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Weeklyoutlook

23/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $108,403.98 Last weeks low: $92,261.97 Midpoint: $100,332.98 Last week we saw a swing fail pattern (SFP) of the week previous' high. Ever since then it's been a steady sell off throughout the week, mostly thanks to JPows FOMC statements despite a 25bps cut as forecast. BTC is now battling the 4H 200 EMA for the first time since the US election, a much needed pullback or the start of a further sell-off? Going into the holidays we should expect a lower volume as whales take some time off, retail will remain as crypto is shilled to family members over Christmas dinner so the market will continue to be interesting. The 4H 200 EMA is a key battleground, I would have hoped to see a better reaction off the moving average initially but maybe this is bad timing due to the holidays and lower volume, or the reluctance to open new trades while markets are shut etc. This week is obviously quiet in terms of data releases, there are various token unlocks ENA, IMX, FET and burns for some key altcoins such as ISP & BONK. I think the general consensus is that normal service will resume in January once everything opens back up. So for this week it's probably better to set alerts for key areas you want to get involved in, planning for when volume returns to the markets and when Trump takes office too. Merry Christmas to all and good luck!
by ProR35
16/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $106,649.88 Last weeks low: $94,177.33 Midpoint: $100,413.61 A new ATH for BTC last week as we saw $106K for the first time, truly amazing price action since the Trump election win. NASDAQ:MSTR , IBIT and other massive institutions are continuing to buy with more companies having rumoured to add BTC to their balance sheet, demand is strong and does not seem to be going away as we go into the end of the quarter/year. This week we have many different data releases from the UK, US & ECB. Naturally volatility is expected around these events, it also makes traders a little tentative to enter into trades, I would say this is more accurate during bear markets/ choppy conditions. Right now we're in a strong Bullrun and therefor the momentum is less news data driven and more a race for institutional buying, It's a given at this point that we're in a period of rate cuts and so that is factored into price. Altcoins have seen a recent pullback despite BTC pushing higher, this is as a result of the BTC.D chart tanking when alts took the liquidity from BTC profits and so dominance did see a correction. This latest BTC move up while alts are down is just a continuation of BTC.D continuing its surge as it always does in the Bullrun before the true altseason where alts outpace BTC after a blow-off top. This week I'd like to see BTC come through data events unscathed with altcoins bouncing off the 4H 200EMAs and starting the next leg up going into year end.
by ProR35
02/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $98,894.77 Last weeks low: $90,786.17 Midpoint: 94,840.47 Last week was all about altcoins as Bitcoin takes a backseat after a the "Trump pump" rally. Consolidating just under the $100K big even level has seen rotation into Ethereum finally and more surprisingly dino-coins such as XRP, LTC and more. XRP has rallied to ATH (+300%) in less that 1 month, the news that Gary Gensler will be stepping down and with that the SEC's tirade on Ripple. The momentum and talk of the space is with XRP for now as it overtakes the Mcap of Tether to go 3rd! This comes at a time where typically BTC profits rotate into ETH and yet a lot of the capital has gone into XRP instead and so Ethereum is still way behind, BTC, SOL, XRP are all at ATH. With the new month beginning we typically see a shaky start to the month, especially after such a strong close. The fear and greed index for BTC is @ 80, that's down from 94 in the week previous (mid November). The drop off is also evident in the BTC.D dropping 3% as alts move up. This week I'm focused on where we are in the cycle, many alts are climbing and of course the $100K event for BTC. I believe we are not anywhere near the cycle top, any on-chain indicator would support that but that does not necessarily mean we aren't close to a local top. A strong bearish divergence has emerged on the weekly and that is cause for concern, overbought RSI high fear and greed and euphoric sentiment on the TL. Any new longs are extremely risky for now (LTF not HTF) without any fresh bullish news events. Price currently at midpoint, hard to tell how deep the monthly open sell-off will be, a quick wick with fast recovery will be bullish but a slow bleed would be more worrisome.
