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USDX: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Continuation (Bullish) Support – 103.65 Resistance – 103.96 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today, we are asking if the USDX will set off on a new continuation higher after posting further bullish price action. The worry is if we don't see a close above resistance. This could set up a failed high, and if we don't see a break of resistance, this could set up a new extension lower. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Eightcap
Quick look at Oil, Gold & Dollar IndexI'm closely monitoring the oil market, adopting a cautious stance as I await a compelling catalyst to drive oil prices upward. A potential factor on my radar is the increasing involvement of the UK and the US in the tensions between Israel and Palestine. If this geopolitical situation intensifies and draws in Iran to support Palestine, it could contribute to a surge in oil prices. Shifting the focus to gold, my outlook is optimistic for a bullish trend in 2024. Historically, gold tends to perform well in the first quarter of the year, and I anticipate a positive trajectory for the precious metal. On the currency front, my analysis suggests a bearish trajectory for the US dollar index throughout 2024, potentially reaching 0.96 by the year-end. This projection reflects a cautious stance on the strength of the US dollar in the coming months.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by ManilaFXTrading
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Looking ahead to MarchWe move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point. Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing 23bp on the week. US 5-year real rates (i.e. US 5-year Treasury adjusted for expected inflation over the coming 5 years) have printed new cycle lows and sit at the lowest yield since May ’23. Some have stated the case that the US CPI print gives the Fed less scope to ease in March. Perhaps…but when we take the components from CPI and PPI that feed into the core PCE calculation (released 27 Jan), and we’re looking at an estimate of c. 0.2% mom, which sees the 6-month annualised rate of core PCE around 2% - and given core PCE is what the Fed set policy to – bingo, we have a clear justification as to why the bond and rates market feels March is the starting point. Tuesday’s (Wed 03:00 AEDT) speech from Fed member Christopher Waller will be one of the key focal points this week, where recall he set off the rally in late November with definition on a timeline and a path to cut rates, which essentially started the Fed pivot and the year-end risk rally. With talk of an earlier start to QT tapering and lower relative US bond yields, it’s a surprise that the USD is holding in so well with the DXY tracking a sideways range of 102.70 to 102.10. On the week the GBPUSD was the best performer in G10, with price pushing 1.2800, while the BRL got spoils in the EM FX space. Gold has seen somewhat of a renaissance against this backdrop though, where on the 4-hr chart price closed above the recent downtrend, where on the daily price closed above the 5-day EMA. A weak US retail sales could offer renewed life for gold bulls and see price target 2075. It's been a mixed picture in equity land, with much focus on the JPN225 gaining a massive 6.9% - although, the risk-to-reward trade-off suggests refraining from new longs and waiting for some of the heat to come out of the move. An RSI of 80 aside, 87% of stocks are above the 50-day MA, and 68% of stocks closed at a 4-week high. A sign of euphoria and a signal for contrarians or solid participation and therefore bullish? I favour the latter. While US earnings continue to trickle in and the US election process officially kicks off in Iowa, China takes centre stage once again with retail sales, Q4 GDP, and property sales. China/HK equity remains challenged, but the tape is turning, and shorts are seeing signs that we may be turning from a trend position to one of trading a consolidation, where range trading in the CHINAH, HK50 and CN50 may be the strategy. We’ll see but if the data comes in softer, or we don’t see the level of monetary policy easing that’s priced, then frustration will likely see renewed selling flows. The set-up in US equity indices look balanced with 2-week risk – the risk bulls will naturally want the US500 to clear 4800 and the NAS100 through 17k, but with options expiry across the VIX, index and single stock plays this week (schedule below), one questions if we see a higher volatility post expiration. An obvious consideration for one’s risk management. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: US markets closed for MLK Day (Monday) – partial trade in futures. • China 1-year MLF rate (15 Jan 12:20 AEDT) – we should see the PBOC cut the Medium-Lending Facility by 10bp to 2.4% (from 2.5%), with a chance they cut by 15bp to 2.35%. Anything less than a 10bp cut could weigh on CHINAH, CN50 and HK50. We also remain on watch for a cut to China’s bank reserve ratio requirement (RRR) as well. • UK employment and wages (16 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – on wages, the consensus is we see Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY moderate a touch to 6.8% (from 7.2%). The outcome will play into UK rates pricing, where the first 25bp cut is priced for May. GBPUSD seems to be finding good supply into 1.2800, so the GBP bulls will want to see a closing break here to add to longs. Favour EURGBP into 0.8560. • China Q4 GDP (17 Jan 13:00) – the economist’s median estimate has Q4 GDP growing 1% QoQ and 5.2% YoY (from 4.9% in Q3) – GDP by its nature is a backwards-looking data point but given the lack of confidence international money managers have in investing in China, I think the outcome of the China GDP report could impact market volatility. • China industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, property sales (17 Jan 13:00) – the market looks for these data points to come in at 4.5%, 2.9%, 8% and -9.5% respectively. Certainly, the market will be closely watching the property sales data for further evidence that sales are troughing. • UK CPI (17 Jan 18:00 AEDT) – a potential vol event for GBP traders, so monitor exposures over the data point - the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3.8% yoy (from 3.9%) and core CPI at 4.9% (5.1%). GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility sits at 6.67% (the 17th percentile of the 12-month range), and pricing a -/+ 105-pip move from Friday’s closing level. • US retail sales (18 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median consensus is we see sales growing 0.4% mom, with the ‘control group’ element at 0.2%. The market picks and chooses to run with this data point, but I think a mom decline – should it come - could impact sentiment and promote good USD sellers. • Aussie employment report (18 Jan 11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see 15k jobs created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.9%. Aussie interest rate futures price the June RBA meeting as the probable first cut, so this pricing may come into question, but it would take a move in the unemployment rate to do so. • Japan national CPI (19 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for JP headline CPI to moderate to 2.6% (from 2.8%) and core CPI to print 3.7% (3.8%). After last week’s -3% decline in real wages, and falling inflation in Japan, coming at a time when other G10 central are expected to start a cutting cycle, it hardly incentivises the BoJ to lift rates. Fed speakers – Christopher Waller (17/1 03:00 AEDT), Williams, Bostic, Daly Other factors that could affect market sentiment: • US Corp earnings – It’s a quiet week on the US earnings front with c3% of the US500 market cap report - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley garner attention, while we see several regional banks out with numbers, so put the KRE ETF on the radar. • US politics – On Monday we get the results from the Iowa Caucuses – Trump is almost certain to win the REP nomination, but could Nikki Haley gain some momentum to take into the New Hampshire Primary on 23 January? • US options expiry – US equity index expiry (16 Jan), VIX options expiry (17 Jan), equity options expiry (19 Jan).
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
USDX: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDX Pattern – Minor Support. Support – 102.06 Resistance – 102.52 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today's video asks if USDX will continue to hold short-term support at 106.06 and make a new move at testing resistance, or is this just descending triangle price action, which in time will resume the overall downtrend with a new breakout lower. Traders will also be watching this week's CPI data, which could have some influence on Fed members depending on what we see come in. In the meantime, we will contnue to watch buyers from 102.06 support. US CPI data will be released this Friday at 12:30 am AEDT. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
USDX: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-US CPIToday's focus: USDX Pattern – LH Resistance push Support – 102.45 Resistance – 104.12 - 104.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today's video asks if USDX will continue to remain below resistance and possibly break lower if today's CPI data comes in lower than expected. We are mainly focused on the resistance areas and the current LH that has formed around the supply and resistance areas discussed in our video update. We have also noted some bullish price action; if CPI rises to the upside, this could set up a new continuation higher. But for now, as noted in today's video, we will continue to look at the resistance holds and the current trend of CPI declines on the y/y. US CPI data is due on Wednesday at 8:30 am EST or 12:30 pm AEDT. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
USDX - BULLISH SCENARIOThe US Dollar index is currently positioned near crucial support levels, including the 38% retracement from July 2023 lows to October 2023 highs, alongside the previous descending channel trend line and support from the 50% retracement, 200-day moving average (DMA), and a potential bull flag pattern. Despite recent declines due to factors like a slightly weaker Consumer Price Index (CPI), reduced yields, and a general stock market rally, these support levels might prove stronger than anticipated. With the stock market vulnerable to a near-term pullback and upcoming European Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases, the narrative of "USA exceptionalism" could persist. A significant bullish signal for the US Dollar index would be a rally above the 50-day moving average (DMA) at approximately the 105.75 level.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by legacyFXofficial
Reading multi timeframe Secrethello everyone, this is my first video tutorial on this website. I hope I explained everything properly if I didn't let me know so I can make improvements... I did have some people who contacted me how to trade, they liked my analysis so I made this video for them and also for people new to trading.. Or people who are already pro this will give a nice upgrade on there skills for this tutorial I used DXY which is the most important index in trading and I think it's a good start for new traders so they can use DXY to trade major currencies.. please let me know how the video was? thank you
TVC:DXYEducation
by baigxy
22
USD Index: Thoughts and Analysis pre-NFP Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – 105.50 - 106 Resistance – 106.75 - 107.05 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDX on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the USDX as price continues to trade range-bound after a choppy week and mixed influences. The FOMC failed to boost the USD after rates remained on hold, and comments pushed it lower on fears we could contnue to see further holds. With this in mind, we have started to look at the possibility of distribution creeping in. Could we see a new move lower to test or break support? Could a miss in today's NFP data add to the USD woes and contnue to push seller momentum in the short term? Be wary; this could also be a consolidation, and if we did see a new move through resistance, this could set up a new bullish continuation and cancel out any ideas of distribution. US Employment data is due at 8:30 a.m. EST today. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
Dollar Index IdeaGood morning, traders! Here's a quick update on the Dollar Index. It appears to be experiencing a substantial selloff, and indications point toward a repricing into lower liquidity levels. Interestingly, in contrast, we're observing rallies in other dollar pairs, including EUR/USD. We made an attempt to take a swing position lower in EUR/USD yesterday, but as we've seen, sometimes recognizing when a trade is moving against you is an art in itself. We promptly closed that trade with zero profit, demonstrating the importance of swift decision-making. This situation underscores the significance of monitoring correlation between currency pairs. Understanding these relationships can be instrumental in making informed trading choices. As for the Dollar Index, it's worth noting the presence of a single-print level at 104.897, often referred to as a "liquidity void" in modern trading vernacular. This is a particularly attractive target for algorithmic trading, and it will be intriguing to see how events unfold. Wishing you all a day of successful investing, dear traders.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by themarketknight
DXY: Signs are we're ready for retracement?As we know the relative strength of DXY determines the direction of many pairs, and all of the USD crosses so I always keep an eye on it, even though I never trade it. This bullish move from mid-July has been unstoppable, but is now giving clear signs of exhaustion and potentially a retracement. Looking at the daily we've just closed with a pinbar, the first of this move up (I class the previous high closing candle as more of a doji as it has longer lower wick), which is a reversal sign (and could indicate the top of a LH), but we need to really wait for the next daily close to confirm, but I expect it to close lower (caveat - lot of news tomorrow with US Core PCE - however if today is anything to go by I'm not expecting it to change my analysis). We've had stonking news this week for the USD yet we failed to make a new high, today's ahead of expectation and double GDP growth over the previous quarter even failed to entice more bulls, which tells me we need to fall back some. Looking at the 1hr chart we can see multiple things going on, a head and shoulders with neckline break (failed retest), although also a double bottom (however I can't see this holding), I'll wait to see what happens into London before making moves: So overall, if we break 105.4 (to create LL) then I think we could see a fall back to either the 38.2% or 50% fib which will be approx. 104.4 and 103.5 respectively. When this moves it moves fast and the impact will be great so watching crosses closely, especially GBP and EUR that are poised nicely for a bull run, but this is down to USD retracement rather than anything they have to offer.
TVC:DXYShort
by Finchcliffe
1
NZD slides against the Japanese YenThe New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading bearish against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at 87.386 on Friday, October 27, 2023, following comments from Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Taro Matsuno that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to conduct appropriate monetary policy. Matsuno's comments come amid rising expectations that the BoJ will eventually tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation in Japan. The BoJ has been maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy stance for many years, but this has led to a significant weakening of the JPY in recent months. The NZDJPY currency pair has been under pressure in recent weeks as investors have priced in the possibility of a more hawkish BoJ. The pair has fallen by over 5% since the start of October. The bearish outlook for NZDJPY is further supported by the technical outlook. The pair has broken below a key support level at 88.00, and is now on track to test the next support level at 86.50. Factors Weighing on NZDJPY There are a number of factors weighing on NZDJPY at present, including: Expectations of BoJ tightening: The BoJ is expected to be one of the last major central banks to tighten monetary policy, which is putting downward pressure on the JPY. Rising inflation in Japan: Japan's inflation rate has been rising in recent months, which is putting pressure on the BoJ to tighten monetary policy. Global risk aversion: Global investors are currently risk averse, which is leading to a sell-off in riskier assets such as the NZD. Weak New Zealand economic data: The New Zealand economy has been slowing in recent months, which is weighing on the NZD. Technical Outlook for NZDJPY The technical outlook for NZDJPY is bearish. The pair has broken below a key support level at 88.00, and is now on track to test the next support level at 86.50. If NZDJPY breaks below 86.50, it could fall to 85.00 or even lower. Trading Strategy Traders who are bearish on NZDJPY could consider shorting the pair at current levels. A stop loss could be placed above the recent high at 88.00. A profit target could be placed at 86.50 or 85.00. It is important to note that the foreign exchange market is volatile and prices can move quickly. Traders should always use risk management techniques when trading currencies.
Short
by masterclass618
DOLLAR IdeaGood morning, traders. Yesterday, we witnessed a push down in the dollar and an upward move in EUR/USD. We're still trading within a range, and we noticed the first sign of weakness in the dollar index as it failed to make a lower low. Today, we have news releases that can influence the dollar, so exercise caution when trading dollar pairs. We're patiently waiting for a swing trade opportunity on EUR/USD, but first, we need to see the dollar break through levels around 105.500. Once that happens, we'll actively look for swing trades on EUR/USD. Stay patient, my friends. There's no need to take unnecessary risks. The market offers plenty of opportunities. Happy trading!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by themarketknight