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Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPY My short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated. MS

Short

03:21

Updated

The RBA just made a small (but big) change to their statement The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, but there were several changes to their December statement which warrant a closer look. I highlight the key differences to the November statement and provide my interpretation of what it means for the RBA's policy as we head into next year, then look at AUD/USD. MS

04:19

Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why. MS.

Short

03:55

Oil is staring down the barrel of a bearish breakdown A stronger USD, prospects of a deregulated oil market alongside disappointment with China stimulus and weighed on crude prices on Monday. WTI is toying with a bearish breakout of a pattern which projects a downside target around the mid 50s. But how realistic is that? Let's take a look. MS.

Short

04:26

AUD/JPY swept higher in red wave Wednesday's risk-on session played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls thanks to a broadly weaker yen. We're eyeing a continuation towards 103, although an initial pullback may be preferred depending on which timeframe we look at. MS

Long

03:19

Elections aside, AUD/USD still looks oversold Implied volatility has spiked for FX majors ahead of the US election, and it really could go either way for AUD/USD depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. But how much downside is left for the Aussie when taking market positioning, China data and the latest RBA statement into account? MS

Long

06:23

How key markets have performed either side of a US election I wanted to see how major markets have performed in the days before, during and after US elections. So I coded up a new spreadsheet. Here are the results... Please note: - Price data supplied by Refinitiv - Most markets go back 8 elections - US futures and VIX are the exception, which go back 6 elections MS

07:55

Analysis autopsy: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, WTI, SPI 200 Today I take a look at some recent ideas to see how they played out, then reassess them on the live charts to see if they're still worth keeping an eye on. Charts include AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, SPI 200 and WTI. MS

07:23

WTI crude hints at cheeky bounce to $72 WTI has fallen over 11% in seven days, and the loss of momentum around $70 could appeal to bullish swing traders. We're not looking for anything heroic here given the mixed signals on futures positioning, but it might be able to deliver a cheeky bounce higher over the near term. MS.

Long

02:33

Nasdaq looks to close the gap with its Wall Street peers The Dow and S&P 500 extended their record highs on Monday, and the Nasdaq futures looks eager to jump out the gate during Asian trade and close the gap. And with asset managers increasing bullish bets on the tech-focused market, perhaps it can make a record high of its own. MS

Long

02:11

The dollar surge takes a breather, pullback pending?We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold. MS.

05:20

Why the US dollar bear should tread with care The USD saw a sharp reversal higher despite a 50bp cut, simply because the markets were positioned for a more dovish dot plot. I have argued in prior analysis the USD exposure is a bit stretched over the near-term, so perhaps shorting the USD is getting a bit stale. We also have several key markets at inflection points after a risk event. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.

06:15

Bitcoin still looks good above 55k for bulls Matt takes another look at Bitcoin futures to update his analysis from last week, which seems to be playing nicely with his view that it is trying to carve out a swing low on the daily chart and muster up the strength for a rally.

Long

03:49

Bears wade into crude oil futures: CL1!An influx of short bets against WTI crude oil futures is behind the recent leg lower for oil prices. But having already fallen nearly 14% over eight days, bears may want to tread carefully with a fresh catalyst. Matt Simpson takes a look at the weekly, daily and 4-hour chart alongside large speculative positioning.

04:47

Why bitcoin is gaining our bullish interest Looking at Bitcoin futures and how real-money accounts are positioned, a larger move higher could be brewing. But first, a nice setup could also be forming on the daily chart for a cheeky swing higher, if nothing else.

Long

03:04

Gold, copper, silver: A hard or soft-landing conundrum Metals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.

04:40

EUR/USD to tag 1.11 before its next leg lower?It is good to finally see the USD strength we were calling for finally come into play. It may have a little further to run, which could see further downside on the weekly chart for EUR/USD. But first, we look at a potential long on the daily and 4-hour chart, taking the weekly analysis into account.

02:43

SP500 seasonality and market positioning are at odds On one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it. MS

Long

04:32

USD/JPY could be at the early stages of a rebound Picking inflection points is not for everyone. But taking into account the two months of heavy USD selling, disapproval of a 'strong yen' from the BOJ and arguably oversold USD/JPY, perhaps some bullish mean reversion is due. We take a look at the monthly, daily and 4-hour charts to show key levels.

Long

03:08

USD bears! Markets don't move in a straight line (forever)We stand back to admire the long-term chart of the US dollar index, and yes there could be further downside over the coming weeks. But a quick check on the daily timeframe makes us wary of jumping into an already well-established short, given potential support levels nearby and the fact everyone and their dogs seem to be bearish the dollar.

04:04

Why the 'record high' on Dow Jones underwhelms...Another day, another record high for a US stock market. Only the one seen on the Dow Jones underwhelms given it is not backed up by its own futures market, let alone its peers. We're also approaching end-of-month flows (which can prompt fickle price action). And keep an eye on the Nvidia earnings report on Wednesday (US) which can single-handedly drive sentiment on Wall Street.

03:29

Is the USD selloff too aggressive? Bond yields suggest so Traders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.

Long

02:15

ASX 200 mimics Wall Street's 'risk-on' rally into Jackson Hole Overbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' tale, traders may need to factor in some of the overbought clues on the daily chart.

Short

04:49

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