Apple Short?Apple is approaching historical resistance here. Earnings is coming up on the 4th of May and from what ive read about Mac sales being potentially down 40% will apple miss their earnings? thoughts?
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
VIX to breakOut on April 24th SPX Crashhello traders,
Get ready for Stock Market Crash - of 2023
#VIX is now on a major support and growing consistently,
on April 24th 2023, it will break out of resistance and shoot up,
Two more weeks of Bulls, then Stock Market CRASH on the week of April 24 2023.
I will be liquidating all my Long Trades, on the next two weeks, and opening more short positions.
Trade:
Safe
Carefully
Hedged
Good Luck and Good Profit
Edward Trader
#SPX500 #SP100 #NASDAQ
VIX Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 17.57.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 24.08.
P.S
Please, note that an overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
The Vix TrendThe Trend in the VIX
It appears the VIX is bouncing off its lower diagonal support. Historically the VIX does move in diagonals trends, even prior to this one.
This chart is self explanatory from a trading perspective.
- Double bounces off diagonal support have been good long entries.
- Within 1 - 4 weeks of the double bounces there has been large increases in volatility (150%+ moves). This one has capacity for a 60 - 80% move and your risk is 5% to the downside.
- The risk reward is reasonable if you are not using leverage or using low leverage (2x or 3x). In general just don't ever use leverage, trust me.
- If you are going to use leverage, which i don't recommend be careful and recognize and ensure that the the product on your chart is the same as on the platform you are using.
(There are multiple VIX products and they all move a little different). Also please ensure you weight your margin put down 2 :1 or 3:1 to give you ample room to avoid liquidation (stops don't always work on fast moves so we protect against that too).
- Honor the dashed orange line. Strength and Honor!!
- The orange dashed line means you are leaving with a small loss or your exiting the trade with at least 80% of your original position after making some nice profit. Any move higher than this will mean epic recession and whilst a recession is highly likely within the next 12-18 months, that's a long timeframe in a volatility trade....lets not put our emotions through that.
- I would hope that we would have some direction on this trade short term....within 4 to 8 weeks.
Major Caveat - I do not trade the VIX however I will trade this set up and I have been haunted this chart for some time.
I consider this a highly risky trade and I will only be putting down a small percentage of a percentage of my portfolio.
If you are unsure about this trade, please only place a small fraction of what your had already considered.
I could not pass up sharing this as it really does look like a reasonable risk to reward and there is a defined pattern from a TA perspective.
Good luck to you all
PUKA
Conspiracy or Real Move for BTC )?Quick Market outlook.
Here is another my idea about bright Future of BTC.
Covering it up from correlation with VIX, TD sequential Indicator and finally with Monthly pivots.
VIX at support Decent RR with the VIX in this area
Also at the support of the channel
Lets see if the earning will be a catalyst to the move up in the VIX
I Blinked First, 20 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Kind of like opposite day with today's price action acting in reverse of Tuesday. Again, tight ranging and finishing flat. Yesterday I posed the question: Who Blinks First? Alluding to the idea that there is a regime shift incoming that will determine a period of Bullish prosperity or a brutal Bearish collapse.
➤ Whilst it is way too early to come to a conclusion, I must admit I have blinked first in the favour of the Bulls by adding a small long position using the $SPY. Let me explain why...
➤ Recall that I posted a recent note introducing a secondary Trading strategy to compliment my primary source of return. The long SPY position is its debut. One of the key reasons for implementing the secondary strategy is that on average it has a much longer holding period. This is especially true in the case of a long/buy position.
➤ An achilles heal of my primary strategy is that it is very sensitive to price movement. Trends can be bumpy along the way meaning that it sometimes does not allow me to ride the full extent of a huge trend (up or down). My secondary strategy does a better job at that.
➤ With that in mind, today's buy reflects a potential extension of the current up trend for a while longer. If true, that would give the Bulls the opportunity to close April beyond the Feb 2023 high. In my past notes, I have discussed the importance of such a monthly close and how that favours a return of a long-term Bullish market environment.
➤ Clearly, my buy signal could be wrong and exited soon. However, that is the state of play as I see it and the month is nearing drawing to a rapid close.
