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Weeklyoutlook

20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33 Last weeks low: $64227.62 Midpoint: $60753.92 We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin. The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K. Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again. For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
by ProR35
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF. In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
by ProR35
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58 Last weeks low: $56,573.01 Midpoint: $60,657.29 As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now. From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally. We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows. For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
by ProR35
29/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67244.99 Last weeks low: $62406.59 Midpoint: $64825.79 As Bitcoin continues it's multi-week sideways chop , there really isn't a great deal to talk about in terms of price action other than it's extremely boring and potentially dangerous. I say dangerous because it's this kind of chop that separates the impatient and the patient. Trading price action like this especially using leverage is bound to end poorly as both long and short sides get caught up in a serious of stop hunts. The only trades that could be made are the extremes of the range that are set. There is some hope however, the HONG KONG ETF's for BTC &ETH go live from tomorrow (30th April) . This could bring in-flows that have been missing in recent weeks as BlackRock and co. have dramatically lowered their in-flows and Greyscale continues to dump. Perhaps this new demand can absorb some of the Greyscale outflows? Or maybe it will be a non-event? We will keep a close eye on this throughout the week. There are also rumours that Australia will join the ETF movement too in the future. The general Altcoin market is currently in a very oversold condition , having said that the relief bounce does not look to be in sight anytime soon, no point trying to catch a falling knife, if anything focus on DCA'ing (Dollar cost averaging) into strong projects but with a long term outlook. Narratives such as RWA, AI, DePIN etc. In the short term all eyes are on last weeks low and if it can be reclaimed, if not 58K area is on the cards.
by ProR35
22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53 Last weeks low: $63230.46 Midpoint: $59603.38 The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly. Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time. Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth. This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend. Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
by ProR35
15/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $72799.81 Last weeks low: $66731.50 Midpoint: $60663.19 BTC HALVING WEEK! A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600 . What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy. It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data: - In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH. - The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top. FA and Geo-Political influences: - The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise. - Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive. For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
by ProR35
08/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71365.43 Last weeks low: $67932.12 Midpoint: $64498.81 Trading can be a very complex and difficult profession to be profitable, however it can often be made more simple. The 4H 200EMA can be used to indicate the direction of the market, for 2 months now BTC has reliably been bouncing off the 4H 200EMA making it great support and an ideal position to enter a LONG position. Last week we saw BTC fall as the monthly candle closed which ended the first quarter of the year. Then after reacting positively off the key moving average priced rallied back towards the '21 ATH level of 69K which is HTF support and got back above it. In addition to reclaiming a key level, funding has cooled off and looks much healthier, the halving is less than two weeks away , Greyscale continue to sell but they are slowing down. All signs are bullish for this week and the first few hours of trading have shown it as we blast towards 73K. For this week I am going to continue to build on positions made last week during the dip while keeping and eye on BTC targeting ATH, I believe the conditions are now right to make a run for new highs. BRC20 tokens could be worth keeping an eye on as BTC looks strong as well as RWA's.
by ProR35
01/04/24 Weekly outlook (Q2)Last weeks high: $71771.20 Last weeks low: $69088.87 Midpoint: $66406.55 Q2 BEGINS! BTC saw a 91.35% increase from yearly open and closed out Q1 at ~71K . A very strong first quarter on the lead up to The Halving now less than 20 days away we have only a few more weeks to get set for the event which historically brings new highs after. Now that we have ended the month of March and begun Q2 , we can see that the bulls really pushed for a strong monthly close above the '21 ATH level of 69K, a very important S/R level and now we have closed above on the monthly it's confirmed as new support. Almost instantly after the monthly close price did drop back down to the previous weeks Midpoint of the range and the important support level. I do think we range for a while and build a base in the lead up to the Halving, any dip is probably a good entry point for long a long term hold as historically new highs come soon after the halving. For now I think we'll see a continuation of select alts having double digit days with BTC & ETH staying relatively flat . In my opinion we're at the low cap/memecoin stage of the cycle and just waiting for the next big BTC rally to start the whole cycle again and have money flow back into BTC. Next rally should target 86K (1.272 FIB extension) and with supply halving and ETF backing I do believe it's achievable this year perhaps even this quarter.
by ProR35
2
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9 Last weeks low: $64863.9 Midpoint: $60752.0 Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first. So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price. I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion. The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. . This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally. 25 Days to The Halving This weeks focus: - BTC S/R Flip - ETH RWA's
by ProR35
2
18/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73775.8 Last weeks low: $69170.3 Midpoint: $64564.9 After making consecutive new ATH's Bitcoin has now experienced it's first prolonged pullback. Before these last few days we saw each dip as more of a leverage flush with a near instant V-shaped recovery. This however is more of a traditional pullback, the main level of note is the previous cycles ATH of SWB:69K . The MIDPOINT now signifies that level and for me and on the HTF a potential Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) . If we do see a clear rejection off SWB:69K This could be the start of one of Bitcoins signature 30% Bullrun pullbacks to punish late longers and any unexperienced retail holders. This would see price drop to FWB:52K area. Personally I think leverage flushes are going to be common place as they always are and we are due a routine pullback, A pre-halving pullback occurred in the previous halving, -20% before rallying post halving. If we assume history will repeat itself then that would see price fill the large wick at GETTEX:59K from the previous flush, entirely possible in my opinion. As for the bulls, the ETF'S have been buying up any sellside pressure since the beginning of the calendar year and with the halving only ~30 days away it's hard to see Bitcoins price being allowed to fall as what is essentially a land grab is going on, there are simply too many buyers. The Nvidia AI conference begins today! Monday until Thursday and the crypto space is anticipating volatility to come from this event. Projects such as RNDR, FET, NEAR and other AI & DePIN tokens are expected to be impacted the most. The question is always going to be is this a sell the news event? The AI space has rallied significantly in the previous months however I would say that company with a valuation of $2.2T, (roughly 50% more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin) , bringing attention to these crypto projects and at least making the link between the two is a positive for the industry and can only bring more attention and money to the space.
by ProR35
2
11/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69934.6 Last weeks low: $64483.4 Midpoint: $59032.3 Bitcoin experiences its highest ever weekly close in history falling just shy of $70K . The previous ATH tested and bested multiple times during the previous week and broken yet again already this week hitting $72K ! The Market Cap has overtaken Silver to become the 8th largest asset by MCap . We are now in price discovery territory and ~38 days away from The Halving . Blackrock continues to buy and now closes in on MicroStrategy who has been accumulating since August 2020. MicroStrategy recently bought another 12,000BTC to stay in the lead but it looks like BlackRock will inevitably overtake them in holdings. BlackRock: 2 Months - 195,985 MicroStrategy: 42 Months - 205,000 Bitcoin has maintained its march onwards and Ethereum still lags behind. A close eye on ETH/BTC pair shows that on the 1W 200EMA is now flipped to support after breaking out of a multi-year channel since May '21 . ETH after broking $4K ~20% away from ATH. Altcoins along with Ethereum are still lagging as BTC dominance continues to rise, however it doesn't necessary mean BTC is a better investment, once BTC dominance looks to have topped, the Altseason will allow Altcoins to catch up. This week we continue to monitor the progress of the crypto market on the leadup to The Halving .
by ProR35
2
03/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64271.5 Last weeks low: $57579.4 Midpoint: $50887.4 BITCOIN ATH IS IN SIGHT! A crazy final week of February closing the monthly candle with a record single candle gain in the history of Bitcoin! A +52.8% gain in a single month ($22,134.20) . This price action has lead us to a situation that has never been seen before in this markets relatively short history... Never has BTC broken its previous ATH before The Halving , yet the we are currently -5% away from ATH with approximately 49 days to The Halving . With new institutional buyers involved in this cycle it is clear the schedule for what we have become used to has been sped up significantly and we can now expect for the ATH to be broken even before the mining reward gets cut in half! Another metric that can be used to gauge our progress in the cycle is general sentiment and retail interest . So far the news cycle is quiet about crypto and the standard retail investors that general give a top signal are nowhere to be seen currently. This is all very bullish for the space and indicated room to grow. For this week I will be planning how to preserve my capital and manage my greed accordingly. As it stands the FEAR AND GREED INDEX is 86 which should be taken into account. I do think once BTC breaks past its previous ATH the news will start to cover more stories about BITCOIN which could also bring retail investors to the table, maybe they forgot about their spot positions they bought at the peak of the last cycle and would look to cash out at break even and therefor increase selling pressure? That may not happen but planning for it helps in case it is a sell the news event. My general thoughts for this Bullrun remain the same a buy and hold strategy will outperform the day trader but -30% flushes are perfectly normal in these conditions so it's always important have some cash in reserve to add to narrative plays.
by ProR35
26/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $52994.8 Last weeks low: $51757.7 Midpoint: $50520.6 Another big week in the world of crypto! As predicted BTC has been ranging consistently between the local high of 53k and the support of 50k . Since Bitcoin has been moving sideways we have seen profits rotating into ETH sending it above 3K and the broader altcoin market. We see this regularly in market cycles as capital trickles down the market cap leader board. Now it seems the ETH/BTC pair is looking more bullish we could potentially see further chop for BTC as it builds a base for the next leg and allow alts to play catch up for a short time. This week I believe there may be some buying opportunities as some of the indicators reset and the key moving averages help to support price, the 4H 200EMA being the key one for altcoins. Bitcoin remains bullish over the 48K level, under that and I think we see a flush/ deleveraging event going into the halving which is less than 2 months away now. We have seen a few times recently just how quickly the market panics when BTC moves even a few % in the negative direction. Exercising caution and protecting funds are so important as the Bullrun is just beginning.
