Time for a small pullback before higher price tags?West Texas Intermediate crude oil has increased nearly 20% since the start of 2024 and is currently trading near $86.50 per barrel. The precarious situation in the Red Sea, production cuts by OPEC (and its allies), and the inability of the United States to bring more production online fast enough have greatly contributed to the rising oil prices in the past four months. Going forward, it is unlikely that the geopolitical issues in the Middle East will improve anytime soon, especially following a severe escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran earlier this week when Israel killed two Iranian generals by airstrike in Damascus, Syria (not to mention constant failures in peace negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and Israel’s plans to continue military operations in Gaza). These actions will likely provoke retaliation from Iran in the form of more attacks on Israel through its proxies. As these relationships seem to have entered a spiral of reciprocating aggression, the odds of a huge war spillover continue to grow, which has enormous implications for this oil-rich producing region and the oil market itself.
On the subject of technicals, the daily and weekly time frames are bullish. However, the USOIL broke above the ascending channel on Tuesday, and the RSI reached overbought territory on the daily timeframe. Besides that, the price also deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which increases the chances of a short-term pullback in the price of oil. Nonetheless, the probability of oil reaching $90 per barrel in the coming weeks continues to rise.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the upward-sloping channel on USOIL’s daily chart. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout above the channel.
Illustration 1.02
The chart above illustrates simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Alternative support levels lay at $85.85, $83.56, and $79.72.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI
WTI H4 | Bullish momentum to extend after a pullback?WTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 85.758 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 82.400 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 90.325 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Starting a new Bull Cycle. $200 possible.WTI Crude Oil appears to have completed a multi decade Bear Cycle that started during the 2008 subprime crisis. Such long term trends and patterns can only be viewed on monthly timeframes and for this analysis we have chosen the 3M. Technically Oil is only neutral on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 54.985, MACD = 2.990, ADX = 14.499), which indicates its strong long term bullish potential.
As you can see both on RSI terms and pure candle action, Oil seems to be making a bullish reversal after the decline in early 2022, as it held the 3M MA50 on consecutive tests. This price action is very much like the January 2002 rebound, which evolved into a six year Channel Up towards the All Time High of the 2008 Crisis. See how before the 3M MA50 rebound, both patterns rebounded on their 3M MA200. We have to filter out the March-April 2020 monumental collapse to even negative price levels amidts the OPEC-Russia production war.
Both eras lasted for approximately the same time: 5571 days now as opposed to 5844 days in the past. This remarkable symmetry can lead us to a Channel Up rally well above $200 in the next 6 years. Even though fundamentally less realistic based on the current news structure, this is definitely technically plausible, in fact for us is a very probable reality, especially if inflation eventually starts picking up pace again.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area of 88.00.Dear Colleagues, we expected the price to decline, but it seems that the upward movement is not over yet.
I expect the completion of wave "5", then a corrective movement in wave "B" of higher order in the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (83.62), after which I will consider only long positions to the resistance area of 88.00.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaUSOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Idea
In the video, we analyse a potential trading opportunity for USOil. We delve into the prevailing trend, examine price movements, evaluate market structure, and pinpoint a potential entry point based on favourable conditions (if they arise), as outlined in the video. It is crucial to incorporate sound risk management principles into your trading strategy. As always, please be aware that this information is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
Oil Price Forecast: A Potential Bullish ScenarioThe latest COT report, combined with the activity in the options market and technical and graphical analysis, suggests a potential bullish scenario for oil prices.
The COT report indicates a bullish market sentiment for oil, with an increase in bullish commitments compared to the previous report.
Recent activity in the options market suggests that traders are expecting oil prices to rise within the range of 82 to 86 in April this year.
Technical and graphical analysis identifies push the range boundary, which could signal a bullish trend if the price manages to break through these levels.
!!!This forecast should be treated as a starting point for further analysis and decision-making.
!!!! It is important to note that market sentiment can change rapidly, and the forecast should not be considered as a guarantee of future price movements.
WTI aka USOILhello everyone, my last analysis came true (for short position).. price is becoming bullish in the weekly timeframe as of now, however there will be more manipulation next week with the major news (NFT and FOMC meeting)... price is trading above the support level, candle closing above the support level would indicate a possible swing trade. However monthly candle is still bearish (use caution as this could be just minor correction to tp1) .. DXY is bearish so far the expected target is 99 (support level) (short position)... dxy is trading below support level 101.7...
For all Canadian here: Buy HOU EFT stock when WTI/USOIL is bullish
good luck to everyone..
WTI OIL Big rally ahead unless it breaks below the 1W MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our long-term 82.50 Target last week, a call made early this year (January 12, see chart below) when the price was still at $74.33:
At the moment, the price sits above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of October 23 2023, as the week opened above it. This calls for an upward extension similar to the September 04 2023 1W MA100 bullish break-out.
