expected to advance further. Please exercise caution when trading as this information is for educational purposes only. TVC:SILVER MCX:SILVER1! CAPITALCOM:SILVER ACTIVTRADES:SILVER FOREXCOM:XAGUSD_PER0.1 OANDA:XAGUSD FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
FX:XAGUSDLong
by Treda_pro
#silver #XAG Long Term StrategySilver has broke the trend line in the megaphone channel and will there will likely be a bearish retest. If price decline comes after retest, the silver price will probably go to find the megaphone channel dip. Mid / short time , this will be a bearish movement. But in long term , after breaking this megaphone channel, silver will meet new ATHs in Q3 2024. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Do your own research and always decide with your knowledge not mine or anyone else.
TVC:SILVER
by naphyse
SILVER – 30$ COULD BE JUST AN APPETIZERObviously the re-accumulation is done. NASDAQ:XAG has found its Climax around 14$, played in Phase B for 6 years with an attempt to 21$ thus creating an UpThrust, till “COVID”, where price collapsed to 11$, found “some” buyers that sent price to the opposite direction. As you can see JAC is obvious ; BU seems to be done as well, bullish divergence confirmed. This “b shape” is clearly identified, with a SOS scenario definitely confirmed, 30$ seems to be just an appetizer. If we zoom out on a bigger TF, it looks like MM rushed out PA for 6 years before it re-integrated the Fork, kissed the Mid Range (what we called JAC), sitting on the “Preliminary supply” (what we call the UpThrust). What next ? Little flashback. 2022 was a year of sharp contrasts between silver’s fundamentals and institutional investor attitudes towards the metal; while the silver market saw what may well have been the largest deficit on record, professional investors were indifferent or bearish for much of the year. This year was not lost for Bears. blacksquare.finance The downward pressure on silver prices from this further boosted physical demand. This was perhaps most pronounced in India, where on top of already exceptionally strong demand, low prices encouraged the entire supply chain to replenish its stocks. This followed two pandemic-hit years of inventory draw-downs. There were other, price agnostic, drivers of demand growth last year. Most notable among these was the strength of industrial fabrication, in large part linked to the robust solar industry, but also reflecting a postpandemic recovery in a number of other markets. Indeed, were it not for China’s zero-COVID policies, global silver demand would have likely been even greater than the all-time high of 1,242.4Moz (38,643t) it realized in 2022. A lack of supply gains was another factor contributing to last year’s deficit. Limited organic growth, project delays and disruptions resulted in a marginal decline in mine production while recycling barely rose. All this culminated in a 237.7Moz (7,393t) deficit, most likely also an all-time record. (There is some uncertainty, as differences in definitions, coverage and methodology between Metals Focus and past data providers to the Silver Institute complicate comparing balances over the past few decades.) Importantly, the combined 2021 and 2022 deficits more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years. blacksquare.finance India WSS published last year a Changing Landscape of Indian Investment. India was currently the world’s third largest silver physical investment market after the US and Germany. The bar market in particular has been extremely successful, with around 500Moz (16,000t) bought cumulatively over the last 10 years. This partly reflects a lack of other silver investment vehicles, such as ETPs and digital products, both of which are available in the Indian gold market. For instance, digital gold was introduced in 2016, while mutual funds first launched gold ETPs in 2007. That said, the silver investment market is slowly changing, with digital silver and silver ETPs both launched last year. Looking at these themes in more detail, the growing popularity of e-commerce apps has meant that the likes of Amazon and Flipkart have been selling silver bars online, which can be physically delivered. However, holding physical silver comes with space constraints and security issues. To address these points, digital silver was launched by DIGIGOLD and Kredx; more will no doubt follow should their popularity grow. These allow silver to be bought online, and then have it stored in a vault. Once purchased, the silver can be sold directly for cash, or redeemed in physical form. In addition, the ability to invest as little as one rupee, the ease of transacting, transparency, and the ability to buy/sell at any time make it an attractive product. That apart, in 2021 the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the securities and commodities market regulator, allowed the launch of silver ETPs. Although several mutual funds issued silver ETPs, three are active, Aditya Birla Sun Life, Nippon India and ICICI Prudential, with a combined AUM of Rs 6.3bn ($82m) as of February 2022. Silver ETP fund-of-funds (a fund that invests in its own ETP) were also launched by Nippon India and Aditya Birla Sun Life. Other asset management companies have also filed scheme information documents (SIDs) to launch ETPs. Even though these products are relatively new, as retail investors become more comfortable with them and as financial literacy improves, we expect such products to become more popular. Although there will be some market share loss for bar demand (religious motives drive coin purchases), ultimately, we expect total Indian silver investment to grow. Russia-Ukraine Among the key drivers of the silver price in 2022 was the jump in geopolitical concerns following the start of the Russia-Ukraine SMO. This in turn exacerbated inflationary pressures as commodity prices soared, particularly in the energy complex. Likewise Cryptoassets, precious metals investment continued to benefit from nominal rates still being low and real rates negative at the beginning of the year. This, combined with worries about stagflation or even a recession, kept price expectations positive and in turn encouraged retail investors to buy hard assets including physical silver. The steep decline in LBMA silver stocks, along with the phenomenal jump in Indian silver imports, also gained much attention last year, contributing to the positive retail sentiment. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine issue in early 2022 initially benefited both gold and silver; the gold/silver ratio was stable in a 75-80 range for much of Q1. Precious metals came under pressure, however, from late April as aggressive rate hikes by the Fed pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields higher. This raised the cost of holding precious metals for institutional investors and, with silver’s higher beta, the ratio widened to over 85. Expectations of sharply higher interest rates in the US were also joined by growing recessionary concerns and this fueled more underperformance by silver, as the metal suffered both as a precious and an industrial commodity. These pressures saw the gold/silver ratio touching 95 by September. A pullback to back below 80 then emerged towards the end of the year amid expectations that the Fed would slow its pace of rate hikes. Silver underperformed early on in 2023 despite tailwinds from China’s re-opening and the benefit provided to industrial metals as expectations that the Fed would adopt a more dovish stance encouraged investors to buy into gold. Amid all this, institutional and retail investment sentiment diverged at times during 2022. Geopolitical uncertainties, concerns about growth and inflation, all supported retail interest throughout the year. This was especially true when professional activity weighed on silver, as retail investors, particularly in North America and Europe, took advantage of ensuing low prices to purchase silver coins and bars, pushing combined sales in these two regions to the highest total in Metals Focus’ series. Indian physical investment saw a stunning recovery after two-years of below par demand, as lower prices and investment holdings starting the year at a low level led to renewed buying. blacksquare.finance Mexico – The Catalyst. Mexico just reported its steepest decline in annual production of silver in 4 years, which is notably worse than during the Covid lockdowns. Not forget that Mexico is by far the largest producer of the metal in the world today. The supply of silver remains remarkably constrained, and if this is indeed the beginning of another gold cycle, the metal could be worth multiples of its current price. Otavio (Tavi) Costa (CRESCAT CAPITAL) confirmed that Gold is about to reach record prices on a monthly basis. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe silver won’t follow the same path. That alone would imply a 110% return from its current levels. Relative to M2 money supply, silver remains one of the cheapest tangible assets in markets today. If the current inflationary issues prove to be structural, we are likely entering a secular bull market for precious metals. Key Level If we consider this a failed structure, it is no less that PA is out of the Fork (MarkDown). What we have consider as a BackUp few charts above, could be called a Spring, with a pull back on the MidRange (as luck would have it on 0.618 Fibo18 retracement!) – LPS. And once again, it JAC, plus 3 taps on 0.618. With the reduce of the volume, could be a Sign of the insistence to break it definitely. Mid Range might be the 1st Target, 50$ the second. 26.9$ (VAH19 might be the Key) If it happen, the journey still remains long. This is not crypto, this is a commodity. Even if PA has re-integrated the range, it currently trading below the POC20 (23.89$). 26.9$ (VAH) should be broken. This will confirm a definitive exit and here the “Creek” (BU) could be the LPS before take off to 30$. If it fail with a clear re-integration, it should drop below 20$ to confirm any Bear scenario.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn6367453
XAG/USD | The Downtrend Begins - Time to Short!👋 Good day, traders! 📉 XAG, after being in a sideways trend for three months, is breaking the $22.43 level with a weekly candlestick pattern, signaling a short towards three target levels: $21.70, $20.60, and $19.23. I recommend considering sales from the aggressive level of $21.20 and the conservative level of $22.00, expecting a potential profit range of 1.5% to 12.5%. SL is set at ~$22.60. ✅ Give a 👍 if you want more insightful and profitable trading ideas❗️ ❓ I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. What's your take? DISCLAIMER: This idea is purely informational and educational and is not a trading recommendation. Each trader should analyze and make decisions based on this information independently.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Maxim_Lushnikov
XAG / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > FX:XAGUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas which will be relevant in the next hours & days. The highlighted scenario is supported by the higher timeframes, which we are ACTIVELY monitoring in an existing post. This can be found under the following name: " XAG / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES " (Listed under this post at "RELATED IDEAS") As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) We are in a superior and inferior downtrend channel, which served as very good resistances in the past. In most price action indicators, we are in over bought areas (HTF) which will be reflected in price action (ITD) in the near term. In the smaller timeframes, a divergence is starting to form, which serves as additional confirmation for the trade in all the resistance areas. In intraday, this calls for a SHORT - SWING - entry, but caution is advised; the price is still not unlikely to break through the levels and continue its rise. # Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT Z - Don't let the noise blind you; recognize its face and use it for yourself - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
34
XAG / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas. | This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions | In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:XAGUSD < We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months. As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below. This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " XAG / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels) Once published, it will be added as a comment, and when this post is saved, you will receive a notification about it. How do I save an idea so that I receive a notification when it’s updated? MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI) The price is below the mid-trend line of the oldest and most influential trend channel, which originated in 1971. Additionally, we are at the upper resistance line of a slightly younger trend channel, which formed in 2011 and has served as resistance since 2020. The "Higher High" of 2008 will serve as our next support, as well as the zone formed around it (21,355 - 22,000). In our recent trend channel, another subordinate trend channel has emerged, which is currently contested. Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs show declining momentum, which is additionally noted in the daily TFs. The daily "moving averages" have all broken through the 200s and are now serving as resistance. Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z | ZielIstDieAutarkie | If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you and happy trading! Z
OANDA:XAGUSD
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
12