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The Shinny white metal will bring enormous profits to the table Gold and silver prices are steady to weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday. Bulls in both metals have suffered a minor setback late this week and now they need to step up and show some fresh strength to keep their price uptrends on the charts alive. The just-released third estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP came in at up 2.0%, which was unchanged from the last estimate and in line with market expectations. The markets showed little reaction to the news. Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The up-and-down U.S.-China trade rhetoric is presently in “up” mode following positive comments on the matter from President Trump on Wednesday. Then on Thursday China’s Commerce Ministry said Chinese companies will buy “sizeable amounts” of U.S. soybeans and pork ahead of high-level trade discussions scheduled to take place in October. This has given the world marketplace a bit of a boost in risk appetite. However, the positive news on the world trade front is being blunted by the U.S. House of Representatives considering impeaching Trump over what the House says are illegal comments Trump made to a Ukrainian official. The Trump administration on Wednesday released the transcript of his comments to the official, which is being spun by both Republicans and Democrats to each’s favor. Whether Trump actually gets impeached seems unlikely at this time. However, the inquiry by the House is very likely to bog down the U.S. government to a standstill on new legislation, and is likely to hurt Trump’s foreign policy agenda, including trade negotiations with China. Upbeat economic data coming out of Germany is also assuaging European investors late this week. A consumer sentiment report Thursday showed a higher reading in September than in August, and the September number was also higher than expected. Recent economic data coming out of Germany had been dour. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $56.50 a barrel. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but not far below the high for the year. Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and pending home sales. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded late this week. A four-month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it in place. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $18.81 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.47. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $18.105 and then at $18.25. Next support is seen at $17.75 and then at $17.58
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
TIME IS TICKING AND THERE IS ONLY 2 HOURS LEFTToday can play out one of two ways — the Federal Reserve introduces a 25-basis point rate cut and gold consolidates, or the central bank doubles down on easing with a 50-basis point cut and gold rallies to new highs. Gold has traded in a range between $1,430 and $1,411 this week, looking to end the session on Friday down 0.55% on the week. August Comex gold futures were last at $1,418.50, up 0.27% on the day. All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision Today. Markets are currently pricing in a 78.6% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Markets are widely expecting for the Fed to begin its easing cycle, but what will matter the most is whether the central bank is embarking on a major easing cycle or just a couple of rate cuts. “The fact that overall the U.S. economy is not dropping off a cliff is consistent with our view that we are only looking for a quarter-point cut now, another quarter-point cut before the end of the year, and then the Fed going on hold in 2020,” said CIBC Capital Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld. “For the Fed to continue on cutting into 2020, you’ll have to have the economy remain very slugging next year.” 25-Basis Point Rate Cut Scenario Gold is likely to consolidate but hold above the $1,400 an ounce mark if the Fed sticks to a 25-basis point cut this Wednesday. “ might go a little bit lower because there is still a portion of the market that is expecting a 50-basis point cut next week. Ultimately, we’ll get a 25-point cut and we’ll a bit of a re-pricing lower in gold ,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay. A break lower in gold and testing of the $1,400 level is most likely in a quarter-point cut scenario, said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. Overall, gold is expected to remain a great long-term buying opportunity to investors, McKay added. “Ultimately, any dip will be a buying opportunity for the longer-term … Gold is very well supported due to global central banks shifting to this easing tone,” he said. The U.S. GDP data from Q2, which came in slightly better-than-expected, will play a role in the Fed’s decision, especially when it comes to inflation . With the U.S. economy slowing to 2.1% in Q2 and Fed’s key inflation metric — core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — coming in below expectations at 1.8%, it might just be enough to see the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. “Core PCE at 1.8% is further ammunition for the doves at the Fed meeting next week,” McKay noted. The overall economic slowdown, however, was not particularly severe, noted Shenfeld, which is why a 25-basis point cut is the likely scenario. “The items that the Fed is worried about — a decline in global growth rate, the impacts of trade wars on exports, and the impacts on business confidence all showed up in the report,” he said. “A modest dose of interest rate relief will help turn the corner on housing, which has been a drag and support on the continuation of reasonable growth and consumer spending, which together should be enough of a tailwind to offset the drag from a softer global economy.” 50-Basis Point Rate Cut A major cut by 50 basis points would see gold rally to fresh multi-year highs and test the $1,454 levels and possibly higher, according to analysts. “If the Fed does a 50-point cut, we would come back up and test those recent highs $1,454-40,” said Nedoss. “What gold is looking at is that we are in an easing cycle, but where are we in that cycle. We started the year by talking about one rate cut, then two, then three, then back to two.” What Else To Watch A central thing to watch on the global front is how other economies are growing this summer, with a majority of key central banks turning dovish this year, including a new stimulus package that is likely to be introduced by the European Central Bank (ECB) this September. “ plays into the global theme of central banks easing and the negative-yielding debt pile continuing to surge. Other items on the radar next week are the U.S. employment report, the ISM manufacturing index and U.S.-China trade talks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
2
USDX: What is Dollar's Goal ?By observing the dollar from a monthly perspective, we quickly see the formation of a partterne: the Quasimodo(QM) which gives us a vision of a bearish scenario. Currently the price is in a compression towards a sales area (MONTHLY SUPPLY). If we want to go in this direction, we must also take into account that the supply can be quite low and the price could exceed the expectations to look for more liquidity at the last higher so forming a double high before starting a new downtrend. Dear fellow traders, let's not forget the change in variables, keep a close eyes on economic news, the dollar could be worth more than we might expect.
TVC:DXYShort
by Elite_Markets