Counter Trend Trade IdeasWill This Head & Shoulder Pattern work on USOIL's chart? Not a trade idea.
If Closes above 74.5 its inverse H&S pattern but on wrong trend.
Usoilanalysis
USOIL: Key position 73-73.4
USOIL is currently near the key resistance level. If it can break through here, it will have the opportunity to form a head and shoulders bottom pattern, and then there is a high probability of reaching around 76.
But if there is no strong breakthrough here, the head and shoulders pattern will fail, and it is highly likely that the support near 72 will be backtested.
Therefore, in the trading starting tomorrow, you can focus on the resistance near 73-73.4 and decide the trading direction based on the breakthrough.
On the 45m chart, the pattern is slightly in favor of the bears, looking ahead to Monday’s market options.
If you encounter problems during transactions, you can leave me a message!
Good luck, everyone!
Thursday:Crude oil narrowed and fluctuated Oil prices fell in volatile trading on Thursday as U.S. crude inventories exceeded expectations and concerns about the Red Sea crisis eased. Crude oil's Xiaoyin cross K-line retraced yesterday and settled flat. In line with the rebound of the previous day's big Yang line, it did not make a further strong reversal upward, but went back down. At present, the daily line is still rebounding based on 69.30 as the bottom. If it does not fall below 69.30 in the short term, it will tend to rebound first. Let’s see if it can start a steady rise today. In the 4-hour chart, a wave of decline gave up nearly half of the previous gains. It is currently in the process of confirming the retracement. Bollinger Bands closed, the short-term entered a contraction and shock, and the long-short tug-of-war switched. It is not a strong unilateral market. After the second retracement, pay attention to whether it can start a stable recovery above the low point. If it starts to stabilize, continue to watch the rebound. Of course, the process will still oscillate repeatedly. For short-term operations, set the time point after the European market, and the final market shape shall prevail. Use the intraday form stuck point to respond flexibly in the ultra-short term. On the whole, it is suggested that the day-to-day operation of crude oil should focus on the first-line resistance of 74.0-75.0 at the top and the first-line support of 71.0-70.0 at the bottom.
Strategy reference: It is recommended to enter the market with multiple orders at 72.2-72.4, plan in advance, and pay attention to updates for more signals↓
Thursday: Crude Oil Market Analysis and StrategyOil prices rose in Asia on Thursday, with WTI oil prices hovering around 73.6. Disruptions in Libya's top oil fields heightened concerns that rising tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies, and international crude oil prices climbed about 3%. The two crude oil benchmark prices closed higher for the first time in five days, with WTI crude oil rising the most since mid-November. Later on Thursday, U.S. ADP employment changes and weekly initial jobless claims will be released. Traders will take more clues from U.S. employment data on Friday, including non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings due on Friday. The daily line of crude oil closed with the Zhongyang line with a long lower shadow, and there is a high possibility of stopping the decline in the short term. The 1-hour cycle has entered the early transaction intensive area, there is the possibility of a small cycle reversal, and there is a high probability of rising within the day. It is recommended to pay attention to the first-line support of $72.20 below.
Strategy reference: It is recommended to enter the market with long orders at 72.2-72.4
This is a plan ahead, more strategies are waiting for updates👇
$USO looks like a great shortJust like everyone think GOLD is going higher, people are overly bullish oil because of the war, blah blah, *insert your fundamental bias here.*
The reality is, the chart looks like shit. Price just rallied directly into resistance and has now formed a lower high confirming resistance at $79.
The price of oil is going much lower from here.
I wouldn't touch this from the long side until we get into the green support levels.
Good luck to all of the people bullish oil here because it won't turn out well for you.
Wednesday: Crude oil focuses on 71.2/72.5 pressureOn Wednesday (January 3), crude oil prices were trading around $70.37 per barrel. As investors lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts, the dollar strengthened, putting oil under pressure. Oil prices fell on the first trading day of 2024, with international crude oil futures settlement prices falling by more than 1% as concerns that tensions in the Red Sea could disrupt supply eased. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting early next month to resume routine oil market monitoring. A person familiar with the matter said the meeting is planned for February 1. The trend of U.S. oil this week needs to be repaired and digested. The market needs to confirm the validity of last week's decline. It needs to confirm whether the 73 line can still stand firm. If it can stand firm, U.S. oil will still have expectations for a rebound in the future. If 73 cannot be recovered, then The short-term market may have variable risks. Even if it does not fall in the short-term, it will have a great impact on later emotions. Crude oil's daily closing line has a small negative line with a long upper shadow, which has fallen below important support. There is a high probability that the daily line will hit a new low. The 4-hour cycle is effective for testing the upper pressure area, and if it falls below the long-term moving average support, there is a high probability that it will continue to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure on the upper line of $71.20.
Strategy reference: now 69.9, it is recommended to sell at 71.5-71.2
Planning ahead does not represent a real signal, see more signals👇
USOIL - Bearish Rising Wedge 📉
As We Talked in The Previous Analysis:
The USOIL Reached a Resistance Level (74.03 - 74.75).
