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Usoilshort

Crude oil market analysisMarket performance Freight rates rose in March and calmed down in May. In June, freight rates from the Middle East to China fell by 0.5 yuan month-on-month. July was also sluggish. At the same time, the gross profit margin of refining fell by 10-30% year-on-year, affecting the enthusiasm of refineries to purchase crude oil. Market risk analysis The US election may affect energy policy. The Democratic and Republican parties have different energy policies. In addition, the US Meteorological Corporation predicts that there will be 25 storms in the Atlantic this year, which may affect oil production and transportation To sum up, my personal analysis shows that the crude oil market will remain low in the second half of the year.
TVC:USOIL
by David_strategy
Oil prices can still be shorted at around 77 to make a profit. The overall trend of oil shows the closing stage of the arc top. There are still some opportunities for decline to short the oil price to make a profit. I am EDDY. Senior Financial Analysis Consultant. I have experienced the financial crisis, the stock market crash, and the market circuit breaker. The current trading opportunities in the market are much better than before. There are many trading opportunities every day. I have been observing investors in the market for a while. I can't bear to see some people in the market continue to lose money because they don't know how to trade. So I plan to continue to share my operating ideas for a while for your reference. If you are still confused about the trading market, you can continue to pay attention to my updates.
TVC:USOILShort
by Eddy_Wealth
USOIL: Trend Analysis and Trading StrategiesCrude oil technical analysis Daily resistance 83.4, support below 79 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 81.3-80 Crude oil operation suggestions: Last Friday, the overall oil price fell first and then rose, breaking through the 82.7 mark, and then fell back and bottomed out, breaking through the 81 mark and closing weakly. The overall price showed a fluctuating upward rhythm. Today, the lower support continues to focus on the low point of 81 last Friday, and the upper pressure focuses on the vicinity of 82.5-82.7. If the upper 83.4 is not broken, continue to see the oscillation operation first, and if 83.4 is broken, the bulls will start SELL:82.0near SL:82.40 SELL:83.4near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
USOIL, sell high and buy low to participateTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 79 Four-hour resistance 81, support below 80-78.5 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil 4-hour chart is still shrinking and consolidating, and short-term contraction and shock are waiting to accumulate momentum to open up space. In the short term, there is still an expectation of further downward adjustment. Today's upper resistance focuses on the opening of yesterday's hourly line around 81.3-81.5. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to look down with the main short. The short-term support below focuses on 79.7-79.5. The European and American markets stabilize at this position once more and then look at shocks and rebounds. Sell high and buy low (At the same time, beware of the technical changes and there is also a warning of a sharp drop and wash) SELL:80.7near SL:81.10 SELL:82.0near SL:82.40 SELL:83.4near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
Crude Oil Market Analysis and Trading SignalsTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 83.4, support below 77.5 Four-hour resistance 82, support below 80.7-79 Crude oil operation suggestions: After a bottom rebound in the daily chart of crude oil, the upward momentum has slowed down. Short-term is accompanied by a second roundabout retracement confirmation. The daily chart uses the middle track as the support point. Go long after the retracement confirmation. Today's lower support continues to focus on yesterday's hourly neckline support of 80.5. Relying on this position, the main bullish trend remains unchanged. The upper target is still near the daily pressure of 83.4. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 80.7 mark. If the daily level stands firm at this position. Continue to follow the trend and do more. Short selling can participate near the daily resistance of 83.4. (At the same time, beware of trend changes, and there is also a warning of a sharp drop in the technical side) SELL:80.7near SL:81.10 SELL:82.0near SL:82.40 SELL:83.4near SL:83.70 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
OIL: Operation in the range of 77~80Crude Oil Technical Analysis Daily resistance is 80-83.4, support below is 77-75 Four-hour resistance is 80, support below is 77.8 Crude oil operation advice: Yesterday, crude oil experienced a strong bullish rise around the 77.5 mark. In the Asian and European markets, the price slightly stepped back to test and stabilized at the 77.5 mark, ushering in a rebound. The European market rose slightly and broke through the 78 mark, falling into sideways fluctuations. After the US Bulls continued to work hard during the session, and the hourly line continued to rise and broke through and stood at the 79 mark, and continued to rise to close strongly near the 80 mark. After the overall price fluctuated around the 77 mark for nearly 4 trading days, the bulls broke through. In the short term, the oil price stood above the 79 mark and entered the bullish rebound cycle again. Today's lower support focuses on the neckline of yesterday's hourly line near 78.5-78.7. The intraday retracement relies on this position to continue to be bullish. The upper target continues to focus on breaking highs. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line focuses on the 77 mark. Any retracement before the daily level falls below this position is a long opportunity. BUY: 78.4 near SL: 78.00 BUY: 77.8 near SL: 77.50 SELL: 80.0 near SL: 80.50 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by ActuaryJ
Crude oil is trading in a range, with a focus on 73.8~76.5Technical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 78.4, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 76, support below 75-73.8 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil fell first and then rose last week. The weekly line is in a wide range of fluctuations, and there is no strong unilateral trend. In the form of repeated tug-of-war between long and short positions, pay attention to the support of the low point of 73.80 this week. If it holds, it will continue to be bullish. The overall price shows a rhythm of long and short narrow fluctuations. Although the daily level has experienced two consecutive positive fluctuations and rebounded, the overall technical indicators are still in a short position. The upper side is still facing the pressure of the 76.5 mark. Today's rebound relies on the 76.5 line to continue to be short first. The short-term support below focuses on the vicinity of 74.3-74.5. Today, we will rely on this range to maintain the rhythm of fluctuations and sell high and buy low. SELL:76.0 near SL:76.50 BUY:73.8 near SL:73.40 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOT
by ActuaryJ
USOIL - Summer demand expectations are supporting pricesReuters stated that the Fed has raised hobby prices sharply in 2022 and 2023 to minimize growing inflation. Rising borrowing fees for customers and corporations ought to gradual financial boom and decrease oil call for. Meanwhile, a robust dollar ought to hose down oil call for via way of means of making greenback-denominated commodities like oil extra costly for holders of different currencies. Commenting at the surprising acceleration in oil costs, analysts at strength consulting company Gelber and Associates stated summer time season call for expectancies are helping costs. Goldman Sachs analysts stated they anticipate Brent oil costs to upward thrust to $86/barrel withinside the 0.33 quarter. In their report, those analysts stated that strong summer time season transportation call for will push the oil marketplace right into a deficit of 1.three million barrels in step with day withinside the 0.33 quarter. Oil costs rose regardless of the greenback growing to a four-week excessive following a pointy decline withinside the euro. Last week, oil costs fell for the 0.33 consecutive week because of worries that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies` (OPEC+) plan to boost a few manufacturing cuts from October might similarly growth supply. Investor interest is presently turning to US purchaser charge index records for May to be launched on June 12, searching out suggestions approximately whilst the Fed can also additionally begin decreasing hobby prices. The marketplace is additionally "waiting" for the consequences of the Fed's two-day coverage assembly beginning on June 12 with the expectancy that americaA Central Bank will preserve hobby prices stable. The marketplace has tempered expectancies for a Fed charge reduce in September following jobs boom records launched ultimate week. According to records from LSEG Financial Company, buyers additionally diminished expectancies approximately the extent of Fed easing this year, with handiest one hobby charge reduce.
