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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST AUG 26 - 30th: S&P NASDAQ GOLD SILVER OILThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast AUG 26-30th. In this video, we will cover: S&P500 NASDAQ DOW GOLD SILVER US & UK OIL Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!
by RT_Money
2
26/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,969.66 Last weeks low: $57,798.14 Midpoint: $61,383.90 Another week has passed in the crypto world and another week of Bitcoin recovery. Now hovering around $64,000 zone after a battle around the range Midpoint which was also the 4H 200EMA, BTC has flipped bullish on all major MA's and is looking to target the '21 ATH which has historically been the area where BTC has struggled in the last few months. With the US presidential election nearing and the FED rate cuts approaching even sooner, there are a lot of significant FA factors to consider. I think most people were under the impression that the ETF's and the halving would have more of an instant impact on price, we have seen a rally for the BTC ETF but that classic post halving boost has not yet panned out. It does have the feeling of all stars are aligning in the coming months to push through that ~$70k resistance and enter price discovery. Current sentiment is mostly pure boredom and that has lead to impulse moves in the past. For now I think the important places to look are in the altcoin space, having been decimated in the last few months now is a good time to seek out strong fundamental projects that are looking to lead the way for the next year or so. The altcoin season index is currently @ 22/100 indicating that the market is heavily Bitcoin dominated, suggesting that altcoins need to play catch-up and will outperform BTC by doing so.
by ProR35
19/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,782.68 Last weeks low: $56,107.68 Midpoint: 58,945.18 Apologies for the late WEEKLY OUTLOOK, let's go over last weeks PA. A much tighter spread between weekly high and low last week compared to the week before. As BTC continues its recovery from the JPY carry trade dump we are back @ 4H 200EMA for the 5th time since losing support during the dump. For me this follows the same pattern as has been happening all year, flip the 4H 200EMA and aim for the '21 ATH @ $69,000. What happens at that level is nearly always disappointing but with rate cuts coming next month, maybe that will finally change. From the weekly range chart I do see the midpoint being important for the rest of the week, the recent 1h surge has come from the Midpoint level, flipped the 0.75 and now targeting range high which would put BTC over the 4H 200EMA point. The FOMC minutes takes place on Wednesday of this week and may provide some volatility, however the general consensus is that a rate hike is coming next month, the real question is will it be 25 Basis Points or 50bps. For this week it's more of the same in terms of being patient and trying not to get caught up in the chop. With the general sentiment being that the Bullrun will continue soon it's tricky to find the right entry at this stage if you haven't already. Patience is key.
by ProR35
1
12/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $62,761.55 Last weeks low: 49,017.27 Midpoint: $55,889.41 Quite the week in crypto just gone. From our first sub $50,000 BTC since mid February thanks to the JPY rate hike , a single day decline of -16% on Monday to then a strong recovery of +28%, a lot of volatility. The two peaks for the week coincide with the 4H 200EMA resistance level , which is a problem for the bulls as now that the final hours of Sunday trading dipped price below the 1D 200EMA , Bitcoin has a difficult week ahead to break back above those moving averages. A big news event week coming up could continue the high volatility we've seen in recent weeks: - US PPI 13th - US & UK CPI 14th - JPY & UK GDP 15th For this week I will be looking closely at the news events that could cause volatility and perhaps give a sign of trend direction going into the September FED rate cut .
by ProR35
3
05/08/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,078.54 Last weeks low: $57,217.14 Midpoint: $63,647.84 Have we just witnessed capitulation after a week long slide in BITCOIN and crypto as a wholes price? -30% in 7 days, or is this part of a larger sell-off? Here are some of my thoughts: - '21 ATH REJECTION - As I have said in many of my previous posts the '21 ATH @ $69,000 is a level that BTC just cannot seem to break. Since the beginning of this year BTC has printed an SFP (swing fail pattern) 6 TIMES! This outright refusal to break through clearly creates a problem and when LONGS have been exhausted trying to break through this impenetrable barrier, naturally price must retreat and start again from a point lower down, we are seeing that now. - CARRY TRADE - The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has RAISED RATES from 0-0.1% to now 0.15-0.25% after the conclusion of its 2 day monetary policy review. This has not only cratered the NIKKEI 225 -13.5% (at time of writing) but that has also has a domino effect on other traditional stocks & indices. It may not seem like a big rate hike but the underlying meaning of the hike is the problem. With it comes a hawkish approach for the foreseeable and that has the rest of the world worried because it shuts the door to FREE CREDIT. When the Yen is free to borrow which it has been up until now it weakens JPY again USD, that free YEN is borrowed using assets as collateral and then used to invest into Real-Estate for example and yields more, keep the profit and pay back the JPY using USD which is gaining in strength, a two fold win. However, now that JPY isn't free to borrow and could potentially get more expensive to borrow in the future it means those people no longer have access to free credit and also the JPY is getting stronger against the USD. A two fold loss from what was a certain win. That has caused the panic and sell-off. - GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE - There is no denying the world is in a state of worry geopolitically. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 17% since July 1st and I don't think that is a coincidence when the the wider market, especially big tech is falling of a cliff. When war is a possibility/ inevitability, risk assets struggle, this is only natural as investors play it safe and try to protect what they have. A growing selling pressure and a lack of buyers will cause a market to retreat every time. This week I'm looking for BTC to form a new base for us to bounce from, with rate cuts coming from September onwards and a Weekly Bullish Orderblock filled this is a possible long term entry position in the making. Need to see some strength returning first but as the saying goes, buy when others are fearful and sell when they are greedy. TL;DR - '21 ATH SFP for the 6TH time this year, exhausted rally. - JPY rate hike closing the door on carry trades, huge selling pressure. - Geopolitical uncertainty, risk-off environment.
by ProR35
29/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,404.60 Last weeks low: $63,458.72 Midpoint: $66,431.66 As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH. Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC. Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line. This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
by ProR35
22/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68,476.68 Last weeks low: $60,656.67 Midpoint: 64,566.67 On my last weekly outlook I commented on the nature of the weeks rally and how it began at weekly low and finished the week at weekly high. The same thing happened almost identically this time with a weekly low of just above $60,000 rallying +13% to reach just shy of the '21 ATH at $69,000. The recent run of price increases comes after the German Government sold over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of BTC pushing price down. Having now run out of BTC to sell the momentum has shifted and the net inflows have now been consistent ever since. With the presidential race now in the business end of the race, Trump is scheduled to be at the Bitcoin Conference in the 27th this month and there is There is "speculation that Trump may announce the establishment of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve". A pro crypto president of the USA would no doubt bring great interest and innovation to the country in the future but also brings about a new element of FOMO to sideliners and doubters of crypto's legitimacy. I can only predict this is a good thing between now and November at the very least ramping up exponentially as we nearer the election date. This week it's all eyes on the Bitcoin Conference, and also monitoring the progress of the Ethereum ETF. BTC has lead the recovery charge with altcoins still lagging a little behind as focus has once again shifted back towards the majors after a heavy sell off.
by ProR35
15/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,431.5 Last weeks low: $54,288.74 Midpoint: $57,860.12 Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result. CPI (YoY): FORECAST: 3.1% ACTUAL: 3.0% The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast. PPI (MoM): FORECAST: 0.1% ACTUAL:0.2% Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since. Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish. Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key. Close above $61,500 = BULLISH Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun. Close below $61,500 = BEARISH A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.
by ProR35
2
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22 Last weeks low: $53,536.87 Midpoint: 58,710.54 A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure. From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions. This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past. This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there. Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
by ProR35
01/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,700.01 Last weeks low: $58,451.16 Midpoint: $61,075.58 Q2 ENDS - Q3 BEGINS After a rough quarter of sideways chop, ranging between ~$56K-73K it's safe to say that the last 3 months has been a tough one for the crypto markets. Despite the frustration with price it's important to realise the positive elements of the last quarter. The ETH ETF approval, THE HALVING, consolidation at the '21 ATH level are all bullish for the industry as a whole. As the weekly, monthly and quarterly all close, July 1st almost feels like a new chapter, one that needs to begin strong. Last week we saw BTC dip to the 1D 200EMA for the first time this calendar year. This is not uncommon in a Bullrun, a bounce off that moving average while it is trending up is often a good R:R entry level for a HTF position. This lines up well with how last week played out and until price breaks below the moving average and changes its trend direction, I do not believe we have reason to panic. As the first few trading hours of the new quarter have completed we can see that there is a clear S/R level at the 0.75 range line that was flipped, I would like to see a positive reaction off any retest of that level. As I stated before starting a new quarter positively can have a positive impact. Staying above $62,400 is important in the short term, $65,000 is resistance and an important S/R zone. In the altcoin market tomorrow is an exciting day as the ETH ETF goes live , we've seen what an ETF can do with BTC and potentially the same thing can happen with ETH, the difference in my opinion is that institutions and larger investors were all expecting the BTC ETF to be approved when it did. However, I do not believe that those same players expected ETH ETF's to be approved as soon as they did. It is no secret that the SEC has been arguing that Ethereum is a security and therefor comes under the SEC's regulatory power which was always a point of contention and made ETF approval unlikely. Now that the probe has been dropped by the SEC and they have relinquished power over the cryptocurrency, the ETF is set to go live and I believe the big players just weren't prepared for this to happen so quickly hence the delay in price movement comparable to BTC. We shall see if this delayed response continues as trading goes live but I have no doubt that over the long term this is a net positive for ETH and the altcoin market. In the broader alt space we can see clear signs of seller exhaustion . BTC dropped 10% last week and most alts didn't react anywhere near as negatively as this move usually does. That to me is a clear sign that sellers are all sold out and that buyers are happy to DCA in at these levels to balance price. This week I am keeping an eye on those altcoins that outperformed BTC last week on their BTC pairs with good fundamentals as these alts will perform the best on the next rally. ETHEREUM ETF trading is the main talking point of the week and I will be monitoring that closely. GOOD LUCK FOR Q3
by ProR35
2
24/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67,290.83 Last weeks low: $62,212.60 Midpoint: $65,251.72 Despite the seemingly endless chop, last week was a very interesting one for BTC. Micro strategy added ~$800 worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheet, putting them at 226,000BTC, just over 1% of the entire BTC supply that will ever exist! In relation to microstrategy, Michael Dell has been sending some cryptic tweets reacting to the news that Saylor has added even more to their balance sheet. “Scarcity creates value” was his response. With the news that Dell is potentially buying or looking to buy Bitcoin it’s strange that BTC has dropped in price overall with overall sentiment in the space being very negative. As we continue to slowly sell off and alt oins continue to get destroyed in both their stable and BTC pairs, I would like to see a clear capitulation wick with obvious strength on the bounce. It’s hard to say at what level that will come to, many are calling for GETTEX:52K which is a clear Bullish OB+, so it could be there however that would be devastating for all alt coins and may/probably have a bearish effect on the launch of the ETH ETF which is coming in the near future, 1/2 weeks. For this week it’s purely about survival and looking for signs of capitulation, max fear and showing of strength following any potential sell offs. A slow bleed down within a range is very hard to catch the bottom but it would be better to see clear signs of reversal.
by ProR35
17/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,207.85 Last weeks low: $65,079.20 Midpoint: $7,643.52 Bitcoin over the last week is in a clear downtrend, despite midweek volatility caused by the CPI & FOMC news events. The results of those news events overall were positive and we saw the reaction of that with a move from 0.25 level to range high. Yet price rejected yet again from the '21 ATH / range high levels before printing Lower highs and Lower lows making BTC LTF bearish. Altcoins are being destroyed during this chop, clear downtrends sub 4H 200EMA and a lot are retesting their 1D 200EMA levels for the first time in months. Only a handful of well performing exceptions are surviving but even they are running out of steam e.g. LSE:ONDO , LSE:TON , $JASMY. I think I could see a sweep of the previous weeks low, before we see any sort of rebound and aim for MIDPOINT. The 4H 200EMA is sat at just below MIDPOINT and so there is huge resistance there, a rejection of that level continues the LTF downtrend. This week I am continuing to monitor the Bullish Divergences that are appearing on the 4H & 1D and looking for any clear reversal in trend direction. For now I cannot see what catalyst would be responsible for turning this price action bullish, but that is what my focus is on, until then this is a no trade environment in my opinion.
by ProR35
3
10/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,199.84 Last weeks low: $67,611.61 Midpoint: $69,801.22 Chop, chop and some more chop for Bitcoin. A steady a climb for BTC last week from range lows made at the beginning of the week with a high just shy of $72K before freefalling to the 0.25 line which coincides with the '21 ATH level l, and a bounce back up to the midpoint which is currently LTF resistance. The altcoin market is looking in pretty rough shape in comparison to BTC, many have halved since their highs and are now retesting their 1D 200EMA's for support. In a Bullrun you'd expect these levels to hold and can offer great Long entries, I'd like to see BTC show strength above the '21 ATH because if we see another drop below alts will follow and once below the 1D 200EMA we could be in trouble for a while. For this week I am looking at potential alt longs at the 1D 200EMA levels but being very aware of Bitcoins price. No trade if BTC is below SWB:69K as that would be yet another failed ATH run, and would look to target lower down in the chop range.
by ProR35
03/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,741.40 Last weeks low: $68.714.79 Midpoint: $66,688.18 As we enter the Midway point in the calendar year BTC finds itself continuing to battle its '21 ATH. For many weeks now we've seen this key S/R level flipping from support to resistance and vice versa, will we finally see a breakout move above this week? Although for the last few weeks the general attention has been focused on the ETH ETF, now that that is over and had a bullish turnout the market is looking for BTC to lead the way. Price is now above the 4H 200EMA, Post-halving supply shock effecting tokenomics positively in terms of supply and demand and currently breaking down the previous cycles high. Given all that in mind I think the patient will be rewarded as I think when BTC does get a clear run, most likely when Greyscale stop selling at a rate that causes outflows to overcome inflows. Top buyers sell pressure is relieved as holders who were underwater all bear market sell their positions and give way to buyers with high conviction. Then we will see BTC target $80K, only a matter of time. This week I am focusing on BTC strength and signs of a breakout, I would say that once BTC breaks out, ETH will break above $4K and target ATH @ $4.8K. Things to look out for is any US news that could effect the markets; law making, Veto's etc. Hopefully you had a good first half of 2024 and good luck for the second half!!
by ProR35
27/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,999.47 Last weeks low: $69,028.57 Midpoint: $66,057.66 After a historical week for the crypto space with the ETH ETF approval has meant that BTC has taken somewhat of a backseat. Currently battling with the '21 ATH at SWB:69K while ETH is beginning to pic up strength in the ETH/BTC pair and take volume away from Bitcoin. Ethereum has been a relatively slow mover in comparison to some of the rest of the altcoin market. However, now that the ETFs are approved and it is to be expected that ETH will have huge Inflows just as BTC did with a >50% increase since approval. All this means that I could see BTC fighting the '21 ATH for sometime while the altcoin market and mostly ETH will take the spotlight for the next week at least. SWB:69K lines up well with the weekly range Midpoint and that's the key battle for BTC, so far this Bullrun we've seen BTC lead the way generally, could it be time for ETH to take over? This week I think ETH and ETH beta plays (OP, ARB, LDO, METIS etc) are the ones to watch, I would be cautious when it comes to Longing ETH blindly at this level, yes the massive demand increase will help price rise but as we saw with BTC after ETF approval, price did drop 18% over two weeks post approval. I'm not saying this will definitely happen with ETH, so far despite an initial 10% whipsaw price has stayed generally the same with a slight move up, however It is worth noting.
by ProR35