Very interesting similarity between the ES1! and YM1!I was recently watching a video in the ideas section of trading view and I notice this person speculates that the price will drop lower in the Dow Jones. Interestingly enough, this also lines up quite well in my charts. It's important to notice that many differences exist between these two tickers. The fluctuations of the CBOT_MINI:YM1! and the CME_MINI:ES1! are quite different. I had to adjust the n data previous points in the short term mean return indicator to 20 as well as set the sensitivity to 2. This way the chart was not overcrowded and easier to read. As well as larger short term MA and distribution was needed.
I'll take advantage of this difference to explain what happens when the parameters in the indicator change. There are two factors to the sensitivity of the indicator. One is the number of previous days considered (parameter n). The higher this value is, the less sensitive the indicator is, therefore it's better at detecting longer term trends. This is the reason why I include 2 in the indicator. One to see the short term trend and one for the long term trend. This in addition to knowing where we are in the distribution help me for a hypothesis of what is most likely to happen next.
One key factor of my strategy when trading is to never go short unless you are absolutely sure you are correct, always look for discounts and take profits. It's better to buy at discounted prices than trying to catch both waves of the market. You already know the market did one wave, what do you think will happen next? Of course, the next wave! I personally trade with no stop loss to not materialize erroneous entries and look to buy even more as prices continue to drop and are at attractive levels. Unless there is a clear possible break of market structure like it's visible here, as the 200MA has been used in the past as strong points of support and resistance. If this structure is broken, then it's quite possible that price will trend even lower, so this trade does require a stop loss.
When I was more of an intermediate and unprofitable trader, I relied a lot on two indicators, which did give me the ability to make somewhat accurate predictions. Since tradingview has kept increasing the restrictions on free accounts, I had to choose between two of my favorite indicators. The RSI and the MACD. I chose to keep the MACD as it's visible on previous trades. Mean Returns offers the value of these two indicators into one, plus tests out a new hypothesis that I've been testing so far with great success.
The basic premise of this indicator is to chart the market cycles in terms of average returns generated in the n periods before and the current one. Additionally, it creates the supposition that the market has inertia and therefore is likely to continue doing what it's already doing (aka: the trend is your friend)
I hope the original posters of the video @AdvancedPlays gets to see this and find it to be of value.
Always remember there are no certainties in the markets, only probabilities
Waves
Conservative Investment Trend Trade HD LongMonthly Trend Trade
" + long impulse
+ 1/2 correction"
Daily Conservative Trend trade
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
+ ICE level
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp"
Calculated affordable virtual stop loss
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Broker set up:
May-20-2024
Buy HD at Market (Day)
May-20-2024
OCO 3A: Sell HD Stop at $332.37 Limit at $337.86 (Good 'til Canceled)
May-20-2024
OCO 3B: Sell HD Limit at $348.84 (Good 'til Canceled)
Alikze »» WAVES | Ready to retest the necklineIn the daily time, the long-term survey indicated that it is in wave 3 or C. that wave C had the ability to return to 100% of its previous wave, after which it entered the corrective phase.
💎But at the moment, due to the fact that it has faced demand in the green box in the 8H time, it will have the ability to retest up to the neck line area and supply.
💎 In the future, if it can break the supply area, the process will be reversed, and I will update it if the behavior and structure change.
💎 Alternative scenario: If the green box is broken, the correction can continue up to the $1.95 range.
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Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area 2404.446.Dear colleagues, the markup turned out to be rather unusual, but I still assume that the price is headed for a correction in wave “4” (2328.823). This may mean that the price will soon start an upward movement at least to the area of the nearest resistance at 2404.446.
After confirmation of this movement we will consider options for further upward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BTC simple analysis: box retestChart finished a bearish Elliot Wave and now can u-turn. Since it didn't complete full volume correction, it can go directly to 338% of E.W. fibonacci.
Fibonacci is between 2 and 4 of E.W.
The boxes are from an hour that was five times repited from a previous HH (or LL).
Retest can finish without hitting the box.
Sidenote: I have two boxes and don't know which on chart will go, but it will still go up so there shouldn't be any problem.
Looming AI Power Stock?
NASDAQ:MRVL The Chip Designer Company is a must watch stock especially this week with the upcoming earnings report.
This is my strategy:
Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see a consistent trade volume and slight increase in volatility as the price drops below the SMA and nears the lower band. The price is currently $76.68. We can expect it to reach a price target of $77.75 (test strategy here) for uptrend confirmation.
USDRUB.P Long Aggressive DayTradeMonthly context
"+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ support
- above 1/2 correction
+ volumed 2Sp
+ weak test"
Daily context:
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
Hourly context
"- short impulse
+ biggest volume T1 level
+ support level
+ volumed 2Sp"
5M set up
- short impulse
+ volumed T1 level
+ support level
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable virtual stop loss
1 to 2 take profit
BTC simple analysis: box retestChart finished a bearish Elliot Wave and now can u-turn. Since it didn't complete full volume correction, it can go directly to 338% of E.W. fibonacci.
