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WAR

Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
TVC:US10Y
by The_Arena_Trader
11
Gold - Getting Ready for the Next Impulse!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 XAUUSD has been overall bullish, trading within the flat rising channel in blue. Currently, XAUUSD is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel. Moreover, it is retesting strong demand zone marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #Gold approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
2
$TSLA Might be About to Make a Big MoveTSLA has been compressing into a multi-year squeeze on the charts. Whether it's the global economy going into a rough patch, the uncertainty of the 2024 US presidential election, or multiple wars happening in the East there seem to be a lot of potential market forces possibly pushing high multiple stocks down for the near future. But Tesla as a company is on track for 50% YoY growth, completely dominating the global EV market while traditional OEMs pull back their EV efforts, Chinese OEMs struggle with margins, and other pure EV companies struggle to turn a profit at all. Personally, I think TSLA will have a rough winter as the market hedges their bets on a market level, after which it will be primed for a huge upward breakthrough once the dust settles on the other side.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by rhaphazard
XAUUSD - 1H Continuation of FallStops and liquidity have been hunted above the resistance zone, suggesting that gold (XAUUSD) can continue its downward trajectory towards the $2315 level. The chart shows a bullish trendline, and a break below this trendline will serve as a confirmation for initiating sell positions. This break would indicate a shift in market sentiment, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Traders should watch for this trendline crossing as a key signal for entering short trades, targeting the identified support level at $2315. Additionally, the previous three bullish legs used the $2310 zone as the base, adding further significance to this support area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Sober_Trading
Gold prices drift lower on hawkish Fed minutesKey Points: An analyst predicts gold could drift back to $2,355 if the dollar continues to strengthen. The Federal Reserve minutes revealed discussions about potential further interest rate hikes. Gold prices declined for the third consecutive session on Thursday following the release of the Fed's minutes, which showed some officials favored raising rates. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,370.74 per ounce as of 0335 GMT, after a drop of over 1% in the previous session. On Monday, bullion reached a record high of $2,449.89. U.S. gold futures decreased by 0.8% to $2,373.00.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by DynamicCapital-FX
OIL - Getting Slippery?🩸Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 After breaking below the last major low marked in red at $84.5, OIL has been overall bearish , trading within the rising channel in blue. 📈 For the bulls to regain control, a break above the last major high marked in blue is needed. 📚 Meanwhile, OIL would be bearish and can still trade lower to test the $75 - $76.25 support zone. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:USOIL
by TheSignalyst
5
Why Bitcoin's Halving Won't Save You if the Economy Goes Down As we navigate through an increasingly volatile economic landscape, similarities between the current market behavior and the period preceding the COVID-19 market crash have begun to surface, particularly concerning Bitcoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD ). This analysis delves into these parallels and discusses why the upcoming Bitcoin halving might not be the safety net investors hope for if a major economic downturn occurs. Historical Insights: The 2020 Pre-Halving Crash Back in early 2020, just before Bitcoin's much-anticipated halving, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its most drastic crashes. Bitcoin's value plummeted by 41% in a single day, underscoring the rapid sentiment shift among investors from greed to fear. Notably, our Trend Model had signaled an exit from the market two weeks prior to this crash, prompted not by foreknowledge of the pandemic but by bearish behaviour on Bitcoin. At the time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was at a mere 39 out of 100, highlighting a market driven by fear— suggesting an oversold market. Current Market Conditions and Sentiment Fast forward to today, the echoes of the past resonate as the same indices and models show similar ominous signs. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the risk of major conflicts looming, our Trend Model recently signalled another exit. Interestingly, the current market sentiment, with a Fear and Greed Index score of 72, indicates a stark contrast: traders remain optimistic despite the negative price trends—a risky disconnect that could precede significant market corrections. Major market influencers continue to advocate bullish perspectives, with some viewing market dips as buying opportunities and others speculating about market manipulations linked to new ETF launches in Hong Kong. The general consensus among these influencers is that the impending halving will bolster Bitcoin prices. However, a closer look at historical data and market behavior suggests otherwise. The Halving: A Misunderstood Phenomenon The halving certainly impacts Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, theoretically increasing scarcity. However, the effect is neither immediate nor strong enough to counteract significant market downturns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices didn’t soar; instead, they entered a prolonged period of stagnation lasting 72 days. This historical precedent illustrates that halving does not inherently create upward price pressure but rather contributes to a slow, often muted, impact on the market. Technical Analysis and Future Predictions Applying Fibonacci Retracement to the current weekly Bitcoin charts suggests potential price corrections with levels possibly dipping between $38,000 and $45,000. Further analysis through the Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model indicates that Bitcoin is currently overbought. A retracement to $45,000 would align with this model’s estimation of Bitcoin's fair value. Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with Data While the hope for a market recovery persists, relying on the halving to safeguard Bitcoin investments in a turbulent economy is misguided. Our historical data and trend analysis underline the importance of cautious and informed trading strategies. Just as our model successfully predicted exits before major market crashes, including the COVID-19 downturn, Luna crash, and FTX collapse, it continues to guide us through these uncertain times. Investors would do well to remember that external factors such as geopolitical developments or economic crises can dwarf the effects of the halving, leading to sharp price declines. In this context, understanding and respecting the data’s warning signs is crucial for navigating the markets effectively, ensuring that decisions are based on insight rather than optimism.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlgoAlpha
4
Technical Analysis of RTX (Raytheon Technologies) Weekly ChartSubscribe & Follow For: ➞ Quick Chart Summary Breakdown ➞ Pertinent Supply Demand Zones and Considerations ➞ US Stocks / Crypto Only ➞ Before / After Analysis 🙏 Like & Subscribe 💬 Drop a line and let me know what you think 🍯 Coin donations always appreciated 🚀 Boost this post to share value NYSE:RTX is currently exhibiting a double megaphone pattern on the weekly chart, indicating a period of increased volatility and potential uncertainty in the market sentiment. This pattern typically suggests conflicting forces at play, with widening price swings signaling indecision among traders. Key Pattern: Double Megaphone A megaphone pattern, also known as a broadening formation, consists of two expanding trendlines that diverge away from each other. This pattern reflects growing volatility and uncertainty, with higher highs and lower lows being established over time. In this scenario with RTX we are showing two long term trends one inside of another. Explanation: Textbook Answer: This double megaphone pattern often signifies a struggle between bulls and bears, with neither side gaining a clear advantage. It also represents volatility & opportunity. It's up to us to determine price point where we can capitalize on positioning for profitability! Real World Answer: Manipulation & Perfect Timing As the price oscillates between the expanding trendlines, traders should exercise caution and closely monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities. I got a feeling this one is going to be a mover! RSI Breakout with Hidden Divergence: In addition to the double megaphone pattern, RTX is exhibiting a notable breakout on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with hidden bullish divergence and the highs are currently compromised with clear and visible hidden bearish divergence leading me to believe that we will revisit the 5th swing level (or in the vicinity of) one more time and see how well prices hold. Current Situation: At present, NYSE:RTX is approaching a critical juncture within the double megaphone pattern. Traders must evaluate whether the price will push through the upper trendline or revisit the lower trendline, known as the 5th swing in Elliott Wave Theory. Potential Scenarios: Managing Breakout: If RTX manages to break above the upper trendline of the double megaphone pattern, it could signal a bullish continuation, with the potential for further upside momentum. Traders may consider initiating long positions with appropriate risk management strategies in place. Revisit of 5th Swing (Lower Trendline) Conversely, if RTX fails to sustain upward momentum and revisits the lower trendline, it could indicate a bearish reversal or consolidation phase. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and monitor key support levels for potential downside targets. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Upper trendline of both of the megaphone patterns. Support: Lower trendline (5th swing) and previous swing lows within the pattern. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of a double megaphone pattern on the RTX weekly chart suggests heightened volatility and uncertainty in the market. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on the price action relative to the pattern's trendlines. Granted the series of unfortunate events occurring on the global stage I could almost anticipate what is going to happen here in the long term As always, it's essential to incorporate risk management techniques and exercise caution when navigating such volatile market conditions. Note: Ensure to identify your price levels accordingly. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:RTXLong
by the_technical_trapper
⭐️ XAU/USD - $GOLD is going to fall again ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the gold chart in the 1-hour time frame, we can see that according to the latest analysis, the price was able to fall from the level of $2393 to $2369 and bring us more than 230 pips of profit! After that, the price was fluctuating in the same range. This morning, with the announcement of Israel's attack on Iran, gold was accompanied by a strong growth and increased to $2417, and after the regional tensions subsided, gold began to fall again. and it is currently trading in the range of $2373! If the price can stabilize below 2379$, we can expect more fall from gold! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