by ProR35
19/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42846.80 Last weeks low: $50286.30 Midpoint: $47725.79 BITCOIN has finally done it! BTC has flipped the all important 49K S/R level and has had a week of confirmation meaning 49K is now major support and a new trading zone has been entered. Last week we saw BTC continue the rally that started the week previously with a near linear move up towards the resistance level, now the chart shows at the 0.25 level price broke through that level and had a successful retest followed by a further push up towards just shy of 53K . This price action initially took capital and interest away from the altcoin market, however now that we have some sideways chop as BTC establishes a base for which it can push towards the halving and ATH, some of those profits have now cycled through to ETH and the altcoin market with some double digit returns across the board. All this price action is very bullish from a TA standpoint along with the FA side of things with BlackRock now owning MUN:10B + in BTC for their ETF the sell pressure has definitely dropped and with the halving fast approaching the supply will drop even more. For this week I would not be surprised if we see a revisit of the midpoint ~$50K area and continue ranging for a little bit while altcoins rally and play catch up. In particular the AI coins have shown particular strength and I do think this category of altcoins will outperform a large portion of the market. I would begin to get worried if we see BTC fall back below the 49k range although the longer we stay at the current level I think the less likely that is to happen.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
12/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48582.05 Last weeks low: $45414.55 Midpoint: $42247.04 What a crazy rally from BTC last week! From the very start creating the weekly low and the end of the week creating the weekly high with a near perfect linear move up. With 49K as the local high consolidation just under this level is extremely bullish and with the halving moving ever closer BTC is looking very strong currently. I believe that most people myself included would see one last drop towards the mid 30K range to really catapult up from there, the big ETF players could lower their DCA and propel BTC to a new ATH a few months after the halving. However max pain would simply be BTC leaving everyone that is waiting for lower prices side-lined and push up towards the highs ahead of schedule. So for this week a close eye needs to be on the structure of BTC around this local high. Any swing fail pattern would be very tempting to enter a short position, I believe a lot of people would welcome that setup, if that was the case you would need a very tight SL in case the rally continues. The more chop we see at these levels the more likely that is too happen in my opinion.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
05/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43871.39 Last weeks low: $42838.73 Midpoint: $41806.06 Last week we saw the first month of 2024 come to a close as well as FOMC , this in my opinion contributed to the chop throughout the week with no clear direction in terms of trend. BlackRock continued to buy up BITCOIN and now hold ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of the asset. Last week in my outlook I thought that the target of 44.5K is where the bulls needed to aim towards and ideally flip to support however they have fallen short and now I think looks a little heavy. I've said previously I could see a slow bleed towards 33K and it's beginning to look more and more likely as the bulls seem to be exhausted. This BTC price action has had an effect on the ALT market with the majority of pairs bleeding off too, potentially leading to great long term hold entries in the near future on exciting new L1's and other narrative coins. Historically February is a good month for BTC so there is hope on the bullish side, with the halving on the way too buyside pressure will grow naturally, in the short term arguments can be made for both sides and I think that's why we're seeing chop and indecision currently, until there is a clear direction only the nibble and very skilled traders are risking this price action. For me I am looking into where I would like to buy strong alts at key levels for swing trading timeframes.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
29/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42827.56 Last weeks low: $40677.38 Midpoint: $38527.20 As the first month of 2024 nears its end BITCOIN finds itself back above 40K after spending half of lasts week below the big even level. There are 3 main FVG's I have my eye on: - At the previous weeks MIDPOINT level 40.5K (1H) - The drop from 49K has left a large FVG at 45.5K (4H) - The daily FVG at 33K (1D) Price tends to get pulled and pushed towards these areas of imbalance. HTF imbalances have the largest force of attraction so in this case the 33K daily FVG is the main target in my opinion, and there are many possible routes to this destination. As it stands BTC is above both 40.5K & 33K FVG's and ideally we would need to retest these areas before progressing towards ATH' s post halving which would also mean clearing the 45.5K FVG on the way back up. For me this is how I think it will play out however if BTC pushes towards 45.5K first I will also be prepared for this move. For this week I'm concentrating on how BTC regains its strength and if price were to reach the 45.5K FVG , I would think about taking any profits from the recent move should BTC look weak, as I have said that 33K area is calling out to be revisited in my opinion.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19 With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level. I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING . For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key. In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength. Short term bearish long term bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
2