No Brainer Mid-Long TermEmphasizing the mid-long term reward outweighs the near-term risk here using statistics in confluence with wyckoff and corrective structure:
Here is what I see, accumulation began early 2022 and attempted a spring in April, but NVAX just didn't have the near-term catalysts it needed to follow through with a sign of strength (especially in the general corrective market environment of 2022).. so it began a new accumulation phase at lower levels. :
- I use control charts that I designed in R, which help me gauge the stability of the current price levels w.r.t. moving averages over near- to mid-term periods (long term NVAX is cyclical and that is a whole different monster, requires more sophisticated time series and beyond the scope of this post). The 4 different CCs in the pasted image in this chart are 4 different relationships that have provided me, in general, with good results when all 4 are consistent in their interpretation. What is important here is that for NVAX to continue trading at current levels would be an anomaly, statistically.. however, if it maintains these levels for extended periods then they would become the new norm (the latter is least probable here)
- downside risk near-term before NVAX become an extreme anomaly (which has 98% bounce rate, current level around 86%-93% bounce rate) is the 20-26 range
- near term tendency of price is to bounce to 52-63
- generally there is an equal and opposite reaction when a name gets this unstable down it will over compensate on the move up. Overcompensation range that I am actually expecting (catalyst will be approval, or whatever they conjur up to pump it, idc): 67-73
** Using confluence with ARIMA time series, wyckoff expectation of seeing an SoS here off this new spring that is forming, and dynamics of control charts (I use these to confirm accumulation or distribution as well), it would make most sense to see an over-reaction bounce soon centered around some hyped news to around 67-73, followed by a pullback into the stable range around 52, and then continuation from there. The yellow paths are just illustrative, solid line near term trajectory, dashed line the general mid-term expectation for price action.. again, illustrative for now.