64
⭐️ XAU/USD - WAR's effect on the $GOLD Price (IMPORTANT) Weekly Gold Market Analysis Upon examining the gold chart on a weekly basis, it was observed that last Friday marked a significant surge in gold prices. This increase was triggered by the announcement of a potential Iranian attack on Israel, propelling the price to $2431. Price Fluctuations and Corrections However, the ascent was short-lived, and the price underwent a sharp decline. In less than four hours, gold experienced a correction exceeding 1000 pips, eventually settling at $2344 by the market’s close. Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events The anticipated attack materialized on Sunday morning, leading to speculations of a price hike when the market reopened. As predicted, Monday saw gold’s value climb from $2344 to $2372. Despite this, the growth was modest, largely because the market had already factored in the news to a considerable degree on Thursday, resulting in diminished tensions. The Lingering Threat of Conflict Investors are advised to exercise caution as the specter of war continues to loom over the market. The coming days may witness escalating tensions, potentially driving gold prices higher. Technical Outlook and Price Projections It is crucial to monitor the $2404 threshold. Should the price fail to breach this level and instead retreat towards the $2200 channel, with the weekly candle closing within this range, there could be a further downturn in gold prices. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
Invasion of Kuwait 1991 vs. Iran 2024Buildup prior to the invasion was a steady week of lower prices in January, until 17 Jan 1991 when coalition forces took control of skies over Baghdad and destroyed Iraqi air and ground forces. Overlay is Jan 1991. 17 Jan was the night invasion. 18 Jan the market took a moon shot. Once it became apparent that our guys were winning, bulls took over and the rise after the event was double the decline. The buying spree the day after the night bombing of Baghdad was phenomenal... a moon rocket. Be real careful shorting now. Soon it will become apparent the nutjobs cannot win these conflicts. Relief rally may reach new ATH at 5360+ within a few weeks. Everyone wants puts, all are short, VIX is jumping... that's not a good time to get short. Bottom of this shakeout sometime this week imo.
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
3
Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks. Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices. Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks. Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Elite_Forex
📈Bitcoin: Geopolitical Tensions Impact Market Dynamics🚨🔍Today, we're focusing on Bitcoin, which has formed a range box in the 4-hour timeframe between 63054 and 73305. Following the uptrend from 40k, this consolidation phase is a logical pause, potentially leading to a correction in the weekly timeframe, especially considering the imminent Halving event, which may precede a bullish rally. ⚡️In range-bound markets, whales often execute buy or sell orders within these ranges. We shouldn't play into the hands of these whales; therefore, it's better to be patient and wait for a breakout above 73305 for a long position, or wait for the candle to close below 63054 for a short position. 📊The volume of red candles is significantly high, partly due to the sharp decline we witnessed last night following Iran's attack on Israeli soil, causing a 20-40% decline in most altcoins. However, Bitcoin found support at 63054, preventing further decline. 💥The RSI indicator dipped into oversold territory and bounced back, currently oscillating near the 30 mark. A move into oversold territory coupled with candlestick confirmation could trigger another sharp decline, potentially coinciding with news of further conflict between Iran and Israel. ⚡️The POC (Point of Control) in the fixed range volume profile was lost last night, with attention now focused on 63054. If this level is breached, Bitcoin could test the 52k range. 📝Finally, it's essential to note that at the onset of a conflict, markets initially experience a downturn as governments aim to increase liquidity. However, Bitcoin tends to appreciate afterward, as individuals in conflict-stricken countries seek to move their assets abroad, making Bitcoin the preferred choice. This could mark the beginning of the 2024 bull run. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
by itsparham96
A Speed Bump or a Sign of Things to Come?The recent dip in the crypto market, triggered by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, serves as a stark reminder of the market's volatility. Bitcoin prices plummeted to GETTEX:59K before a swift recovery, leaving many investors wondering: was this a blip on the radar or a harbinger of things to come? **The Iran-Israel Factor:** Geopolitical tensions have historically impacted traditional markets, and crypto appears increasingly susceptible as well. The news of a potential war undoubtedly spooked investors, leading to a sell-off. However, the market's swift bounce back suggests that the long-term outlook might remain bullish. **Bull Run on Hold?** The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for sometime in 2024, is a highly anticipated event that often precedes bull runs. While the recent crash might cause a temporary setback, historical data suggests that these halvings often lead to price increases due to a reduced supply of new Bitcoins. **Full-Fledged War? A Bearish Threat?