➤ Despite the new buy, my overall long exposure is still small.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trust your signals, don't second guess.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
4-19-23 [spy]good afternoon,
been playing around with many variations of this count over these last few days, and i really like this one.
we call these "sharp double zig-zags" in my world, and they are designed for the sole purpose of squeezing out all the bears out of the bear market.
i have theorized for awhile that the spx would end up going back near ath before the next major leg down - and this is precisely how i think that happens.
-
Wave B target = HKEX:464
✌
VIX3M/VIX ratio just crossed 1.2VIX3M/VIX ratio just crossed 1.2 signaling the strong possibility of a trend reversal.
vix daily re-accumulation before 150% gains🔸Hello guys, today let's review daily chart for VIX . Entering re-accumulation stage now,
expecting range bound trading during summer time season. Pretty wide range as well,
lows near 13 and highs set at 20.
🔸Similar fractal observed during summer season in 2021. Faded into range after heavy spike,
re-accumulation then 150% pump later during autumn 2021.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: accumulate / buy VIX LEAP calls near range lows, once we
hit closer to 13, this is the perfect entry spot to profit from a new spike, which should come
during autumn season in 2023. Probably multiple buying opportunities near range lows
June through August 2023. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Stock Markets Trend Analysis - US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40By analysing the stock markets at different timeframes, ranging from the three-monthly chart down to a four-hour chart, I have noticed that they have reached a significant resistance level on several higher timeframes. Furthermore, on the lower timeframe, the trend seems to display indications of weakening, and the charts seem to be range-bound. Could this signify that a stock market selloff is looming? If it is, this will undoubtedly affect the currency markets. In the video we look at the following charts on multiple time frames: US30, US100, US500, UK100, GE40, VIX. I would like to clarify that this video is simply an observation and a sharing of my thoughts, and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
Volatility in decline - why the VIX index is so lowHaving only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really bite, earnings estimates are likely due to be revised lower, and Treasury yields curves are still deeply inverted.
It’s not just the fact we haven’t seen the S&P500 close 1% lower since 22 March (18 sessions), but we also see the 5-day (exponential) moving average of the high-low trading range for S&P500 futures at a meagre 41-points. This is not far off the lowest levels since 2011, so traders are getting less and to work with intraday.
There isn’t one reason for the lower vol, so I have put some views on the considerations I see as causing these calmer conditions. I am sure there are others, but these jump out.
1. S&P500 realised volatility is impacting the VIX index – we see that S&P500 10-day realised vol is now 8.2%, with S&P500 20-day realised vol at 11.7%% - both are the lowest levels since Nov 21 – options market makers will typically look at how volatility is realising as the basis for pricing implied volatility. The fact the S&P500 just refuses to fall has also limited the demand for downside hedges- hedges cost money.
2. CTAs (trend-following funds) have been getting progressively longer and their estimated net exposure is ‘max long’ US S&P500 futures. Volatility-targeting hedge funds are adding equity exposure as equity realised vol falls – lower vol begets lower vol.
3. Why sell your equity longs? Funds are taking advantage of the grinding price action in stocks and selling S&P500 index calls and using the premium to buy OTM (out of the money) S&P puts – this means they can essentially hold their core equity holdings and utilise optionality with a cheap/free hedge.
4. Reduced interest rate risk – the Fed are now fully data dependent and the market prices a 25bp hike in May, with an extended pause through to November – with a far more normal distribution in the skew of expectations for bond price/yields (i.e. yields could go either way and not just higher), we’ve seen bond vol (we use the MOVE index) fall from the highs on 15 March. Probable lengthy inaction from the Fed has lowered volatility.
5. A weaker USD has helped lower broad market volatility - The USD index (DXY) fell 4.8% from 8 March to 14 April – in that time the VIX index fell 9 vols from 26% to 17%
6. The Fed’s response to managing instability risk through the rollout of emergency credit facilities was truly meaningful – the market is becoming comfortable that there will be consolidation in the US banking sector ahead of us, but the Fed has cut the systemic event risk.
7. Increased liquidity - Reserve balances held with the Fed are +12% since March. We also see that since January the TGA (Treasury General Account) has been drawn down by $450B to sit at $109B.
8. Corporate share buybacks authorisation hit a new record and nears $400b – companies are the biggest buyers of stocks, and this is suppressing vol.
9. BoJ gov Ueda said on 10 April that YCC is still the best policy for the current economy – the has reduced JGB and JPY implied vol, which again has spilt over into G10 FX volatility.
10. The Fed funds rate was hiked aggressively from 0.25% to 5% - Yet while the US real policy rate (fed funds adjusted for headline CPI) has moved from -8% to -0.2%, it is still negative and to some that are not restrictive enough.
11. The rise of 0DTE (days to expiry) options – fewer traders are trading 20–40-day expiries and the volume in ultra-short-term options means we see less volume in the strikes that feed the VIX calculation.
Trading Strategy – traders adapt their strategy to lower volatility and range compression. Recognising the market environment is pivotal for day traders – this means understanding if it’s a range/mean reverting session or more of a trending and possible momentum day. We can see that when the close-to-close percentage changes are low, and the trading ranges are compressing mean reversion strategies are preferred. Traders are selling strength intraday and buying weakness.
What changes this low-vol regime?
If we knew then everyone would be buying volatility – we can look at the known risks and anticipate, but we wait for the market to react and show it is now a factor – being early can hurt. To cause a material drawdown in risk and higher vol I think it must stem from liquidity. While we can’t rule out a renewed move to hike interest rates, I see the debt ceiling as a real risk – not because the US govt is going to miss a debt payment and technically default; the probability of that is incredibly low. But the actual negative event may come from once we see it resolved and the US Treasury aggressively rebuilds the TGA, and issues close to a $1t of short-term US Bills – this will act as a massive liquidity drain and QT on steroids. This comes at a time when the US could be moving into recession and the ECB balance sheet will be falling faster. A scenario many are starting to look at very closely now as liquidity is the oxygen in the market's lungs.
Who Blinks First? 19 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days.
➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps from day to day. A sign of excitement and enthusiasm. In recent days, we see the complete contrast with hesitative small daily moves creeping higher each day.
➤ With my best "tape" reading glasses on, I still cannot decipher which binary outcome it will be: Re-acceleration upwards explained by an upward accumulation phase or a Bearish trend reversal explained by the tiring progress into key resistance levels. Only one outcome can be true.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Who will blink first?
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
Lost VIX support, what does the history suggest?Since 2000 we've lost this support 3 times, in all of these cases after closing below a spike up followed (on monthly). Let's see what happens this time, looking for a close above the red line in order to have confirmed signal.
Price Projections, 18 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher?
➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman Bogomazov and Bruce Fraser at Wyckoff Analytics. Although I only apply some minor elements of Wyckoff philosophy in my trading strategy, it was a transformative educational experience that opened my mind to the inner workings of the market.
➤ The reason why I bring up Wyckoff is that the methodology does incorporate a price projection element using the "point & figure" chart. This chart is "old school" in that is was predominantly used by Traders in the physical trading pits at exchanges. It simplifies a messy chart by displaying price action in terms of movement rather by chronological time.
➤ So let's play around with the price projection. I used the Dec 2022 consolidation to calibrate the inputs and it gave me a price of 411.5 for the SPY. This is the projection from the Mar 2023 low. Obviously we have already met that target. In the Dec example, the price did spike a few points higher than the projection prior to actual price reversal in Feb 2023. We should apply the same leeway. Coincidentally that would allow the price to peak around 415-418 near the Feb 2023 high - an obvious point for a reversal.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Let's see if the price is about to peak as suggested.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
No Fear On Vix Is Not Good For StocksImagine USD recovery, and "no fear" on VIX at the same time Not good combination for stocks IMO, especially when looking the extremes of 2022-2023 range.
Calls at the extreme may not be a good thing.
🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨
Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market.
Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market.
💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator
Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:
If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend.
If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment.
It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics.
💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies
Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022.
💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator
In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction.
CONCLUSION :
The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape.
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Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further:
Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends.
Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally
In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market.
Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound
In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market.
Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally
In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500.
These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities.
Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
The VIX Collapse, 17 Apr 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean.
➤ A quick round up of other markets is warranted as we are sitting at interesting levels in many instances in their respective timeframes:
⦿ USD (daily): New low set, testing the breakdown. A successful test should see further weakening
⦿ TLT (weekly): Range bound. The bounce off the low looks corrective, the long-term downtrend is favoured
⦿ GOLD (daily): Choppy 2 steps up 1 step down but the uptrend is firmly entranched. I expect all time highs.
