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USD/JPY analysis ahead of the US inflation reportsUSD/JPY bounced off the one-week top yesterday and stayed firmer around its intraday high of late. This week, we've seen another missile test from North Korea, which may lead to further sanctions being put in place by the US. We also saw Fed Chair Powell testify at a hearing about economics and potential new measures to fight Omicron (a related virus). All this news provides a lot of focus on covid variants. That helped JPY to dominate other significant currencies. As a result, JPY became strong against most of the major currencies. USD/JPY consolidated the recent losses around 115.30, rising for the first time four days during early Tuesday. The risk barometer pair portrays the market's cautious optimism amid recently positive comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and covid updates. However, inflation fears ahead of Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data challenge the USD/JPY bulls. The market's sentiment towards the US FED members remains hawkish, with worries around potential economic issues and a cure for the coronavirus- its variants. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made hawkish comments in prepared remarks this morning, which could be seen as a significant favor to positive risk-on moods. Additionally, words from Merck's official saying, "Expect Molnupiravir mechanism to work against omicron any covid variant," could also be seen as positive for risk appetite. However, what should note that market players remain cautious ahead of today's testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Wednesday's US inflation data. If the US cannot manage to keep their in under control, USD/JPY may drop and test nearly 112.00 From the present rate, 115.65 is the immediate resistance, and swing high is the 116.35 price zone. Technical Analysis Last week USD/JPY tested 116.35 zones; what was the trendline resistance. Technically it was supposed to drop from that level. But Omicron and other issues help to drop more than 100+ pips. From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 114.70 price zone. So, I am expecting USD/JPY may test the 114.70 price zone very soon. Then investors will wait for the inflation reports. If the US inflation reports print positive, USD/JPY may bounce back to the swing high 116.35 area or immediate resistance 115.65 area. On the other hand, if the US inflation reports drop and Omicron spreads more than expected, USD/JPY has one more chance to test the 112.00 price zone this week.
Short
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
USDJPY Reversal Pattern - Turning BEARISH? 3 Options For Entry! Hi All, As you can see, I am bearish on USDJPY. I am expecting price to rise next week and hit the key levels on the image above, which we can start looking for momentum to the downside and confirmation that it will turn bearish for the medium term. Keep an eye on the key levels and see how price will respect and react to them! It should give you a really nice opportunity to enter your Sells! I hope this post can help you. I will be posting a simplified version with the "very likely" option, just so it can be clearer for you. Let me know your thoughts - whether you like any of the 3 ideas to take your own trades or if you are bullish in this pair! Have a great and profitable week all! Cheers, Gaspar_Trader
Short
by Gaspar_Trader
USDJPY | Strong Bearish Trend. When it comes to USDJPY , a while ago, we've seen a strong impulse to the upside. And got rejected from a resistance. Right now price is staying near a supply zone as well. We also seen a multiple rejection from that area as well, which clearly shows the selling strength. Looks like there aren't many support areas till S1. So you could start booking profit from S1, which was the previous resistance area. If you find this technical analysis useful, please like & share our ideas with the community. What do you think is more likely to happen? Please share your thoughts in comment section. And also give a thumbs up if you find this idea helpful. Any feedback & suggestions would help in further improving the analysis. Good Luck! Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Short
by maxprofwizard
USDJPY | Good Buy Opportunity If you find this technical analysis useful, please like & share our ideas with the community. Coming to the technical analysis of USDJPY, I think we are going to see an upward movement. If you are going to go long now, make sure to place the stop below the previous support area . What do you think is more likely to happen? Please share your thoughts in comment section. And also give a thumbs up if you find this idea helpful. Any feedback & suggestions would help in further improving the analysis. Good Luck! Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Long
by MaxProfHacker
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum RemainsThe outlook for the US dollar was boosted last Friday when official figures confirmed US inflation had risen to a new multi-decade high last month, which is likely to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on course to accelerate its monetary policy normalization. The price of the USD/JPY currency pair moved towards the level of 113.80 after the data and settled around the level of 113.46 as of this writing. The US dollar's exchange rates fluctuated briefly before the weekend as figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that a 0.8% US inflation increase in November lifted the annual pace of price growth in the US to 6.8% last month. Meanwhile, inflation rose from 4.6% to 4.9% for November, the highest level since the year ending June 1991, even after excluding changes in volatile food and energy prices from the figures after a 0.5% increase in November in core inflation. Gasoline, housing, food, used cars and trucks and new vehicles were among the biggest contributors to the price increases in November, all goods whose supplies were recently disrupted by efforts to contain the Corona virus, which has led to prices rising sharply over the past year. Catherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets economist, says: “With inflation at a high pace, the Fed is expected to accelerate its quantitative easing schedule at the December meeting, to end in early spring, and to allow for a rate hike in the second quarter of 2022, when the winter wave of Covid is late for us.” Inflation has risen sharply around the world this year due to shortages of goods and labor as well as other factors, although price increases have been stronger in the United States where publicly funded financial support for households was much greater than elsewhere at the height of the pandemic. November was the second consecutive month that the headline CPI rose more than six percent, well above the Fed's average inflation target of 2 percent and likely to keep the bank on track to accelerate the normalization of its monetary policy settings. The strength and persistence of recent increases in inflation have led Fed policy makers to rethink earlier expectations that price pressures would quickly dissipate on their own, and they almost cut the bargain for a decision this week to speed up the process of winding down the bank's bond-buying program. Ten of the twelve FOMC voting members have publicly indicated over the past month that they might support a decision to scale back the Fed's monthly bond purchases at a faster pace than agreed in November. Many economists now expect the Fed to end its bond purchases in March instead of June 2022, which would provide room for the bank to start raising its key rate as soon as possible in the second quarter of next year if inflation pressures remain high enough in the interim. Technical Analysis How the USD/JPY will close out this year will depend on what will be issued by the US Federal Reserve this week. So far, the currency pair is in a neutral position with a bearish bias, and stability below the 113.00 support will increase the bears' control to move further downwards. According to the performance on the daily chart, the next bearish targets will be 112.50, 111.75 and 110.60. On the upside, and according to the performance over the same time period, the 114.20 resistance will be important for the bulls to launch further and change the current situation. In addition to the raising of interest rates, it is necessary to take into account the extent of risk appetite.
Short
by SmoothJB
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Neutral with Bullish BiasSince the start of this week's trading, the USD/JPY has been moving within attempts to rebound upwards, reach the 113.78 resistance and settling around 113.50 as of this writing. This came after the announcement of growth figures for the Japanese economy, and no important US data. The US dollar is still supported by expectations that the US interest rate will be raised soon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in testimony to US lawmakers last week, said he no longer sees inflation as temporary, and the possibility of an accelerating "gradual taper" could be announced at the US Federal Reserve's December meeting. The US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1 billion in October, the lowest level in six months, after hitting a record high in September. A significant rebound in exports helped offset a much smaller increase in imports. In this regard, the US Commerce Department reported that the October deficit was 17.6% below its all-time high in September at $81.4 billion. It was the smallest monthly deficit since the $66.2 billion imbalance in April. Economists see the strong rebound in exports as evidence that global supply chains are beginning to disintegrate, and believe that smaller deficits this quarter could give a boost to overall US economic growth. There were gains in many export categories, indicating that the recovering global economy is beginning to boost demand for US products. Americans' demand for imports was racing ahead of export sales as the US economy recovered more quickly than other countries from the pandemic. In October, exports rose 8.1% to $223.6 billion while imports rose 0.9% to $290.7 billion. A deficit is the gap between what the United States exports to the rest of the world and the imports it buys from foreign countries. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China, the largest with any country, fell 14% in October to $31.4 billion. In the first 10 months of this year, the goods trade deficit with China was 13.7% higher than it was a year ago. America's total trade deficit is $705.2 billion so far this year, up 29.7% from the same period last year. Trade flows were sharply reduced last year as the COVID pandemic curtailed economic activity. Part of the October increase in exports reflected an increase in oil exports, reflecting the return to more normal operations at Gulf Coast refineries that had been closed by Hurricane Ida. Big gains in US auto exports and imports suggest that the global shortage of computer chips that has hampered auto production is beginning to recede, a trend that leaders in the auto industry have noted. Commenting on the results, Andrew Hunter, chief US economist at Capital Economics, predicted that the improved business picture would add about one percentage point to US economic growth in the current October-December quarter. It expects GDP to grow at an annual rate of 6.5% this quarter, a significant improvement from the modest 2.1% growth rate in the third quarter. Technical Analysis As I expected, the USD/JPY will continue to move in narrow ranges until the US inflation figures are announced. The psychological resistance is still 114.00 and is crucial for the bulls to continue moving upward. So far I still prefer to sell the currency pair from every bullish level. There is still a break in the trend on the daily chart and the neutrality of performance in the recent period is due to the markets’ loss of catalysts for a higher launch, as the world is still studying the effects of the new COVID variant and its resistance to approved vaccines and the absence of influential US data since the beginning of the week's trading. To the downside, breaking the 113.00 support will give the bears the motivation to move back, and accordingly, the next support levels may be 112.25, 111.40 and 110.80.
by SmoothJB
USDJPY | Perspective for the new weekAs the Greenback appear to begin on a positive note during the initial hours of the Tokyo session today, the US inflation concerns ahead of this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to be a major determinant on this pair. However, the strong bearish engulfing candle that thwarted buying momentum on the 29th of Nov 2021, sends a wave of caution as any selling opportunity can only be confirmed if we have either a rejection of the broken bullish trendline or an outright breakdown/retest of JY112.800 within the week. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Since mid September 2021, the USD recorded 5.85% growth against the Yen to initiate an uptrend momentum. ii. But after testing JY115.500 on the 24th of November 2021, we witnessed a sharp decline which broke the Bullish Trendline to the downside insinuating a possible reversal or retracement of Impulse leg (check weekly chart). iii. During the course of last week trading session, I observed that the price broke and closed below the key level @ JY112.800 a couple of times and this gives me an impression that the sellers are gaining momentum at this juncture. iv. Patience is hereby required at this point as the early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test the new supply level identified on the chart around JY113.750/114.500 to incite further decline. v. In case the price does not climb and we witness a Breakdown of the Demand level which has held price "supported" since September 2021; then we can prepare a sell position with the key level @ JY112.800 as a yardstick... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 7 to 15days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Reversing the General TrendOn the daily chart, the USD/JPY is stable in an important area. Breaking the 113.00 support supports a bearish reversal of the trend an further movement down. The closest support levels for the pair are currently 112.75, 111.80 and 110.90. On the upside, the bulls will break through the 114.60 resistance to return to the upside track. I still prefer selling the currency pair from every bullish level. The USD/JPY will be affected today by the announcement of the US consumer confidence reading and the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. For the third day in a row, the USD/JPY is settling below the 113.00 support level after strong selloffs which the pair recently witnessed as it collapsed from its highest level in six years, when it tested the 115.52 resistance level last week. The outbreak of a new variant of the Corona virus, which contributed to the return of lockdowns, disturbed investors and markets, and it may also be with global central banks that are heading towards tightening their monetary policy. This morning, the currency pair attempted to correct upwards to reach the 113.88 resistance level, but it came back down, settling around the 113.10 support level at the time of writing the analysis. FX markets have generally calmed since the start of this week's trading, despite mixed omicron anxiety that dominated international headlines. Currently, investors seem to adopt a wait-and-see approach to investing. Market analysts are still forecasting fluctuations in the currencies' performance. “Until then, market volatility is likely to remain elevated,” said Rodrigo Cattrell, senior FX analyst at National Australia Bank, in a note to clients. “Markets have had to reassess the global growth outlook until we know more. ” Global financial markets will be watching US President Joe Biden's speech when he provides an update on America's response to the new variant. Although the World Health Organization (WHO) has urged everyone to avoid a sudden reaction, officials have reacted by closing borders and suspending travel to and from major destinations. Meanwhile, investors will be paying close attention to the speeches of several Fed leaders. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and outgoing Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida will speak and may offer some insights into how the omicron variable could affect the US central bank's monetary policy moving forward. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six major competing currencies, rose to 96.20, and the index suffered a weekly loss last week of 0.3%, but it is still up by 7% since the beginning of the year 2021 to date. The USDJPY rate may be more sensitive to the ebb and flow of risk appetite in global markets as well as any other insights into the Fed's policy outlook that all of the different Fed rate setters who are set to speak publicly throughout the week may offer. These various speeches will come after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Monday and Tuesday appearance in Congress, and they will all be listened to closely by the market for clues about whether the new virus strain is something that can prevent the Fed from accelerating its tapering easing program. Quantitative bank begins to raise US interest rates. This comes after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting last week revealed that some of the bank's policy makers were considering calling for exactly this course of action, which severely affected the currency pair's price.
by SmoothJB