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Usdtryshort

ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.02.17On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into the month end. On the fundamental side, Turkey remains in rough shape, those bearish on Turkey should use this as an opportunity to add heavy bullish exposure with targets up towards the 7.80xx levels: In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the extensive breakout we traded previously has unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the core bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. We can use the long-term charts as our drivers to scale into swings more comfortably on the immediate term. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
USD/TRY SHORT IDEA - PULLBACKThis trade idea is for demonstration and educational purposes only and does not constitute a signal to enter an order. As we look at this pair, we see that price exhibited a strong break to the upside out of a bullish pennant as noted. Price is approaching a key zone in the market. According to market structure we can expect a slight pullback. As I study this pair, I am watching price action around this key zone as noted for indication that price will reject this zone. In the open of market this week, I am looking for price to exhibit a bit more bullish movement towards the key zone as noted. After which, my inclination for this pair is that price will pull back to at least the lower key zone as noted before continuing up to higher highs. This zone also offers trendline confluence. Again, please note that before entering a sell we want to watch price action around this key zone for indication that price is rejecting this key zone, and pulling back. If rejection does not occur, this idea becomes invalid. This pullback idea offers a possible 100-125 pip move. Please like and follow this post for updates.
Short
by mrsceleste
USDTRY before the 2.4% decline... Although the previous analysis did not follow the current exchange rate movement, I still maintain the findings of my previous analysis. The following figure shows the following fractal rules. The yellow rectangles show the rising fractals. This indicates that the rise in the exchange rate is down 3-2-1. Meanwhile, the size of the falling fractals indicated by the red rectangle is the same. These two observations suggest that the northward movement of the exchange rate stops regularly. Meanwhile, the decreasing corrective movements are uniform and definite. But let's move on to the purple squares in the exchange rate. These are the ATR endpoints of the PSAR indicator and the peak valleys of the exchange rate. These are virtually the two "delimiting regions" between which the sequence fluctuates. Now we can see that the two border areas are widening and the amplitude of the exchange rate fluctuation is increasing. Therefore, I am assuming that the exchange rate is heading south and is starting to fall again with a target price of $ 5.6777.
Short
by meszaros
USDTRY we hold the short position... I refer to this post as an update to the previous analysis. Current analysis uses the rule that the exchange rate can move symmetrically on wave curves. This is what we will trade. The situation is easier now, since I have been in a short position for a long time, so I will keep this trade. The figure shows how the wave sequence develops on the MA curves. The rule is that we consider the position of the two extreme moving average curves. Here the number of MA days is indifferent. In case the analysis is correct, the target price for the exchange rate decrease is 5.50110usd
Short
by meszaros
2
Analysis of USDTRY 8.10.2019The price above 200 MA, indicating a growing trend. The MACD histogram is above the zero lines. The oscillator Force Index is above the zero lines. If the level of resistance is broken, you should follow the recommendations below: • Timeframe: H4 • Recommendation: Long Position • Entry Level: Long Position 5.8500 • Take Profit Level: 5.9000 (500 pips) If the price rebound from resistance level, you should follow the recommendations below: • Timeframe: H4 • Recommendation: Short Position • Entry Level: Short Position 5.7900 • Take Profit Level: 5.7600 (300 pips) USDJPY A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 107.00 GOLD A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1505.00 USDCHF A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 0.9910 EURUSD A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1.1000
by PaxForex