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Volatility

12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Nearish divergence short term but needs seller supply If no one sells this might not go as bearish as it will be/is. This is a chance to re buy in remember there are many folk wanting it waiting for these dips… unlike last runs. People are accumulating like never before and crypto is the most volatile market we have. Don’t assume anything expect anything and don’t be upset if the market drops by tomorrow morning and you didn’t sell.. I haven’t sold in years I have swapped but. So I’ve made gains there. Still follow your instinct. Do your own research always before executing buy or sell orders and of not swapping out but on market always make it a limit order where you place the price to buy being just below the current price or the price you see technicals showing it will or might dip to.. try not market buy unless you are a well versed trader it’s one of the BIGGEST MISTAKES new crypto traders do. Where FX traders often learn alot more same as stock traders before they start trading but crypto can be done ANYWHERE. Same with stocks and FX but crypto is different people can and do gift it every day. It’s something you can earn and then own as an asset of some kind depending where you live. Anyways what you think will happen come tomorrow morning or this time tomorrow? What about in 7 days? Let’s stay on topic and post positive comments that can help us all learn to destroy the stock market for our gains together!
Long
by CryptoFerk
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/9/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21670.75 - PR Low: 21626.75 - NZ Spread: 98.5 No key scheduled economic events Holding auction in ATHs - QQQ daily gap below 520 Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 12/9) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 263.85 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 293K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
S&P 500 - Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable?Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable? Section 1: Signs of Complacency Our Volatility Valuation Index (VVI) has dipped to the lower end of its range—an area that often signals complacency. Historically, this level tends to align with market tops, so it’s worth paying close attention. Could this be a warning sign for the S&P 500? Section 2: About the VVI The VVI measures extremes in volatility, helping to identify potential market turning points. It’s trend-agnostic, meaning high volatility can signal both tops and bottoms. For equities, high readings typically align with bottoms, while low readings often flag tops. That said, it works best when paired with other indicators like trend and momentum. Section 3: What’s Next? Tomorrow, we’ll dive into momentum signals on the S&P 500 to see what’s really happening under the hood. Stay tuned!
SP:SPX
by AlexSpiroglou
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/6/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21458.50 - PR Low: 21424.75 - NZ Spread: 75.25 Key scheduled economic events 08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings - Nonfarm Payrolls - Unemployment Rate AMP raised margin requirements overnight for pre-RTH jobs numbers - ATH continue to march higher - Retraced nearly 50% of Wednesday range Session Open Stats (As of 1:45 AM 12/6) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 267.49 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 291K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 (updated) - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
Bullish for Dec 7th!!Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has recently cleared fraud allegations through an independent probe, leading to a significant stock surge. However, with 15.67% of its shares shorted and a short interest ratio of 1.0 days, the stock remains volatile. Key catalysts that could force shorts to cover include the approval of SMCI’s compliance plan by Nasdaq, following its recent appointment of BDO USA as auditor to resolve financial reporting issues, and its participation in investor events like the Barclays Global Tech Conference on December 7, 2024. These developments, combined with heightened investor interest and potential short squeeze dynamics, suggest a highly volatile near-term outlook.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by justin_p_mcfarland
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21523.75 - PR Low: 21504.50 - NZ Spread: 43.25 Key scheduled economic event 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims ATH march continues, pausing inside previous session highs Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 12/5) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 276.30 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 297K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/4/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21336.50 - PR Low: 21305.75 - NZ Spread: 68.75 Key scheduled economic events: (busy day) 08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 13:45 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Auctioning into new ATHs Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 12/4) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 282.51 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 289K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/3/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21224.50 - PR Low: 21203.75 - NZ Spread: 46.25 Key scheduled economic event: 10:00 | JOLTs Job Openings Teasing ATH breach Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 12/3) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 288.13 - Volume: 15K - Open Int: 285K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
The BANK NIFTY futures chart is signalling critical levels🚀 Attention NSE and StockMarketIndia traders! The BANK NIFTY futures chart is signalling critical levels you don't want to miss. We've got a strong resistance around 53,160, marked by a Fibonacci retracement level at 0.618 level. This level has been tested multiple times, showing the market's hesitation to break through. If we see a close above this level with volume, it could indicate a bullish breakout, targeting the next Fibonacci level at 0.786. On the downside, watch the 52000 supports, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this could lead to a deeper correction, potentially testing the psychological 50,000 mark before finding a base. As the Fibonacci retracement shows the compelling price swings between the levels of 0.382 & 0.5 at the horizon. The Fibonacci time-based extension predict the price movement at the vertical time frame. Volume spikes are crucial here; increased volume on upward moves could validate a bullish scenario, while high volume on declines would suggest a bearish continuation. Stay vigilant, set your stop-losses wisely, and be ready for volatility. The market is at a pivotal point. Follow @stocktechbot for continuous updates and insights.
NSE:BANKNIFTYZ2024
by stocktechbot
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/2/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 21004.00 - PR Low: 20952.50 - NZ Spread: 115.0 Key scheduled economic events: 09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI - ISM Manufacturing Prices Maintaining previous week's range near the highs Session Open Stats (As of 1:15 AM 12/2) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 289.09 - Volume: 26K - Open Int: 273K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
Measured Moves: A Guide to Finding TargetsMeasured Moves: A Guide to Finding Targets Visualizing the boundaries of price movement helps anticipate potential swing points. The concept of measured moves offers a structured framework to estimate future price behavior, based on the observation that each swing move often mirrors the size of the previous one, assuming average price volatility remains consistent. While not exact, this approach provides a practical method to approximate the extension of a swing move. Background Determining profit targets across various methods and timeframes can be challenging. To address this, I reviewed the tactics of experienced traders and market research, noting key similarities and differences. Some traders relied more on discretion, while others used technical targets or predetermined risk-to-reward ratios. Levels of support and resistance (S/R) and the Fibonacci tool frequently appeared, though their application varied by trader. Based on current evidence, levels appear most relevant when tied to the highest and lowest swing points within the current price structure, for example in a range-bound market. In contrast, sporadic or subtle levels from historical movements seem no more significant than random points. The Fibonacci tool can provide value since measurements are based on actual price range; however, the related values have limited evidence to support them. To explore these ideas, I conducted measurements on over a thousand continuation setups to identify inherent or consistent patterns in swing moves. It’s important to emphasize that tools and indicators should never be used blindly. Trading requires self-leadership and critical thinking. The application of ideas without understanding their context or validity undermines the decision-making process and leads to inconsistent results. This concept formed the foundation for my analysis, ensuring that methods were tested rather than taken at face value. Definitions Trending price movement advances in steps, either upward or downward. This includes a stronger move followed by a weaker corrective move, also known as a retracement. When the corrective move is done and prices seem to resume the prevailing trend, we can use the prior move to estimate targets; this is known as a projection. For example, if a stock moves up by 10%, pauses, and subsequently makes another move, we can utilize that value to estimate the potential outcome. Well thats the idea.. Data Through manual measurements across various timeframes, price structures, and stock categories, I have gathered data on retracements and projections. However, this information should not be considered precise due to market randomness and inherent volatility. In fact, deviations—such as a notable failure to reach a target or overextensions—can indicate a potential structural change. As this study was conducted with a manual approach, there is a high risk of selection bias, which raises concerns about the methodology's reliability. However, it allows for a more discretionary perspective, enabling observations and discretion that might be overlooked in a purely automated analysis. To simplify the findings, the presented values below represent a combination of all the data. Retracement Tool In the context of price movements within a trend, specifically continuation setups, retracements typically fall between 20% and 50% of the prior move. While retracements beyond 50% are less common, this does not necessarily invalidate the setup. From my observations, two distinct patterns emerge. First, a shallow retracement where the stock consolidates within a narrow range, typically pulling back no more than 10% to 20% before continuing its trend. Second, a deeper retracement, often around 50%, followed by a nested move higher before a continuation. For those referencing commonly mentioned values (though not validated), levels such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 44.7%, and 50% align with this range. Additionally, 18% frequently appears as a notable breakout point. However, I strongly advise against relying on precise numbers with conviction due to the natural volatility and randomness inherent in the market. Instead, a more reliable approach is to maintain a broad perspective—for example, recognizing that retracements in the 20% to 50% range are common before a continuation. This approach allows flexibility and helps account for the variability in price action. Projection Tool When there is a swing move either upward or downward, we can utilize the preceding one of the same type for estimation. This approach can be used exclusively since it is applicable for retracements, projections, and range-bound markets as long as there has been a similar price event in recent time. In terms of projection, the most common range is between 60% and 120% of the prior move, with 70% to 100% being more prevalent. It is uncommon for a stock to exceed 130% of the preceding move. Frequently mentioned values in this context include 61.8% and 78.6% as one area, although these values are frequently surpassed. The next two commonly mentioned values are 88.6% and 100%, which are the most frequent and can be used effectively on their own. These values represent a complete measured move, as they closely mimic the magnitude of the prior move with some buffer. The last value, 127%, is also notable, but exceeding this level is less common. Application The simplest application of this information is to input the range of 80% to 100% into the projection tool. Then, measure a similar prior move to estimate the subsequent one. This is known as the measured move. There are no strict rules to follow—it’s more of an art. The key is to measure the most similar move in recent times. If the levels appear unclear or overly complicated, they likely are. The process should remain simple and combined with a discretionary perspective. Interestingly, using parallel channels follows the same principle, as they measure the range per swing and project average volatility. This can provide an alternative yet similar way to estimate price movement based on historical swings. The advantage of this method is its universal and adaptable nature for setting estimates. However, it requires a prior swing move and is most effective in continuation setups. Challenges arise when applying it to the start of a new move, exhaustion points, or structural changes, as these can distort short-term price action. For instance, referencing a prior uptrend to project a downtrend is unlikely to be effective due to the opposing asymmetry in swing moves. In some cases, measured moves from earlier periods can be referenced if the current range is similar. Additionally, higher timeframes take precedence over lower ones when determining projections. This is nothing more than a tool and should be used with a discretionary perspective, as with all indicators and drawing tools. The true edge lies elsewhere. Example Use 1. Structure: Identify an established trend or range and measure a clear swing move. 2. Measured Move: Apply the measurement to the subsequent move by duplicating the line to the next point or using a trend-based Fibonacci extension tool set to 100% of the prior swing. The first two points define the swing move. The third point is placed at the deepest part of the subsequent pullback or at the start of the new move. 3. Interpretation: While this is a simple tool, its effective use and contextual application require experience and practice. Remember, this process relies on approximation and discretionary judgment.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Trader-Shah
12
With big ups come big downs. Hi all thanks for looking this is a simple ML script that is showing a large dip following the current high price action. This is not advice nor correct it’s not “what’s going to happen” it’s simple a machine learning system that takes some info and then uses it for the future reference line. Which is going red in the 4H. This isn’t gospel it’s just another idea that is from a script so enjoy and share whatever you think is if value here l! Let’s learn together and make crypto or bitcoin gains together!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoFerk
ETH within the Fibonacci time and retracement LevelsIn this Ethereum (ETH/USD) daily chart, we observe a fascinating interplay of Fibonacci time-based trend lines and Fibonacci retracement levels, providing a comprehensive outlook on potential price behavior. The chart highlights key Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.236 (2,571.1), 0.382 (2,835.3), 0.5 (3,048.8), 0.618 (3,462.4), and 0.786 (3,666.4), which serve as critical support and resistance zones. The Fibonacci time-based trend lines, marked by vertical green and red lines, indicate significant time intervals where price action is likely to experience notable changes. Within the highlighted box, three potential scenarios are mapped out: a bullish trend, consolidation, and a bearish trend. The bullish scenario suggests a price surge towards the 4,000 level and beyond, while consolidation indicates a sideways movement around the 3,800 mark. Conversely, the bearish scenario points to a potential decline towards the 3,200 level. This analysis provides traders with a strategic framework to anticipate Ethereum's price movements and make informed decisions.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by stocktechbot
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/27/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20998.75 - PR Low: 20967.75 - NZ Spread: 69.5 Key scheduled economic events 08:30 | Durable Goods Orders - GDP - Initial Jobless Claims 09:45 | Chicago PMI 10:00 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY) 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes Holding inside previous 2 session range near the highs - Busy schedule ahead of holiday market close Session Open Stats (As of 2:25 AM 11/27) - Weekend Gap: +0.24 (filled) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 294.01 - Volume: 25K - Open Int: 270K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5
NVIDIA $NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA | NVIDIA EARNINGS REPORT Nov. 20th, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $148.75 - $165.00 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $138.00 - $148.75 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $118.25 - $138.00 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish NASDAQ:NVDA reports earnings today, these are the areas that I will look for significant price movement at. The market is anticipating around an 8.5% move, roughly an $11.50 move in either direction, based on ATM option prices, or an 11%-12% move, roughly $16.50 move in either direction, based on volatility calculations. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility, nvidia, nvidiapricetarget, nvdatrend, nvidiatrend, nvdasetup, nvidialongs, nvidiashorts,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TonyAiello
Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY! Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations. Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios: Bullish Breakout Example: Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000. If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside. The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals. Bearish Breakout Example: Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000. If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside. The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals. LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by fract
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/26/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20933.50 - PR Low: 20800.50 - NZ Spread: 297.75 Key scheduled economic events 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence - New Home Sales 14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes Daily printed for pivot high off 21088 - Auctioning inside previous session range - Almost 300 point spread for open session range (PR) Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 11/26) - Weekend Gap: +0.24 (filled) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 304.97 - Volume: 48K - Open Int: 269K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 21525 - Mid: 20954 - Short: 19815 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024
by mv3trader5