⦿ NATGAS (weekly): Testing resistance level. Unsuccessful so far. I expect further weakness if the test fails
⦿ OIL (3-day): Another week of gains would strengthen the bullish case with a Change of Behaviour, the first step for a true trend change
⦿ BTC (weekly): Testing long-term resistance. We may see some profit taking but the new bull trend is firmly in place.
➤ I have reduced my long equity positioning to minimum sizing to reflect a lower conviction on the short-term price movement.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Big flood of earnings should provide insight into further market direction.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
VIX broke 5yr old trend lineThe week hasn't ended yet, but it seems quite clear that we broke a 5 year old trend line to the down side.
This may very well implicate that we will NOT get a major crash (this year) and the SPY will rise further.
The other scenario is that this is a MAJOR TRAP.
But then the VIX will have to reverse within the next 1 to 2 weeks.
👀 A REGIME SHIFT?As you know, I'm a big fan of the VIX (aka Equity Fear index). It shows the 30-day expected volatility of the US equity market dervied from participants in the options market. The idea is that sophisticated investors tend to use options for hedging out risks.
Below I show a long-term chart of the VIX in relation to the S&P500. Sorry for making you squint but you should get my point without all the tiny details.
In equity markets, we basically see three regimes that dominate.
➊ Low volatility (in the middle of the chart) where the VIX is relatively low e.g < 17. Although there are periods of "fear" and spikes in the VIX, none is really consequential and we have a gradual slightly bumpy increase in equity prices.
➋ Hightened volatility (e.g VIX > 17) where the VIX stays heightened due to some underlying unease with the economy. This is reflected by larger swings up and down as Investors are more swayed by sentiment shifts. Usually we see side-ways moving action.
❸ Panic and Collapse of the VIX where it spikes significantly due to wide-spread fear followed by a sharp drop in the VIX as fear subsides. We see the huge sell-off and subsequent accelerated increase in equity prices
❓The reason why I bring up this topic is that I detect a binary shift. Currently we are in state ➋, a heighteneed volatility regime. With the recent drop in the VIX are we moving to ➊? A low volatility regime and therefore a bull market? or we have yet to experience ❸, the build up to a true panic event with the recent banking crisis being a warm-up.
➼ A state of heightened period of volatility (➋) usually doesn't last long. It is the holding pattern that gives way to ➊ or ❸. This is a binary outcome and that is why market sentiment is all over the place. This unease will resolve itself soon!
⭕️ In my opinion, there's no hurry to "bet the house" on either outcome. There's plenty of money to be made once the market has decided.
🐆 MrStocky
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
Mastering the VIX on TradingViewThe VIX, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index, is a widely-used financial instrument used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. In this article, we will explore how to use the VIX on TradingView to improve your trading strategies.
Before we dive into how to use the VIX, let's first understand what it is and how it works. The VIX is based on the S&P 500 index options, and measures the implied volatility of those options over the next 30 days. Essentially, the VIX provides a gauge of how much the market is expected to move over the next month.
Now, let's discuss how to use the VIX on TradingView. To begin, open up the TradingView platform and search for the VIX symbol, which is typically denoted as VIX. Once you have located the VIX, add it to your watchlist and open up the chart.
On the chart, you will notice that the VIX moves inversely to the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 goes down, the VIX goes up, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Conversely, when the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down, indicating that market volatility is decreasing.
So how can we use the VIX to improve our trading strategies? One strategy is to use the VIX as a hedging tool. For example, if you have a portfolio of stocks and are concerned about a potential market downturn, you could buy the VIX to protect yourself against losses. This is because the VIX tends to increase in value when the market is experiencing volatility.
Another way to use the VIX is as a contrarian indicator. When the VIX is at a very low level, it may indicate that investors are overly complacent and that the market may be due for a correction. On the other hand, when the VIX is at a very high level, it may indicate that investors are overly fearful and that the market may be due for a rebound.
In conclusion, the VIX is a powerful tool that can be used to measure market volatility and investor sentiment. By understanding how the VIX works and using it in conjunction with other technical indicators, you can improve your trading strategies and better navigate the unpredictable world of finance. Remember, always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days.
*The orange line represents SPX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