Fibonacci is between 2 and 4 of E.W.
The boxes are from an hour that was five times repited from a previous HH (or LL).
Retest can finish without hitting the box.
Sidenote: I have two boxes and don't know which on chart will go, but it will still go up so there shouldn't be any problem.
LINK/USDT Weekly Analysis - Potential W3 target @ $34 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TL;DR Amazing weekly close last week, break above 200VWMA, potential W3 target @ $34
BINANCE:LINKUSDT just had an amazing week last week (+23%), with 50VWMA acting as support and a break above the 200VWMA.
If $12 was a local bottom, we could expect a W3 to the $34 area (1.618 fib of the last leg up). A HH above $23 would be a great confirmation.
Should Elliot Waves keep playing out, we could expect a W3 retracement to the $23 - $25 area, followed by a W5 to the $40 - $50 area. Take this with a grain of salt as it's still very early and we will need confirmations. 🧂
The Weekly RSI just got back above 50, leaving plenty of room for moves to the upside.
BTC simple analysis: Wave reversalChart made a simple u−turn toward a midle low peak of a HH peak.
Big waves (w−z) still ongoing. Even so, I'll start selling now to take the first bearish wave.
Fibonacci is on a LL and midle HH. This is a strong fibonacci support if chart bounce on the 100% level once so then it reaches 288% or even 461%. I'm using it for reversal prediction.
STLA 1H Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed T1 level
+ volumed Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable real stop loss
1 to 2 TP before volume zone
Context on Daily:
"- short impulse
+ monthly support level
+ 1/2 correction monthly
+ biggest volume T1
+ biggest volume Sp"
Context on Monthly
"+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ 1/2 correction?
+ support level"
WAVESUSD 1WWAVES ~ 1W
#WAVES It is interesting to start making purchases gradually from this. we're targeting at least a 20%+ upside from here.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5282.3. Dear colleagues, I assume that the upward movement in the senior wave “3” will continue, but after a small correction, presumably to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5117.0 . Then I assume the continuation of the upward movement to the resistance area 5282.3.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | GOLD (4H): Long to resistance area of 2358.71.Dear Colleagues, I suppose that the wave "4" of the higher order is completing its movement. I expect a possible update of the minimum and reaching the area of 2281.89 or the beginning of the upward movement to the resistance area of 2358.71.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to the resistance area 39156.49.Dear Colleagues, I suppose that the price has started the wave "5" of the higher order. At the moment I expect a correction in wave "2" of lower order, then I expect the beginning of wave "3" with the aim to reach the resistance area 39156.49.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BTCUSD to 90KINDEX:BTCUSD Will likely top out @ ~90K
Bearish cycle (12345) wedge was broken (A) and tested (B) with (ABC) correction to 0.5
Consolidation (WXY) around 0.618 of the bearish cycle
Breaking of the intermediary wedge and 0.5 of the bearish formation on (1) first impulse
Bottom of the bullish wedge touched (1) end
Testing of the intermediary wedge after breakout (2)
Breaking into the bullish wedge (3)
Bounce on 0.764 (4)
Limit testing upper side of the bullish wedge around 90K
(ABC) correction around 0.764 of the whole (12345) likely
Limit testing Lower side of the bullish wedge around 55K 0.618 of the (12345)
✌️
📍Part #1, Elliott Waves: "Introduction. Classification".Hello!
Dear colleagues, because I am constantly analyzing the markets with the help of wave analysis. Many colleagues ask me about it and I decided to make some tutorial posts to help you in this difficult task.
I want to present this information to you in a simple and straightforward manner.
Well, enough unnecessary text, let's get started!
A bit of history from Wikipedia.
Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948), an American accountant, developed a model for the underlying social principles of financial markets by studying their price movements, and developed a set of analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves.
Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable."
In simple words, human behavior is quite predictable. And since it is mostly people who trade on the markets, we can predict its movement with some probability.
Well. Let's explore what these waves are.
Let's start by categorizing them.
The movements are mostly carried out by a five-wave structure.
📍 Modes: Motive & Corrective
Waves unfold in two distinct forms: motive and corrective. Motive waves exhibit a five-wave structure, featuring both a five-wave model and its co-directional components—waves 1, 3, and 5. The term "motive" is attributed to this structure due to its inherent ability to energize and set the market in motion. On the other hand, corrective waves, prevalent in countertrend movements, follow a three-wave structure or its variations. The name "corrective" stems from their nature as responses to preceding motive waves, executing partial retracements or "corrections" of the prior progress. Hence, these two wave types stand apart not only in their roles but also in their fundamental construction.
Motive
📍 Styles: Impulse & Diagonal.
