UPl | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases👈
Price Action Analysis
And this is the accumulation stage -
1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC.
5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume.
All the phases of accumulation stage-
Phase A:
Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend.
-- Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
-- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC).
-- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC.
-- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation.
-- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Phase B:
-- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend
-- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup.
--There are usually multiple STs during Phase B'
-- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
--Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume.
Phase C:
-- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply.
-- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears).
-- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
-- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis.
Phase D:
--During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top
--LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E:
--large operators can occur at any point in Phase E.
--These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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Wyckoffaccumulation
[BTC/USDT] Bitcoin potential accumulationsince April 13th the market has witnessed a sideways movement meaning an equilibrium between supply and demand until May 20th ended with a breakout of the resistance that qualify this range of being an accumulation, the breakout happened in the same way that wyckoff litterature describes it high volume, wide spreads, firm closes the next step is the final confirmation that i'm waiting for is a retest of the previous resistance then an explosive move to the up side
BTC in a daily distribution or accumulation? What's next.
Since the beginning of March 24 BTC has been forming a Wyckoff distribution pattern on the 1D chart.
Typically I would expect a major sell off at the end of the distribution. However, as we have just gone past the Halving there is great expectation that price will push up towards the $100K mark and possibly beyond.
Therefore, I feel that this current Wyckoff pattern that is paying out before us will ultimately flip into an accumulation and price will break above the FWB:73K region and make new highs.
Of course, that may not be the case and we do in fact see a sell off.
Should this happen and as price is currently making lower lows I feel the region price could move down to will be around the $50-52K mark.
My chart has two paths plotted of what I expect could happen. In order for the bullish case to take hold price will need to climb above the FWB:67K mark and hold to form a base before going higher.
My current bias is that we will ultimately see price fall to $50K and make everyone fearful that the run is over and you will hear everyone calling for $40K. Of course $40K will never come while the smart money add to positions at $50K. Late Q3 I would expect to see a rally back to $60K and then retail will FOMO in thereafter.
Do not get shaken out.
Marklaar84
Filecoin - A Stunningly Bullish ChartCRYPTOCAP:FIL
This chart is one of the easiest layups I've seen, not solely in TA but the fact a where it sits while the BTC ATH has been been breach prior to the Halvening
This is the textbook Ted Warren perfect buying pattern, combined with a Wyckoff accumulation schematic after a perfect 5 wave from the 2020 top.
Since then PA has presented an incredibly bullish momentum breakout, exhibiting mammoth volume at exactly the right place seen through on the OBV which has already flown far past the pervious ATH.
Do what you will with this information, I know I have.
Running FlatHere's an idea to support the possibility that BINANCE:HBARBTC may be ready for or have already begun a reversal that is potentially headed towards a new ATH.
HBAR ended its second run vs. Bitcoin with a slightly higher new high, giving it a flat top. Since correcting, it has formed what could be a strong reversal at a low that is parallel to its previous low and the two previous highs, and it did so right along the 100% fib on the trend-based fib extension shown above.
Should we actually get that reversal here, it would confirm that it has been in a running flat correction, which typically leads to a very strong move up once it reverses.
The running flat also lends confluence towards my previous suggestion that it has been in accumulation since inception, as shown in this older chart below comparing the weekly with Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic # 2:
Strengthening dominance!So guys, I'm doing an extra BTC Dominance idea.
All just the way I like it, the power signs on the small
timeframes led to power signs on the big timeframes!
I have no doubt that BTC D are ending the Wyckoff accumulation,
and this monthly candle in the narrow SOS range is meant to test the lower boundary around 46.8-46.5.
The July candle should be green!
A one-month cross from the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen will form!
Why?
Because an exit from the squeeze on the monthly chart has begun.
We have the first gray cross on the 1M chart since 2020.
While people are looking at the 1D, 4H chart the main event is happening on the 1M chart.
It's like the inertia of an electric train.
It's heavy and crushing.
And above this SOS range we have a nice «thin neck» of a red Kumo cloud.
If you've watched my charts before, you know
that I always pay close attention to those «thin necks».
These are places of likely breakdowns up or down.
So, we have a charging cannon of a monthly cross of indicator lines in July 2023.
We already have a gray cross on SQZMOM ( read LazyBear for more).
What else?
The Cluster Algorithm has crossed the 70 line! It may well go above 90.
I think this process will definitely continue until mid-autumn.
But since this is a serious time frame,
I give the maximum growth of dominance up to halving.
Until BTC halving, i think. I noted April 2024.
The disappointment will be killer.
Since the enchantment was naive.
I know I have an unpopular opinion.
You don't have to read it.
Good luck.
P.S.
Remember!
Dominance can grow on the fall of Bitcoin.
And this will mean that altcoins fall x2 or x3 deeper.
GBPUSD Feb 22 Buy Trade1 trade this week :)
GBPUSD INTRADAY Trade
Long Trade was activated using 1H and 15 min Market Structure :)
I noticed that daily and 4h TF has same bias because of demand 1.24770 AREA.
This was a pending order activated because of validity in 1h- 30min TF
Mitigating previous supply.
- My favorite intraday setup is 15min. aiming also for 15min TP.
Please check the chart for reference.
( Goal is imbalance fill) 1.27176
RR: 1:7
wyckoff accumulation :)
TOTAL CAP prediction in next 6 months +100% CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Descending Triangle Breakout expected
Wyckoff cycle end, accumulation incoming in next mid-term period of 6-10 months, next "BUS" station +100% in market cap.
Too many projects waiting under the carpet during this period, development cannot be stopped !!!!
Financials trying to catch up with technology and not lose control, it has always been like that throughout history, that is the only way to move the boundaries and make progress.
I wish you a prosperous 2023 🙏
PS. Today is Friday the 13th, so let's see who will bring luck in the next period 🥰🙏
CDS's on Silver USD/OZShort silver in the short/mid term, buy long term.
With so many impulses on all timeframes my analysis led me to identify Wyckoff Phases across these time periods and in confluence with each other. For ease I will only be looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes.
The Wyckoffian Logic would suggest an accumulation (eventual price increase) or distribution phase (eventual price decrease).
MONTHLY
On the monthly timeframe (orange rectangle/lines and txt) ,in the mid/long term) I believe we are in the accumulation phase, currently in phase B and nearing the end of this period.
In the next phase (C) I would expect the “spring/purge” where price will drop at a low near to US$17.55 followed by a price bounce upwards. This US$17.55 or around about would be the lowest price and a great buy-in for Silver. However, price will test resistance US$18.89-US$20.70 as it moves upwards from here, and there will be other chances to buy-in just not at its lowest price. Of course from this low I will be LONG SILVER.
In Phase D we will see the price increase eventually showing “signs of strength” (Wyckoff patterns) around the US$26.18 mark where it will find resistance once again. At this resistance there will be price bounce before entering:
Phase E, where price will breakout and we will see a LARGE price increase. The price of Silver will test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
We should see a volume decrease from the monthly “selling climax” to about the “spring/purge” (yet to take place) where volume will increase during the “breakout”.
WEEKLY
What is price going to do now, what about a shorter timeframe; Weekly - (red rectangle/lines and txt).
At this timeframe I believe we are in the distribution phase at the end of phase D showing “signs of weakness” and expect the price the further decline. Short term I am SHORT Silver.
In phase E price should continue to sharply decline eventually testing the price of US$20.70 where it will find resistance and bounce upwards. This should be short lived as price will then continue on a downhill trajectory to US$18.89 and ultimately to about US$17.55
CONFLUENCE
On the weekly timeframe the “spring/purge and the “return to origin” are clearly defined. This price range makes up the wyckoff distribution pattern, and in the monthly timeframe as price makes a 3rd attempt to break above and fails, it makes the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. This price drop in the future (US$17.55) is as expected as the market makers need to collect liquidity before heading to its highs.
Currently in the weekly timeframe we can assume that we could be in the “sign of weakness” stage as we are testing price of US$22.70 which is where price tested previously in the “automatic rally” stage in this weekly pattern. This should indicate we are at the very end of this cycle and about to enter phase E where price will breakdown.
Phase E on the weekly timeframe (distribution) is near completing a Phase B pattern on the Monthly timeframe (accumulation).
