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WAR

Daily pinbar candle. Fundamental still bullish?!Hi guys. Last week was again a week full off strong bullish momentum. Even the big resistance levels couldn't stop the massive bullrun. The market is overal more moving on fundamentals then technicals. The war going on is making the precious metal in big demand. I adviced traders to be carefull with selling the market. Intraday/swingtraders having a hard time shorting the market atm. If we look at the friday daily closing. We can see a big pinbar. 1983-1985 is big resistance level. It broke in lower timeframe(up to 1997)but created a fakeout in higher timeframe. We tried buying gold after the break and retest. But H4 did not mange to close above the resistance zone. THe pinbar candle indicates a posible stop to the bullrun. But keep in mind the market is mostly running on fundamentals. So in my opinion gold will fall from the resistance level towards posible 1972, 1953 or as low as 1930 before the bull run starts again. Gold is also moving between a channel. So it is posible for gold to follow the channel upwards. Resistance: 1985, 2009, 2025, 2065 Support: 1972, 1953,1930
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexGoldIntraday
XAUUSD 22/10/23XU showing us the results of major fundamental events as tensions rise the price of gold is sure to follow, as one of the safest assets to own even in 2023 gold is worth its weight! (unlike the USD) heading into this week iam looking for a low run into another new high from this very favourable asset. longs are for sure but a small rebalance is in order so will be looking out for this to come at some stage. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipSurfingSociety
Has LMT Reached The End? | War | Historic Analysis Disclaimer: I am in no way condoning violence, nor support either side of any conflict. This will be an analysis of NYSE:LMT alone. With that being said let's dive in. Introduction We all heard the breaking news, as of October 7th, 2023 Israel and Palestine are officially at war with each other creating tension around the globe. Now I know you probably wondering, how it affects our economics on the Western front, specifically the stock market. What can we expect in the future, and of course can you turn a profit from all this? Toady, we'll dive deep into what stocks to pay attention to and how involved NYSE:LMT , AMEX:DFEN , and NYSE:RTX really are. So strap on your seat belts as we talk about the M word. No not morals, Money. The Big Bois Without a doubt the largest companies in the US for military exports are NYSE:LMT , NYSE:RTX , and $NYSE:GD. The largest consumers of these military goods are Korea, Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. I will leave the AMEX:DFEN ETF here which holds most of the companies I've mentioned and then some. We want to look at these companies when we hear conflict. With that being said let's head over to some charts. *For a more in-depth analysis of military manufacturers, I suggest researching what companies are good for and what they supply, but at the end of the day, they all complement each other, which is why you really can't go wrong with $AMEX:DFEN. If it really matters it's just a Google search away. 1D NYSE:LMT Percentage Increase Zones: I labeled these zones so we can get a clear view of the effects of war/conflict. This is the type of capitalization you can get from these scenarios, and we are seeing similar percentages to the ones from the Russian-Ukraine conflict. I believe the highest this can climb would be the all-time high, which just so happens to reach a perfect 29%, so something to be looking at. Possible Rejection Levels: These are levels that can play as a resistance/retrace before a rejection to the downside. Possible Support Levels: These are the levels that can play as a support/reversal to the upside. Moving Average: 200 MA could play as a resistance and we could have reached the end of this first swing before we fell back down the the previous low. MACD: MACD Showing signs of a bearish divergence perhaps, keep a sharp eye on that. 1W NYSE:LMT Elliot Waves: I debated whether or not wanted to mark this as a complete Elliot Wave or not (12345) then (ABC). To each their own, this is expected when we talk about something as subjective as Elliot Waves. FIB: The Fib is used to show possible retracement levels, which I labeled out in the "possible rejection zone" if this stock were to go lower. Moving Average: 200 MA played as a perfect pillow, now we just see if it can stay that way. Relative Strength Index: In each "war" zone I have shown the amount of buying pressure we usually see during these conflicts, but it seems we have no pressure, nor any indication that this will be bullish. In fact, we were oversold not too long ago. Stoch RSI: Same with the Stock RSI we are in the (ABC) faze of the indicator. Summary Overall, we are seeing more downward pressure than any bullish indications, I believe we need to get through the bears first before this stock skyrockets. Another factor is that war must be prominent, something we really shouldn't be rooting for. Bonus NYSE:RTX and AMEX:DFEN Please Please Please, like and follow the post if you found this helpful! It helps the algorithm and me to reach more people, don't be afraid to comment with your thoughts down below!
NYSE:LMTShort
by DenzelitoTrades
Gold - was, is and will always be our Safe Haven!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on Daily: Left Chart After rejecting the 1800.0 support, Gold has been bullish especially after breaking above 1900.0. Currently, XAUUSD is sitting around a strong resistance in green. For the bulls to remain in control, we need a break above 1960.0. 📈 In this case, a movement till the 2000.0 round number would be expected. on H1: Right Chart Meanwhile, the bears can still kick in. To be confirmed if the last low in gray at 1934.0 is broken downward around. 📉 In this case, we will be expecting a correction till the 1900.0 support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
3
💎 $GOLD : Correction to $1903 ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart in the daily time frame, we can see that based on our analysis, on Friday with the announcement of the NFP, the price attacked the level of $1810 to collect liquidity, and then it was accompanied by demand pressure (As we mentioned in the previous analysis, the price was in a demand range for several days) and with the war between Israel and Palestine, the market found its own excuse for further growth, And today, until this moment, it has managed to grow up to $1856 and hit its first upward target! As I said in the previous analysis, for the price to grow, gold must stabilize and close above $1830, which is exactly what happened on Friday! The important demand zone is from $1812 to $1829 and the important supply zones are $1858, $1880 to $1889, and finally $1903! Best Regards , Arman Shaban The Last and The Main TA : (Click on the picture to see more)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
87
#Oil buying opportunityHello dear traders and friends, I hope you are all having a great week. Let's take a look at Crude Oil prices, where it appears that the price has formed a support level around $80 to $82 after a 14% bearish move since the top formed in late September. In the 4-hour timeframe, we can observe that the price has already shifted its bearish market structure to the upside by forming a new high. What's particularly noteworthy is that this high was formed from a higher low, indicating that sellers were unable to push prices any lower despite the prevailing bearish trend. In the daily timeframe, things become even more interesting as the price has formed a significant bullish engulfing candle that has covered the last four daily candles. This suggests a high potential for upward movement. Additionally, in the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is near a static support area, as indicated on the chart, and coincides with the daily central pivot area. This further supports the possibility of this area acting as a price low. Apart from the technical aspects, we are also aware of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. The potential escalation of conflict and involvement of other countries can have a positive impact on oil prices. Please also take a look at my other posted ideas which I'm sure you are going to like it and share your thoughts and feedback with me. Thank you.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDELong
by mohemati
$UVXY $120+ BUY CALLSUVXY is a volatility factor in the market. As political tensions rise high in the world, we are due for another market correction and overall world market corrections. USA of course is protecting its interest in the Middle East and as we can see, Israel-Palestine conflict is only getting started. This is a multi-decade war between Israel and Arab/Muslim states. However, this war is not going to be similar to previous, this will be final and deciding war in that region, after which, nothing will be left there and geographical borders will change. This is a political game because of all the resources hidden, particularly Oil, in the Middle East. I believe this time we will see a use of nuclear weapons. There will be de-stabilization in that region and rest of the world. UVXY will spike due to this. I'm not sure about my timing, but I see these tensions rising very high and markets staying volatile within near future. Please check out my other predictions as they are fairly accurate, I don't post a lot, but I think this time I might be right.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by toich312
1
