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Wyckoff

Look for Wyckoff in the right places.Since my partner @Mayfair_Ventures started talking bearish about BTC in March 2021, and also talking about Wyckoff theory, a lot of commentators picked up on it and made Wyckoff more widely known. Most likely they read up on it quickly and got some kind of understanding, but unless you have been using it for a while in anger, as in, making real trading decisions based on it, it's not that easy to use. There is ALWAYS a bigger picture to look at. Also, you rarely get a perfect Wyckoff. One person's spring is another's confirmation that this is a distribution. Like all trading, there is a combination of signs. Take this accumulation from Summer 2021. It only proved it was accumulation when it exited the ranger to the upside. You had to wait for the retest to get a sensible trade. Even then, the overall risk reward was at best mediocre, and no one in the crypto space had the patience to wait almost 7 weeks for it, instead getting rinsed at $50k and likely stopped out. And also remember the narrative was around the Elliott Wave that we'd outlined, because you can't just rely on Wyckoff, or any one thing , if you want a sensible trading strategy. Right now, for a number of sensible logical reasons outlined in the attached posts and videos, I am looking for Wyckoff Distribution. My bias is downward. If you want to know why, look at the other posts, I'm not re-hashing it all again here. The important thing is the pattern I expect to see, involving a significant break of the consolidation structure to the downside and then a retest of the zone. Hmmm.... I spoke in earlier posts about there being a chance of a final upthrust above the ATH, just to sucker the last few in. I think he chances of this are reduced to about 5-10% now, given recent price action. The middle of the consolidation ($66K) seems like the top for now. If it retests and fails, then it may be time to pull the trigger. Please bear in mind that BTC is now a mature instrument, and the days of exponential prices are gone. Good luck, because it's better to be lucky than good, most of the time!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Paul_Varcoe
GEHC 1H Long Swing Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp- + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + 1/2 correction + support level + volumed 2Sp- - independent approach" Monthly trend "+ long impulse + SOS test level + 1/2 correction + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test" GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS Sell Stop 79.68 LMT 81.40, GTC Sell Limit 84.76, GTC
NASDAQ:GEHCLong
by MishaSuvorov
Lululemon: Downward Dog Days Ahead? - A Wyckoff Distr AnalysisINTRO I have been sitting on this idea for a while and finally decided to put the pen to the pad. For the past three years, there have been signs that Lululemon's stock may be destined for a decline. This trade idea will explore the potential for a downtrend using Wyckoff analysis, a technical analysis pattern used to identify trends within a market cycle. The Wyckoff Distribution theory suggests that large institutions subtly distribute their holdings and initiate short positions before a significant price decline. This distribution unfolds in five distinct phases, each with its own characteristics. In this article, I'll describe these phases and analyze how they might be seen in Lululemon's case. For reference, this is the schematic I will be comparing my LULU case to. The Setup The company's story began in 2008 with its founding. Like most companies, it was affected by the 2008 financial crisis and faced challenges in its performance. However, it recovered strongly over the next 3 years, with its stock price increasing by almost 3,700% from its low in 2009 to its high in 2012. From 2012 to 2018, the stock underperformed as its valuation took some time to catch up. During this period, LULU steadily improved its financial performance, attracting the attention of smart investors who began accumulating shares. Phase A The distribution phase marks the end of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, buyers have been dominant, but now we see evidence of institutional selling with the preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). The BC indicates the end of the uptrend as institutions freely unload shares. The low created after the BC is called the automatic reaction (AR). This low is important because it represents the lowest price at which institutions are willing to sell their shares. The AR and BC form our distribution channel, and there will be secondary tests (ST) of these ranges. Phase B Phase B functions to create momentum in preparation for a new downtrend. During this phase, institutions and large professional interests sell off their holdings and start taking short positions. This is typically marked by low-volume rallies and high-volume declines. Additionally, we may witness signs of weakness (SOW) and upthrusts (UT), which are further tests of supply and demand as institutions assess interest. Note the volume as the stock price advances and declines. Phase C Phase C is an optional phase that primarily serves as a test of the remaining demand. You can identify it by the UpThrust After Distribution (UTAD), which is a price move above the trading channel resistance that quickly reverses and closes back within the channel. It is a bull trap – it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality, it is intended to trick uninformed break-out traders. It is used to snag additional shares short at elevated prices before a decline. Note the volume spike to create the UTAD and the volume spike to take it away. Phase D In Phase D, there is growing evidence that the uptrend is coming to an end. Sellers take control, leading to a clear break of support or a decline below the midpoint of the trading channel after a UT or UTAD. During this phase, there are typically several weak rallies, each marked by the last point of supply (LPSY). Phase E The final phase of the cycle is Phase E. It depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the channel to the downside and supply is in control. This represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the newly formed downtrend are quickly washed with selling. We haven't entered Phase E yet, but the chart is currently aligning well with our expectations. Given that the pattern has taken 3 years to form, it will likely result in a longer-term short. I believe that targeting the 150s is reasonable if the analysis is accurate. I would appreciate hearing your thoughts on this.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by Decam9
9
NLMK Daytrade 5M Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade + long impulse + SOS level - strong approach + volumed 2Sp- + weak test? + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable virtual stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Hourly CounterTrend "- short impulse - unvolumed TE / T1 level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp-" Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level"
RUS:NLMKLong
by MishaSuvorov
STLA Long Swing 1H Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed TE / T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE/T1 level + support level - 1 bar reversal? Monthly trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + 1/2 correction + support level" STLA @NYSE Sell Limit 17.00, GTC Sell Stop 16.61 LMT 16.75, GTC I don't want to run it more than 1 to 2 R/R since 1 bar reversal on daily.
NYSE:STLALong
by MishaSuvorov
Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact. Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me. I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading. I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory. When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct. Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below; And step two; In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment. We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game. Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you. This is where sentiment really comes in. As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd. Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool. So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias. I wrote an article in 2021 here - About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions. If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series. Stay safe and wish you all the best. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
GEHC 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed T1 level + biggest volume 2Sp+ + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit: - 60% 1 to 2 R/R - 40% daily T1 Daily context "- short impulse - unvolumed T1 level + biggest volume 2Sp+ + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry" Monthly context "+ long impulse + T2 level + 1/2 correction + support level + volumed manipulation" GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS Sell Limit 83.59, GTC Sell Stop 79.59 LMT 80.69, GTC GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS Sell Limit 82.85, GTC GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS Sell Stop 79.59 LMT 80.69, GTC
NASDAQ:GEHCLong
by MishaSuvorov
MCD 1H Swing / Investment Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + expanding T2 + volumed 2Sp- + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit: 1/3 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 daily T1 level 1/3 monthly 1/2 Daily trend "+ long impulse + expanding T2 + volumed 2Sp- + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry" Monthly trens "+ long impulse + volumed T2 level + support level + 1/2 correction + biggest volume Sp + weak test" MCD @NYSE Sell Limit 261.99, GTC Sell Stop 250.94 LMT 253.18, GTC Sell Limit 257.63, GTC OCO 2A: Sell Shares of MCD Limit at $271.49 (Good 'til Canceled) OCO 2B: Sell Shares of MCD Stop at $250.94 Limit at $251.94 (Good 'til Canceled)
NYSE:MCDLong
by MishaSuvorov