Get started

VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Nasdaq Bear Case.Good evening, This post is part of a series of requests i recently received. The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market". --- Well, this right here is my primary bear case for the Nasdaq. Keep in mind, this is just a single bear case from my perspective; there's always many different potential outcomes, and it's my duty to discover them, and share them with you - the trader. >Just because you are seeing this picture here today, does not mean this is what will happen . --- Tuesday November 29th 2022 ~ December 21st 2022 = my calculated top for the Nasdaq. Estimated to sit between $13,016 ~ $15,308. High probability target = $13,697. ps. if money rotates, or a proper catalyst appears, nasdaq could squeeze up to some of the higher targets on my chart to create a regular or expanded flat. --- Friday May 12th 2023 ~ Tuesday October 24th 2023 = my calculated bottom. Estimated to sit between $9449 ~ $7361. High probability target = $8085. --- 🔺
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by notoriousbids
Copper, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyLet's see what the 2008 analogy says about the next thing. Currently, we can observe a similarity in many charts, e.g., the S&P 500 index, VIX, gold, and USOIL / UKOIL, to what was happening in 2008. Copper is no exception, and the analogy indicates copper's price decline. If the price follows it perfectly, the declines may end in the second zone. But I do not expect such accuracy; there is also the closer (first) zone, which can bring it on. I will write no more about it, why it may happen. Check out the related ideas.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
⬆️ Break Out, 24th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On the eve of Thanksgiving, SPY broke out and closed above the recent high by the tiniest of margins. Long only investors will be happy. I'm guessing a few more Turkeys will make it to the dinner table. The sacrifice of the Turkey may be premature if the break out is not confirmed by further Bullish price action post the holiday. 🦃 ➤ VIX is fast approaching the 20 level where it starts to get interesting for the Bears. If the VIX manages to rebound higher, it could mean the end of the Bull run. If we were to follow the 29th March and 16th August examples, then price needs to hit a resistance level too. I have 411/4110 marked for SPY/SPX500. ➤ Note that the up move since the yearly low is NOT a "Change of Character" - see the weekly SPY chart insert. If prices break lower, it confirms that this Bullish move is just a Bear market rally. ➤ I remain long with a +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Not a time to celebrate for the Bulls.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
TVC:USOILShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
➕ Stay Positive, 23rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sideways movement looks to be resolving to the upside. The SPY/SPX500 is looking to breach and stay above the psychologically important 400/4000 level. VIX has collapsed heading towards the 20 level. ➤ Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or better known as Trend Followers are a group of institution traders/whales. They are computer driven algorithms that take medium term positions across hundreds of markets. The stronger the trend (up or down) the larger their positions (subject to volatility constraints). I understand these strategies well since I used to work for one of the largest CTAs in the world. ➤ As this Bullish run continues, a major increase in their long equity positions may be starting to trigger. This is exacerbated further with the lower volatility e.g. falling VIX. Lower volatility means the ability to take on larger positions per unit of risk. This buying will be a major support for equities. ➤ I have increased my long exposure to +68%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Stay positive, I'm riding the up trend for now.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
S&P500 melt up - has the seasonal rally just kicked into gear?Top-level view - Long and strong for 4200, cutting on a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover On the day we see the US500 cash closing +1.4% and above 4000, taking the bear market rally to 14.6% from the 13 Oct low. All sectors rallied with energy the best performer gaining 3.2% - breadth was broad at a stock level and we see 89% of stocks in the index closing higher – hard to paint a more bullish picture. Not sure we can fault the intra-day tape either - it was an out and out trend day and as soon as price smashed through VWAP in European trade, retested and found buyers, it was all uphill with a solid melt-up into the close. Of course, we have a World Cup underway, and a bunch of traders took time out here, where we see S&P500 futures volume an anemic 1.1m contracts, while cash volumes were 26% below the 30-day average. As anyone who was long and held through US trade would attest – you can still make money in a low-volume environment. Has the rally got legs? One prominent strategist who has called the US500 well throughout 2022 is Mike Wilson (of Morgan Stanley) who has pulled out his playbook, calling for the US500 to rally to 4100-4300 by year-end – however, once we get past the turn his call is that the index retreats to a range of 3300 to 3000 by end Q1, before staging a solid rally into the end-2023. It's not often we see such definition from a sell-side strategist and it's gutsy – his logic is sound but what the market does is another thing. The technicals favour further upside If we look at the setup of the US500 on the daily a long