by ProR35
1
25/11/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $99,591.61 Last weeks low: $89,381.02 Midpoint: $94,486.31 Crypto continues to climb! Bitcoin less than 0.5% off the famous $100,000 milestone, we could see it broken this week if momentum is to continue going into month end. Last week we saw a steady climb from Monday to Friday with a similarly steady sell-off over the weekend, mostly due to lack of institutional buying that we've been used to since the Trump election win. This drop in buyers over the weekend naturally brings price down as the buyside demand drops, however it is expected to return during the weekdays. Altcoins benefited from this reduction in BTC buyers with a shift from institutional whales to more retail players over the weekend. I expect to see the momentum return to BTC during the week. We saw BTC ETF options trading launch last week with 83% of hundreds of millions of dollars in volume betting on the price being higher, one contract of which (C100) expires on 20th Dec says BTC price will double in 1 month! This week the question is will we see $100k, and what will happen if we do? Naturally there is a psychological importance to a big even number like this, and for retail investors that could be considered as a big thing, a possibly bearish level as retail takes profit, the story hits the mainstream news and creates a sell the news event? In previous cycles I would have said that was very possible, however, now the market is driven by institutional investors, ETF's and whales. These people are not interested in these 'big even numbers', they're interested in the bigger picture and for that reason I could see BTC blasting through $100,000, catching retail sidelined and having them panicking to re-enter, that's when a possible pullback could happen as that would be max pain for retail. I do think a pullback is coming eventually but for now the structure is very positive, shallow pullbacks are being bought up quickly with HH's & HL's consistently. For this week I am looking at ETH against BTC as it looks to claw back some gains having been left behind this cycle so far. Altcoins are looking good too, the longer BTC pauses the more money will flow into alts, however any significant pullback in BTC will nuke alts as it has all year.
by ProR35
GOLD Weekly Outlook Nov. 24, 2024Gold has aggressively bought up into now a premium level to finally begin to send price lower. Staying with my initial bias, that we have indeed capped the high of the year for Gold given the fact that it has bought aggressively the entire year and must now form the closing wick for 2024 trading year. For the upcoming week I'm anticipating rejections out of the imbalances currently above price and the daily order block currently above price. I would love to see Monday range and either Tuesday or Wednesday manipulate that range. Looking at the Economic Calendar I see that the first significant High Impact news event occurs on Wednesday (Unemployment Claims 8:30am, and FOMC Minutes 2:00pm). so I would like to see that day either manipulate or be a continuation day from a Tuesday manipulation. If you have any questions regarding this analysis or outlook, feel free to send me a message here or on my other socials. Thanks.
COMEX_MINI:SILZ2024Short
by chaarate
18/11/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $93,269.62 Last weeks low: $86,738.62 Midpoint: $80,207.62 The "Trump pump" continued last week as BTC hit a massive $93k, another new ATH. Later in the week some of that progress did retrace mainly due to news events such as CPR & PPI data as well as profit taking/ de-risking. This week should be an interesting one as we see an early surge after weekly close putting BTC back at $92,000. As president-elect Trump announces his picks for roles in his new administration, the rumour is that Howard Lutnick may become Treasury secretary after backing from Elon Musk and RFK Jr, Lutnick would be a very pro crypto choice which has great potential for the space, with a new SEC chairman after the firing of Gary Gensler and the potential Bitcoin strategic reserve. Things are looking bullish bullish bullish! With BTC.D now at 60%, this would indicate although BTC hit new ATH altcoins are outpacing the market leader in growth. Memes are taking centre stage this Bullrun even though historically that stage of the cycle tends to be towards the end. Every other metric suggests this Bullrun is far from over so it's definitely something to take into consideration. This week I would like to see some breakout continuation patterns on fundamentally strong altcoins, as well as bitcoin, I do believe it is dips are for buying season going into the end of the year. A dip could be triggered by a loss of the diagonal support & 0.75 line shown on the chart which would provide a better entry/DCA opportunity after a leverage flush.
by ProR35
3
11/11/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $81,532.47 Last weeks low: $66,852.48 Midpoint: $74,192.48 BITCOIN ATH! After a Republican victory in the US election. A massive moment in history and the markets have reflected the enormity of the moment. Since the announcement of a new president BTC burst through the $74,000 ATH price has continued to climb all the way to a weekly high of $81,500 a +10% move and +22% move for the week, very strong PA! Investors have clearly taken well to the news as BTC has a net inflow of $1.63B last week from the various ETFs, a staggering sum! Clearly an indication of investor confidence, and to prove that point even more GOLD has taken a tumble at the same time BTC is making new highs, a shift to a more risk-on environment that is further fuelled by the 25bps cut during last weeks FOMC. This week we have some important data news coming with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday. Traditionally these events can be volatile however I believe this time they will have less of an effect on the market just due to what's happening in the broader macro environment, the rate cut plus a more pro-growth presidency is enough for a more bullish/risk-on bias. This week the main focus is on altcoin analysis of first movers, strong performers and what's lagging. Having a plan for when BTC hits its first FIB EXTENSION @ $83,500 depending on how price reacts to that level, it would be reasonable to expect a pullback in which I would say $77,500 is the level I would like to hold. Good luck everyone!
by ProR35
04/11/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73,633.97 Last weeks low: $67,477.38 Midpoint: $70,555.67 ELECTION WEEK IS HERE! This is the one we've all been waiting for and probably been nervous about. On the 5th November the US election takes place, now we might not know for certain who has won on that day but we should have a good idea barring no funny business. At time of writing, Trump leads the betting market polls 57.7% : 42.3% which is down significantly from last weeks high of 67%. A lot can happen between now and tomorrow but for BTC and crypto in general a Trump win should be favourable to the markets, a Harris win might delay cryptos progress IMO. If the US election wasn't enough for one week FOMC takes place a couple of days later. With a forecasted cut of 25bps coming taking the interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%. The last FOMC saw a 50bps cut so the FED is rapidly moving to a more risk on environment which should be pro crypto, however I do think the election result will dwarf this FOMC in importance as the 25bps cut has been known about for awhile and most likely priced in. Obviously the election is the main focus of this week, a number of projects have token unlocks this week too: Larger % circ. supply: NEON,BANANA,ADA,XAI,BGB,AGI Smaller % Cir. supply: SOL,WLD,TIA,TAO,AVAX,DOGE,SEI,NEAR,DOT,SUI&FIL The altcoin market is still at the mercy of BTC and BTC is at the mercy of this election currently so we'll have a better picture of what the future may look like by the end of the week.
by ProR35
28/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,526.58 Last weeks low: $65,268.55 Midpoint: $67,397.56 2021's ATH of $69,000 was once again broken last week, that makes it the 8th time this year BTC has broken through that level. Each and every time so far price has rejected off without price acceptance above it. We are now 7 days away from the US election, with Trump in the lead in the polls and Wall Street preparing for another Trump presidency I expect to see crypto start to push on after the 8 month chop. The plan for a Bitcoin strategic reserve and favourable law-making towards the crypto market is a positive. We also have the FTX distribution in 2 weeks, that's $16B coming back into the market, perhaps not all of it will stay in crypto but even if a portion of that remains that will be a significant boost to buyside pressure. All in all BTC is in good shape currently, I would like to see acceptance above the all important $69,000 level by the end of the week setting us up well for the US election. Obviously what happens there is unknown until we get the result and typically fear can be negative for the markets so maybe we don't see acceptance this week but I am confident that the R:R at current price looks good with many signals showing growth is likely going into the end of Q4.
by ProR35
PLATINUM | XPTUSD Weekly Outlook Oct. 21st: BULLISH Bias!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th. Platinum is heading towards the Swing High with good momentum. Target should be achieved this week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers, and I respond to every comment. Like and/or subscribe if you like the video and want to receive updates directly. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:PL1!
by RT_Money
21/10/24 Weekly outlook (day late)Last weeks high: $69,001.51 Last weeks low: $62,475.70 Midpoint: $65,738.60 Bit of a different weekly outlook this week as I couldn't post yesterday. So with the benefit of hindsight it looks like we have a swing fail pattern in the making after taking the liquidity from the $69,000 ('21 ATH) level. I would say judging by the chart I would want the downside to be capped at the Midpoint, continuing the trend pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The '21 ATH has been the biggest hurdle for BTC over the last 7 months with repetitive rejections, if the lows can keep creeping up then eventually we should get a spring above and that should be the move for an ATH run which should happen soon after if all goes well. Naturally we have ever increasing outside interference with the US election just around the corner, we know this is likely to cause volatility so be careful of that. Prediction markets like Polymarket have Trump as favourite, he is the pro bitcoin candidate so it should be a positive for the space if he were to be elected but you never quite know what will happen until it's confirmed. This week I want to see BTC continuing to make higher lows and higher highs. Altcoins have cooled off a little too after the initial BTC burst up from $60,000 so I'm looking for opportunities there too.
by ProR35
WTI CRUDE OIL & BRENT OIL Weekly Outlook: Wait For SELL Setup!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th. US & UK Oil have been up and down throughout this Mid East crises. WIth a strong bearish candle and close last week, the indications are that the market has taken a bearish turn. I will be watching the market closely for a pullback to the newly formed Daily -FVG for a high probability short setup. Take caution, day traders. As there will be buys to take as price retraces up, but I would urge you to remain patient and wait for the HP sells. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!Short
by RT_Money
SILVER | XAGUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Wait For BUYS!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th. After closing last week with a strong bullish candle, the week ahead maintains a bullish bias. Be mindful of a short term pullback this week, as price tends to retrace after breaking swing highs. Just remain patient and wait for valid buy setups in this case. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by RT_Money
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Keep BUYING!This weekly forecast is for Oct. 21 - 25th. Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
S&P500, NASDAQ, & DOW JONES Weekly Outlook Oct 21The 3 Indices are in position to move higher. I am looking for buys setups, as my bias is bullish. My first targets are the PWHs, and potentially ATHs. I've included some notes on how I project bullish targets above ATH's. Tell me what you think of it in the comments section. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by RT_Money
14/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,486.09 Last weeks low: $58,947.36 Midpoint: $61,716.73 Following a busy week of Data events with CPI & PPI price can be volatile and unpredictable, that was evident as BTC can be seen selling off going into those data events and despite a worse than forecast CPI, the markets responded quite well leading to a climb from Thursday onwards up to the 0.75 line. A weekend of chop gave a positive enough close to warrant a large buy candle in the opening hours of this week, could this be setting the pace for the rest of the week? For me, I'm always a little wary of a "swing fail pattern" (SFP) as these patterns can be very bearish, a reversal at the beginning of the week can lead to a sell off that undoes the previous weeks work as price falls. Confirmation of this pattern would be a wick above weekly high followed by smaller lower highs and lower lows on a LTF (15m). Should BTC manage to stay above the weekly high and maintain structure the target is $66,500. This is an important target as Bitcoin has been trying to breakout of this downtrend for 6 months, anything beyond $66,500 is breaking out of the trend after 10 attempts! This week we have the ECB interest rate decision, a second rate cut looks likely, the first rate cut set the pace for the US 50bps cut. Now the US look likely to cut by another 50bps in November to keep up. Altcoins are starting to look better than they have in the last two quarters. The timeline is cautiously optimistic, especially if BTC manages to breakout of the trend pattern. cautious optimism on the timeline
by ProR35
07/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $65,605.03 Last weeks low: $59,829.32 Midpoint: $62,717.17 After geo-political escalations causing panic in the markets at the beginning of last week, BTC has been spending the second half of the week trying to recover losses. The 1D 200EMA came in as support midweek to cap the sell-off, a steady climb back up flipping the 4H 200EMA back to bullish and finally the week low reclaim in the dying hours of the week. This to me is very positive, showing strength in times of major uncertainty. Another outside force Bitcoin will encounter is the US presidential election, that is now less than one month away and definitely will sway traditional markets and crypto alike. This week we have some key data events: Wednesday - FOMC minutes As the unemployment data came in better than forecast, this could be a sign of further rate cuts to come in November, we may get some clues on this in the report. Thursday - CPI (YoY) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.3% Actual:??? With CPI forecast to drop closer to the FEDs 2.0% target, anything lower than 2.3% would be positive for markets, 2,3% is probably priced in and anything above would be negative for markets. Friday - PPI (MoM) Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.1% Actual:??? Similar story in PPI as CPI, forecasts are for another drop and markets could react similarly to what's stated above. Data events can be a non-event but now that the rate cut cycle has begun and the US election is on the way these events are more important than ever.