Gold BUY Tensions RiseDear Ziilllaatrades, We'd like to discuss a potential chain of events where an invasion of Israel into Palestine could trigger Iran's involvement in the conflict, causing a rise in gold prices. Here's how this chain of events might unfold: 1. Invasion of Israel into Palestine: If Israel were to launch a large-scale military invasion into Palestinian territories, it would likely draw significant international attention and condemnation. This action would intensify tensions in the region and lead to a surge in violence, displacement of civilians, and potential casualties. 2. Iran's Involvement: Iran has been a long-standing supporter of Palestinian causes, particularly through its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. If Israel's actions are perceived as a significant threat to Palestinian territories and civilians, Iran may feel compelled to intervene in the conflict to protect its interests and regional influence. Iran could provide financial, military, and logistical support to Palestinian factions, escalating the conflict and potentially involving Iranian military forces. 3. Escalation of Regional Tensions: The involvement of Iran in the conflict would escalate regional tensions and may lead to the activation of regional alliances and rivalries. Israel's allies, including the United States, may respond with increased military and diplomatic support. This could lead to a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries in the Middle East. 4. Market Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical instability and conflict in the Middle East tend to increase market uncertainty and risk aversion. Investors often turn to safe-haven assets like gold during times of geopolitical turmoil, as gold is traditionally seen as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability. The rising tensions in the Middle East, including the involvement of Iran, could lead to increased demand for gold, driving up its prices. 5. Impact on Gold Prices: As investors seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, increased demand could cause gold prices to rise. The extent of the price increase would depend on the severity of the conflict, the duration of the crisis, and the global response to the situation. Gold prices can also be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, currency movements, and supply and demand dynamics. It's important to note that this scenario is hypothetical, and the actual outcome of any such conflict and its impact on gold prices would depend on a wide range of complex and dynamic factors. Geopolitical events can indeed influence commodity prices, including gold, but predicting the extent of that impact is challenging. Feel free to ask any questions, Greetings, Ziilllaatrades
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
WTI/BRENT CORRECTION AHEADBrent futures rose by $4.89 (5.7%) to reach $90.89 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $4.78 (5.8%) to $87.69 per barrel, marking their most significant daily gains since April. Brent also saw a weekly rise of 7.5%, its largest since February, and WTI climbed 5.9% for the week. Despite the Middle East conflict, global oil and gas supplies remain relatively unaffected since Israel isn't a major producer. However, market observers are monitoring the situation for potential regional supply impacts. Residents in Gaza evacuated their homes after Israel ordered over a million people to leave the northern half of the territory within 24 hours, with Hamas advising against leaving. Iran's Oil Minister, Javad Owji, predicted oil prices reaching $100 per barrel due to the Middle East situation. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
1
Gold Analysis of War impact.Upon research, here is the fundemental reasoning for my gold entries. I have placed an order at 1853.5 I think gold has not given up with with the push down as of yet. And I feel asif theres further to go. As far as the Israel and Palistine war is going: USA seem to already putting there nose in, sending warships over etc. This is only fustrating Hamas. Theres no doubt Hamas will not win this, Israel has the backup of many countries including an ally of NATO although not officaly apart. Weve seen the spike of gold from massive reserves being sold off. Golds hovering around the 50-60 area. Whats interesting to me from reading, is that what Saudi have to say. We know Saudi are a very powerful, oil rich country with massive gold reserves too (323 ton they hold). If they get involved we may see alot of market movement. For the good or bad i can not comment. Watch gold closely, probably better to look at trades before news is announced. But as this is war, and news is news, we cant predict. Just to put in perspective, Saudi have more gold than Bolivia, Finland, Cambodia, Belarus, UAE and Argentina together. But are still only at 16 in the world for holdings. If we look at Saudis oil reserves, they are No2 in the world. They’ve got 65.4 years of oil reserves stored, And produce a whopping 10.85 million barrels per day. That’s est. 1,725,150,000L per day. Crazy figures. Ill update this post with daily and weekly thoughts. In summary, I feel the war unfortunatley has further to go. This is only the start. Could this pump or dump gold? ... Time will tell Ethan
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by xEthan
Storms are Brewing: Is your Portfolio Weatherproof? Risk strikes when least expected. Optimism peaks before a downturn strikes. Chart below shows remarkable spike in articles mentioning soft-landing before recession hits. Human brain is engineered to think linearly. Anything non-linear tricks the mind. Recession is non-linear which muddles up investor estimates of recession, its timing and impact. Count of Soft-landing Articles & US Recession (Source: Bloomberg ) The US Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation has lifted rates by an unprecedented 525 basis points since the start of 2022. Yet the American economy, US corporations, and the US consumer are remarkably resilient. Non-Farm Payrolls last week came strong. When the Fed is tightening its levers to slow the economy, nothing seems to stop its rise. What explains this anomaly? Three words. Monetary Policy Transmission. Monetary policy transmission takes time, lulling many to believe that consumers and corporates are resilient. When in fact, they are yet to face the consequence of constrained credit markets which will manifest itself in myriad ways from reduced availability of financing, high cost of funding, and rising bankruptcies, just to name a few. This paper is set in two parts. First part describes monetary policy transmission. Part two dives into storms forming in the horizon. The paper concludes with a hypothetical trade set-up using CME Micro S&P 500 Options to defend portfolios from deepening polycrisis. Despite the risk narratives, a soft landing may still be possible. However, the combined impact of Fed’s hawkish stance, rising geopolitical tensions, continuing auto workers strike, tightening of financial conditions, and elevated oil prices & yields renders the likelihood of a soft landing, super slim. Narratives around the soft-landing aside, CTAs have dumped nearly USD 40 billion worth of S&P 500 futures positions marking the fastest unwind on record over the last two weeks as reported by Goldman Sachs. PART 1: MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION Monetary policy operates with long and unpredictable lags. Monetary Policy Transmission is the process through which a Central Bank’s decisions impact the economy and the price levels. The flow chart below schematically describes the downstream impact of quantitative tightening. Monetary Policy Transmission Takes Time (Source: ECB ) Changes made to official interest rates affect markets in diverse ways and at distinct stages. Central bank's interest rate decisions impact the markets in the following seven ways: 1. Banks and Money Markets: Rate changes directly affect money-market rates and, indirectly, lending and deposit rates. 2. Expectations: Expectations of future rate changes influence medium and long-term interest rates. Monetary policy guides expectations of future inflation. 3. Asset Prices: Financing conditions and market expectations triggered by monetary policy cause adjustments in asset prices and the FX rates. 4. Savings & investment decisions : Rate changes affect saving and investment decisions of households and firms. 5. Credit Supply: Higher rates increase the risk of borrower default. Banks scale back on lending to households and firms. This may also reduce consumption and investment. 6. Aggregate demand & prices: Changes in consumption and investment will change the level of domestic demand for goods and services relative to domestic supply. 7. Supply of bank loans: Changes in policy rates affect banks’ marginal cost for obtaining external finance differently, depending on the level of a bank’s own resources/capital. The mechanism is characterized by long, variable, and indefinite time lags. As a result, it is difficult to predict the precise timing of monetary policy actions on economy and inflation. For some sectors, monetary policy transmission can take as long as 18 to 24 months. In other words, the full force of the Fed’s 525 basis points spike since 2022 will not be felt until early 2024. Added to that, the Fed may not be done hiking yet. Probabilities of Rate Anticipation in Prospective Fed Meetings (Source: CME FedWatch Tool ) PART 2: STORMS ARE FORMING Not one but three major storms are brewing in parallel, namely (1) Worsening Geo-politics, (2) US Sovereign Risk Fears, and (3) Tightening Financial Conditions. One or more of them could unleash havoc, sending financial markets into a tailspin. 