Crude Oil - New Lows - DailyCrude Oil just printing another LOWER-LOW.
78 support line became now a resitance zone , so we can see 73-74 zone , very soon.
Also OPEC anounced that they estimate an increase in barels per day in 2024-2025 , that is a bearish info beacause they already cut the production every month and the price is still in down trend, so with an slower economy also the demand its lower for OIL...so medium term im bearish on it.
WTI
BluetonaFX - USOIL Approaching 3 Month LowHi Traders!
USOIL is slowly pulling back to its three-month low at 77.68.
Price Action 📊
The market's price action is currently bearish due to a few signs. The market recently had a trendline support momentum break after a very strong uptrend period, which has led to lower highs and lower lows. Finally, the market broke under the 20 EMA and has failed to go back above it for over a week. These signs are pointing to a possible market reversal of the bullish period the market had in August. We are now looking for a continuation down to target the three-month low at 77.68, which is where the bullish period started.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
Oil prices have started to dip even after raising tensions in the Middle East, as investors closely monitored the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and in anticipation of the US Non-Farm payrolls due out at the end of the trading week this coming Friday.
Support 📉
80.35: WEEKLY LOW
77.68: THREE MONTH LOW
Resistance 📈
84.67: 20 EMA
85.19: WEEKLY HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
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Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
WTI CRUDE OIL: Very dangerous 1W MACD Bearish Cross formed.WTI Crude Oil materialized our 78.50 short term target (chart at the bottom) and crossed under the 1D MA200. This is a breach of potentially serious consequences as it also breached the 1W MA50, so we need to monitor the closing on a weekly scale. If it closes under it, the bearish trend is very likely to be extended. The formarion of a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W timeframe can be very dangerous as the last one that happaned while the price breached the 1W MA50 was on June 13th 2022, the market High after the Russia invasion peak.
If the market does close the week under the 1W MA50, we expect a rebound on the Channel Down bottom near 76.00 and if the candles close under the 1W MA50, fresh short targeting the 1W MA200 (TP = 71.00).
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally AnnihilatedIn early September, we made what turned out to be a pretty accurate call on crude, predicting that $95~ was the target.
CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market Makers
In July, after analysis, I predicted that the target for crude in the intermediate term is actually a 3-or-4 handle, based on reading the tea leaves of yearly bars.
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, one will say, that mean there's NO WAY oil should go down, so much! It should go up, because reasons!
And I think that is true. I think we're going to see $150 or $200 crude in a future that isn't very far away.
But before that happens, since oil has failed to continue upward momentum, the entire previous range from the Russia-Ukraine War has been traded, and the year has mostly been flat-red, it seems to me pretty obvious that the MMs are going to be MMs and go dumpster some long-term longs.
Which means we have a target of $56 before the end of 2024, based on monthly candles:
It's only that I think $56 won't be "the bottom," they'll drive it lowerer for longerer and make energy bulls and equities bears hate their life, before the real fun starts, because that's how big accumulation happens.
Super high prices is almost always preceded by super deep selling. Producers get net short.
Before they get net short, it takes some time to get net long, and even though you may not see that in Commitment of Traders, the big oil companies have entire floors of their headquarter buildings devoted to trading, a lot like a bank.
The Black Swan of Black Swans, though, that can spoil everyone's fun plans, is the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's tenuous grip on power and reality.
I've said in virtually every post that the CCP is going to fall in our lifetimes. It can fall in one of two ways:
1. Xi Jinping goes Gorbachev and throws the evil Party away, saving China and himself
2. Xi Jinping is strung up as the head of the evil Party, goes down to Hell with the CCP, and something else replaces it
What's at stake for Xi is not only the CCP's boundless crimes against humanity and the ruination of China's 5,000 year Heavenly Dynasties, but the eternal sin of the 24-year organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students.
Although that persecution was started in 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, because Xi is the leader of the CCP, he'll inherit the crime and face the same Sepulcher, unless he can throw the regime away like the man he ought to be.
When the CCP finally falls, whether it's because Wuhan Pneumonia dropped more than former Premier Li Keqiang, or because Xi dumpsters the Jiang Faction and the International Q Cult that's made itself a particle of the Red Dragon, everything is going to be bigly gap down on a Monday morning.
Stuff like the price of oil may seriously moon, however, because the world society's electricity, heat, and transportation relies entirely on fossil fuels.
And so all dumps on commodities may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, all equities rallies may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, and so the risk is enormous.
Trading in these markets in the next 6 months is going to be like playing with fire or gambling your fingers near a really sharp knife.
Never forget this point: a knife just cuts.
A knife doesn't care who or what it cuts. It just cuts.
If you don't want to lose your fingers and your hands, don't put your fingers and your hands under a knife.
Once they're gone, there are no miracles to bring them back.
The way it's looked at up high is that, in reality, you made the choice to put your hands under the knife, and so when it cuts what should be cut, it cut what should be cut, and that's your own problem caused by your own pursuits.
Be careful.
Oil is likely headed to $70 per barrel in 2024For the past four trading sessions, West Texas Intermediate crude oil oscillated between $83 and $85 per barrel. At the moment, it trades near the lower end of this range, and technical indicators on the daily chart continue to grow bearish; the same applies to technicals on the weekly graph. As a result, the likelihood of oil slumping below $80 in the short/medium term increases. This view is also supported by the weakening global economy and the latest data (preliminary) from Saudi Arabia (the world’s second-largest oil producer), which revealed the country’s economy shrank by 4.5% YoY in the third quarter of 2023 (the oil activities declined by 17.3%, while non-oil and government activities rose 3.6% and 1.9% respectively). Unless there is any significant disruption to the supply in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas War, we believe the crude oil is headed lower. With that said, we want to set our price target to $80 per barrel in the short/medium term and next year’s price target to $70 per barrel.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, confirming the trend reversal.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI POSSIBLE RALLYOil prices rebounded after experiencing losses last week, primarily due to expectations of a tight supply situation for the rest of the year. This rebound was driven by key factors, including the commitment of major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to maintaining production cuts until the end of the year. The decrease in the U.S. oil rig count also played a role, as it indicated a lack of response from U.S. producers to the current price environment, giving confidence to Saudi Arabia to continue withholding supply from the market. Additionally, concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East related to the Israel-Hamas conflict subsided, contributing to the market's rebound.
The oil market is now closely focused on economic data from China, particularly trade and inflation figures, to gauge commodity demand in the country. While China's oil imports and fuel demand have remained robust, rising stockpiles could lead to a drop in oil imports in the coming months, especially if economic conditions deteriorate. Meanwhile, the overall health of the U.S. economy, another major consumer of oil, remains a factor influencing oil demand, with expectations of weakening demand during the winter season. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar is currently providing some support to oil prices, but it may also reflect concerns about a cooling U.S. economy, which could impact oil consumption.
If the trend continues the price might reach levels of 90.51, in the opposite scenario the price might drop to 80.49.
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USOUSD H4 | Heading into resistanceWTI oil (USOUSD) could rise towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 84.135
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level
Stop Loss: 86.849
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 81.169
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Crude Oil - KeyLevelsOil, after breaking the support of the trend line, attempted a comeback and retested the former support line that turned into resistance, from where the sellers managed to defend the price and thus it seems that we only had a discount for a new sell.
Now the price is in an interesting neckline and I, personally, am only looking for a short.
USOIL to find sellers close to market levels?WTI - Intraday
The AB=CD formation target is located at 70.19.
Reverse trend line resistance comes in at 83.91.
Bespoke resistance is located at 84.06.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The medium term bias remains bearish.
We look to Sell at 84.00 (stop at 85.50)
Our profit targets will be 80.20 and 79.60
Resistance: 83.91 / 84.06 / 89.83
Support: 80.19 / 77.64 / 70.19
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Expecting a rebound on the MA200 (1d).WTI Crude Oil has been declining rather sharply since September 28th and today's green (1d) candle should give way to a new low tomorrow.
Based on the (1d) RSI sequence, this fall resembles the fractals of November 2022 and April-May 2023.
Both rebounded to the 0.5 Fibonacci level after pricing their respective bottoms.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at 78.15 (MA200 1d and a little over Support 1).
Targets:
1. 78.15 (MA200 1d and a little over Support 1).
2. 86.30 (Fibonacci 0.5 level).
Tips:
1. Both sequences traded sideways after bottoming for around 2 months. This will be an excellent scalping opportunity. Take advantage of it.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
🛢️ Crude Oil Hits $93 - 💰 Why 88$ is ok for Saudi Arabia 🌴Hey Traders, Professor here! 🤟 You might recall my bullish call on oil at $70, based on fundamentals and geopolitical moves. Fast forward, and here we are at $93 a barrel. But is this the ceiling, or is there more room to grow? Let's dissect. 🛢️🔍
The Resistance at $93: More Than Just a Number 🛑
Oil has rocketed to $93, and I'm seeing this as a strong resistance point. It's not just a psychological barrier; it's also a key level when you look at Fibonacci retracements and historical price action. Could this be the turning point for a retracement? 🤔 My Oil Long at $70 Post :
Inflation's Role: The Double-Edged Sword 📈
While rising oil prices have been great for traders and certain economies, they also fuel inflation. And let's be clear: Inflation is a beast that the U.S. and Europe can't afford to ignore. High oil prices are now a geopolitical concern, and there will be pressure to tame them, especially as they contribute to rising inflation. 🌍 Inflation and Oil post Post
Saudi Arabia's Profit Game: Low Costs, High Margins 😁
Here's where it gets interesting. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait enjoy production costs as low as $5.40 per barrel. Even at the higher end, it's just around $10. So, whether oil is at $88 or $93, they're raking in massive profits. This low-cost advantage gives them a competitive edge, especially when other countries are grappling with significantly higher production costs. 🇸🇦💰
The High Dollar's Role 🇺🇸
The dollar has been on a tear lately, and it's worth noting its impact on oil prices. A strong dollar usually puts downward pressure on commodities priced in USD, like oil. This could be another factor contributing to potential resistance at $93. The US Dollar & The Wolverine:
What's Next? The Road Ahead 🤷♂️
Keep a close eye on potential retracement levels. Fibonacci and moving averages could be your guide here. 88$ to 93$ range is what i would most likely expect📉
Geopolitical events are always wild cards. Any tensions or agreements could send oil prices soaring or plummeting. 🌍
Don't lose sight of Bitcoin. It remains my go-to asset for hedging against inflation and market volatility. 🚀
Trade wisely, folks. My charts are always here if you need a second opinion. 📊
(ps if the price breaks over 95$ we might need to run for the great reset hills!)
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (12H UPDATE)Oil is still accumulating buying momentum within this Wave 2 (Wave II) accumulation phase. We can expect price to carry on consolidating within a range for the next 2 weeks or so, which'll scare off the average, small retail trader. But if you hop onto the daily TF, you'll see overall the market is still bullish📈
USOil WTI Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this video, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of USOil WTI, with a specific emphasis on the prevailing bearish sentiment evident on the weekly (1W) chart. Throughout this presentation, we delve into fundamental principles of technical analysis, encompassing critical elements such as the current market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other indispensable components of technical analysis. As we proceed within the video, we meticulously scrutinize a prospective trading opportunity.
It is imperative to emphasize that the insights shared in this content are exclusively for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial guidance. Engaging in the foreign exchange market trading entails a substantial degree of risk. Hence, it is essential to prudently integrate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan.
WTI H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 83.014 which is a pullback support level.
Stop loss is at 81.200 which is a level that sits under a swing-low support level.
Take profit is at 86.456 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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WTI H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOUSD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 83.142
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Stop Loss: 81.725
Why we like it:
There is a swing-low level
Take Profit: 86.849
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that algins with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
OIL - Bearish move comingCrude oil prices went up on Friday due to Israel's expansion of ground operations in Gaza. This has raised concerns about the possibility of the conflict spreading in a region responsible for a third of the world's oil production.
Turning our attention to China, we're eagerly awaiting the release of manufacturing and services PMI data for October. Investors are looking for signs that the world's top importer of crude oil, China, is stabilising economically. Market participants are especially interested in assessing whether Beijing's supportive measures have boosted oil demand.
The US Dollar (USD) is facing resistance as market expectations lean towards the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates at 5.5% in the upcoming Wednesday meeting. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing positive movement after a lukewarm performance during the Asian session, currently hovering around 106.70.
The 10-year US Bond is making a comeback, reaching 4.85% at the moment, which is providing support for the US Dollar. In addition, investors will keep a close eye on key indicators such as the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October.
Investors are approaching the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting and China's manufacturing data with caution, which is leading to a drop in crude oil prices. This cautious stance is overshadowing the support that was previously provided by tensions in the Middle East.
Overall, we are bearish but we are anticipating an up move to $88 price before seeing a drop down to $82, from there another potential drop to the $79 prize zone could happen*!? But right now we will be focusing on that up move to $88 and looking to short it from that level, please see chart above for details!
*Potential further drop to $79 price zone (as mentioned above)
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders within A Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually formed the Channel Up we projected on our most recent (see chart below) analysis 2 weeks ago:
As the price is below both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we spot the completion of the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern inside that Channel. We will not short however before the price closes a 4H candle below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Technically the H&S targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (75.00) but for the time being, we will settle for a 79.00 target, which will be marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
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TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: intraday idea💬 Description: Today, the instrument is at the level of 87.45 and is most likely to prepare for a fall in the more medium term. But here it is necessary to take into account the geopolitical background, which greatly influences oil. Today, an idea is proposed, the time frames of which are within the day. Namely, long for the purpose of local updating of the maximum. The approximate target is the level of 90 . After which, as was said, the price will most likely rush down again, if there are no sharp geopolitical surges on the world stage.
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