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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

VIX GAPS COULD NOT BE EASIER!Here we have another gap, and these really seem to play well on the VIX! Not guaranteed but something to watch. DXY is holding strong as well ;) Not financial advice, DYOR www.investopedia.com Gaps are spaces on a chart that emerge when the price of the financial instrument significantly changes with little or no trading in-between. Gaps occur unexpectedly as the perceived value of the investment changes, due to underlying fundamental or technical factors. Gaps are classified as breakaway, exhaustion, common, or continuation, based on when they occur in a price pattern and what they signal. How to Play the Gaps There are many ways to take advantage of these gaps, with a few strategies more popular than others. Some traders will buy when fundamental or technical factors favor a gap on the next trading day. For example, they'll buy a stock after hours when a positive earnings report is released, hoping for a gap up on the following trading day. Traders might also buy or sell into highly liquid or illiquid positions at the beginning of a price movement, hoping for a good fill and a continued trend. For example, they may buy a currency when it is gapping up very quickly on low liquidity and there is no significant resistance overhead. Some traders will fade gaps in the opposite direction once a high or low point has been determined (often through other forms of technical analysis). For example, if a stock gaps up on some speculative report, experienced traders may fade the gap by shorting the stock. Lastly, traders might buy when the price level reaches the prior support after the gap has been filled. An example of this strategy is outlined below. Here are the key things you will want to remember when trading gaps: Once a stock has started to fill the gap, it will rarely stop, because there is often no immediate support or resistance. Exhaustion gaps and continuation gaps predict the price moving in two different directions—be sure you correctly classify the gap you are going to play. Retail investors are the ones who usually exhibit irrational exuberance; however, institutional investors may play along to help their portfolios, so be careful when using this indicator and wait for the price to start to break before taking a position. Be sure to watch the volume. High volume should be present in breakaway gaps, while low volume should occur in exhaustion gaps.
TVC:VIX
by ChartProphet
4
VIX long, but how long?VIX price movement is clearly narrowing from a charting technical view, but within the economic fundamentals we have the FED raising rates at an extremely fast pace into a slowdown. Their publicly stated inflation projection was clearly wrong, I highly doubt they will squash inflation with much accuracy given these blunt force tools. For this reason the VIX could go well beyond the 35-40 range if the FED over raised rates. Since Powell was guessing on inflation after injecting more money into the system than ever before(no data to support obviously), it’s fair to assume there is no data to support the current pace and magnitude of raises in this slowing environment. If the current pace is perfect(again no data it would be almost lucky) then the VIX could fall from 35. My base case is the VIX goes over 40 and the FED cuts rates to fix their second mess later this year.
TVC:VIXLong
by bgreer009
6
SPY option profit opportunity while VIX is lowThe Market Ear recently teased a swoon in S$PX/$SPY, noting at the end of last week: "The absolute cost of a 2 month 5% put in $SPX is trading at one of the lowest level in ~2 years." Puts cost too much, but when $VIX is low, so are put premiums (relatively). If you think the market could see a 5% swoon from here in the short term, there are a couple of ways to play it. One would be to buy puts outright. As of Friday's close, $SPY 385 puts for 3/31 expiry were priced at $5.17 per contract. If $SPY breaks soon, your theta loss would be minimal while implied volatility increases could provide quick early profits. Traders whose favor a fixed risk/reward strategy could purchase 395-385 put debit spreads for 3/31 expiry at $2.27 per spread (as of Friday's close). Your maximum loss would be $227 per spread with a maximum gain of $772, roughly a 3:1 R/R ratio. As with all option plays, traders will want to watch days-to-expiry and drawdowns, and consider taking profits on the way down.
AMEX:SPY
by SwingWaiter
The Business End, 30th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ We've come to the end of January and it is going to be one of the busiest of the year. Interest rate decision, major earnings and key economic data combine. Add on to the important technical levels for the S&P500, you can see why we really are at the business end of things. ➤ There is time for the S&P500 to close above the monthly highs of recent months. That should cement the Bullish enthusiasm. If not, we will have to see if the market can do so at the end of February. ➤ Some selling came at the end of the session Friday. This may just be profit-taking but I can sense a certain hesitation since we are at key levels straddling 410 on the SPY. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: I'm hoping to get into the action with the expected volatility.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Week ahead 1/29/2023 The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US non-farm payrolls report are the most highly anticipated events in the US, as savvy investors like myself keep a close eye on the economy. The inflation numbers have shown signs of cooling, giving me hope that the Federal Reserve might slow down its monetary policy tightening with a modest 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Europe's central banks are expected to raise interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England leading the charge in their aggressive campaign against inflation. I'll also be following key reports on growth, inflation, and unemployment for the Euro Area , Germany , Italy , France , and Spain . Across the pond, China 's PMI data will be in the spotlight as the world watches the first gauge of the world's second-largest economy after the government transitioned away from its zero-Covid policy. In Japan , I'll be following consumer confidence figures, housing starts, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate. Down under, Australia will have a packed week with the Ai Group Manufacturing Index for January and retail sales, housing credit, and building permits for December. In New Zealand , I'll be following the December trade balance and fourth-quarter labor market figures. So, to summarize, here's what we have in store this week: US: Federal Reserve's interest rate decision US non-farm payrolls report ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs JOLTs Job Openings ADP private payrolls S&P Global PMIs Earnings season with prominent companies reporting (AMD, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Qualcomm) Europe: European Central Bank and Bank of England interest rate hike Eurozone inflation, growth, and unemployment reports Germany's prices and trade Euro Area business survey Switzerland's KOF leading indicators Turkey's inflation rate January's manufacturing and services PMIs Asia: China's PMI data Japan's consumer confidence, housing starts, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate India's Union Budget and January PMIs South Korea's inflation and trade data Australia and New Zealand: Ai Group Manufacturing Index and retail sales Housing credit, building permits, and trade balance Labor market figures
UShort
by TayFx
2
Irregular Expanded Flat on $SPXAs mentioned previously, this is my theory as of what is to come for the SPX. The fractal is from 2001-2003 as a similar bull trap had played out in the disguise of a "W" recovery or Inverse Head & Shoulders - whatever you wish to call it. I have also included the alternative, which invalidates the expanding flat corrective wave as per Elliott Wave Theory - closing above $4328. FED meeting next week will set the tone for what is to come for the market along with yet another rate hike. We also have several other giants who have yet to report earnings in the following few weeks. Trade safe out there! For reference: elliottwave-forecast.com
SP:SPXShort
by YoungSlav
2
S&P500 against VIX showing some bumpy road aheadThis is the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX). We've charted VIX's Cycles since June 2020 where the bottoms are in essence alarms and signals to be on the look out to sell and take profits on stocks while the tops are buy signals to enter the market. Based on that model, VIX appears to be entering the rising curve, meaning that a sell alarm is starting to ring. Given the fact that the price is approaching a Resistance level where it was rejected two times already, we may see a decent drop. If the drop isn't delivered and it was just the two day quick pull-back of January 18/19, then the Cycle pattern may start to invalidate the strong drops of the Bear Cycle and instead mimic the blue-print of the 2020 - 2021 small pull-backs. That would indicate that the Bear Cycle is over and that S&P500 has officially entered the new Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
SPX 2001-2003 FractalBearish convictions: -DXY (dollar index) is currently in a falling wedge (bullish) pattern sitting on very strong support around 100 -102. Furthermore, while the DXY took a sharp dive, we did not see so much of a reaction in the SPX and across other equity markets. -VIX (volatility index) is currently sitting at strong support around $18 - $20 with bullish divergence on MACD and RSI. -If the Feds even so much as to mention a hawkish word about raising interest rates higher than 5% - 5.25%. -Supreme Court will reconsider Biden Admin's student debt relief on February 28. This will decide whether student loans will resume 60 days after June 30th or not. -Resuming student loan payments, along with a softening housing market will reduce consumer spending growth on goods and services. This would be good for inflation but overall bad for equity markets as consumers would be less likely to invest. Not financial advice. Trade safely!
SP:SPXShort
by YoungSlav
2
The Last Chance Saloon, 27th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ It turns the Bulls were not very exhausted after yesterday's recovery. Equities burst higher but not before filling the opening gap. This is a good sign that move higher is supported. ➤ For the Bears out there, it is the last chance to hold out. Price is approaching a very significant technical level. Please refer to my interpretation on the monthly chart (see related Ideas) ➤ The important level is the 410-411 resistance zone. This has been the graveyard for many a Bullish move. The ability to close above it on a monthly basis would be very meaningful. This is also the last chance for the VIX to hold it's key level. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Don't get in the way of a Bull's run until it has run its race.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The Boy Who Cried Wolf, 26th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered after a very weak start to end the session flat. It was a case of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. ➤ This counts as the second time in recent days that equities has refused to fall when it ought have. The first cry was on 18th January. Despite the fall that day, equities recovered quickly unable to gain downside momentum. Today was the second cry but there was again no wolf. ➤ The price is still playing chicken with the 200-day moving average. Similar to what occurred during Nov/Dec 2022. Today, there was a lot of effort used to support the recovery. That recovery was only sufficient to break-even. Having spent all that energy, how much is there left in the tank? ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Fool me once, fool me twice...
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Pause, 25th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly weaker and traded in a narrow range (for once). There are a lot of games being played at the widely watched 200-day moving average that the S&P500 now sits. ➤ There's an overall contraction in the price swings in recent months due to the sideways moving market (since at least November 2022, stretching to May 2022). This flat-lining of movement is a process of building up energy for the next large directional move whatever that may be. ➤ Many people have observed the formation of the inverse head & shoulders chart pattern (a bullish formation). I'm not a big fan of these formations as they are unreliable but more so the construction of the current pattern looks "non-textbook" if I can put it politely. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Pause in the action but not for long. MrStocky The Professional Loss Maker
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Trader's Dilemma, 24th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another bullish day. Price has reversed the recent weakness and set a new short-term high. Yet, I'm not buying into it right now. Why? Well it's not because of my fundamentally (misplaced?) bearish view. I don't trade on those views. I trade by reading the short-term technicals. I'm completely agnostic when it comes to being long or short. ➤ Today there is no trade because I am faced with a Trader's Dilemma and it's forcing a strong debate within. ➤ The price setup is NOT something I've seen from years past (at least 13yrs in my data). It looks very much like a bullish continuation in the short-term but with bearish overtones too. If I went bullish, I would be using a max. position size. If bearish, half size. So, what's the optimal decision? If I had to force a trade, I would be a buyer. That means using max. risk on an untested trade set-up. Perhaps reducing the trade size is better? That would mean giving up on large profits knowing I'm more likely to be right than wrong. ➤ I've made my decision and have decided to restrain myself in making the trade because this trade set-up is "novel". In cricketing terms, I'm letting the ball "pass through to the keeper" and ignoring my greed for making money. At the end of the day, I'm not "forced" to make the trade. I can choose to not play. There's always another opportunity with a better set-up. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: What would be your decision if faced with this situation?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1