** A full-blown war would undoubtedly have a significant negative impact on global markets, including crypto. Increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty could trigger a prolonged bear market. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust your strategy accordingly. **The Power of Diversification:** Regardless of the bull or bear market predictions, diversification remains a crucial strategy. Spreading your investments across various cryptocurrencies and asset classes can help mitigate risk. **The Final Word: It's All Speculation** The future of the crypto market, especially in light of geopolitical events, is inherently uncertain. While a bull run is still possible after the halving, external factors can always play a role. Here's where **you** come in! Join the discussion in the comments below!** Share your thoughts: * Do you think the recent crash is a sign of a larger correction? * How will a potential full-fledged war impact the crypto market? * What strategies are you using to navigate the current market climate? **By fostering a community of informed investors, we can all navigate the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.** **Disclaimer:** This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
by OMGiTzREALHASSAN
2
Why both Gold & U.S. Dollar Index are rising ? (IMPORTANT)The Intricate Dance of Gold and the U.S. Dollar The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Gold prices is a fascinating study in economics. Typically, these two have a reverse correlation. The reason for this inverse relationship is that gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for investors using other currencies. This can decrease demand for gold and subsequently lower its price. However, this correlation is not set in stone. There are times when both the DXY and gold prices can increase simultaneously. This can occur due to a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, or changes in monetary policy. For instance, from early 2022 to the beginning of 2024, the correlation between gold and the DXY has seen periods of both synchronicity and divergence. This indicates that other factors are influencing gold prices. Currently, despite the rising DXY, gold prices are also on an upward trend. This could be attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst economic or geopolitical uncertainty. This increases the demand for gold, driving up its price even as the dollar strengthens. Additionally, expectations of changes in monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, can also affect gold prices. In conclusion, while the DXY and gold prices often move in opposite directions, there are times when they dance to the same tune. This intricate dance is influenced by a myriad of factors, making the relationship between the DXY and gold prices a complex and intriguing aspect of global economics. Prepared by : Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
TSLA - Weekly Inflection PointDaily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for consolidating momentum. In turn I watch for breaks that releases the built up energy. Previous Analysis:
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Mikhiavelli
China - U.S. War Preparations!We are still at the start phase of the China - U.S. war & seeing it slowly brew into something bigger. 2025 - 2026 should be when we see a full out war, weather that's a physical war, economical war or a cyber war. Ahead of this war it'll be interesting to see how China prepares for sanctions from western nations; ⭕️Which financial asset classes they divert into. ⭕️Which industries they become reliant on. ⭕️Which countries they turn into allies.
TVC:DXYLong
by BA_Investments
🔥❤️GOLD TO 2370-2390🔥❤️❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold price continues to rise amid growing geopolitical tensions. Gold prices hit record highs above $2,350 even as rate cut bets ease. A rally in gold persisted even as technical indicators showed the yellow metal was squarely in overbought territory. 💲BUY / SELL SIGNAL UPDATES SHORTLY💲 Follow channel for regular updates Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE Gold price soars, supported by weakening US Dollar in face of high Treasury yields. XAU/USD was boosted by Fed Chair Powell hinting at rate cuts within the year, contingent on sustained inflation decline. Despite a strong job market as shown by ADP data, indications of a slowdown in services activity contribute to the precious metal's gains. ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by My_Forex_Team
🔥🔥GOLD TO 2330🔥🔥❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold price climbs steadily, eyeing Wednesday's $2,300 psychological figure amid high US Treasury bond yields and a soft US Dollar. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data, and a dip in services business activity weighed on the American currency. Therefore, the XAU/USD spot price is at $2,295, refreshing all-time highs and gaining more than 0.60%. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the US central bank has time to deliberate about rate cuts, given the strength of the economy and the inflation readings. He reiterated that if the economy evolves as expected, they will cut borrowing costs “at some point this year.” 💲BUY / SELL SIGNAL UPDATES SHORTLY💲 Follow channel for regular updates Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE Gold price soars, supported by weakening US Dollar in face of high Treasury yields. XAU/USD was boosted by Fed Chair Powell hinting at rate cuts within the year, contingent on sustained inflation decline. Despite a strong job market as shown by ADP data, indications of a slowdown in services activity contribute to the precious metal's gains. ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by My_Forex_Team