On the monthly timeframe Phase C will begin from about US$20.65 which will be Phase E on the weekly.
CONCLUSION
I am SHORT Silver with my Wyckoff Distribution and Accumulation analysis in the short/midterm.
The price of Silver will keep dropping. The price will eventually come down further to about US$17.55. From here I will be LONG Silver and hope to see prices in the long run to test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
Please leave a comment on your thoughts.
See Wyckoff schematics here: school.stockcharts.com
ETH - Recurring Wyckoff "Jumping The Creek"CRYPTOCAP:ETH
This patten has unfolded consistently, multiple times, across ETH and many other ERC-20 pairs.
It's a simple Wyckoff accumulation/reaccumulation schematic, sweeping liquidity then double bottoming, followed by a flag at the DB neckline (w/volume) then breaking higher.
The best part of watching this unfold is from a macro bottom into the expansion phase clearly illustrates the lessening amount of resistance PA has to grind through and the angle of acceleration once it breaks.
This is where people get left behind, this phase illustrates the exponential nature of what this space is.
It's beautiful IMO 🥹
GBP USD buy trade activatedAs you can see in my chart - this is a simple trade using wyckoff schematics.
1H is my main TF of analysis (intra day trade)
after that I go to 45-30-15 min and look for shift in market structure. I found out accumulation in this 15minTF and then I wait for IC creation + validity/ proof.
I set my pending order with an RR of 1:8 Using distribution schematics in higher TF.
Please check the chart for more information :)
Pending order activated and it took half day to reach the target.
Similarities to Wyckoff AccumHere's that image again as I am seeing it, it usually gets messed up when publishing a chart so I've saved it here:
Though this is not coming out of a downward move, the pattern looks incredibly similar to Wyckoff Accum Schema # 1, and just coming out of the Spring, moving towards LPS and then SOS.
We could see a strong move up for ETH here. I have shown some bearish outlooks in the past, this is a bullish one. Bitcoin Dominance is also looking bearish atm, while Other.d is looking bullish. Eth.d is a bit neutral however.
Long BTC to Around $48,000BTC was up roughly 70% from October 5 to December 5 with the current price action observed within a horizontal trading range. I will be opening a long position on the Spring position around $40,000. If the Spring fails then I will exit the position at a small loss. I think we will observe a sign of strength (SOS) rally that will take the price to around $48,000.
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
🚀 TIA: Analyzing the AMD SetupTIA has made a dynamic entry into the cryptocurrency market, showcasing an impressive and rapid upward trajectory. On the 4-hour timeframe, a distinct Accumulation and Manipulation Distribution (AMD) pattern, based on Wyckoff principles, has taken shape. This pattern is often indicative of strategic accumulation before a substantial price surge.
📉 Technical Analysis:
🚀 AMD Pattern:
The Accumulation and Manipulation Distribution (AMD) pattern is characterized by a series of phases:
Accumulation Phase: Smart money accumulates assets quietly.
Markup Phase: A breakout and significant price appreciation occur.
Distribution Phase: Smart money distributes assets to the broader market.
Markdown Phase: A decline in prices as distribution completes.
📈 Trading Dynamics:
💹 Strategic Accumulation:
TIA's price action reflects a phase of strategic accumulation, with informed investors quietly acquiring positions. This often sets the stage for a powerful markup phase.
🚀 Potential for Price Surge:
Following the accumulation phase, the market may experience a sudden and substantial price surge. This is particularly anticipated after the completion of manipulation and distribution.
📉 Breakout Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish Breakout:
With the completion of the AMD pattern, a bullish breakout is anticipated, driving TIA's price upwards. Traders should watch for confirmation signals and favorable market conditions.
🔽 Watch for Distribution Signs:
Caution is advised as the asset progresses through the distribution phase. Signs of distribution may precede a potential markdown phase, and traders should be vigilant for shifts in market dynamics.
📝 Trading Strategy:
🧐 Confirm Breakout Signals:
Traders are encouraged to confirm the bullish breakout by utilizing technical indicators, volume analysis, and other relevant tools.
📈 Risk Management:
Implement sound risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations during the transition from accumulation to markup.
🚀 Unlock my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! 🚀
UNI - Wyckoff Accumulation SOS/LPS + Volume#UNI
I love to see these #Wyckoff Schematics play out, so profitable if you just add patience to your toolkit.
This is exactly what we want to see, after the breach of the heaviest #resistance on chart, then that coil up resting on top of the now #support followed by that retest with heavy #volume sling shotting PA into infinity.
If you missed the Spring and Adam & Eve at the bottom, and somehow all the signs before this, you still have time, you know what to do...
MATIC - Wyckoff SOS + LPS Before Blast Off#MATIC
Textbook Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics, with ideal volume profiles, showing the standard "Sign of Strength" (SOS) Flag while absorbing all the fear sales into one "Last Point of Supply" (LPS) before go time.
Hope this helps...
Dec 19 2023 GBPUSD BUY Trade Activated (pending order) Good day folks!
Another great trade in this currency pair.
Look at daily TF bullish since 1.21020, I often used hedging trade but i think i got this one. Last week was sell then this tuesday, buy trade activated. Always adjust your analysis depending on the actual behavior and do not stay married to your first bias :) .
As i checked 4h-3h-2h-1h, there was an IC (POI created ) when accumulation schematics was introduced last week dec 12 onwards. So i monitor the left side of the chart and also see an IMB in price. I set pending order in my MT5 account so i can still ride the trade even when i am offline.
My trade come to fruition because of HTF bias and then validity in low tf.
I set my trade in lower tf for a better RR . :) .Hopefully my trade will have a momentum until friday, but no more loss in this trade due to the fact that I always take some partials in trades.
I hope you learn on something on this, have a great day.
#accumulation
#wyckoffiantrader
RR: 1:16
Bulls Ready To Take ItSPY has been undergoing accumulation, markup activated 10/21 above 373.93 (will want to see continuation next week for the path to play out in timeline detailed below):
Initial Target 388-393 by end of October 2022 (SoS)
Slight pullback to 377-382 into early November (BU/LPS)
Estimated trajectory following above scenario:
408-419 by December 2022
371-384 going into Jan 2023, likely will re-accumulate here
Attempt breakout of larger downtrend at 395-400 level around Feb. 2023
Goal Target 515-550 (new ATH) by Summer 2023 to end the 13 year bull cycle ; will begin major distribution there
Bigger picture is SPY shows indication that it has completed wave IV via a tripple combo and has been accumulating to start of wave V.
SPY Update - Bullish (final dip)I posted a bullish trajectory for SPY back on 10/21/2022 (linked: "Bulls Ready to Take It") - that hit the exact trajectory up to this point. The idea left off indicating that was the setup pre-breakout; this is a follow up from that with the expected path from here.
There has been major accumulation since June 2022, with 3 minor accumulation zones (hollow green boxes) at the left shoulder, head/spring, and right shoulder. From these I can calculate equilibrium levels (dashed horizontal lines) and critical markup/activation levels (yellow dotted lines). The black and purple trend lines are supply/demand, and the dashed blue are gann angles. The horizontal green are target levels.
The final backup/retest level is SPY 387.58 - given that holds today I am expecting the path toward breakout to begin in the coming weeks:
- Breakout Level is 401.42, a break of that will see explosive upside to initial target of 432-437 by end of March 2023 (this will be the SoS)
- Following that will be the backup/retest to 401.42 by July 2023 (will likely see re-accumulation here)
- Given that holds as support the next target will be the markup to new All Time High by early-to-mid 2024. On the way to ATH expect 464, then re-accumulation to make the new high (after July the trajectory becomes illustrative to show the idea, up until July its literal).
- The end goal is SPY 530-550 but I'll send update when we are closer to that, first need to hold here and see strength to 430s in coming months.
~JM
Futes projected pathBreakout level is 11525, expected path is solid green trajectory:
- Initial target = 13189 by 4/3/2023
- Then pullback to test support at 11525
- If holds, then target = 14565 by 1/15/2024
~Alt path to initial target is most bullish scenario (dashed green trajectory, would need to break all resistance this week):
13189 by 1/30/2023