USD/JPY eyes break of 150 and 200-day MA retestThe recovery from 140 has been nothing short of impressive. The daily RSI is confirming the rising prices on the daily chart, and momentum suggests USD/JPY wants to head for the 200-day MA around the 151 handle.
There are some concerns that that inflation could pick up due to the hot NFP report, so we may find that pre-emptive bets prompt a break of the August high to bring 150 into focus. Even if prices retrace lower first, dips are preferred and the bias is for an eventual move to 151.
USD
Bullish bounce off pullback support?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 59,378.90
1st Support: 57,833.43
1st Resistance: 61,888.24
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6727
Stop Loss: 0.6800 (73 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.6600 (127 pips below entry, offering a 1.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
With global risk-off sentiment growing and commodity prices showing signs of weakness, AUD/USD could face further downside pressure. This setup capitalizes on potential bearish momentum, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
USDMXN: Short Term BuyEntry: 19.4600
Stop Loss: 19.3000 (160 pips below entry)
Take Profit: 19.7000 (240 pips above entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning: The Mexican peso has been showing signs of weakening, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. This trend suggests that USD/MXN could continue its upward movement, providing a potential buying opportunity.
EUR/USD in Trouble? BofA May Think So Bank of America (BofA) anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates more aggressively than what is currently reflected in the EUR/USD.
This expectation is driven by doubts surrounding the ECB's estimate of the neutral rate and shifting savings and investment patterns within the Euro Area.
Even so, the EUR/USD has dropped to a new weekly low of 1.0950. With the U.S. dollar maintaining a bullish trend across the FX market, the pair may decline further, potentially testing the next support level at 1.0910.
If BofA’s forecast holds true, EUR/USD could revisit the lower highs seen in August and July, signaling a deeper pullback.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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GBPUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support and resistance levels on GBPUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.3235 - 1.3266 area
Resistance 2: 1.3312 - 1.3322 area
Resistance 3: 1.3414 - 1.3434 area
Support 1: 1.3000 - 1.3043 area
Support 2: 1.2860 - 1.2888 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GBPUSD Will it hold the 1D MA50??The GBPUSD pair has been trading exactly on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past two days and so far it held. Today though it appears to be making its first legitimate attempt to break it and if the 1D candle closes below it, we will have a confirmed bearish break-out.
This is similar to the August 03 2023 bearish break-out, which was the ultimate medium-term sell confirmation after a long Bullish Megaphone that dictated the trend. As you can see the two fractals are identical, initially declining by around -5% and then rising towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension through their Megaphones.
The 2023 sell signal reached the 0.786 Fib after the break-out and that will be our Target again (1.2550) if the 1D candle confirms that closing below the 1D MA50.
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Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as pullback resistance.
Pivot: 73.01
1st Support: 70.37
1st Resistance: 77.51
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish reversal?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could reverse to the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 1.3032
1st Support: 1.2947
1st resistance: 1.3152
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.6750
1st Support: 0.6687
1st Resistance: 0.6809
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,634.61
1st Support: 2,599.58
1st Resistance: 2,667.58
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Breaking: NZD Slips as RBNZ Cuts Rates by 50 bpsAt its October meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points, lowering it from 5.25% to 4.75%, in line with expectations.
The NZD/USD pair deepens its decline, falling below the crucial 100 AND 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A clear break could set the stage for a move toward the psychological 0.6000 level.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, set for release later on Wednesday.
GOLD BULLISH TO $2,706 (1H UPDATE)If you lot remember on my last analysis I said I see 2 options for Gold, on how it'll move up towards $2,700. One option was it carries on moving up slowly from CMP towards $2,7000 & the other option was to see a 3 Sub-Wave correction towards$2,600 - $2,590. This'll then be followed by Wave V to the upside.
Right now I am leaning more towards option 2 & waiting for a downside retracement (Wave 4) before buying. This Wave 4 will liquidate all late buyers & trap new sellers, before Gold moves up again.
GOLD BULLISH TO $2,706 (1H UPDATE)Gold has successfully dropped down towards our second POI! Could possibly see price drop a little lower, but overall we are in a good buying zone. I will let price settle in the next day or 2 & allow it to form good market structure, in order for me to buy into.
We've seen a 3 Sub-Wave correction (A,B,C) for Wave IV. Now time for Wave V bull run!
EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing:
Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame.
As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200.
The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000.
Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place.
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Bullish reversal off major overlap support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3031
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2940
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3159
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 147.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 145.79
Why we like it:
There is an overlap level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 149.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8510
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.84811
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8584
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0955
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.0899
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.1048
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish reversal off overlap support?WTI oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could reverse to the pullback resistance level.
Pivot: 74.75
1st Support: 73.07
1st Resistance: 78.53
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.