bias is certainly the favoured position. Naturally if the flow and structure change and become more bearish, we do something about it quickly – as traders we react to signal, or it costs. Importantly, we’ve seen price break out of the bull flag, which if we take the move from the 3 Nov low targets 4280. We have the 200-day MA lurking at 4050, and while we saw price reject this average in April and mid-August, a bullish break here could see further longs being added – certainly, the systematic trend traders would be adding to a modestly long position, and this could propel the index into trend resistance. Consider the idea of FOMO and FOMU (fear of meaningfully underperforming) – the S&P500 is -16% and if youre an active money manager and benchmark to the index and the index is going up then you simply have to put cash to work and chase – or you risk underperforming and not getting paid. We know there is a ton of cash on the sidelines. A VIX testing 20% is also a bullish sign for risk. A stop that keeps you in the trade - If we use a simple 3 and 8-day EMA crossover stop, then longs are still in play, and this can keep you in the trade and remove the emotion of taking profits in a strong trending environment. So, one to watch – while volumes are low and we eye huge data in December, the melt-up in equities is starting to take shape
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
2
VIX is getting for its own prime timeWatching 20-21 zone for a support. Historically VIX 20 zone is the bear/bull line. I expect that to me either tested or even broken for a fake move down and then start to explode. When VIX is at 45+ watch for the market capitulation. Ideal target for the VIX is 65+ early next year. When its moving above 35 and especially 45, no no longs for me period, only sell the rips (if there will be any) Im in with Apr VIX 35 calls, will add tomorrow and on the 28th
CBOE:VIX
by RealTima
6
S&P Trend VIXS&P chart against VIX on the monthly time frame. Comparing the longer term trends, when the VIX cycles up and down we get rally's and corrections, but if theres a sustained VIX trend change, it could indicate overall market direction change. IMPORTANT -Normally indicated by higher highs/lows and lower highs/lows on VIX channel. None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
SP:SPX
by Turtlecoins
🔪 Chop Chop... 22nd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sideways movement continues in equities. A Bullish bias still applies although my signals have weakened in its conviction. ➤ Choppy conditions are not ideal for my Strategy. Especially the kind where there is a tight range with high volatility (large up and down swings). This is because a large reversal against my entry will usually force me to exit, resulting in a bigger than average loss. If repeated multiple times, it can cause a pro-longed drawdown in returns. ➤ So far the choppy conditions experienced has been on relatively low volatility. It's not ideal but also not the worst. The good news is that these conditions tend to not last long. Markets will "snap" out of it soon to trend in one direction. ➤ I have reduced my long exposure to +42%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I have a feeling markets are more interested in watching the Football World Cup right now. 🏆
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
nasdaq 11-21 ~ good afternoon, here's what the nasdaq looks like from a bullish perspective. --- local dip to backtest local downtrend, in confluence with the local 50~88% retrace of the big pop from the other day. i'm labeling this dip as the second 1-2 within what looks to me like a bullish nest . --- if i'm right about the nest, we will see tech take off big time over the next few weeks, bigger than any of us are currently expecting. --- not financial advice, take my art with a grain of salt.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by notoriousbids
NIFTY Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 NIFTY Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2%, according to INDIA VIX data (INDIA Volatility Index ) With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 11th percentile, while according to INDIA VIX, we are on 2th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.89% movement Bearish: 1.5% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 18610 BOT: 17882 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 66% probability we are going to touch previous low of 18220(already hit) 31% probability we are going to touch previous high of 18460 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 80% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 31% bullish stance
NSE:NIFTY
by exlux
📈 Higher Please... 21st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity prices moved side-ways last week. This is good news for the Bulls. As prices have held within a tight range, there is so far no sign of a "Change of Character" or CHoCH. ➤ The CHoCH concept comes from Wyckoff analysis. It describes an abnormal price bar or set of price bars that moves against the recent price trend. A major pause or a change in trend often results from a CHoCH. I do not see this with the current price action. This would infer Buyers are accumulating equities for a push higher. My trading signals agree as I added long positions across the board in all indices that I trade. ➤ Of course, nothing is set in stone, I'll have my fingers close to the exit button in case price action shows a change in the Bullish narrative. ➤ I currently have +102% long exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: All eyes will be on the Football World Cup but mine are firmly fixed on the Charts. 👀
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro