DXY| Sellers Took Control Again Hi Tradingview Family,
Shaquan here. Today I noticed the Dollar Index(DXY, USDX) made a new low. What this tells me is the sellers still have control and it's time to look for another selling opportunity on USDCHF while buying EURUSD.
I'll be going live on Trading-view at 8:00 pm EST. tonight to cover the in detailed analysis while sharing with you the 10 tools I use to analyze my price chart.
My prayer is you find these tools Trading view provides to be beneficial to you.
Follow your trading plan and update to the new price movement.
-Shaquan
Usdx
Gold: A Bearish correction.Hello TradingView! This is going to be my first ever analisis I publish, so please, keep this in mind while you are executing your trade. This is not financial advice.
We have seen an amazing bull run in Gold these past weeks ever since the Dollar (DXY) broke down. Now that the price is consolidating in an ascending wedge, while the DXY is correcting, some bearish signals are starting to form:
Divergence on the daily timeframe on the MACD and RSI.
While the ascending wedge signals contraction, which in my opinion will lead to a pullback to around the 1700-1750 area, where I predict the resumption of the bullish momentum, but then this will be another idea to publish.
Fake breakout on the upper side of the wedge. Being that there are many contrarian signals, I do not believe Gold has the momentum to continue upwards for the time being. It is time to cool off and wait for a bullish entry.
For this idea we are looking for signal in the weekly candle close, I suggest looking for an entry around the 1850 area, with a stop loss around 1950 and profit taking around our target 1750.
Thanks for reading and happy trading! I will be updating this idea as the weeks progress.
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DOLLAR COT STUDY - COT DIV BEFORE DIST- SEP FOMC meetings pivotal post-Covid
ACCUMULATION:
- From FOMC SEP 2020 until FOMC SEP 2021 price was accumulating in a range
- From FOMC SEP 2021 until FOMC SEP 2022 price was trending up
MARK UP:
- Trend progressed in 3 COT-stages:
1. Re-accumulation (Large COT increase while price remains relatively depressed)
2. Mark Up (Limited COT increase while price rallies)
3. Climax Buy (COT Tops after limited increase while price rallies followed by big retrace)
DISTRIBUTION:
- First portion of distribution started after Climac Buy
- Price makes Higher Highs followed by topping formation while COT makes Lower Highs
- Re-distribution phase starts after FOMC SEP 2022
- Price is no longer supported by Instituions
EXPECTATIONS:
- Weekly (fresh) Demand-Zone at 99.50
- 99.50 is 50% of swing from 2021-Low to 2022 Climax Buy
- From 99.50 wait for COT to indicate new phase
DIXIE looking horrid and next target 96.40Head and Shoulders has formed on Daily. It didn't even complete a decent looking right shoulder, which shows how strong the bears were to push the index.
Moving averages are all bearish with 200 >21 > 7 MA.
The interest rate hike has shifted attention to possible inflationary measures in the future for the US.
This has resulted in Investors taking their money out of the US Dollar and putting it in Euro...
So the first target is 96.40.
EXPLAINED DIXIE (US Dollar Currency Index) What, why where, how?The US Dollar has been in the limelight and not in a good way. In fact, he US dollar has not been dimmer since 22 September 2022 where it was trading at 114.42.
Currently it’s at 103.90 (9.19%) down…
But what does it all mean?
Why is the Dixie such a popular index to understand, and trade.
You see it in the news every time you turn on Bloomberg and you see it in the publications. So we might as well understand it for the next time they mention the Dixie.
IN this short article I’m going to answer the 6 most important questions, to help you understand the Dixie is, how it’s calculated and how to trade it…
1. WHAT IT IS?
The U.S. Dollar Index – DIXIE - (USDX) was first intrpduced in March 1973 and is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
2. HOW IT’S CALCULATED
The USDX is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is based on the exchange rates of six major currencies: the euro (EUR) – Accounts for 57.6% - ,Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF) .
3. ECONOMY GAUZE
The DIXIE is used as a barometer for the value of the US dollar to base it on the potential strength of weakness of the U.S Economy.
4. TRADED BASED ON
The USDX is traded on financial markets, and its value moves based on certain macro aspects such as: Changes in exchange rates, economic conditions, and global market trends.
5. USE
Investors and financial institutions uses the USDX is often to hedge against currency risk, as well as to speculate on changes in the value of the U.S. dollar.
6. HIGHER VERSUS LOWER VALUE
If the Dixie goes up this means the US Dollar is gaining strength against the other currencies. The more it goes up the more it appreciates which indicates a stronger US dollar – Stronger economy – more confidence in the US dollar.
If the Dixie drops, it means the US dollar is getting weaker against the other currencies in the basket for the index. As it drops more, it depreciated which tells us the US dollar is getting weaker which means – a weaker economy and less confidence in the US dollar.
If this was interesting let me know in the comments or hit the like button and let me know what else you would like to learn about in bite size information.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
US index under controlUS index is being controlled and it will not fall that easily. The price movements for the past 2022 looks to me like they were all happened by either greedy or panic trades. At this moment, 50bps rate hike should pump the US index up a bit in the coming weeks.
Until around Q2-Q3 of 2023, this should be the time when USDX starts falling.
This is only my opinion and not a financial advice. Trade safe!
USD Dumping Alerts " overvalued " The dollar had a nice rally and is about to collapse .. the rally was markup and we are gonna see a retest towards 106 must break down the 106 level then it's bullish .. building short positions starting from the September candle, especially above 109.900 and going full short if it touches 119.600 .. its a large zone so give it space and dont rush, its worth it ,,
oh, I forget to mention that all fundamentals are dollar bearish now it's time for the dollar to pay the bill :)
SEASONALLY NZD STRONGEST MAJOR vs USD in DEC- Seasonally spoken NZD is supposed to be the strongest amongst the Majors
- USD is supposed to weak in DEC
- Seems like Institutions bought below 0.5750
- Looking for an offset 1000 pips higher above 0.6750
- 0.6250 = Previous Year Middle = Imbalance = GAP = Support
- Volume preceeds price on the Daily
- COT shows Asset Managers accumulationg longs and distributing short since NOV
COT VISUAL: images2.imgbox.com
NZD STRONGEST MAJOR IN DEC VS USD- Seasonally spoken NZD is supposed to be the strongest amongst the Majors
- USD is supposed to weak in DEC
- Seems like Institutions bought below 0.5750
- Looking for an offset 1000 pips higher above 0.6750
- 0.6250 = Previous Year Middle = Imbalance = GAP = Support
- Volume preceeds price on the Daily
- COT shows Asset Managers accumulationg longs and distributing short since NOV
S&P HIGHER IN DEC WHILE USD WEAK + COT BULLISH- Seasonal: S&P is supposed to be strong in DEC
- Seasonal: USD is supposed to be weak in DEC
- Pattern: Q4 created a W + 1st push, 2nd push is to be expected after stophunt
- Technical: Bullish break of Market Structure on the Daily in OCT
- Efficiency: D1 overlapping Gaps + Imbalances offer support around 3900 and 4000
- S&D: Weekly Supply-zone at 4500 with Imbalances below it
- COT: Asset Manangers accumulate longs and distribute shorts since OCT
COT + SEASONALLITY VISUALISED: images2.imgbox.com
DXY CAN DO A BOUNCE HERE ON THE SUPPORT FORMEDCheck out the trade plan for DXY today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you!
DXY has revisited the key level as expected and showed through our previous analysis and here we are expecting a possible bounce back on the highlighted area as supported by concerning the recent price action on this current level. By any chance, if DXY fails to hold up the bears on this level then we will see another hard dump breaking the support.