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Williams %R (%R)

The $CRON -ic is here to stay (Canada legalization)2018 is the year of legal weed in canada; listed on NYSE a few weeks ago as well so us americans can get some decent exposure too without having to fuss with the TSX or OTC nonsense. I see a breakout of the ichimoku cloud, a fractal breakout being called by williams trader beta, and also a trend breakout. Wouldn't surprise me if we dip and test the pennant again before we go up.. Decent RR here 3.5:1 (manage your risk accordingly) GL HF xoxo snoop
NASDAQ:CRONLong
by 420snoop
3
AUDNZD Big Short SwingEarlier this week, AUDNZD provided a quick short opportunity after a minor pullback. After hitting a price target perfectly, it has pulled back to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This was also confluent with the 89 EMA, which has proven to be a prominent resistance/support with this pair in the past. The third confluent factor is the fractal resistance occurring at the same level as the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 89 EMA. The last downward wave has also provided a confirmed trendline that can be used as a price target - which happens to coincide with a major previous support. The first price target is based on an immediate support level for some safe profits. SL: 1.0777 TP1: 1.066 TP2: 1.058
Short
by UnknownUnicorn769459
BTC - The Bullish Scenario to $11.5kThere's a lot going on on this chart, so don't worry, I'll explain it. You guys already know how bearish I am, and that I do believe BTC will hit the lower trend line of this triangle again and bounce before we hit $5k and bounce again. BUT, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't consider this bullish view. I've been working with bullish scenarios and seeing which one is the most likely to occur. I think this one would be the best alternate to my bearish view (look at related articles). In short: Bullish View: 1) Currently bounce $9580 2) Drop to $8200 3) Next bull run to $11,543 What invalidates bullish view: 1) A drop below $7800 2) No break of the blue support line This means that we need to go lower to go as high as we want. A continuation of this downtrend is definitely of a higher probability as of now. Oddly enough, my bearish post (Does the BTC daily MACD Trend Continue) shows that we may bounce at the $8200 level before continuing the downtrend. Chart Explanation: Head and Shoulders: Right now we are working on a head and shoulders pattern, and if we break the blue support line, then the formation is valid and we will drop to the mid to low $8k range, specifically $8208. Williams %R: In a way, this indicator shows the strength of the trend along with peaks and valleys where we may need a pull back or bounce. Right now we've already broken the 50 line, which is a hint that we may continue this downtrend. IF it crosses the 80 line (at the bottom), then that is a bearish signal that the downtrend may continue. But if we stop before then, then thats a bullish signal that the uptrend may restart. OBV: The volume on this trend has been very low, and its an indication that we may fall back down (one reason why I'm bearish). However, there is a trendline here for this downtrend, and the OBV is showing room to continue upward to that downtrend line. We're getting bearish divergence all over the place on multiple indicators, so to me, that will be a hard task. Ichimoku Cloud: (Conservative Settings on the Ichi Cloud are being used) So, if you are unfamiliar with the Ichimoku clouds, its okay, its actually pretty simple. The Cloud itself can act as either a support or resistance. And the orange line (Kijun-sen) often acts as a support line. Well here's a strategy to the Ichi Clouds, when you close a candle inside the cloud, you can often target the other side of the cloud. Not only that, but when the opposing side of the cloud is flat like it is on the chart. It usually acts as a magnet, attracting the price to that point. These strategies don't always work, BUT, if we gain support at the Kijun-sen (orange line) and bounce, then that may be a good indication that we do head to the $11,500 target. Trend Lines: Right now we're in a big triangle. That white dotted resistance is going to be a tough one to break for now. along with that, the blue dotted resistance will be a tough one to break as well, especially if the support falls through. Right now, trend lines are working against BTC and it will be a hard task to reach $11,5k. Overall, like I've said, I'm bearish and I don't think this will play out. BUT, it is an option that we must consider, and there are enough supporting claims that this can happen.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Elijah_Trading
EDUCATION: Bitcoin's Recent Surge and the Problem w/ Williams %RIt's now more than two weeks since my successful call of Bitcoin testing the bottom , with the BTC price increasing more than $2K since my initial idea was published. The price action hasn't been too volatile since a 1K spike 10 days ago, something which caught my attention as well. Despite this successful run from BTC, the continuous indication of "overbuying" per Williams %R has been problematic for my analysis. The goal of my published ideas is to indicate outliers that predict upcoming regression, which in turn presents ideal BUY and SELL points for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. That goal has been recently compromised by %R indicating an overbuy for 11 of the past 12 days. While this indicator puts us on alert to sell, there isn't any actual market substance behind the call to action. And thus, the problem with Williams %R is illustrated. Allow me to explain, but first, let's look at the equation for %R: %R = (Highest High - Close)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * -100 Any security with a %R over negative-20 is considered to be overbought, while any under negative-80 is oversold. In other words, applying current context, if the distance from the current BTC price to the 14-day high is less than 1/5 of the 14-day high-low range, Bitcoin is overbought. So in theory, the 14-day high (and anything 5+ times smaller than the 14-day range) will ALWAYS be overbought. This is far too simplistic for the stat to be constantly relied upon for day trading. The results are NOT distributed normally enough for the indicator to consistently find the proper outliers. Just look at BTC. Bitcoin dropped from 19K to 6K mostly due to regression from the massive buy outlier that got the coin to its all-time high. BTC then bottomed out around 6K because it was pushing the boundaries of normality, per the regression trendline established in my first published idea. The current push back near 9K is natural as well. So why should any 14-day peak in this context be looked at as a legitimate overbuy, especially when the BTC price action is arguably the most controlled its ever been? Also, look at %R from a structural standpoint. It is far too simplistic, compared to the likes of RSI. The averaging required for the RSI helps to normalize the result distribution. This is how RSI is calculated: RSI = 100 - (100 /(1 + R.S))... R.S = Average Gain / Average Loss Note that an RSI above 70 is considered overbought, while an RSI under 30 is considered oversold. In other words, the average gain would need to be more than 7/3 times greater than the average loss over a 14-day span for Bitcoin to be overbought. Here, we see averages upon averages. The gains and losses for RSI are calculated from close to close in my ideas, meaning that absolute highs and lows over the 14-day period are not considered. Here's the important thought that comes to me: statistical indicators should be designed to locate outliers, and as such, outliers should be eliminated with the equation itself. I'll illustrate my thought more simply in a sports context. Would you rate players' performance based on the success of Michael Jordan or LeBron James, as opposed to average-level players? Of course not, because most players look inferior compared to GOAT-tier players. For this reason, the Williams %R is prone to providing misleading information in certain contexts. As mentioned in one of the comment updates of my last idea, I will drop %R from my analysis. While sometimes it is a great indicator, it is too flimsy in application for me to constantly trust it. I'd much rather use RSI, which distributes its results more normally than %R. I hope this education has helped in some way. My best to you, as we trade!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by tabsports
FOLLOW-UP: Bitcoin successfully tested the bottom; Now what?MAGIC is just a bunch of illusions. But then again, so are Bitcoin spikes. After very successfully calling out Bitcoin for "testing the bottom" one week ago -- unlike nearly all of tight-pictured ideas on TradingView -- I am back again to check in on our Crypto market leader. BTC just closed above my pink trendline channel. For those that didn't see my first published idea , this trendline connected the lows on 2017-09-15 and 2018-02-06. The channel of this trendline included a price range of +440 for the upper bound and -440 for the lower bound of the pink trendline, giving us a chance to see more of a resistance zone instead of one simple line. Furthermore, in the last 24 hours, BTC flew past the lower bound of my regression trendline, which reflected lows on 2017-09-15 and 2018-04-01. Note that the two trendlines in focus here recently crossed over, with the regression lower bound now having the higher ground. While breakthrough past the notable trendlines is a major victory for Bitcoin and crypto as a whole, it should be noted that BTC increased by more than 1K in just a 40-minute span. This spike is incredibly misleading when comes to technical analysis, simply because it is an outlier. So maybe this is an unsustainable victory. Therefore, what we need to do is look a bit deeper to assess the sustainability of Bitcoin above the pink trendline channel. As with my previous charts, I have included the RSI and Williams %R to help indicate