As long as the 1W candles close above the 1W MA100, we will stay bullish, targeting the 18-month Resistance Zone (red) at 92.50. If Oil closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 though, we will take the loss and open a short instead, targeting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and Higher Lows trend-line at 79.00.
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WTI UPDATE - 03 - 04 - 2024
"Investors are eyeing an opportunity with a target price (TP) set at 86,000, coupled with a stop-loss point at 84,000, indicating a strategic approach to managing risk and maximizing returns in the market. This vision suggests a calculated investment strategy, where traders are aiming to capitalize on potential gains while mitigating losses. The decision to buy is influenced by not only technical price levels but also the fundamental strength of the asset, possibly reflected in its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. This approach reflects a blend of technical analysis and fundamental research, highlighting a comprehensive approach to trading or investing."
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 82.362 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 80.000 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 85.876 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI UPDATE - 02 - 04 - 2024"Investors are eyeing an opportunity with a target price (TP) set at 86,000, coupled with a stop-loss point at 84,400, indicating a strategic approach to managing risk and maximizing returns in the market. This vision suggests a calculated investment strategy, where traders are aiming to capitalize on potential gains while mitigating losses. The decision to buy is influenced by not only technical price levels but also the fundamental strength of the asset, possibly reflected in its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. This approach reflects a blend of technical analysis and fundamental research, highlighting a comprehensive approach to trading or investing."
WTI CRUDE OIL Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.WTI Crude Oil reached the top of the December 2023 Channel Up as well as the dashed Channel Up that started after it crossed over the MA50 (1d).
This is a double sell opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Sell again if the price closes a (1d) candle under the dashed Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 82.00 (bottom of dashed Channel Up).
2. 79.00 (bottom of long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed into the overbought zone (above 70.00). That is an additional reason for a technical correction.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Oil hits YTD peak. What are the risks now? Oil prices reached their highest level in seven months, partly driven by worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could constrain supply.
Iran has warned of a potential "serious response" against Israel following a targeted strike in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. This incident has raised concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East, following over five months of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive by targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Although the attacks have so far reportedly only caused minimal damage. Ukraine's objective is to disrupt Russia's main financial support for its invasion of Ukraine.
Better-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from China and the US have also buoyed optimism in the oil market. Because of this, investors might anticipate increased demand in the manufacturing and industrial sectors of both countries.
WTI has now found support just above $84.00. The 100 SMA is above the 200, potentially indicating that support is likely to hold. However, caution might be warranted as the market nears overbought conditions. If the $84.00 level fails to provide support, the subsequent target could be slightly below $81.00, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the low in March to the recent peak. Alternatively, a less significant pullback might see buyers stepping in at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
WTI - more upside is likely before a bigger correctionOn the weekly continuation chart a WXY correction ended last week and we got a bullish engulfing candle. There are three wave moves to the downside and upside which means it is now struggling to create a clear five wave moves, but it is still pushed upwards. This can form an ending diagonal pattern, but is not finished yet, at least one abc to the upside is needed.
WTICO Outperforms BCO on US Oil Production RiseWTICO (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) has recently been outperforming BCO (Brent Crude Oil). This trend coincides with an increase in US-produced oil replacing sanctioned Indian refined oil.
Potential Opportunity in WTICO
The shift in market dynamics could present an opportunity for traders considering long positions in WTICO. However, as always, it's important to conduct your own research and consider factors like:
• Market Volatility: Oil prices can fluctuate significantly due to various factors.
• Global Oil Production: Changes in global oil production can impact WTICO's price.
• Your Investment Strategy: This trade should align with your overall risk tolerance and investment goals.
Stay Informed, Make Informed Decisions
We recommend staying updated on market developments before making any investment decisions.
We're Here to Help
Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further within the comments.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Key Levels 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels to watch on WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 85.20 - 85.85 area
Resistance 2: 89.10 - 89.90 area
Resistance 3: 93.75 - 95.00 area
Support 1: 82.50 - 83.10 area
Support 2: 80.00 - 80.60 area
Support 3: 76.80 - 77.80 area
Support 4: 75.50 - 76.20 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Israel strikes Iranian consulate, what does WTI chart tells us?Hi, 1PERCENT here.
Today I am sharing a chart that I drew a few years ago.
Contrary to crypto where we have fast movements of 30% intraday,
Bonds, commodities, inflation rates, etc. are "slow movers"... but only in peaceful times.
So patience is required for investors who focus on the forest. You were correct, but 10 years early. Now is your time to shine.
#PeterSchiff #MikeMaloney
WTI crude oil price that bounced from the $68-74 support zone .
This support zone held well even last year when mass media and the EIA (US government's puppy) kept screaming that we have an oversupply of oil & gas.
Remember what happened back in 2022 when oil went to $128? Especially those in Europe & Asia?
Pay attention & Be prepared for the changes occurring in our societies.
Stay safe.
1PERCENT