Weekly FOREX Forecast: USD Is Strong Vs EUR, GBP, AUD NZDThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DJ FXCM Index
DXY bulls are enjoying the moment. But for how long?Yes, the positivity is coming in for DXY bulls, but is it just an illusion? Stick around and let's take a quick look.
TVC:DXY
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD: Updated Support & Resistance Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for GBPUSD.
Horizontal Structures
Resistance 1: 1.304 - 1.310 area
Resistance 2: 1.331 - 1.332 area
Resistance 3: 1.341 - 1.343 area
Support 1: 1.284 - 1.286 area
Support 2: 1.277 - 1.280 area
Support 3: 1.266 - 1.269 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDCHF Channel Down bottom buy signal.USDCHF is trading inside a (1h) Channel Down with the price currently rebound after a bottom test.
This is a short term buy signal that will be confirmed upon a MA50 (1h) break out.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the MA50 (1h) breaks.
Targets:
1. 0.86650 (+0.67% rise like the previous three rallies.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is already over its MA trend line. Possibly an early bullish signal.
Please like, follow and comment!!
GOLD OUTLOOK Gold a safe heaven as we have taken bunch of profits today as it was our lucky day now as we see all day activity gold price remained very choppy price didn't broke above 2748 price level of resistance also didn't broke below 2731 price level of support as price has formed immediate resistance level of 2746-48
Now we again predict a fall in price as from H4 to H1 we can observe price is in a bearish momentum although price is showing some bearish signs over Daily Time frame but still price is in a bullish trend daily as we haven't observed any CHOCH on daily TF
GEOPOLITICS
As Geopolitics is concerned tight situation between iran and israel has loosen up to some extent of some tension increases we can see a bull run over price
US ELECTIONs
As far as today's big news is concerned gold is under effect of US Congress elections and what we have observed today is election effect tomorrow at 6th we can see any predictable price movment till now we are bearish over gold as price is all sideways
GBPJPY SELLAs in our previous anylisis we had told that price will go for previous high to be touched and price had done the same and as market sentiment has changed price is moving in to bearish movment and we predict that price will return to its support level of 196 and lower than that so we are at a bearish run for today and tomorrow
EURUSD: Get ready for a fast short.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 44.229) as it has started the new bullish wave following the test of the 1 year HL trendline but on 1H it got overbought (RSI = 76.034) rebounding very aggressively on its 1H MA50. That is fairly similar to the October 30th rebound of the bullish wave that topped upon a +1.15% rise. We are approaching that % increase so get ready to short. So far we have had two pullbacks of -0.56% each, an amazing display of symmetry inside the Channel Up. That is our target on the short term (TP = 1.08950).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
GPBUSD Bearish Megaphone starting new wave.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone for the past 30 trading days.
The price may now be supported by the 1hour MA50 but has formed the bearish formation it had on all prior tops under the Falling Resistance.
The 1hour RSI has formed a similar topping pattern.
As a result, this is a standard sell signal for the Bearish Megaphone.
All declines reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, so we can target at least the previous Low at 1.2850.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
EURUSD targeting 1.0500 after the 1W MA100 rejection.Late August (Aug 26, see chart below) saw us emphasizing the critical role of the Lower Highs trend-line, being the top of a multi-year Falling Wedge pattern that started at the peak of the 2008 Housing Crisis, and its important on the long-term trend, with a break-out being bullish while a rejection being bearish:
The price was eventually rejected exactly at the top and at the same time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which did the July 2023 rejection. That rejection initiated a correction back to the Symmetrical Support Zone of 2015.
As a result, we expect EURUSD to gradually descend towards that Zone and by mid 2025, hit 1.0500.
Notice also that the 1W RSI also got very close to its 15-year Resistance Zone. This has triggered in the past more brutal sell-offs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
USD/CHF Breakdown Opportunity: Targeting Next Support Leve"USD/CHF is approaching a critical support zone (highlighted in green). If we see a clear breakout below this level, it could signal strong bearish momentum, aiming for our next support zone marked in gray. 📉
Stay tuned for confirmation of the breakdown, and let's watch how the price reacts in this area. Potential trading opportunity for those looking to ride the trend downwards!
DXY Under Pressure: Analyzing Economic Signals Ahead U.S. Elect.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently showing intriguing movements as it deals with a mix of economic data and looming political changes. After a Friday marked by disappointing economic indicators—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Farm Employment Change—the DXY appears to be entering a potential reversal phase. This was further reflected in its negative opening on Monday, which had a noticeable impact on trading in London.
Economic Backdrop and Market Sentiment
The DXY's recent performance has been influenced by a combination of economic releases and trader sentiment. The mixed results from significant economic indicators have created a sense of cautious uncertainty among investors. The less-than-ideal ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change figures have raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, prompting traders to reassess their positions.
As market participants analyze these economic signals, it’s evident that the DXY is acting in response to established price levels and supply zones. Recent price actions suggest a critical juncture; the dollar seems to be encountering resistance as it approaches these key areas.
Insights from the COT Report
A deeper look at the market dynamics through the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a noteworthy divergence. Retail traders continue to maintain long positions, likely influenced by previous bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar. Meanwhile, institutional investors, often referred to as the "smart money," are taking a more bearish stance, gradually shifting their positions lower. This unsettling divergence raises important questions: Will the enthusiasm of retail traders sway the market, or will the more cautious strategies of institutional investors prevail?
This situation highlights the potential for volatility that characterizes these transitional phases in the market. Retail traders may find themselves at risk if the smart money's strategies prove to be more prescient.
Seasonal Trends Indicate a Bearish Outlook
Adding another layer of complexity, seasonal patterns historically suggest that a bearish trend may be on the horizon during this time of year. Price movements often align with established seasonal patterns, prompting traders to consider the implications for future market performance.
The Impending U.S. Elections: A Prelude to Volatility
With U.S. elections fast approaching, market volatility is expected to rise significantly. History shows that political events can greatly influence currency and asset prices, leading traders to adjust their positions in anticipation of results. This environment is likely to see retracements across various indices and currencies, creating turmoil across the financial landscape.
As market participants prepare for the immediate aftermath of the elections, substantial fluctuations are anticipated. The uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and the resulting policy shifts will drive considerable movement across asset classes.
Conclusion
The DXY’s trajectory is complex as it navigates a potential reversal amidst mixed economic signals, diverging trader positions, and impending political changes. With the elections on the horizon, traders should brace for increased volatility and be ready to adapt to rapid shifts in momentum. Staying informed about economic indicators, seasonal trends, and overall market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this challenging landscape. Ultimately, success in these uncertain times will hinge on understanding market psychology while remaining agile in response to both data releases and geopolitical developments.
Initial Idea:
✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
fib at 1.1034fibonnaci at 1.1034, it is my 1st target and first real ressistance, appart of not beeing there the price for long in my pov, but dxy has a resistance on the 16th of august at that level wht can invade the long posistion making a bigger resistance, but imo it will might go to 1.12 to 1.14 but only the markets can say, and be careful on election day.
keep ur trading safe, do your own analysis, you can take value in others persons analysis but do ur own, and keep ur risk safe,
take care at elections day, it can change everything,.
Gold after U.S. election : Since rising tensions have played a significant role in the recent increase in gold prices, let’s look at each U.S. presidential candidate’s approach to handling these tensions and their future plans.
Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, is focused on diplomatic efforts to reduce conflicts in the Middle East. She generally follows the Biden administration's approach, aiming to ease hostilities through aid and international agreements, including a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. This approach may help stabilize markets by reducing the volatility tied to prolonged conflicts.
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, takes a more aggressive stance. He supports a strong alliance with Israel, endorses military responses to threats from Iran and its regional affiliates, and prioritizes U.S. strength and independence. Trump's “America First” stance could lead to continued or heightened tensions, which historically correlates with higher gold prices due to investor flight to safe-haven assets.
In summary:
Kamala Harris: Diplomatic de-escalation, which may stabilize gold prices.
Donald Trump: Military strength and strong alliances, likely to keep prices high in case of increased tension.
These policy differences could significantly impact markets depending on which candidate wins.
Please support us by liking and leaving comments!
Gold Out LookPreviously from few weeks we were bullish over gold and still if we follow the major trend from monthly to weekly to Daily we are still bullish over the pair but from last week the pair has shown us a new ATH and done a retracment downwards now its has reached between 23.8 to 38.2 retracment level now as the price action is followed it will follow the bear trend from 4H to 1H to lower time frames and go towards price level of 2716 and then if bears will push it more down and price breaks the support level on 2716 it will be seen in 2698 level of support which is 50% of fibbonaci retracement level and then we can a see a upward rally
GEOPOLITICAL Factor
As we have seen earlier Iran and Israel Tension was on Peak and Investors tried to Invest in Safe heaven and the safe heaven performed well now the tension is weaken a little so that price is going down if some tension increases we will see a Rise in price
AMERICAN Elections
American elections are right on the edge and price 5th November is a crucial date and the coming week will be a busy week for safe heaven banks and big player so we will be watching price closely if we observe any bullish price action pattern we will be buying safe heaven otherwise we will enjoy the bearish move
fingers crossed next week will be very busy and crucial for the future of Bulls and bears
USD/JPY Trade Idea (15-Minute Timeframe)We’re approaching the resistance level in the pink zone again, with signs of another breakout attempt. My idea is that if we break through this pink resistance zone, the next target would be the green zone above.
Stay tuned and manage your risk as we monitor this setup! 📈
EURUSD Short term buy inside a Channel Up.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price has falled by -0.55%, same amount as the October 25th-28th pull back.
That was a short term buy opportunity that targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci.
The MA200 (1h) is supporting just below.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08750 (Fibonacci 0.786 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is about to turn oversold. That has been the most effective buy signal on the last 3 lows (October 29th, 28th and 23rd).
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
USDJPY Daily Analysis: A Slight Bearish Bias Expected!!Introduction
Today’s analysis of the USDJPY pair suggests a potential for slight bearish movement. Key fundamental factors, including recent US and Japanese economic data and central bank positions, seem to favor a downside bias. Let’s examine these drivers in detail to provide a comprehensive view for traders and investors monitoring the USDJPY.
1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Tone
The US Federal Reserve’s latest communication indicates a cautious approach, with market participants widely expecting the Fed to maintain its current interest rate. This dovish tone, coupled with moderating US economic data, could weaken the US Dollar. If the Fed holds rates or hints at potential rate cuts in 2024, this could weigh on the USD, providing room for JPY strength against the Dollar. Consequently, the market’s perception of a less aggressive Fed policy may contribute to the USDJPY pair’s bearish bias today.
2. Bank of Japan’s Evolving Stance
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has recently shown signs of potentially moving away from its ultra-loose policy stance. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments have signaled a potential shift in monetary policy, raising speculation around adjustments in yield control measures. Any further tightening of Japanese yields or gradual normalization signals may strengthen the JPY as Japanese bond yields rise, attracting capital inflows. This shift, however gradual, could support a stronger JPY, thereby pressuring USDJPY downward.
3. Japanese Economic Resilience
Japan’s economy has recently demonstrated steady resilience, with improved inflation data aligning closer to the BoJ’s targets. Stronger-than-expected inflation readings and positive manufacturing activity lend support to the JPY. The BoJ’s confidence in these indicators may reinforce market sentiment that Japan is on a steady path to growth. Consequently, with USD expected to remain relatively soft, this positions the JPY more favorably in the USDJPY pair, reinforcing today’s bearish outlook.
4. Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows
In today’s mixed risk sentiment environment, safe-haven assets like the JPY often become more attractive. Investors may favor the JPY in times of global economic uncertainty or as geopolitical events unfold. As the US Dollar is pressured by softer economic indicators, the JPY’s safe-haven appeal may drive demand, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish tendency today.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the USDJPY pair shows potential for a slight bearish bias today due to the Fed’s cautious stance, the BoJ’s gradual policy evolution, resilient Japanese economic data, and safe-haven flows favoring the JPY. Traders may find it beneficial to watch these fundamental factors closely, as they provide critical insights into USDJPY’s likely direction.
Keywords:
#USDJPYanalysis,
#USDollar,
#JapaneseYen,
#USDJPYbearishbias,
#ForextradingNovember12024,
#FederalReservepolicy,
#Bankof Japanstance,
#JPYstrength,
#Safehavencurrency,
#Forextechnicalanalysis,
#Japaneseinflationdata,
#Forextradinginsights.