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ES S&P500 future - breakout to start a bull run? Analog inside6 Apr 2020 recap - S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) had a great rally to take out the immediate resistance at 2525 during the non-Regular Trading Hour (RTH) and to further commit above 2600-2635 during the RTH. Since ES broke out the trading range between 2440-2630, it is expected to test the higher target at 2700-2770. It is worth noting that the upside target at 2700-2770 coincides with : Fibonacci retracement of around 50% from the top (3397) to the selling climax (SC) low of 2174, as shown in the daily chart. Axis line or flip zone where there is strong resistance and supply available, as shown in the H4 chart. During the crash in Jan 2018, ES did up thrust twice before it came down to test the selling climax low. Using Jan 2018's event as an analog, we should be aware that an up thrust is a possible scenario. Bias - Slightly bullish. Expect ES to test the upside target but also prepare n up thrust bearish scenario similar to 2018. Key levels - Resistance: 2700-2770 Support: 2600-2635. Swing high and swing low from smaller timeframe Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust or test of the key levels / smaller timeframe for a short entry. Possible long entry at the support should it happen.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
Is the ES rally done yet? What's next?3 Apr 2020 recap - ES did rally to level 2525 and was rejected again. In smaller time frame (M1, M3), it did provide great short entry after the up thrust of the level. However, ES only managed to test 2450 and bounced up from there. The low volume without aggressive demand caused ES to drift down. Should ES still stuck below 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or even lower (i.e. the Selling climax's low), under the background of lacking of demand. Daily - After a sharp sell off, ES formed a selling climax (SC) low at 2174 followed by an automatic rally (AR). Now, it seems like the rally is coming to and end. The next move would be a secondary test (ST) to test the selling climax's low. It could in a form of a higher low, similar low or even lower low. Oct 2008 global financial crisis could provide a good analog for reference. Could we see a down-sloping accumulation structure similar to 2008? Weekly - a megaphone structure is formed. ES could potentially test the low as illustrated should a down-sloping structure in progress. This won't surprise me given the COVID-19 situation is getting worse every day and the impact on the businesses. Bias - bearish. If ES fails to commit above 2525, it should break down to test 2400 or lower, sooner or later. Key levels - Resistance: 2480, 2525. Support: 2450, 2400. Potential intraday setup - Look for a test or up thrust of the key levels and/or smaller timeframe to initiate a short entry. Yet, I will pay close attention for long opportunities like a spring of the swing low, shortening of the downward thrusts, etc... should it arise. Stay safe and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 3 Apr 2020 trading plan 2 Apr 2020 recap - Although yesterday was a bullish day, the character does not confirm this. It started with ugly numbers of jobless claims, which drove ES down to spring the low (around 2433) of the previous day followed by a rally up to test 2525 thanks to a spike up in crude oil. It was highlighted in M15 chart that the 2 candles tested the 2525 level has volume spike, suggests the demand was met by supply at this level. On the daily chart, candle b (yesterday) has slight increase of volume compare to candle a, yet the result (to the up side) is mediocre. The rally from yesterday only reached about half way of the previous down candle. This suggests supply was present and managed to stop the up move at level 2525. Bias - slightly bearish. If ES fails to break above 2525 with aggressive demand, it might break below the swing low at 2425 and test further down. Potential intraday setup - Look for how ES interacts with 2525 or structures in smaller timeframe. A short entry after a test or up thrust of level 2525 is preferred. Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2525 Support: 2450, 2425. Swing high and swing low from lower time frame. Note: Since yesterday has increase of supply, it is important to see how significant is the reaction. A trading range between 2425-2525 will be neutral. A break above 2525 is bullish and expect continuation of the rally. A break below 2425 should draw out more supply to test 2380 or lower.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 2 Apr 2020 trading plan 1 Apr 2020 recap - Major movement of ES happened during non-RTH. Level 2450 was tested from the last 4 H1 bars and defended eventually. The last hour bar did spring the prior swing low and form a demand tail. The magnitude of the down move might be significant but without aggressive supply. Daily volume is slightly lower than the previous day (31 Mar 2020). Result - did not commit below level 2550 and the swing low formed on 30 Mar 2020, suggests a bounce up from here. A trading range between 2450-2630 is expected. The down-sloping accumulation structure since 12 Mar 2020 is still valid. ES could have gone through a sign of strength (SOS) rally from 24-26 Mar 2020 and currently on a backup action before marking-up higher. Bias - Break above 2500 to challenge levels 2550, 2600 and the swing high (2630). Potential intraday setup - look for possible continuation of the rally if committed above 2500. Else, short into an up thrust of level 2500. Pay close attention on how ES interacts with the key levels for reversal trades. It is possible to switch to swing trade should the close is favorable. Key levels - Resistance: 2500, 2550 Support: 2450 ; Prior day high 2509 and day low 2434; Swing high and swing low from lower time frame. Note: bullish bias is maintained until emergence of aggressive supply. During the unwinding of the volatility, expects relatively normal session without huge swing (up or down).
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
ES price action analysis for 1 Apr 2020 trading plan 31 Mar 2020 recap - After tested the last hour bar from 30 Mar 2020, ES rallied up but failed to overcome the resistance formed by the swing high. Last hour supply spike is the greatest since the bottom was formed on 23 Mar 2020. Possible start of a reaction. Bias - swing down to test 2500, 2450. Potential intraday setup - Either direction can be traded. Watch out how the price interacts with the key levels and smaller structures to trade the reversal. Key levels - Resistance: 2550, 2600. Support: 2500, 2450. Note: Failure to defend the level 2450 should attract more supply to push the price down to test 2400 and/or the low formed on 23 Mar 2020. Bullish case will still be valid should ES stay above the level 2450.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by mingjong
2
ES price action analysis for 31 Mar 2020 trading plan 30 Mar 2020 recap - The weak rally up to test the last hour bar happened during non-RTH. Yet no follow through to the down side. Level 2450 was defended. Trending up with low volume, suggests both demand and supply are low. Committed above 2600 could send ES to test resistance at 2650 and 2700 during RTH. Refer to the related idea link. Bias - rally up to test 2650/2700 until emergence of supply. Potential intraday setup - look for an up thrust of the non-RTH high to short and/or a spring of the non-RTH low (also coincides with the last hour bar from yesterday) to long. Key levels - Resistance: 2650, 2700. Support: 2600, 2550 Note: Will we see a shift of sentiment after the end of this quarter? Price is at the resistance and is vulnerable for a reversal upon increasing of supply.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by mingjong
ES Price action analysis for 30 Mar 2020 trading plan 27 Mar 2020 - last hour sell off with big spread looks threatening. Yet, it still formed a higher low and within the H1 up channel. Expect a test of the bearish last hour bar during non-RTH on Monday. A break of the up channel and 2500 should send ES to test 2400-2450. Overall H1 structure - potential up thrust of 2550 level followed by a test (last hour bar on 27 Mar). Confirmation is via a break of 2500. Potential intraday setup during non-RTH - look for a test of the last hour bar followed by a reversal. Key levels - First support 2500, 2nd support 2400-2450, resistance at 2550-2600 Commitment above 2600 will violate bearish scenario.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
2
ES Price action analysis with key levels & what to expect 25 Mar 2020 - Climatic run up with increasing volume followed by biggest down wave with highest supply. Bearish reaction with slow grinding down move during non-regular trading hour (RTH). Could it be preliminary supply? 26 Mar 2020 - Another climatic run up after shocking number of jobless claim (think this ugly number will pressure the House to approve the bill?) ES broke above 2550 with fading volume. Possible exhaustive demand? Key levels to watch - First line of support - 2550, 2nd support- 2400, If stays above 2550, should challenge 2700.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by mingjong
4
A warning for the salers keep your eys at this levles Hello guys this is my first analysis using VSA and i would like to inform the investors who are selling FB to be careful because the stock price are in support zone and ther is an increasing in volume it's likely is a demand coming in so far, this is just a warning but if the price close above 152.45 just close all posisions becuse the market can rise to 202.57 and quicly ..!!! If you lik ths kind of anlysis pleas support me by comment and like !!
NASDAQ:METALong
by LalmiIbrahim