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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment. Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid: Dot Com s3.tradingview.com 2008 With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period. Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event. Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
TVC:US10Y
by EdwinPus
VIX Will Move Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for VIX. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 13.09. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 15.72 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:VIXLong
by SignalProvider
4
CRASH SIGNAL the ABC rally has ended or 1 lastThe chart posted is the qqq but sp 500 the same I had the alt target to peak at 381.6 so far 381.1 we could pop but for trading puts not an issue I have move to 85 % net long PUTS a CRASH is about to start min downside is 345/336 sp should see min 4310 /4230 on this drop the vix will see a move well above the last high even the min alt is 19.88 and TNX hit the target of 40.66 rates to soar the DXY is on its way to 105.1 to 106.3 Best of trades WAVETIMER
NASDAQ:QQQ
by wavetimer
Using $VIX to measure Volatility in $SPY I'm sure many of you already know TVC:VIX (Volatility Index of the S&P 500) correlates to AMEX:SPY (the S&P 500 micro index). For those who don't and those who do, this is my up to date VIX chart. Please comment what you think! But the general idea is that... When TVC:VIX goes up, AMEX:SPY goes down When TVC:VIX goes down, AMEX:SPY goes up This is just one of the many comparisons I take into account when trying to gain a sense of market structure. Never use just one indication or signal to determine a trade. I also like to look at AMEX:SPY vs TVC:DXY (US Dollar). The general idea is that... When TVC:DXY goes up, AMEX:SPY / stocks go down When TVC:DXY goes down, AMEX:SPY / stocks go up Again, its important to have multiple things indicating the SAME signal offering high conviction trade ideas. And these "ideas" should be thought of in a way of PROBABILITIES not PREDICTIONS with a predetermined set stop-loss and profit target. Pay attention to market events and released data, especially the TIME those data reports come out. I honestly look at AMEX:SPY and TVC:VIX multiple times throughout the week, I do not have them side-by-side during my active trading as they don't perfectly mirror each other on any time frame. It's meant more for a larger timeframe (1H or higher) outlook and trying to gain a broader sense of sentiment in the market. On that note.. Happy Trading !! - E TVC:VIX AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY
TVC:VIXEducation
by EBMVI610
Volatility heads up given - watch this one!This is the VXX (VIX ETN) and can be used as an indicative heads up to the equity market volatility. We are now at a rather unique point where the rubber band has been stretched so far, and at a point where you can just feel the tremor of it about to snap… The daily chart of the VXX has been falling over the months, and in recent weeks, there is a long term MACD divergence that has not been sorted. This happened as the equity markets pushed much further up. This week saw a quick retracement and the VXX acted accordingly. The thing here is that this time, the VolDiv indicator got aligned. With these two aligned and about to break up into bullish territory (above zero), it give good heads up that a volatility spike is about to happen. Concomitant to the equity indexes falling off the cliff. It does not look like it will happen in the immediate term, but within weeks to come IMHO.
CBOE:VXXLong
by Auguraltrader
U.S Dollar Fundamental Analysis for Fri Aug 18th, 2023The dollar index eased to around 103.2 on Friday but was still on track to advance for the fifth straight week, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that policymakers stressed that upside risks to inflation remain, leaving the door open to further policy tightening. However, some participants flagged the economic risks of pushing rates too far, emphasizing that future rate decisions would depend on incoming data. The latest data also showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market. The dollar is set to gain against most major currencies this week but remains down against sterling as key measures of price growth monitored by the Bank of England failed to ease in July. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 4.22% on Friday after rising to as high as 4.328% in the previous session, the highest since October 2022 and just a tad below its highest level since 2007. The fluctuation is due to investor concerns about the economic impact of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from July highlighted that there are still risks of higher inflation, suggesting the possibility of more tightening of monetary policy. Despite recent data indicating a decrease in inflationary pressures, a strong US economy and a robust job market are reasons supporting the continuation of high interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped by 13 basis points from the previous week to 7.09%, the highest since 2002, as the hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.13%. "The economy continues to do better than expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved up, causing mortgage rates to climb," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. "The last time the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded seven percent was last November. Demand has been impacted by affordability headwinds, but low inventory remains the root cause of stalling home sales." Source: Freddie Mac
TVC:DXYLong
by TayFx
Yield on puts options doesnt compensate riskVix is price of call and put 'at the money" annualized. the current vix yield cut in have gives us an estimate of downside premium put sellers collect and buyers are paying. its near 8%. its probably less because there is a slight upward skew. In the last 20 years, there have been times when vix has spiked very high and this "put yield" has been roughly 40% for the downside premium yield. High vix premium is correlated more often with fear to the downside than fear to the upside. Some of you may remember what happened in 2018 when too many put sellers got caught short puts and volatility repriced. they called that one "Volmageddon". volmageddon article here regarding xiv etn blow up: www.ft.com Just be aware that puts selling isnt free money, and sometimes the juice isnt worth the squeeze. Know what you own and be willing to own or get paid to own it at your strikes.
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
1
Here's my line. When pullback bottom is confirmed, re-enter.Traders, It's been a few weeks since I have done a video update. Hopefully, you all have been following my non-video posts too. I have been making regular posts in attempts to keep you all up to speed on the latest market price action. In this video, I will show you the line that caused me to sell. This does not mean I have now gone bearish on the market. On the contrary, I am still overall bullish longer term. However, the market is definitely experiencing a bit of a pullback here due to some new inflation data causing more uncertainty. Once this pullback has confirmed a bottom, I will once again look to re-enter my longs. I will show you some of the levels I am targeting on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple near the end of the video. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
6
VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possibleSince our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
13
Bitcoin's Bull Flags have completed to resistanceTraders, If you follow me elsewhere, you already know that I have unloaded the majority of my trades today. I will let you know more specifically what I am seeing in Friday's weekly update. But for now, in short, I want to point out that Bitcoin has been following all the technical indicators and rules like a champ. There is no reason for me to doubt that it will not continue to do so now. In that regards, I must point out that after breaking out of its bullish triangle and bull flag on the daily RSI as expected, Bitcoin has met its target, the 50 day ma which intersects with a major level making this a very strong resistance area of confluence. Will we drop significantly from here? Maybe. Maybe not? There remains a lot of good support on the underside of current price of which includes that 200 day ma being right in line with the RED ascending channel. It would take a significant bear movement to break these supports, but if we did, there are still two very significant descending TLs which will also become support. The probability remains a price above 27,000 but that is only if you focus on this chart. Zooming out there are a few other charts I have been focusing on strongly, the VIX and the SPY. The VIX shows a spike in fear which has detached price from previously being range bound. Along with the VIX being up the dollar has been up and this usually means that stocks will be down. Looking then at the SPY which tracks the S&P500 market here in the U.S. you can see that the SPY has indeed dropped back down into its ascending triangle (bearish) and channel up (long term bearish) which is leading us to our blow-off top. The SPY could drop to the bottom of that channel before continuing its one last final ascent into irrational market pricing and trajectory. What comes after this does not look great for our macro-economy either here in the U.S. or globally. But unless something hugely positive occurs geopolitically and globally (aliens drop lambos, yachts, and gold chains from their UFOs or something like it), we will be in trouble by mid-2024. For the moment however, we are still doing the blow-off top thing in U.S. stocks, it's just that it's looking like there might be a bit of a pullback for a few days/weeks before this continuation occurs. This may pull Bitcoin down with it a bit, though, I don't know that Bitcoin will descend as rapidly as the SPY and other indexes this time around. Stay tuned, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus