BTC - wyckoff analysis (update)Hi guys,
I would like to update my previous wyckoff analysis after new movements of BTC this week (what a week!).
In general, it doesn't change much, just the 'ST as SOW' point which is now a little bit lower.
Let keep an eyes on BTC at these critical prices. Level to level trades is always a good choice.
All the best!
Wyckoff
#SPX500 BounceWith all the doom and gloom recently haven't noticed many paying attention to the bigger picture.
FOMC decision to bring 75bps rate hike was fully priced in, in fact the market had partially priced in full point hike.
Despite that bear arrogance remained peak levels and have continued shorting the markets (crypto, stocks) on mega volume.
Going back to Wyckoff, one of the 3 golden rules he considers is EFFORT and RESULT.
While market has been short on super volume, the price did't quite reacted same.
When EFFORT != RESULT we look for pause and reversal.
Sell volume has been slowly being absorbed and we have, for a very first time seen a 50/99 DMA Golden Cross
While this is early indication and needs to be confirmed with 50/200 Golden Cross, short side is extremely heavy and vulnerable.
Remember, liquidity is magnet, and free money in form of stop-loss are up north.
Furthermore, we almost fully retraced the COVID pump and we are at a levels from where market lost its organic trajectory due to the aforementioned natural disaster.
ALGO completing Wyckoff accumulation phaseAfter a multi-month period of mark-down ALGO is exhibiting the final stages of Wyckoff's accumulation model:
1. Preliminary Support (PS) established
2. Selling Climax (SC) achieved
3. Automatic Rally (AR) occurred
4. Secondary Tests (ST) occurred
5. Price broke key resistance level (Sign Of Strength / "crossed the creek"
6. Price Backed Up ("walk back to creek")
The next phase is the mark-up phase.
This could correspond well with a mid-term rally off SPY support level.
GBPJPY ...bearish 4H viewAfter completeion of the distribuation phase of Wyckoff with breaking out the support level which converted to resistance...retest was done and formation of new downtrend below the Fibo 0.61 level, below MA200 and bouncing off the trend line ...down move is expected from that level...be safe..
BTC/USDT 4hBTC/USDT 4h
▪️Judging by the situation, bitcoin decided to go up anyway, take liquidity from above, and also test the zone 22054.07-22713.92. If it doesn’t go so high, then at least you need to show the overlap of the imbalance by half, it will just be a premium zone of about $21415 +- and after that, I think we should again expect a downward movement, the formation of accumulation and an exit up after removing liquidity at 17600. I don’t think that let's go up a lot, there are unfinished business downstairs, and there are also a lot of people waiting for him downstairs now, so it would be logical to go upstairs.
LUNC wyckoff accummulationBINANCE:LUNCBUSD probably doing a wyckoff accummulation phase as BINANCE:ETHBUSD did long ago. My theory is that market do a reversal after a triple top is formed. Hence, only one top has been made so far. This is subjective to market conditions.
Bitcoin and Wyckoff Accumulation D1BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Lets check classic Wyckoff Accumulation phase since drop In June. This is D1 Timeframe and if Historically October is green month with 15-60% moves up. We have an all chances break resistance and hit even 28-30K.
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Readjusted Possible Wyckoff Accumulation range on LUNCTracking this possible range of accumulation a bit early but it looks like we've hit a secondary test (ST) in phase B and possibly going into phase C with the last point of supply ( LPS ) being accumulated by holders and market makers. It goes with the narrative that everyone just jumping onboard with staking and becoming a validator node for the network.
Possible Wyckoff Accumulation range on LUNCTracking this possible range of accumulation a bit early but it looks like we've hit a secondary test (ST) in phase B and possibly going into phase C with the last point of supply (LPS) being accumulated by holders and market makers. It goes with the narrative that everyone just jumping onboard with staking and becoming a validator node for the network.
Here what i think about TSLANASDAQ:TSLA is paying within 260 - 315 range area.. which is not so wide range for TSLA. i really don't a serious selling in TSLA. CME_MINI:ES1! is near the low of this year (2022) , which 3650s area (June low). if ES run out supply, and i think it should, TSLA will bail out all of seller at 315 area, poor structure. let's watch this moves..
BTC still in accumulation phase?BTC has been showing some signs of a potential reversal. Once again by using Wyckoff guidelines, I think that an accumulation phase is on going.
A reversal will be confirmed when the "upward sloping accumulation structure" (in 2D TF) will have been completed. It means that the $30000 is a key level.
Before approaching this level, BTC may be still fluctuating, in accordance with the macro factors' uncertainties (stock markets, FED decisions, war...). In my opinion, BTC would revisit the $20000 level. This would be a good opportunity to accumulate BTCs (with precaution of real breakdown that "Accumulation" is invalidated and becomes "Redisctribution")
PS: Even if the prices don't follow exactly the theoretical Wyckoff structure, the resistances/supports and events would still be useful for trades.
YZJ - Breakout from SupportSign of Strength in the chart:
1. Bullish signal with volume
2. NS signal with Pullback
Disclaimer
This information only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock