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DJ FXCM Index

Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy. The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach • America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability. • The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives. • A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed. China: The Dragon in the Room China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle. Beyond China: Other Considerations • US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields. • Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies. • Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations. So, Should You Short DXY? The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown: • For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial. • For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk. Alternative Strategies Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives: • Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk. • Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar. The Final Bite The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Sell USDCAD Channel PatternThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a possible shorting opportunity due to the presence of a channel pattern. Potential Short Trade: Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) only after a confirmed breakout below the support trendline of the channel. Ideally, this would be around 1.3750 or lower if the price continues to decline after the breakout. Target Levels: 1.3652: This target is achieved by measuring the height of the channel (distance between the resistance and support lines) and projecting it downwards from the breakout point. 1.3607: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on roughly twice the height of the channel. Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally with some buffer around 1.3770. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
11
EURUSD: 1D MA50-200 rejection. Strong sell.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.370, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 29.673) as it got rejected on the 1D MA50-MA200 level, which stopped the bullish wave of the Channel Up from extending higher and potential breaking the pattern. The 1D RSI is on the stage where it should reverse as per March 12th. This is a strong sell signal, TP = 1.05550 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
3
Sell XAUUSD Channel BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair (spot gold) on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further price declines in the coming hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 2322 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 2294: This represents the first level of support within the channel. 2279: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 2332. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
🇺🇸 US2M - QE To buy the US Debt again ? 💎Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. It's broader than M1, which only includes cash and checking deposits. M2 is important because it gives a more comprehensive picture of the available money for spending and investment within an economy. - Does quantitative easing add to the money supply? Quantitative easing expands the money supply by enlarging the central bank's balance sheet and introducing fresh cash into the economy. This process boosts banks' reserves held at the central bank, effectively increasing the overall money available for circulation and lending. So what does it imply ? 📈 When we say quantitative easing increases the money supply, it means that it adds more money into circulation within the economy. This can lead to more available funds for spending, investment, and lending, which can stimulate economic activity. ( + the US Dollar often goes down in this case) 📉 On the other hand, if we say quantitative easing decreases the money supply, it would mean the opposite: the central bank is reducing the amount of money in circulation. This could be done to control inflation or to address other economic concerns where too much money in circulation might cause problems like rising prices. (+ the US Dollar often goes up in this case) Do not forget to check this US2M Chart, it is very important. I wish you a great day. ILT 💎
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by IllumiTrade
Sell EUR/USD Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent breakout from a triangle pattern. Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support trendline of the triangle after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 1.0770 or lower if the price continues to decline. Target Levels: 1.0704: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from its apex (highest or lowest point) to the breakout point, projected downwards from the breakout point. 1.0680: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the triangle, ideally with some buffer around 1.0800. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Buy AUD/USD Bullish PennantThe AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent breakout from a well-defined bullish pennant pattern. This breakout suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the pennant, ideally around 0.6630 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the following points, based on the pennant and recent price movement: 0.6694: This target is obtained by measuring the height of the flagpole (initial uptrend before the pennant) and adding that distance to the breakout price. 0.6734: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on roughly twice the height of the flagpole. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the pennant, ideally around 0.6600. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
EURUSD Channel Top and Fib Resistance. Time to turn bearish.The EURUSD pair gave us an excellent pull-back buy entry last week (April 30, see chart below) and has almost reached our 1.08300 Target, which was the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level: We now turn bearish as not only is the price near the 0.618 Fib but also hit on Friday and gor rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) cluster. Above all, we are near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2024 Channel Down. The last Lower Low was priced just above the 1.236 Fib extension, which on the current Leg happens to be exactly on the 1.05175 Support. As a result our new Target for the medium-term is 1.05350 (just above the 1.236 Fib ext). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
Buy BTCUSDT Channel BreakoutThe BTC/USDT (Bitcoin) pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 5900 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the following points, based on the channel and recent price movement: 62274: This target is obtained by measuring the height of the channel (from the base to the breakout point) and adding that distance to the breakout price. 63830: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on roughly twice the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 56500. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Sell ETHUSDT Bearish PennantThe ETH/USDT (Ethereum) pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to the presence of a bearish pennant patten. Potential Short Trade : Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support trendline of the pennant after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 3020 or lower if the price continues to decline. Target Levels: 2764: This target is achieved by measuring the height of the flagpole (initial downtrend before the pennant) and projecting it downwards from the breakout point. 2692: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on roughly twice the height of the flagpole. Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the pennant, ideally with some buffer around 3040. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
#USDT.DOMINANCE 1DAY UPDATE !!USDT DOMINANCE ANALYSIS USDT.D is forming a rising wedge pattern, nearing the support trendline. MACD crossover suggests a potential bearish turn. A sustained wedge breakdown confirms a bearish trend; a bounce suggests consolidation within the pattern. USDTD typically moves inversely to the crypto market. I have tried to bring the best possible results in this chart. If you like it, hit the like button and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside. Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
#US DOLLAR ANALYSIS BY CRYPTOSANDERS !!#US Dollar Analysis: The US dollar surged after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern. Currently, it's encountering resistance at a horizontal level. RSI signals overbought conditions. A rejection seems probable, but a decisive breakout above resistance would confirm bullish sentiment. Remember, it often moves inversely to the crypto market. Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my profit and losses. So, do your research before investing in this trade. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you.
TFEX:USD1!
by CryptoSanders9563
USD Dollar is Performing a Retracement back to $104.5! 💵The recent movements in the USD Dollar have caught the attention of investors and forex traders alike. As the USD Dollar retraces back to $104.5, there are several advantages for both stock investment and forex trading that can be capitalized upon. Let's explore them in point form with emojis: Advantages of Stock Investment: 1. 💼 Diversification: Investing in stocks denominated in USD allows you to diversify your investment portfolio. By allocating a portion of your investment in stocks, you can potentially reduce risk and increase the potential for higher returns. 2. 💸 Dividend Income: Many stocks, especially those listed on reputable exchanges, offer dividends. Dividend income can provide a steady stream of passive income, which can be reinvested or used to cover expenses. 3. 📈 Capital Appreciation: A retracement in the USD Dollar can positively impact the performance of US-based companies. As the value of the USD Dollar declines, it can boost the competitiveness of American exports, leading to higher revenues and potentially driving up stock prices. 4. 🌍 Global Exposure: Investing in stocks allows you to gain exposure to international markets. If the USD Dollar retracement is accompanied by a strengthening of other currencies, it can create favorable conditions for multinational companies, potentially leading to increased profits. Advantages of Forex Trading: 1. 💰 Profit from Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Forex trading provides an opportunity to profit from fluctuations in exchange rates. As the USD Dollar retraces, traders can take advantage of this movement by selling USD against other currencies, potentially earning profits from the price difference. 2. ⏱ Liquidity and Flexibility: The forex market is the most liquid financial market globally, meaning that traders can enter and exit positions quickly. This liquidity allows for greater flexibility in trading strategies, enabling traders to respond promptly to market developments. 3. 🌎 Global Market Access: Forex trading offers access to a vast array of currency pairs, allowing traders to participate in global economic trends. The retracement in the USD Dollar presents opportunities not only in major currency pairs but also in cross-currency pairs, opening up a wide range of trading possibilities. 4. ⚡️ Leveraged Trading: Forex trading allows for leveraged positions, meaning traders can control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital. This leverage amplifies potential profits, but it's important to note that it also increases the risk. Traders should exercise caution and use risk management strategies when utilizing leverage. In conclusion, the retracement of the USD Dollar back to $104.5 presents advantages for both stock investment and forex trading. Stock investment offers diversification, dividend income, capital appreciation, and global exposure, while forex trading provides opportunities to profit from exchange rate fluctuations, liquidity, global market access, and leveraged trading. As with any investment or trading activity, it's crucial to conduct thorough research, implement risk management strategies, and stay updated with market trends to make informed decisions. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. It is important to consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions. The financial markets, including stocks and forex, are complex and volatile. Predicting the performance of the USD Dollar, or any other investment, is challenging. While the advantages of stock investment and forex trading during a USD Dollar retracement were mentioned earlier, it is crucial to understand the associated risks. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Leverage in forex trading can amplify profits but also magnify losses. Traders should exercise caution and understand risk management techniques. In conclusion, the information provided is a general overview. Investing and trading carry risks, and no strategy ensures success. Seek guidance from a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICT_Trader_SB