by ProR35
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: GBPUSD GBP | GBPUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.3000. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6B1!Long
by RT_Money
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
1
30/09/24 Weekly outlookFollowing a very important week in the macro economic landscape, a round of rate cuts that signals a pivot in how governments are tackling their economies, bitcoin saw a surge from the start of the week right through until the end of the traditional trading week on Friday. Up +6.3%. Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are. This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this. We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
by ProR35
23/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,141.61 Last weeks low: $57,492.86 Midpoint: $60,817.24 Pattern continuation for Bitcoin from the week that came before last, steady and constant move up +11.55% from week low to high. The FOMC was the big talking point of the week, would the FED cut 25bps or 50bps, the answer was 50bps with a view to stay ahead of the curve. Making the rate of borrowing cheaper incentivises risk-on investment and so we have seen the start of that with the recent move up from the midpoint/ Having said that, typically when the week starts by swing failing the previous weeks high that often leads to a sell off week historically. This would go against the larger macro narrative that the market is turning back bullish after 6 months of chop. If anything this is the perfect test for Bitcoins resolve, if it overcomes a swing fail and continues a move up then the sentiment and macro outlook will be very positive going into Q4. $65,000 is still major resistance and should be the bullish target to flip this week. The altcoin market is starting to wake up, should BTC accumulate around the $65,000 area I'd like to see alts/TOTAL3 playing catch-up. If BTC flips the $65,000 with strength we are off to the races.
by ProR35
16/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $60,638.89 Last weeks low: $54,371.86 Midpoint: 57,505.38 Bitcoins price action mirrored that of the week that proceeded it, with a steady climb from the start of the week, peaking on Friday close, witha weekend sell off to end the week. Looking at the chart the Midpoint needs to hold if there is a chance of continuing the rally beyond $60,000. I could see price action being nervy until the FOMC in midweek. Last week we saw BTC go through multiple news events such as CPI, PPI in the US but also the ECB rate cut decision. The European central bank cut the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, a cut of 60bps. This news has flown under the radar in my opinion, not many people are reporting on it could play a part in the FEDs decision on Wednesday. So far the rate cut looks to be a 25bps reduction from 5.50% to 5.25%. That leaves the US significantly higher than Europe and so in theory Europe would have the opportunity to be more risk-on than America as credit is cheaper. I would think that the US wouldn't like this and would seek to do something about it, that something would be a bigger cut, a 50bps cut closer to the ECB would bring the US more inline. Naturally this being the beginning of the rate cut cycle it's a marathon not a sprint and although the ECB started out strong the cuts may taper off sooner than the US, that's a whole different story but for this week this is the big focus.
by ProR35
09/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the bottom of the daily downtrend channel. US CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) this week, as with big news events we can potentially see volatility, this will be the last US CPI before rate cuts begin in the US, in Europe rate cuts are forecast to begin on Thursday, predicted to drop from 4.25% to 3.65% according to invesing.com, a 60bps cut. Another major news event this week is the Trump v Harris Presidential debate. I'm not expecting a whole lot of crypto talk in this debate, if I'm being completely honest I can't see it being an adult debate about political policy at all. However, I do think it will have an effect on the markets one way or another, obviously Trump is the better outcome for crypto if he stays true to his plans set out during the Bitcoin conference compared to the plans for the Harris administration to tax un-realized gains which is not very pro-investment. Again, I'm not holding my breath for any information on crypto but it is a major news event all the same. So in conclusion this week is full of news events that could create volatility, with BTC at its current level nearer the bottom of the daily trend. It does feel like we're maybe coming to an end of the chop with monetary policy pivot taking place soon.
by ProR35