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Oil prices rebound on expectations of Chinese economic stimulus Oil prices rebounded as Chinese authorities demonstrated their strong will to stimulate the economy. Chinese authorities announced that they will continue to respond to the economy with a more active fiscal policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption. Meanwhile, Aramco announced it would cut its OSP for Asian refineries to 90 cents lower per barrel. This is the lowest since Jan 2021, when global demand was weak due to the pandemic. USOIL briefly broke below the support at 67.60 but rebounded, compensating some of the decline. However, the price stays within the downward channel, maintaining bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below 67.60 again and the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA78 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 70.00 threshold.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
WTI recovered slightly, the outlook tilted to the downsideWTI TVC:USOIL increased slightly in the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), trading around 67.50 USD/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply last Friday, closing near their lowest level, mainly due to expected declines in global demand. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December increased following the release of US nonfarm data. According to CME Group's FedWatch, federal funds rate futures trading points to the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. point in December was nearly 90%, which will provide some support for oil prices. Currently, uncertainty about the geopolitical situation increased again at the weekend, making the medium-term recovery of oil prices still not optimistic. In the short term, crude oil traders need to continue to observe whether the pressure brought about by the geopolitical situation on the supply side will support oil prices to continue to recover. Essentially, this week will continue to focus on changes in inventory data and whether demand-side pressures ease. This week, the financial market in general and the crude oil and WTI crude oil trading market in particular will focus on US CPI data. On the daily chart, WTI TVC:USOIL although it recovered slightly in the opening Asian trading session today (December 9), it still has all the technical factors supporting bearish expectations. With the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel followed by the short-term price channel, it has both a long-term and short-term trend of decreasing prices. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is also under main pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, if WTI crude oil is sold below 65.28USD, there will be a prospect for a new downtrend to open, and the technical point of 68.34USD is the closest resistance currently. The relative strength index also maintained price activity below the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for WTI crude oil technically. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil on the daily chart leans bearish with notable points listed below. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 68.34 – 69.51USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
My Bearish Setup in Progress on WTI Crude Oil WTI crude oil has been in a steady downtrend and recently formed a potential supply zone (purple area) around $69.50–$70.15, aligning with a key inefficiency. Price action suggests a bearish reaction at this zone, with the potential for lower highs before a continuation to the downside. Liquidity below $66.68 is the next probable target as sellers dominate the market. The setup favors waiting for price to tap into the supply zone, showing clear rejection signs before executing shorts. A break below recent lows would confirm bearish momentum, with further downside targets in the $65.50–$64.50 range.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by TopGBanks
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral af. Two weekly bear bars closing on their lows the past two weeks. Before that we had 12 weeks of most alternating bull/bear weeks. Can you get bearish now for a stronger leg down? I highly doubt it. Market has not had a weekly close below 65.6 for exactly a year. 65.6 is the November low and I expect it to hold. So looking for longs is probably the way to go but bulls only produced one single bull bar in the past 2 weeks. Need more buying pressure before looking for higher targets. I won’t touch it for now. Quote from last week: comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70. comment : Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 73 bull case: I won’t make up stuff here. Market has no direction for years now and the range is contracting. Bulls want to stay above 66 and test the upper bear trend line around 70 again. That’s about it. Invalidation is below 66. bear case: Bears are in control but it’s clearly a very weak trending trading range. We are inside nested triangles on higher time frames and selling below 67 has not been profitable for more than an intraday scalp since mid 2023. It hasn’t been profitable to get bearish below 67 for that long, why would you now. Invalidation is above 71.6. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. → Last Sunday we traded 68 and now we are at 67.2. Good outlook but trading ranges are not rocket science. short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI OIL Bullish break-out to $76 imminent.WTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following our last call (November 26, see chart below) on high precision as, after once last pull-back to the Support Zone, it is now rebounding: As you can see now on this 1D chart, the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today but based on the other 2 November attempts, even a candle close above it doesn't translate into a sustainable break-out. Contrary to that, however, those 2 attempts weren't supported by a 1D RSI Higher Lows base similar to September's. As you can see that same pattern was that initiated the rebound on the Support Zone that broke above the 1D MA50 and extended even above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and tested the bottom of the 4-month Resistance Zone. As a result, our $76.00 Target remains intact, which is marginally above the 0.786 Fib and projected to be just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
2024-12-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Bulls did what they had to, to prevent a flush down to 66. Market traded above 70 and we made a higher low. Bulls would need to print 71.5 for a higher high and I can’t see that happening as of now. Chop between 68 and 70 is most likely here. comment : Midpoint of this triangle is around 69.3 and this will be a magnet until we either make higher highs or lower lows. It’s a trading range, don’t over analyze it. current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 66 - 70 bull case: Bulls had a decent day and turned the market completely neutral again. Only above 71.5 they are favored for higher prices. For tomorrow I expect some more sideways price action between 69 and 70.5. Invalidation is below 66.27 bear case : Bears need to keep it below 71.5 or we are making higher highs again. They tried to close below 68 for 4 days and today we saw bears giving up on it. Bears are still favored to keep it inside the triangle, so either play the range or don’t trade at all. Betting on a huge breakout is not a decent strategy after going sideways for so long. Invalidation is above 71.5. short term: Neutral inside the triangle. Area round 70.5 should be huge resistance. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have longed anywhere and made money. 1h 20ema is strong support until broken.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI CRUDE OIL: targeting 95.00 with support by the 1M MA100.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.599, MACD = -0.340, ADX = 19.425) as the price hasn't practically moved for 3 straight weeks. Even the 1W RSI remains neutral (RSI = 46.004) as the last 4 candles have closed inside the 1M MA50 - 1M MA100 range. The 1M MA100 is basically supporting the pattern since April 2021. As long as it does, chances are will see a strong rebound to the R1 level, a price action much like what followed the 2013 consolidation that pivoted to Leg (4). A similar S1 Zone was supporting on the 1M MA100. Consequently, we turn bullish on WTI expecting a R1 test in the coming months (TP = 95.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
1
Oil prices fall despite positive Chinese manufacturing data Oil prices dropped for two consecutive days due to a strengthening dollar despite positive manufacturing data from China. The November Caixin manufacturing PMI in China hit 51.5, surpassing the expected 50.5 and marking the highest level since last June. Attention now turns to the OPEC+ meeting on the 5th, where the group will discuss whether to extend crude oil production increases. Originally, OPEC+ planned to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day starting in January, but concerns about oversupply may delay this decision. After briefly testing the support at 67.60, USOIL rebounded slightly. The price stays within the descending channel, and the gap between both EMAs has widened further, indicating bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the channel's lower bound and 67.60, the price may fall further to 64.80. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 70.00.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bearish. Bears printed 4 consecutive bear bars and made new lows. Next target is 67. Only a daily close above 70 would do it for the bulls but even then the next bear trend line runs below 71. Market is once again forming nested triangles on the daily chart. Tough to trade. Quote from last week: comment: Was also bullish on this and bulls finally came around. Clear break of the bear trend line and next target is 72.6. Is this a very bullish structure? Hell no. I expect more sideways movement just in a bigger range 69 - 72/73 until the bear gap is closed. If bulls somehow manage to close it next week, we can expect 75+ next. Continuation of the current range is much more likely though and that is why you should not over analyze trading ranges. Market is in balance in the midpoint, so mark it and fade the extremes. comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 67 - 72.6 bull case: Horrible week for the bulls with a clear sell signal going into next week. They have to defend 67 or we will likely go down to 66 or 65.74 again. Bulls who bought 67 have made money since September and we have no reason to expect it to be different this time. Daily close above 69 brings 70 and 70.5 in play. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: I do think Monday’s bar was a big bear surprise and market went mostly sideways afterwards. They also had a really good reversal on Friday which is a sell signal going into next week. They want to test the November low 66.27 and break below the very shallow bull trend line to test 65.73 or the lower bull trend line starting December 2023 at around 64. Invalidation is above 71.6. outlook last week: short term: Bullish that we reach 72 but upside is probably limited after that. Pullbacks are likely to be bought if not too strong and if we stay above 68. → Last Sunday we traded 71.24 and now we are at 68. Outlook was just plain wrong and that was already clear on Monday at US open. Market basically went nowhere after that. short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
WTI - Stability in the Middle East!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward correction continues towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us. Following the ceasefire in Lebanon, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that in the coming days, the United States will work with regional countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel, to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that guarantees the release of hostages and the end of the war.However, he emphasized that such a ceasefire should not allow Hamas to remain in power. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. This tariff will also include crude oil, with no exceptions considered. Additionally, Trump is preparing another executive order to lift the suspension on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits that was implemented under Joe Biden’s presidency. This executive order might require the Department of Energy to approve pending permits or resume reviewing new applications. This move is seen as part of Trump’s early energy policy agenda. Wall Street has expressed concerns about the potential impact of Trump’s second term on oil prices. Analysts suggest that oil producers may try to boost production before stricter regulations from the Biden era return. However, some experts believe that the nature of shale oil production in the U.S. makes long-term supply increases challenging. Unlike OPEC nations, where oil production is often controlled by national oil companies, oil production in the U.S. is divided among major corporations, independent producers, and private companies. This analysis aligns with Goldman Sachs’ outlook. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that U.S. crude oil production will increase by just 500,000 barrels per day this year, down from the 1 million barrels per day increase seen last year. Nevertheless, the U.S. will still account for 60% of non-OPEC oil production growth, with the Permian Basin in North America expected to grow by 340,000 barrels per day—lower than Wall Street’s initial projection of 520,000 barrels. According to Bloomberg, Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have reached their lowest level in two months. The four-week average of these exports up to November 24 dropped to around 150,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth decrease in five weeks. This decline is largely attributed to a significant reduction in oil flows to India, Russia’s primary buyer, although weekly exports have seen a slight uptick. Additionally, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan have issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of market stability and their commitment to voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. In this context, Reuters analysts predict that OPEC+ will likely maintain its oil production cut policy for an extended period due to weak global demand. This group, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil production, faces challenges in deciding whether to increase or further reduce production. Increasing production is risky under current conditions, while further cuts may be difficult due to some members’ desire to boost output. Meanwhile, rising gas prices have posed significant challenges for European policymakers this winter. Javier Blas, a Bloomberg analyst, believes that Europe has not yet fully faced the realities of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He warns that Europe has overly attributed last year’s successes to favorable weather conditions. However, these conditions have changed, and this winter is expected to bring higher gas and electricity prices. This situation places significant pressure on energy-intensive industries, with many large factories either reducing activity or shutting down. Households, too, will face greater inflation due to higher energy costs. These challenges have also put central banks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England under pressure. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have risen to €47 per megawatt-hour, which is double the February price and 130% higher than the 2010–2020 average.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
WTI crude looks poised for breakdownWTI has held the key resistance level of $69.30 today, marking a pivotal level on the intraday charts. Here, the resistance trend of the bear channel also came into focus. With support at 68.60/68.70 area broken, this level is now the most important short-term resistance to watch now. I think if we get a retest of this level from underneath, it could get sold and cause prices to drop to take out liquidity resting below the most recent low at 68.06. My next downside target would be $67.00. News of ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has helped to weigh on prices, potentially a positive step towards regional stability.
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
WTI OIL crucial test on the 4H MA50WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) hit yesterday its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and just after it broke, the short-term correction took a pause. As long as it holds, there are higher probabilities of initiating the final rally towards the Resistance Zone. If it breaks though, we expect a test of the upper levels of the Support Zone, before the rebound. Either way, our Target is $76.00 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level). This is because we believe it is replicating the September bottoming pattern, where after an initial 4H RSI Bullish Divergence (Higher Highs against Lower Lows), the price rose and got rejected back to the Support Zone, only to rebound to the 0.786 Fib of the previous High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
WTI: Crude oil drops amid ceasefire reportsCrude oil prices tumbled on the back of reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The news also sent gold prices lower. If confirmed, this will remove some of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, which had provided support for oil since Israel’s war started. Today's drop means, WTI has held below key resistance around $71.50 - $72.50 range. While below here, any short-term recoveries like we have seen last week would be against the underlying trend. Short-term support around $69.29 to $70.00 was being eroded at the time of writing. A close below here could pave the way for a potential retest of recent lows around $67.00, below which we don't have much in the way of support until $65.00. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom