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THE BIG PICTURE: Health is everything! Man and Money vs Virus! I think this chart will be of interest, in overlooking the big picture. I say what I see and it is largely about a health timebomb approaching. So I deal with some technical and hidden fundamental issues. Always say what you see on the charts! Remember TA is about sentiment - until reality catches up. 1 - A popped bubble. 2 - A reinflated bubble. 3 - A reinflated bubble struggling to remain inflated. 4 - Total daily cases of COVID continuing north. 5 - Total daily cases is rising above the area of struggle in the DJI. Note that the DJI represents sentiment in the top 30 major organisations - so it is important. I entirely accept that because total daily cases is summative, it is not a sound measure of the impact of the virus on health or control of the virus. But think deeply - yes these are fundamental issues - representing ' reality '. The total number of people infected means that a percentage of them will suffer lasting effects of the virus e.g. central nervous system problems, mental health disorders, clotting disorders, lung problems, heart problems and exacerbations of previous illnesses. This means there is a mounting economic burden that isn't quite realised by leaders. Why is biotechnology and services servicing those industries flourishing? Obvious - isn't it. Healthcare directed at fighting COVID has left lots of people with significantly reduced care for non-covid related conditions. What happens to those people? It can be expected that their health will deteriorate. I can't go into a whole list of medical conditions - but it's massive. There is only minor focus on the economic impact of that. Nations need 'health' for workforces to contribute well to 'the economy' and to service debt. Our leaders have focused on 'the economy' and preventing a major financial crash that was coming anyway. The virus was just the pinprick. There was in the UK recently a situation where health set against the economy. This was misguided simply because health is the economy. When people think of health they usually think of physical health. However, there is another ticking time bomb of mental health problems . Nobody knows exactly how big this is gonna be. If you thought people with physical health problems were neglected, then it is much bigger for those with new or pre-existing mental health problems. People who are mentally disabled but were managing with aids, adaptations and supervision aren't getting all that as they would have pre-covid. Is this likely to improve in the next 6 months? I don't think so. How can economies recover if they are beaten by seriously damaged physical and mental health of its workforces? Difficult one. Financial hardships are projected to get worse into Winter, in the northern hemisphere. That's not good for physical or mental health. I have little doubt that agents of the FED will pump this market north, and that Robinhoods will punch the air with the FED. However, you can't create a sound economy built on thin air. The bedrock of a sound economies are the health of people. If money printing would solve everything, then GDP and employment (of various types) would be irrelevant. Surely they aren't irrelevant. So - expect the unexpected, is what I'm saying. Near 100% retracements in the face of such fundamental issues has to be suspect. There could be a big 'drop' coming - so stay alert (no predictions today - only probabilities). Those hoping for Gold to rocket north may also have a surprise. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
US TECH: GAME OVER?Well, get your popcorn ready!! US Tech 100 is in a precarious position. This is another thing that rules the world! Price ducked below 11000 - which is considered important. Will it stay below? How would I know? 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️ At time of posting price is a 10920-ish. Does this mean the backs of the USTECH and NASDAQ are broken? Of course not. Expect permabulls to do their stuff. We need them - for the big money transfer- so they're much loved! 🤣 Price action on this on the 3 to 5 min time frame today was soooo exciting! LOL. Call me a nerd - it's fine. LOL. 😉😎 If you wanna see what's really happening you just gotta get dirty in the trenches! I'll be doing a video soon, showing how I look at price action in the indices, comparing the rule of Tech100 with other indices. Stock up on popcorn! 😂👳‍♂️ I don't do predictions - because I believe trend is more important than price . Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDEducation
by Captain_Walker
DJI (Wall Street): Looking ahead for surprises. In this screencast I show some pretty interesting price action on the 1H time frame. I've used the 'theory of curves' to average out price action. The 1H is pretty risky now for trend following entries going south. The price action is looking rebellious, in that the bulls are fighting hard to keep this market afloat. There are two amazing 1H ATR switches which suggest heavy bearish pressure. But never underestimate the owners of central banks and their friends! Politricks also affects sentiment - but you can't see that influence on charts. So, there are unseen dangers. As elections approach in November in the USA, a crashing market is good for nobody. I'm expecting the ' plunge protection team ' (PPT) may become involved. Don't under estimate them - they're very powerful. Some say the PPT doesn't exist. I'm not debating it. If the PPT gets involved expect to see sudden unusual small trends north on the 3 to 5 min time frame. Often the PPT rides the back of positive news to avoid discovery. I've seen this too many times. Nothing in this post is predictive. I don't do predictions. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DJI: A nice little find - parallel channelIt doesn't matter what time frame you find stuff. Just share. That's what I do, so others can benefit (if they manage their losses properly). The 15 min channel is so curious. The obvious questions that will pop into minds are like: 1 - is that for real? 2 - how far will it go? It is real - if you see it. How far - nobody knows! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
DJI (1H): WALL STREET SAFETY DANCE? Trend following set up.On Thursday 3rd Sept 2020, the DJI did an important about turn on the 1H time frame. Price collapsed 1100 points in one day (not on mid-point pricing). A correction was not unexpected, as many had known that the DJI was heavily overbought. As this is a trend-following set up, you will find no predictions . However, 1100 points was rather more than expected and the speed at which it happened was startling. A majority of stocks took the nose dive. Even Tesla went south. Many permabull traders were left scratching their heads. Some who got out were punching the air, while others were crying in their pints. So 'everybody' wanted to know what happened. Why? It's - as usual - a complicated story and several factors contributed. A big one was some Japanese bloke (who I cannot name, because of the house rules). He pumped call options to a tune of some $50 Billion in this market. Robinhoods followed the frenzy from their homes and mobile apps, going north like the moon was in sight! Some who were following Softbank may have appreciated. I can't go into all of it. Well, somebody dumped! We can't really know who are these people. But it was a big dump you have to admit. So what does it mean? I can't know for sure so I'll speculate . Note carefully the following is speculation (and note my disclaimers). 1 - Politics is in the backdrop - there is concern among some of the big boys that the US election outcome may not be favourable. I do not wish to get into political sides on this, but geopolitics does affect sentiment. Uncertainty is the big factor. 2 - So whichever side the punters took on, as November 2020 weighed on their minds, I suspect they decided to go for cash. My speculation may be totally wrong and even I do not rely on it. To be 100% clear, I have little doubt that Robinhoods (and moms and pops) will attempt to buy the dip - possibly push price back up to 28900. However, the ATR line in a sharp switch is usually meaningful as a guide (on this time frame only). If price gets back near to 28000, I'll be looking to short with a tight controlled loss (aka stop-loss). Look, the name of the game is taking the controlled affordable loss. Any trader who scoffs at losses, actually needs to stop trading. Some will probably ask me for details on my probable stop-loss. I can't say from now because I'd need to see what the price action is like. I've already declared on the chart that this post is about trend-following. That is a very different thing to the usual you see on Tradingview. According to robust research, only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers. I cannot know to what extent the 1H ATR switch is important at this stage. This is not like in harmonic trading (trend continuation), where you see a formation and you know pretty well what your stop-loss and TP are in advance. Some people have asked me to explain more. I've done all that in several of my videos. Trend followers can be profitable with as low as a 30% win rate. How? It depends heavily on how far trends are followed, whilst minimising losses. Aggregate losses can be large too. Trend-followers can see between 3 and 20 times appreciation depending on time frame. But returning to the chart. 'We' can't know from now if a 1H trend switch will bear 'fruit'. It may bring losses. That's the name of the game. It is brutal. Stay safe. Wear a good mask. Wash your hands. Don't attend raves. Sleep well. 😉😄 Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
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