Currently,
The Price Formed a Rising Wedge Pattern.
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Predict a Bearish Move.
________
TARGET: 69.50🎯
Monday. Crude oil falls under pressureCrude oil prices remained weak in Asian trading on Tuesday and are currently trading around 72.6. During the day, we will pay close attention to the US PMI to be released later on Tuesday. Later this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be closely watched ahead of Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.
The crude oil market was at 73.67 at the beginning of last week. Afterwards, the market initially rose, reaching a weekly high of 76. Then the market fell back strongly, with a weekly low of 71.05. Afterwards, the market consolidated and finally closed at the end of the week. The line was at 71.12, and then the market closed with a big negative line with a long upper shadow line. After this form ended, crude oil continued to be under pressure. In the 4-hour chart, the pressure on the 76.30 line changed and fell, and the structure fell in a wave. It is still in the rebound trend. The Bollinger Bands are running below the middle track, and the middle track 73.5 is an important resistance point.
Personal suggestion: short on rebound; WTI dividing line: 73.5
USOIL Sell signal Hello traders, over the last few months, Usoil has seen a bearish trend. I anticipate this selling momentum to continue until we reach 67.68 and we could go lower. In the past days, we've established the buy side of the curve and formed a market maker sell model.. I'm interested in engaging in a sell position once the daily FVG is reached, of course after a shift in momentum.
USOIL - BEARISH SCENARIO 📉Hello Traders !
On Monday 18 Dec, The USOIL Reached a Resistance Level (74.03 - 74.75)
The Price Formed a Double TOP Pattern.
So We Have a Bearish Scenario:
If The Market Breaks The Neckline and Closes Below That,
We Will See a Bearish Move...
TARGET: 69.50🎯
28 Crude oil follows 74.4/72.5, see my analysisMarket participants will be watching developments in the Red Sea closely as a drone attack on an oil tanker raises concerns about shipping disruptions. Additionally, ongoing Israeli military strikes in Gaza remain a major driver of sentiment.
On the 1H chart, OIL is in a blocked upward trend. The upper pressure is 74.4. If it stands firm, it will return to the trend. If it falls below the 72.4 support below, it means the end of this round of rising prices.
Focus on these two locations today
27 crude oil market analysis, rise or fall today?The crude oil market is currently at a crossroads, balancing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with economic factors and policy speculation.
Although oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Wednesday, they surged more than 2% earlier this week to reach their highest level this month. Inventory reports further affected the market outlook. Forecasts show U.S. crude inventories will fall by 2.6 million barrels, while distillate and gasoline inventories are expected to rise. These insights provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are critical for traders to gauge supply levels. Yesterday (December 26) crude oil closed up. Last week, the weekly closed positive for the second week and rebounded. But whether it can continue is a question. Whether it continues to close positive this week or turns negative and falls back will determine the direction of the market outlook.
The 1-hour chart tested twice near 76 and was suppressed. Today we still need to pay attention to the pressure break at the high point. It is currently rebounding, but whether it can continue further requires breaking through the resistance of 76 to open up space. Below, focus on the two previous lows of 73.2 and 72.5. If they fall below, it means the end of this stage of the rise.
If you currently hold orders, you can send them to me and I will give reasonable suggestions based on the market conditions!
Things to note when trading crude oil this week! Day analysiTraders this week must contend with both declining liquidity and potential tensions caused by Yemen's Houthi rebels. If the shipping crisis in the Red Sea region persists, it will not only provide some support for WTI crude oil prices this week, but also create opportunities for speculative buying.
Traders will need to be cautious about risk management this week due to the Christmas holiday. WTI crude oil bears may believe that there will be a high technical reversal, and they will also pay attention to Middle East shipping news.
Last week, the market fluctuated upward, and closed the positive line with a long upper and lower shadow line, indicating that the market was more volatile. However, the market is still running below the 20-day moving average, and the overall trend is still bearish. During the day, focus on the first-line pressure of $74 at the top and the first-line support of $72.0 at the bottom. At present, the technical indicators have completely turned bearish, and it is recommended to mainly go short on the rebound!
OIL IS VERY BULLISH WAVE E ENDED The chart posted is that of WTI . even in a bearish alt oil will see back to 80 The cycles model is in the bottom phase and is set to turn up for the rally into first 90 days . bearish for SP 500
USOIL Long Term Price Analysis.Hello everyone. i want share my idea about USOIL price long term analysis.
We all remember USOIL price were pretty bullish couple month ago but after it touch to weekly resistance we saw pretty trend which still not over.
Price came to strong weekly support where we see aggressive buyers which gave us some High Low, i see some trend change signals and make some scenes from that point what i need to be bullish. After strong downside price movement from 72.00 to 67.70 it touch to weekly support when buyers were aggressive and broke some 1 hour and 4 hour resistances until it were testing broke resistances it was taking liquidity, at the moment it testing 4 hour support where we see aggressive reaction but still not changing price movement and its coming down, if buyers are still stronger i think it need to brake 4 hour resistance and slowly come back for retest where i think we will get some reaction from buyers (Scene 1).