if the recent price momentum led to any overbuying and overselling. While RSI has "crossed over" above 50, which is a technical buy symbol for some investors, the %R is actually indicating a technical overbuy on the daily charts. Note that overbuy signals don't necessarily mean it's time to sell right away; the %R must first crossover back inside of the normal range. It's entirely possible a rally continues for a few days while still being overbought. So it's best to say the signals are a bit mixed, meaning we are possibly destined for some sort of decline in the next few days. The big question now is quite simple: Will any potential regression from the April 12 spike send Bitcoin back into the pink trendline channel? Let's consider that $7642.79 is the pink trendline upper bound for today's candle (April 13) and that $7662.94 is the boundary price for tomorrow. It wouldn't take much, all of roughly a $250 decrease to swing back into that channel. Overall, I'd say the news is good. Major players like Fundstrat and Pantera are saying that we reached the bottom, so better days are yet to come. Serious institutional money (see: Rockefeller, Soros, etc.) is entering the crypto space, and you'd best believe that those whales will pounce on solid buy opportunities. And if Q2 history has a say, that recovery back to five-digits is possibly in the works for BTC. Ultimately, if you're a regression analyst like me, you'd mostly believe that even if short-term regression sends Bitcoin back into the pink trendline channel, the bottom I called will most likely provide key support to eventually kick-start a run into the bull market. Don't be fooled by all the illusions. No Elliott wave, bear flag, inverse cup and handle, or fractal can illustrate the big picture quite like simple regression analysis at times when a security is acting like an outlier. My first published idea illustrated where the normal bottom was for Bitcoin. Any confirmed push below those trendlines would've indicated an overselling outlier, thus it is not something you can normally expect. All those calls for 5K, 4K or even 3K were simply ignoring the regression analytics. In fact, they were calling for major outliers to occur, and that is just downright reckless, in my opinion. However, before we start calling this recent price increase "a win," let's see what the next few days tell us. The sp
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by tabsports
When Larry Williams UO told us that Bitcoin is going to crashUltimate Oscillator: This is a range-bound indicator, which means the value fluctuates between 0 and 100. Similar to the RSI, levels below 30 are deemed to be oversold, and levels above 70 are deemed to be overbought. Transaction signals are derived by finding situations where the price is going in opposite directions than the indicator. Once this divergence has been identified the trader will wait to confirm the transaction by using other technical indicators. Here are trading rules: www.marketinout.com Following this, UO indicated us to go short (red arrow). Since then there has been not "close" signal for this trade. Very interesting - I came across this indicator studying new entry/exit strategies. I am about to backtest this indicator on my trades for the next months whether UO is worth considering.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by JaDeVin
BEST MOMENTUM TRADING STRATEGYBCHUSD 15M WILLIAMS %R INDICATOR STRATEGY My 15m scalping technique - 14 length Our team at Trading Strategy Guides believes that a momentum indicator strategy can reduce risk and enhance your overall returns. One of the core market principles is that momentum precedes price so in this sense a momentum indicator strategy is more like a trend following strategy. Essentially trends tend to continue and we can use momentum to determine when to buy and when to sell. There are various explanations for why momentum occurs. The simplest explanation would be that rising prices attract buyers and falling prices attracts sellers. Using a momentum indicator strategy, it means we’re only going to hold the trade for a very short period of time, anywhere between a few minutes and up to a few days. Basically, the best momentum trading strategy runs until the momentum drys out. So, we only want to concentrate on the relative strength of any instrument. The best momentum indicator is by far the Williams %R indicator. This momentum indicator will help us identify profitable trading opportunities. Works with all market and time frames. The preferred settings for the best forex momentum indicator is 40 periods The Williams %R runs on a scale from -100 to zero. A reading in the vicinity of -100 is an indication that the instrument is oversold and it’s a potential buying opportunity and once it reaches zero, that’s an indication of overbought and maybe the time to sell. Step #1: Define the Trend. An Uptrend is defined by a Series of HH Followed by a Series of HL. The definition of an uptrend is pretty much standard. In an uptrend, we look for a series of higher highs followed by a series of higher lows. Two HH followed by at least another two HL is enough to define an uptrend. A higher high is simply a swing high point that is higher than the previous swing high. While a higher low is simply a swing low that is higher than the previous swing low. In order to gauge momentum besides reading the best momentum indicator we also look at the actual price action. Step #2: In an Uptrend Look for Bold Candlesticks that Close Near the Higher End of the Candlestick. A common concept in technical analysis is that you want to use multiple confirmation signs when buying and selling. This will increase the likelihood that’s a high probability trading setup. In this regard, the momentum trading strategy besides using the best momentum indicator also incorporates the price action. A practical way to read momentum from a price chart is to simply look at the candlestick length. What we want to see in an uptrend is big, bold bullish candlesticks that close near the higher end of the candlestick. Step #3: Wait for the best Forex Momentum Indicator to get oversold (below -80) and then rallies above the -50 level before Buying In an uptrend, we buy after the best momentum indicator has reached oversold conditions (below -80) and then rallied back above the -50 level. Now, we have confirmation from both the price and the best momentum indicator that real momentum is behind this trend and the probabilities are in favor of more upside prices from here on. Note* If the best momentum indicator continually stays in overbought territory (above -20 level) it signals a strong momentum and conversely a strong trend. Inversely the same is true in a downtrend. Step #4: Place Your Protective Stop Loss below the Recent Higher Low We want to hide our protective stop loss below the most recent higher low level that formed right before the best momentum trading strategy issue the buy signal. Alternatively, you can also trail your stop loss below each most recent higher low. This strategy will allow you to lock-in the potential profits in case of a sudden market reversal. Step #5: Take Profit once we break below the Previous Higher Low Alternatively, you can take profit once the best momentum indicator breaks below the -50 level.
B
by Tradingstrategyguides
1
BTC Setting Up For Big Bullish Move COINBASE:BTCUSD Bitcoin is setting up to do something exciting. We have a potential huge inverse head & shoulders developing on the daily chart, and now that we have overcome the large downtrend line, we should be watching for higher lows and higher highs as signs to accumulate coins. On the hourly chart, I see old resistance becoming new support around 10765, and the 50ma (green line) as well as a bullish trendline converging near the most recent resistance point soon. The hourly 50ma and/or 11150 likely need to be tested again before a strong run, but seeing VWAP has been reclaimed shows buyers are already showing up, so this could go sooner than later. I'm buying dips here. As long as 10750 holds, we are cleared for take-off. Otherwise, I'll watch the hourly 200 ma (~10500) to hold for the next signal to buy-the-dip. A rejection at the yellow previous resistance line ~11720 would produce a buyable pullback as well (perhaps to the hourly 50ma), so I'll be watching that price line closely if we reach it soon. A breakout over that line with volume could run for days given that the distance between the head and the breakout point would be nearly a 100% move. The lower indicators are also promising, with the WIlliam %R looking bullish with a double bottom support around the -50 line on the daily, and the hourly just now pulling over that midline. Breakout could be eminent...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Red_Ben
EMC2BTC - Much drama and emotionsThere has been much drama in the crypto space around EMC2. When it was taking off, people were calling it the best coin ever. When it corrected, there were cries of EMC2 being a scam. I'm not going to comment on any of that as everyone is free to have their own opinions. Zooming out the chart that was previously posted and adjusting the trendlines a bit, we can see that the so called "dump" was only a correction to the existing trendline which is also around the 0.618 Fib. I personally think this resilient little coin will continue to perform and impress. After all, it did climb while all others bled.
ELong
by Proteus555
2
EMC2BTC DeviationEMC2BTC possible continuation of it's long-term uptrend. So, generally my idea is that scary short-term traders lowered Einsteinium price and it may continue to go up based on latest news. By applying Fibonacci Retracement to that graph, we observe that price went till 0.5 fib level, which is ordinar situation. In my opinion, EMC2BTC will continue it's medium-term trend and soon will reach new heights. My suggestion for you is to buy EMC2BTC now and hold it till 01-10 October. By looking to Williams R% indicator you will see that price didn't break bottom border, which is good signal to hodl .
by bejaneps