There are two types of motive waves: impulse and diagonal. As a rule, they alternate in the position of waves 1-5 impulses and waves A-C of the zigzag.
📍 Patterns: Impulse, Leading Diagonal & Ending Diagonal
Five-wave action model. Creates forward progress.Motive waves are limited to three patterns: Impulse, Leading and Ending Diagonals.
Corrective
📍 Groups: Simple & Combined
The corrective mode has two groups, simple and combined. Combined corrections are subdivided into simple corrective structures.
The group of simple corrections includes: flat, triangle and single zigzag. Combined group — multiple zigzag and combination.
📍 Styles: Sharp & Sideways
There are two styles of corrective processes: sharp and sideways. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa.
📍 Patterns: Flat, Triangle, Single Zigzag, Multiple Zigzag and Combination 📍
Three-wave or five-wave (which have characteristics of both fives and threes) or their combination model of counteraction. Always produces a net retracement from the previous wave.
Corrective patterns include: single and multiple zigzags, triangle, flat, combination.
Variations
📍Divergences in Elliott Wave patterns manifest in two conditional categories: variations in form and variations in the quantity of simple structures. Impulses, diagonals, flats, triangles, and single zigzags are distinguished by the proportional length of their sub-waves, shaping the model uniquely. On the other hand, combined corrections, incorporating multiple zigzags and combinations, maintain a consistent shape, and their identification is based on the count of simple corrective structures they encompass.
This was an introductory lesson on Elliott waves. Further we will examine each type and subspecies of waves in detail in a separate lesson!
🔔 Click on the links below this lesson! 🔔
📍Part # 8, Combination - Corrective Waves.👩🏻💻 Hello !
This time we're going to look at combinations.
It may seem too complicated, but don't worry. In fact, any combination simply consists of two corrective patterns that you and I already know, only between these two patterns there is a connecting wave.
Let's go straight to the rules and everything will become clear to you at once!
✅ Rules ✅
📍A “double three” combination comprises two corrective patterns separated by one corrective pattern in the opposite direction, labeled 'X'. The first corrective pattern is labeled 'W', the second 'Y'.
📍A "double three" combination comprises (in order) a zigzag and a flat, a flat and a zigzag, a flat and a flat, a zigzag and a triangle or a flat and a triangle.
📍Wave 'X' appears as a zigzag or flat.
📍Wave 'X' always retraces at least 90 percent of wave 'W'.
📍Combinations have a sideways look. With respect to waves 'W' and 'Y' in a double three, only one of those waves in each type of combination appears as a single zigzag.
📍Combinations can occur in the same wave positions as flats and triangles (except for the triangle subwave) but cannot occur in waves 'W' and 'Y'.
✅ Guidelines ✅
📍Wave 'X' is often 123.6-138.2% the 'W' wavelength, less often wave 'X' retraces 161.8% or more. Don't expect wave 'X' to be more than 261.8% of wave 'W'.
📍Wave 'X' is usually a single or multiple zigzag.
📍When a zigzag or flat appears too small to be the entire wave with respect to the preceding wave (or, if it is to be wave '4', the preceding wave '2'), a combination is likely.
Thank you for your attention! There will be another lecture next week! Don't miss it!
🔔 Links to other lessons in related ideas. 🔔
WAVES/USDT is Ready For a Breakout From Descending Channel 👀🚀💎Paradisers, We are seeing that #WAVES is in an intense accumulation phase and building up for a breakout from its descending channel.
💎Once it breaks out, we'll look for a retest for confirmation before planning our trade. The retest often follows a breakout and provides us a prime opportunity to validate the bullish momentum. If #Waves maintains support at $2.36 and continues its upward trajectory, the next target lies in the resistance zone within our projected range.
💎However, if #WAVESUSDT struggles to uphold support and falls below this zone, it might signal a weakening of the bullish trend. In that case, the price could further drop to the next significant support level, around $2.089.
💎Historically, PSX:WAVES has shown resilience by decisively rebounding from this support level. If this support holds, we might see a strong bounce. A firm close below this key support could challenge the bullish outlook, potentially signaling a more bearish trend.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success
WAVES/USDT ready for potential move? 👀🚀waves Analysis💎 Paradisers, get ready for a promising opportunity with #WAVESUSDT as it positions itself within a demand zone, gearing up for a potential bullish move.
💎 Historically, we've observed #WAVES adhering nicely to a pattern of descending resistance. Currently, after rebounding from a potential bottom, the price is maintaining momentum within the demand zone. If it can sustain this momentum at the demand level of $2.358, there's a strong chance it could break through the descending resistance and initiate a bullish movement.
💎 Consider this alternate scenario: if PSX:WAVES struggles to maintain its momentum at the demand level, a bullish rebound from the double bottom area or key support might be expected. However, should #WAVES fail to find support at this level and instead break below, it may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Overcoming the descending resistance is crucial for #WAVES to sustain its bullish trajectory.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