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Technical Analysis on Alibaba (BABA)Alibaba ( BABA ) has been in a long-term downtrend that began in October 2020. In the medium term, however, the price has entered a phase of compression, suggesting a possible pause or reversal of the trend. Analyzing the volumes using the Volume Profile, we can see that the price is currently caught between two key Points of Control (POC): POC 1: A significant volume level that considers the entire historical data of the stock, located around the $80 area. POC 2: A medium-term POC that reflects the current phase of compression. Bullish Scenario: To consider a potential bullish scenario, it will be necessary to wait for the price to reach POC 1, located around the $80 area, followed by a breakout and a possible retest of the descending trendline. The first significant resistance and target for this bullish scenario is around the $120 area. Bearish Scenario: For a continuation of the downtrend, it is important to monitor the price in relation to the two POCs. If the price drops below both levels and breaks the ascending line, with a possible retest, we could see an extension of the downward movement.
NYSE:BABA
by Giovanni_Bandini
Technical Analysis on AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)Analyzing the historical performance of AMD , a key turning point is evident that marked the beginning of the current bullish phase—starting at the end of 2015. During this period, the stock held an important support level, followed by a decisive breakout of the bearish trendline. On a daily timeframe, this breakout was accompanied by a gap up, known as a breakaway gap. During the upward phase, the stock experienced pullbacks ranging from 40% to 60%. The most recent pullback, which began with a Shooting Star candle, was 45% and stopped precisely at a crucial Fibonacci level of 0.618. Bullish Scenario: To confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, AMD must first surpass the $160 area and then the $190 area, a range characterized by significant volumes. Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to exceed these two levels, it could continue its retracement by breaking the ascending trendline. Two potential entry levels can be found in the POC area around $180 and the support area around $95.
NASDAQ:AMD
by Giovanni_Bandini
QQQ gives more strength to its bullish turn aroundToday QQQ started with another gap up breakout for the 2cd day in a row. Stock retraced then rallied again in the late day. Stock gapped up again doing another breakout weakening the week long sell off trend. Retracement that was expected sold off less and at slower pass than the day before Late day smart money jumped in and pushed the stock to higher highs Volume experienced a massive spike in last moments of trading which can be indication of price exhaustion. This should cause a temporary pull back next trading day Overall the bull thesis for QQQ is getting stronger each day.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ratchet-mint
2
Technical Analysis on Intel (INTC)Using long-term volume analysis with the Volume Profile, we observe that Intel's ( INTC ) current price has moved below a significant monthly Point of Control (POC). To gain a clearer perspective, it will be crucial to wait for the monthly close to determine whether the price remains above or below this POC level. By zooming in to the daily or H4 timeframe, we notice a potential rounding formation in both the candlesticks and volume, indicating a possible shift in trend direction. Bullish Scenario: To confirm a bullish scenario, it will be necessary to wait for a monthly close above the POC. This signal will be strengthened if the volumes increase as well. Bearish Scenario: If the price stays below the POC, the bearish scenario suggests potential targets, as illustrated in the image below. It may be possible to consider short entries at the levels indicated as Target 2 and Target 3.
NASDAQ:INTC
by Giovanni_Bandini
SPY shows more interest in rallying than beforeSPY is starting to show more signs that a breakout above the flat trading its in is coming We see increased volume over peaks of previous rallies indicating agreement with pushing up prices RSI's SMA starts to break through the 50 line comparing to the QQQ, its experiences another false breakout above for the second day in a row. Showing the tech sector is attempting to turn around to the upside SPY continues to still trade flat but show more confidence in its small rallies than previously
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint
QQQ looks to break into bullish territoryQQQ again breaks out above the longer resistance line to test new more bullish grounds For the second day in a row QQQ breaks above the long term downward resistance line This breakout is accompanied with increased volume over yesterday while trading in the higher zone RSI breaks above SMA during this time RSI's SMA been flat to trending slightly updward The bulls are looking to be taking over in the near future showing further weakness in this sell off.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ratchet-mint
QQQ showing more selling to comeQQQ throws signals that bears are still firmly in control and the downward trend should continue QQQ tests major resistance line, fails to breakthrough During recovery in late day trading volume steadily decreases showing disagreement in recovery After hours shows a significant sell off which has recovered some since. RSI falls in step with price showing no signs of reversal coming Next major support line is around 463 Today marked the first day of strong downward trading breaking through support and holding. We are looking at more selling to come
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ratchet-mint
TON/USDT Trading ScenarioThe decline in the TON value following the arrest of the founder of Telegram and the TON platform mirrors the scenario of BNB's price drop after the arrest of Binance's CEO. At that time, BNB lost over 30% of its value, then entered a sideways trend. However, with the start of BTC's rise at the end of December, the asset's price not only recovered but also surged by more than 280%. In the case of TON, we are observing a similar situation, making the current price attractive, while any further decline provides an additional opportunity to increase returns. The TON network and the Telegram messenger are fundamental factors contributing to the trust in this asset.
by Rick_SimpleSwap
Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas! Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets. S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs! The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between. If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you. How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup! Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade: 1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend. - Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume. 2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue). - Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day. - Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP. - Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event. 3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade. - Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1. - Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free. - Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle. 4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run. - Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions. 5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading. Always Have a Plan B! Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup. In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist: 1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range. - Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred. 2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP. - Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile. 3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met. - Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1. - Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position. 4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key. 5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time. --- Conclusion and Recommendation By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses. Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it. Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out! Subscribe to stay updated on all our latest trading ideas and strategies. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s build a community of traders who are committed to learning, growing, and succeeding together. Your journey to market mastery is just beginning, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way! What You’ll Learn: - In-depth market analysis - Proven trading setups - Effective risk management techniques - The importance of discipline in trading - How to adapt to changing market conditions - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by TradingMasteryHub
ARB/USDT 15m / D BB & FVG / ELLIOT / LIQUIDATIONS / FIBOAccording to higher timeframes, the market sentiment is bullish. We are moving within an ascending channel with the potential to rise to 0.7416. To increase the probability of this outcome, the price needs to establish itself above the ascending channel. Locally, within the range of the daily breaker block (D BB) and the daily imbalance (D FVG), three potential entry points are visible: 1. Liquidity grab (Sellside liquidity) 2. 0.5 Fibo 3. 0.618 Fibo / bottom of the ascending channel 4. The target is the local high, which is at the midline of the channel. Locally, based on the EFIATR oscillator, volume, and liquidation levels, there is a likelihood of growth. According to Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave pattern and an ABC correction in the 4th wave are visible, which further increases the probability of upward movement.
Long
by WoWAcEDuDe
3
Technical Analysis on PayPal (PYPL)PayPal ( PYPL ) has experienced a medium-term negative trend, losing over 80% from its 2021 highs. This downtrend developed after the formation of a Double Top chart pattern. Currently, the price is near a key resistance area at $70 (marked as Res 1), highlighted in purple. In the past, this zone acted as support (green arrows), and more recently, it has been serving as resistance, with the price being rejected twice (red arrows). In the short term, the stock is showing a slightly positive formation, with an ascending triangle pattern taking shape. Additionally, the price is positioned above the main Point of Control (POC), considering the entire volume history. Bullish Scenario: To confirm a bullish scenario, the stock needs to break above the $70 resistance area (Res 1). If successful, it could progressively reach $100 and subsequently $120. Above this level, there are inefficient zones with low volume where the stock could potentially extend further. Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to break the first resistance and falls below the POC area, it could resume its downtrend, targeting the first support area around $40 in stages.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Giovanni_Bandini
CRV/USDT Trading ScenarioOver the past 820 days, CRV has been in a steady accumulation phase, as indicated by volume profile analysis. In early August of this year, the asset reached a new all-time low at $0.1794. This decline led to a significant increase in buying volumes, signaling strong investor interest and active accumulation of positions. The volume profile analysis reveals a concentration of trading volumes in this price zone, which is characteristic of an accumulation phase. The continuous price decline, coupled with rising buying volumes, suggests that the asset may be preparing for potential future growth. Considering the current accumulation phase and the increasing interest from buyers, it can be inferred that the asset is on the verge of potential growth.
by Rick_SimpleSwap
6
ZEN/USDT Trading ScenarioZEN has been trading within a sideways range for over 630 days, hovering near price lows around the $5.52 mark. During this period, significant volume accumulation has been observed, as confirmed by the volume profile. Additionally, a notable increase in trading volume has occurred during the formation of this range. As the accumulation phase nears its end, with the onset of altcoin season, there is potential for an upward breakout and subsequent strong price growth. In the current price zone, a buying opportunity may be considered, holding the main position until the 0.5 Fibonacci level or higher, with partial profit-taking along the way.
by Rick_SimpleSwap
Decoding Money Flow within Markets to Anticipate Price DirectionI. Introduction In the intricate world of financial markets, understanding the flow of capital between different assets is paramount for traders and investors aiming to anticipate price movements. Money doesn't move haphazardly; it often follows patterns and trends influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and inter-market relationships. This article delves into the concept of money flow between markets, specifically analyzing how volume movements in one market can influence price directions in another. Our focus centers on two pivotal markets: the 10-Year T-Note Futures (ZN1!) and the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!). Additionally, we'll touch upon other significant markets such as ES1! (E-mini S&P 500 Futures), GC1! (Gold Futures), 6E1! (Euro FX Futures), BTC1! (Bitcoin Futures), and ZC1! (Corn Futures) to provide a comprehensive view. By employing the Granger Causality test—a statistical method used to determine if one time series can predict another—we aim to unravel the nuanced relationships between these markets. Through this exploration, we aspire to equip readers with insights and methodologies that can enhance their trading strategies, particularly in anticipating price directions based on volume dynamics. II. Understanding Granger Causality Granger Causality is a powerful statistical tool used to determine whether one time series can predict another. While it doesn't establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship in the strictest sense, it helps identify if past values of one variable contain information that can predict future values of another. In the context of financial markets, this can be invaluable for traders seeking to understand how movements in one market might influence another. Pros and Cons: Predictive Power: It provides a systematic way to determine if one market’s past behavior can forecast another’s, helping traders anticipate potential market movements. Quantitative Analysis: Offers a statistical basis for analyzing market relationships, reducing reliance on subjective judgment. Lag Dependency: The test is dependent on the chosen lag length, which may not capture all relevant dynamics between the series. Not True Causality: Granger Causality only suggests a predictive relationship, not a true cause-and-effect mechanism. III. Understanding Money Flow via Granger Causality The data used for this analysis consists of daily volume figures for each of the seven markets described above, spanning from January 1, 2018, to the present. While the below heatmap presents results for different lags, we will focus on a lag of 2 days as we aim to capture the short-term predictive relationships that exist between these markets. Key Findings The results of the Granger Causality test are presented in the form of a heatmap. This visual representation provides a clear, at-a-glance understanding of which markets have predictive power over others. Each cell in the matrix represents the p-value of the Granger Causality test between a "Cause" market (row) and an "Effect" market (column). Lower p-values (darker cell) indicate a stronger statistical relationship, suggesting that the volume in the "Cause" market can predict movements in the "Effect" market. Key Observations related to ZN1! (10-Year T-Note Futures): The heatmap shows significant Granger-causal relationships between ZN1! volume and the volumes of several other markets, particularly CL1! (Light Crude Oil Futures), where the p-value is 0, indicating a very strong predictive relationship. This suggests that an increase in volume in ZN1! can reliably predict subsequent volume changes in CL1!, which aligns with our goal of identifying capital flow from ZN1! to CL1! In this case. IV. Trading Methodology With the insights gained from the Granger Causality test, we can develop a trading methodology to anticipate price movements in CL1! based on volume patterns observed in ZN1!. Further Volume Analysis with CCI and VWAP 1. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): CCI is a versatile technical indicator that when applied to volume, measures the volume deviation from its average over a specific period. In this methodology, we use the CCI to identify when ZN1! is experiencing excess volume. Identifying Excess Volume: The CCI value for ZN1! above +100 suggests there is an excess of buying volume. Conversely, when CL1!’s CCI is below +100 while ZN1! is above +100, it implies that the volume from ZN1! has not yet transferred to CL1!, potentially signaling an upcoming volume influx into CL1!. 2. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The VWAP represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Predicting Price Direction: If Today’s VWAP is Above Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario indicates that the market's average trading price is increasing, suggesting bullish sentiment. In this case, if ZN1! shows excess volume (CCI above +100), we would expect CL1! to make a higher high tomorrow. If Today’s VWAP is Below Yesterday’s VWAP: This scenario suggests bearish sentiment, with the average trading price declining. Here, if ZN1! shows excess volume, we would expect CL1! to make a lower low tomorrow. Application of the Methodology: Step 1: Identify Excess Volume in ZN1!: Using the CCI, determine if ZN1! is above +100. Step 2: Assess CL1! Volume: Check if CL1! is below +100 on the CCI. Step 3: Use VWAP to Confirm Direction: Compare today’s VWAP to yesterday’s. If it’s higher, prepare for a higher high in CL1!; if it’s lower, prepare for a lower low. This methodology combines statistical insights from the Granger Causality test with technical indicators to create a structured approach to trading. V. Case Studies: Identifying Excess Volume and Anticipating Price Direction Case Study 1: May 23, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +265.11 CL1!: CCI was at +12.84. VWAP: Below the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A lower low was made. Case Study 2: June 28, 2024 Charts for this case study are at the top of the article. Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +175.12 CL1!: CCI was at -90.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. Case Study 3: July 11, 2024 Scenario: ZN1! exhibited a CCI value of +133.39 CL1!: CCI was at +0.23. VWAP: Above the prior day’s VWAP. Outcome: A higher high was made. These case studies underscore the practical application of the trading methodology in real market scenarios. VI. Conclusion The exploration of money flow between markets provides valuable insights into how capital shifts can influence price movements across different asset classes. The trading methodology developed around this relationship, utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to measure excess volume and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to confirm price direction, offers a systematic approach to capitalizing on these inter-market dynamics. Through the case studies, we demonstrated the practical application of this methodology, showing how traders can anticipate higher highs or lower lows in CL1! based on volume conditions observed in ZN1!. Key Takeaways: Granger Causality: This test is an effective tool for uncovering predictive relationships between markets, allowing traders to identify where capital might flow next. CCI and VWAP: These indicators, when used together, provide a robust framework for interpreting volume data and predicting subsequent price movements. Limitations and Considerations: While Granger Causality can reveal important inter-market relationships, it is not without its limitations. The test's accuracy depends on the chosen lag lengths and the stationarity of the data. Additionally, the CCI and VWAP indicators, while powerful, are not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other analysis tools. Traders should remain mindful of the broader market context, including economic events and geopolitical factors, which can influence market behavior in ways that statistical models may not fully capture. Additionally, effective risk management practices are crucial, as they help mitigate potential losses that may arise from unexpected market movements or the limitations of any predictive models. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
e-Learning with the TradingMasteryHub - Sentiment Analysis**🚀 Welcome to the TradingMasteryHub Education Series! 📚** Are you looking to level up your trading game? Join us for the next 10 lessons as we dive deep into essential trading concepts that will help you grow your knowledge and sharpen your skills. Whether you're a beginner or looking to refine your strategy, these lessons are designed to guide you on your journey to better understand the markets. **📊 What is Sentiment Analysis?** Sentiment analysis gauges the mood of market participants towards an asset or the entire market. By analyzing news, social media, and financial reports, you can determine whether the sentiment is bullish, bearish, or neutral, helping you anticipate market moves. **👥 Who Are the Most Important Market Participants?** The market is shaped by various players: Retail traders, institutional investors, market makers, central banks, high-frequency traders, and arbitrageurs. Each plays a crucial role in price movements and market efficiency. **📈 Why Does Sentiment Matter?** Sentiment drives market behavior. Understanding it allows you to anticipate trends, avoid potential pitfalls, and make informed decisions before significant market moves. **🔍 How to Read the Market Sentiment?** Analyze news headlines, social media, market indices like the VIX, and sentiment indicators like the Put/Call Ratio to get a comprehensive view of market sentiment. **🎯 The Right Indicator** Selecting the right sentiment indicator depends on your trading focus. Use tools like the Bullish Percent Index, AAII Sentiment Survey, and VIX to gain deeper insights. --> ❤️ I love the sentiment indicator by Dreatblitz: Bull Bear Power Trend (BBPT) - I use it to find divergences in price and emotional trends. **👍 Pros and Cons of Sentiment Analysis** **Pros:** Anticipate market moves, identify overbought/oversold conditions, and complement other analyses. **Cons:** It can be subjective, rapidly change, and sometimes lead to irrational market behavior. **🔚 Conclusion and Recommendation** Sentiment analysis is a powerful tool in your trading arsenal. Combine it with technical and fundamental analysis for the best results, and always prioritize risk management. With practice, you'll become adept at reading market sentiment and using it to your advantage. **🔥 Can’t get enough? Don't Miss Out!** Subscribe, share, and engage with us in the comments. This is the start of a supportive trading community—built by traders, for traders! 🚀 Join us on the journey to market mastery, where we grow, learn, and succeed together. 💪 **💡 What You'll Learn:** - The fundamentals of trading - Key technical and sentiment indicators - Risk management strategies - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:WTICOUSDEducation
by TradingMasteryHub
STG/USDT NEW BREAK POSSIBLITYSTG/USDT shows the low time frame possibility for new volume which can affect the price for an uptrend. ( depend all on high chance) There are no guarantees in the markets. The new increase volume updates always start with interest if there is a confirmation to follow and if there is a building with a hold for a time. 90% of coins this time are not building coins. Some % also show a start fake trend and return to where it started. time frame confirmation + high levels building is important for a healthy coin. There is a good chance for a break in the coming time. Trend levels The coin is on important break trend which means if it can get confirmed it will break.
Long
by SatochiTrader