If that movement is only correction of trend i think we will get some fake brake out, where Sellers will active and it will continue price fall. in my opinion strong sellers zone is between 76-78 zone (Scene 2, Scene 3).
I am looking price action because we are at some good point where we can catch real good trade, i have 3 good scene if my scenes will be right i will open position and ill update this post.
USOIL: 22/12O European market suggestionAngola said it would withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), raising questions about the producer group's efforts to support prices by limiting global supply. In the 4-hour chart, after falling below the middle track and back-testing the lower track, it holds the sub-low and rebounds above the lower track to regain the middle track. The 4-hour chart is a rapid downward rebound, seeking support and correction, and then continuing upward. In the short term, use 73.8 as a defensive support point, and then adjust your thinking if it breaks below.
But as long as the low point of the step is not broken, the trend remains unchanged. On the whole, it is suggested that the short-term operation of crude oil should focus on the first-line resistance of 76.0 at the top and the first-line support of 73.8 at the bottom.
Continue to look for low prices to buy. If you want to get the latest signals, you can contact me↓
USOIL: Today’s crude oil analysis summaryToday crude oil sold according to the recommendation I gave in the morning, and then fell 200pips,
But it should be noted that it did not fall below the previous low.
Therefore, the market outlook does not rule out another breakthrough after sideways consolidation, hitting the 76 high point I talked about on Monday and Tuesday.
But no matter what, on the 4H chart and 1D chart, it can be seen that it is in the rebound trend of the downward trend, so the upper space is limited, and it is expected to be around 76, but once it returns to the downward trend, the lower space is very large.
I will continue to analyze the specific market trends with you on Friday, please pay attention↓
Oil operation suggestions for next weekAngola may increase oil production after it withdraws from OPEC. However, good news about the U.S. economy and attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused hundreds of ships to change routes and increase delivery costs, causing oil prices to fall before the Christmas holiday weekend. Although oil prices rose about 3% this week, crude oil prices still posted their largest weekly gain in two months.
Technically we see crude oil futures support at 72.5 and resistance at 75.3. This week, the 30-minute long and short trend has repeatedly appeared. Crude oil continued to fall before the close on Friday, and the short energy distribution continued to build up at $74 to suppress the market.
From a daily perspective, crude oil fell in late trading on Friday, and profit-taking before holidays is a very normal operation. Judging from the current technical indicators, it has completely turned short. It is recommended to focus on rebounding and shorting!
The specific direction will be decided after the market opens on Tuesday.
USOIL: The rise is blocked and will fall in the short termInternational oil prices rose. Originally affected by the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, oil prices first rose and then fell. However, the risk of interruption of the Red Sea transportation channel still provided support for oil prices, helping to keep oil prices above the 21-day moving average.
Yesterday, the market rose first and then fell as expected, reaching the upper line of 75.40 and falling back. Despite this, oil prices finally closed higher. Government data showed that U.S. inventories increased significantly and production reached record levels, exacerbating continued concerns about oversupply. The U.S. market yesterday evening The second upward attack pierced 75.3, and then it fell back and fluctuated downward to break the bottom and close. The daily line closed higher and fell back. The overall price showed a stagflation pattern above the 75 mark. Today, we can go short first and then look at the shock and fall.
Bear Market
The free signal given to you today is the USOIL trading strategy, because there is EIA data today, and the data is as expected, which is favorable to the bears.
Because there has been no significant decline so far, we have only closed some orders, and there are still some holdings waiting for the market to go lower further to expand profits.
The 3h chart of gold is favorable for shorts, and 30m is testing the resistance level. I focus on shorting, with the purpose of trading the large-level trend. (Resistance 2038-2043, support 2029-2026)
USOIL: It broke through 75 today and is expected to return to 80Crude oil (USOIL): Crude oil also showed the same picture as my analysis yesterday, falling first and then rising.
Today's opening is at 74, with an amplitude of $3 in the morning. It's not promising, and the amplitude is smaller than gold! The daily chart has risen for five consecutive days. Visually, the downward trend has ended, and a new round of bullish trend is coming. Today it will continue to attack above 75. If it is suppressed, there will be a small downward correction in the past two days. If it directly breaks through 75 , crude oil will continue to move towards the 80 mark! ! Today we will focus on the two positions 73.5/73 below! !
USOIL: 19/12 Today’s AdviceYesterday, the conflict in the Red Sea region of the US market escalated, and a cruise ship incident occurred, so gold and crude oil rose sharply. However, the biggest impact of this incident was on energy, and the impact on gold was limited, So, crude oil breaks through the technical suppression of the 4H mid-track and continues the upward trend.
On the weekly line, the market first fell and then rose last week and closed with a long lower shadow line and a positive line, indicating that there is some support below, and the market is more likely to rebound this week. However, the market is still below the 20-day moving average, and the overall market will still be under pressure. There is pressure at $74.61 at the top, and support at $72 at the bottom.
If you currently have an order, you can send it to me and I will give you reasonable advice based on your position!