1. WORSENING GEO-POLITICS Adding to the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend has elevated geo-political tensions. If counter strikes escalate to a wider region impacting Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices could spiral up sharply, sending shocks across financial markets. Oil prices lost steam last week. That doesn’t guarantee lower prices. Eerily, this month marks 50-year anniversary of oil emergency in 1973 which led to oil prices spiking 3x back then. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at a 40-year low. The reserves are at 17-days of consumption compared to an average of 34-days consumption observed over the last thirty years. 2. US SOVEREIGN RISK FEARS: The US government is facing multiple challenges of its own. The government narrowly avoided a shutdown and has kicked the problem can down the road only by six weeks. Long before investors take relief, the shutdown fear will resurface again. Add to that is the rising US debt levels. With a debt burden of USD 33 trillion, the government debt is forecasted to reach USD 52 trillion by 2033. With rates remaining elevated, a substantial chunk of US Government debt will be directed towards interest payments. Is there a risk of US debt default? To compensate for that risk, bond yields are climbing. The 10-Year treasury yields rose to 16-year high of 4.6%. With jobs market remaining solid, the data-driven Fed might have to keep the rates higher for longer. The futures market implies a probability of 42% for a rate hike during the Fed’s December meeting. Any further hikes can tip the recovering housing market back into crisis due to exorbitant mortgage rates. High yields also cost it dearly for firms to borrow. 3. TIGHTENING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: Dwindling liquid assets, resumption of student loan repayments, stringent lending practices atop heavy debt burden on US Corporates are collectively weighing down on investor sentiments. Student Loan Repayments: After 3.5 years of loan servicing holidays, millions of students will resume student loan repayments. Bloomberg estimates that these repayments can shave 0.2% to 0.3% off US GDP. Depleted Savings: Strength of the US Consumers will be put to stress tests. Extra savings from pandemic stimulus checks have been depleted to below pre-pandemic levels for low-income categories. Consumer strength could turn into weakness in the coming weeks. Inflation Adjusted Liquid Asset Holdings by Income Group (Source: US Fed and Bloomberg Calculations ) Stringent Lending Standards: The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices points to 50% of the banks imposing stringent criteria for commercial & industrial loans. Lending conditions are at levels last seen during 2008 global financial crisis. Impact of this will be felt in Q4 when business will be stifled from access to funds. Tightening Standards of Commercial & Industrial Loans (Source: July 2023 SLOOS Survey ) Corporate Debt Burden: Years of extremely low cost of funding have tempted US corporates into a debt binge. With rates rising, the debt burden is getting heavier on corporate balance sheets, cash flows, and profitability as reported by Bloomberg. Leverage ratios are rising. Interest coverage ratios are falling. Average Free Cash Flow to Debt ratios are plunging. Debt burden amid rising rate environment is hurting US Blue Chips (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Against the backdrop of these risks, this paper posits a hypothetical back spread with puts to gain from sharp index moves. Unlike a long straddle, this option strategy delivers (a) outsized gains when markets plunge, and (b) limited downside risk if market remains flat or rises despite the risks. This strategy involves selling one unit of at-the-money puts to finance purchase of two units of out-of-the-money puts. This strategy can be executed either for net positive premium or net negative premium depending on the choice of strikes. Specifically, the hypothetical trade illustration is built around CME Micro Monthly S&P 500 Options expiring on 29th December 2023 (EXZ3). The strategy involves (a) selling 1 lot of EXZ3 at a strike of 4400 collecting a premium of USD 655 (131.16 index points x 1 lot x USD 5/index point), and (b) buying 2 lots of EXZ3 at a strike of 4300 paying a premium of USD 950 (95.041 index points x 2 lots x USD 5/index point). The hypothetical trade involves a net debit of USD 295 (58.922 index points * USD 5/index point). This trade breaks even when S&P 500 (a) falls below 4141, or (b) rises above 4400. Pay-off from Back Spread with Puts Trade Strategy (Source: CME QuikStrike ) Summary pay-off from this trading strategy is illustrated in the table below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by mintdotfinance
18