TVC:USOILShort
by TheLeader_WOLF
USOIL ANALYSIS (SHORT) (11/06/24)Pretty self explanatory and simple. Using the bias (Bearish) I simply mapped out the last area which created a significant break. Within this area - price should gear towards the demand zone below - however I do acknowledge that price had already reached demand in an earlier period and therefore if price breaks through the POI (For which there will be potential to do so - due to upper imbalance found on a bigger TF), I would seek for an entry point allowing me to ride out the buy.
TVC:USOILShort
by saintprincevvs
Crude oil continues to bearish pressureTechnical analysis of crude oil Daily resistance 74.2, support below 72.7 Four-hour resistance 73.7-74.2, support below 72-71 Crude oil operation suggestions: Crude oil continued the recent extremely weak short-term unilateral downward rhythm yesterday, with the Asian and European sessions showing a downward trend, and the US session suppressed and fluctuated below the 73.5 mark. The overall price continued the recent unilateral short-term downward rhythm. Today's upper resistance is around 73.7-74.2. Today's rebound relies on this position to continue the main short-term bearish trend. The short-term oil price short-term weak dividing line focuses on the 74.2 mark. Any rebound before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position is a short-selling opportunity, and keep trading with the trend. SELL:74.2 near SL:74.50 SELL:73.7 near SL:74.20 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by ActuaryJ
World oil prices are in the process of accumulationWorld oil fees extended 2% at the buying and selling consultation on June 6, after the European Central Bank (ECB) determined to reduce hobby fees, elevating hopes that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) will comparable action. Meanwhile, ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, reassured traders that the ultra-modern oil output settlement should alternate relying at the situation. into the marketplace. At the quit of this consultation, Brent North Sea crude oil charge extended through 1.forty six USD, equal to 1.86%, to 79.87 USD/barrel. The charge of US mild candy oil (WTI) extended through 1.forty eight USD, equal to 2%, to 75.fifty five USD/barrel. On June 6, the ECB carried out the primary hobby charge reduce on account that 2019, mentioning development in pushing lower back inflation, however caution of inflationary strain withinside the Copper Area. Euro (Eurozone) continues. Specifically, the ECB diminished hobby fees through 25 foundation points, to 3.75%, after maintaining hobby fees unchanged from October 2023. Lower gas charges and easing post-pandemic deliver constraints have helped push inflation right all the way down to 2.6% withinside the 20 nations that use the euro, from 10% on the quit of 2022. Investors are actually much less sure than they had been some weeks in the past that inflation has fallen sufficient for the ECB to adopt a large-scale economic coverage easing cycle. In americaA, economists expect the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September 2024. The range of Americans submitting preliminary unemployment claims rose closing week and hard work charges rose much less withinside the first area of 2024 than forecast, the Labor Department stated. While this indicates americaA hard work marketplace is cooling, it's miles not going to spark off the Fed to begin slicing hobby fees. Meanwhile, buying and selling company Trafigura`s leader economist Saad Rahim stated OPEC+'s choice to steadily raise a few manufacturing cuts, blended with sturdy gas supplies, had driven oil fees down. reduced withinside the beyond few sessions. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated on June 6 that OPEC+ should pause or opposite the growth in manufacturing if it reveals that the marketplace isn't sturdy sufficient./.
TVC:USOILLong
by Chart_MasterPro
USOIL SHORT The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70. 101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day. By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied. Highlights Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices. Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available. - --------------- **First Scenario - Long:** Initial Target: $80.90 Entry: $79.08 Stoploss: $77.47 **Second Scenario - Short:** Initial Target: $74 Entry: $78.34 Stoploss: $79.2 - --------------- After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data) - --------------- Take into consideration: It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant. - --------------- NFA DYOR - --------------- Good Luck! ⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
TVC:USOILShort
by irfanp056
1
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices. A New Reality Sets In For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts. In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production. Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams. A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances. Uncertainties Remain While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry. A Reshaped Oil Market The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies. Looking Ahead The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years. Conclusion OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln