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DJ FXCM Index

EURUSD short-term trading set-upThe EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the September 25 High and remains on a bearish course below the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) since October 01. The 1D RSI is displaying a huge Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows against the Lower Lows of the Channel Down, so long-term a strong bullish break-out is expected. On the short-term though, we can take advantage of this Lower Lows fractal that has been formed another 2 times on this pattern and rebounds towards the 4H MA200. You can short towards the RSI's Higher Lows trend-line, take the profit and switch to buying just before it touches it and then target 1.04200 (expected course of the 4H MA200). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
XAUUSD - Gold will welcome the holidays?!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is trading in its short-term ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of the bottom of the channel, we can see the continuation of gold's decline and seeing the demand zone. Within the demand range of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the upward movement continues, gold can be sold in the supply zone. Without a doubt, 2024 has been the year of the US dollar. While high inflation continued to spread across Europe and other parts of the world in 2023, the Federal Reserve reported progress in controlling price growth. Similar to last year, other central banks have been more proactive in reducing interest rates, but the slow pace of inflation containment has delayed the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting process. Federal Reserve officials now anticipate only two 0.25% interest rate cuts in 2025. As a result, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tighter monetary stance compared to other major central banks, except for the Bank of Japan, which is currently increasing its interest rates. This decision follows previous rate cuts implemented earlier this year, including a 50-basis-point reduction in September and a 25-basis-point cut in November. Overall, these measures have resulted in a full 1% decrease in the benchmark rate, signaling a shift in the Federal Reserve’s approach to the current economic environment. By lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve aims to stimulate consumption while continuing to monitor inflationary pressures. Although these pressures have generally subsided, they have slightly risen in recent months. Nonetheless, the decision to reduce rates could benefit borrowers by lowering consumer interest rates, making it more affordable to buy homes, secure personal loans, or borrow funds in other areas. However, the implications extend beyond lending. Adjustments to the Federal Reserve’s interest rates could create a complex environment for investors, particularly those drawn to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Historically, the relationship between interest rates and gold prices has been inversely proportional. Lower rates typically increase gold valuations, as the reduced cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold makes it more appealing, thereby driving up demand and prices. However, it is crucial to understand that the impact of interest rate decisions on gold prices operates within a broader network of interconnected factors beyond monetary policy. For investors considering adding gold to their portfolios, understanding this broader context is essential. In addition to Federal Reserve policies, one key driver of the gold market is central bank purchases, particularly by emerging economies seeking to diversify their reserves. These purchases have recently reached historic levels, providing substantial support for gold prices. Global trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and evolving industrial demand—especially from technology and renewable energy sectors—also add layers of complexity to the gold market. In the first quarter of this year, India’s central bank recorded a net purchase of 77 tons of gold, followed by Turkey’s central bank with 72 tons, increasing the share of gold in its foreign reserves to 34%. Poland, with a purchase of 69 tons, was the third-largest buyer, while China, traditionally the largest gold buyer in recent years, ranked fourth with less than 30 tons. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has predicted in its 2025 global outlook report that the coming year will be marked by increased geopolitical fragmentation and the formation of rival economic and political blocs. These developments are likely to accelerate the trend of de-dollarization and bolster gold purchases. Moreover, the strength of the US dollar continues to play a crucial role in gold pricing. However, factors such as relative economic growth rates, trade balances, and international capital flows can overshadow this influence.For instance, the dollar may strengthen if major economies face significant challenges or if investors seek safe-haven currencies during market turmoil—even in a rate-cut environment. Inflation expectations also strongly influence the gold market. While moderate inflation typically supports gold as a store of value, extreme inflation may shift investment patterns, potentially reducing demand if other assets offer higher returns. Changes in consumer demand, particularly from major gold-buying countries, can also impact prices. Additionally, seasonal trends, such as increased gold purchases during festivals or weddings in these countries, may contribute to price fluctuations. Finally, US President Joe Biden signed a budget bill that will fund the government until mid-March next year, preventing a year-end shutdown. This legislation, recently approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate, ensures government operations continue until the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
two buy positions on the DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)Here’s a structured plan for managing two buy positions on the DXY: --- 1. Entry Plan First Buy Position: Entry: 107.000 Likely Reason: Anticipation of strong support at this level, possibly near a significant technical or psychological level. Second Buy Position: Entry: 107.830 Likely Reason: Market reversal or breakout confirmation at this higher level. TVC:DXY 2. Risk Management Stop-Loss Levels: For the 107.000 position: Below 106.800 (to avoid a deeper pullback). For the 107.830 position: Below 107.500 (to account for short-term fluctuations). Position Sizing: Use smaller lot sizes for the second position if risk increases near resistance zones. --- 3. Take-Profit Strategy Conservative Targets: For both positions, a short-term take-profit can be set at 108.200, which may align with minor resistance. Aggressive Targets: Extend profit-taking to 108.500 or 109.000, depending on momentum and fundamental triggers. --- 4. Monitoring Key Levels Support Zones: Strong support at 107.000: Look for price consolidation here if it drops further. Resistance Zones: 108.000–108.200: Watch for profit-taking or reversal at these levels. 109.000: A more aggressive upside target.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Rates Are Down, So Why Isn’t Gold Shining?Gold Prices Drop to 2581 Amid Market Turmoil: What's Driving the Decline? Gold prices, as reflected in the XAU/USD pair, have slumped to 2581, marking a significant dip in the market. While many anticipated that falling interest rates would bolster gold, the reality has turned out to be more complex. Yesterday’s developments weighed heavily on the precious metal, and surprisingly, the negative impact isn’t directly tied to rate cuts. Instead, a mix of economic uncertainty and technical market dynamics has pushed gold into bearish territory. The Core Reason Behind Gold’s Decline The primary driver of this downward movement is the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts. While the Fed followed market expectations by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, its projections for next year surprised many. The central bank’s forecast of just two rate cuts in 2024 falls significantly short of market expectations, signaling a more hawkish stance than anticipated. This hawkishness has rippled through global markets. The U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s cautious tone, has strengthened, creating headwinds for commodities like gold that are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, broader market indices have also faced selling pressure, reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Technical Factors Amplify the Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, gold’s price action underscores the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The XAU/USD pair has decisively broken below a critical support level, exiting a global ascending channel that had been intact for weeks. This breakout has confirmed the downward momentum, with gold setting a new low at 2581. Key support and resistance levels now define the boundaries of potential price movements: Resistance Levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support Levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After breaking below the support, the price has moved into an imbalance zone, signaling a possible retest of the previously broken channel boundary. This retest could serve as a pivotal moment for market participants. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance zones at 2620 or 2630 and consolidates below these levels, it could pave the way for further declines. False breakouts, where the price briefly breaches a resistance level before reversing, are another factor to watch closely. A failed attempt to break key resistances like 2620 or 2630 could reinforce the bearish trend and lead to further downward pressure on gold. Macroeconomic Data in Focus Today’s trading session brings additional catalysts that could shape gold’s trajectory. Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of U.S. GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s cautious stance. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading or lower-than-expected jobless claims could further support the dollar, adding to gold’s woes. Conversely, weaker economic data might rekindle hopes for more aggressive rate cuts, potentially offering some relief to gold prices. Broader Implications for Gold Investors The recent price action in gold highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank policies, and technical market dynamics. While gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its performance is not immune to shifts in interest rate expectations and currency fluctuations. For investors, the key question is whether gold’s current bearish trend represents a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Much will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy unfolds in the coming months and how global economic conditions evolve. In the short term, traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A decisive break above resistance at 2636 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, while a sustained move below support at 2603 would likely confirm further downside potential. Until then, gold remains under pressure, navigating a challenging and uncertain landscape.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
2
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: USD Still Bullish? YES! Buy It!This forecast is for the week of Dec. 16th - 20th. The USD INDEX is indicating strength, continuing from last week going into this week. The economic calendar has red folders for every day this week. THe xxxUSD pairs are looking bearish, while the USDxxx pairs are looking bullish. The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Transcript
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money
US Index Bullish after the FOMC Fed rate Cut off to 4.5US index bulish after the FOMC Fed rate cut. Now the Price is still at 108.133 and the last resistance was break on the current level and wait for the confirmations The next level will be 109.156 and 109.954. The USD positive impact will have a negative impact on major pairs and gold; be careful when opening the trades. *Note: When the USD idex is strongly bullish and sentiments also show the data will impact after the gold bullish recovery.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
Bullish Liquidity Grab on USD/SGD ExpectedTechnical Analysis Monthly Chart: On the monthly chart, USD/SGD has shown a recovery after testing significant support zones, indicating that buyers stepped in to defend these levels. However, the recent upward movement appears overextended, suggesting a potential slowdown or correction in the near term. This aligns with broader market dynamics and the technical exhaustion seen after extended bullish runs. Daily Chart: The daily chart offers more clarity on current price action: Double High Formation: Two equal highs have formed on the chart, a classic indication of liquidity resting above these levels. From a price behavior perspective, this suggests that the market is likely to push upward to liquidate these equal highs before considering a significant move lower. Consolidation Zone: The price is currently consolidating, which often precedes a breakout. This consolidation reinforces the likelihood of a push higher to clear liquidity, especially when aligned with the broader USD dynamics. Fundamental Analysis U.S. Dollar Factors Impacting USD/SGD: The strength of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) plays a crucial role in USD/SGD movements. Here's how recent developments affect the pair: Liquidity Grab in DXY: The DXY recently breached its key level of 107.348 and is now showing bearish tendencies. However, short-term bullish corrections could provide temporary support for USD/SGD, aligning with the potential liquidity grab above the equal highs on the daily chart. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve has shown hesitancy toward further rate cuts due to inflation concerns. Robust labor market conditions, especially during the holiday season, reduce the immediate likelihood of aggressive rate cuts. However, rising unemployment or stable-to-declining inflation could shift this outlook, leading to USD weakness and potential corrections in USD/SGD. Upcoming Economic Catalysts: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data later this week are expected to influence USD sentiment significantly. If unemployment increases as expected, it could lead to a broader decline in the U.S. Dollar, impacting USD/SGD. Summary and Outlook Technical Expectations: Short-Term: USD/SGD is likely to push higher to liquidate the equal highs on the daily chart, given the consolidation and market behavior around these liquidity zones. Post-Liquidity Grab: After clearing the highs, a correction is probable, particularly if the broader U.S. Dollar weakens. This correction could take the pair back toward key support levels, depending on fundamental triggers. Key Factors to Monitor: DXY price action, particularly around its short-term support zones. NFP and unemployment data for clues on the U.S. labor market and inflation trends. Any changes in Federal Reserve policy outlook or macroeconomic developments in Singapore. Price Outlook: In the short term, USD/SGD may target the equal highs as a liquidity zone. In the medium term, the pair could correct lower following the liquidity grab, aligning with overextended technical patterns and potential USD weakness driven by fundamental factors. By aligning technical insights with the fundamental outlook for the U.S. Dollar, traders can anticipate near-term bullish moves in USD/SGD, followed by a potential correction.
Long
by Wiiso
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 30.11 2nd Support – 29.86 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Sell EURUSD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0437 2nd Support – 1.0410 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
EURUSD: Best opportunity to buy for the long term.EURUSD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.973, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 14.482) but almost still oversold on 1W (RSI = 35.674). This is because after the November 18th 1W candle bottom on the LL trendline of the 2 year Channel Down, it has completed 2 red weeks in a row. Still, having rebounded on oversold 1W RSI territory, those low levels present an excellent buy opportunity for those who missed the bottom. Every bounce on the Channel Down bottom has made at least a +5.42% rally, and that is what we're aiming for (TP = 1.0900). This may coincide with a 1W MA200 test. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURUSD UNTIL FOMC:4H Analysis OANDA:EURUSD EURUSD is in consolidation phase & has been moving in the range highlighted in the chart. Now, until FOMC we can only trade on highs and lows of the ongoing chart pattern BUY LEVEL RECOMMENDATION: 1.04330 & 1.04272 SELL LEVEL RECOMMENDATION: 1.06101 For SL, we should use very small and according to our risk: reward plan. If you guys find my idea helpful or insightful in possible way, then don't forget boost to and comment on the idea. I'll be very interested to see your take on the market.
by Forex_Analysis_Wing
XAU/USD (Gold) Wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2678 2nd Support – 2692 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
USD/JPY carry trade explainedCurrently, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 154.26, influenced by upcoming policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The US Fed's anticipated 25bps rate cut could potentially narrow the interest rate gap, affecting the carry trade's immediate appeal. However, the strong performance of the US economy, with robust job growth and rising inflation, might sustain the dollar's strength, keeping the carry trade attractive. Meanwhile, the BoJ's steady interest rate at 0.25% and potential for future hikes offer a contrasting backdrop, maintaining the yen's role as a low-interest currency. Global economic uncertainties and political changes in both the US and Japan could impact these dynamics, so traders should monitor central bank signals and economic data closely to navigate potential shifts in the carry trade's profitability.
by tastyfx