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US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05062022NFP DAY!!! Since my last post, price has literally just moved sideways. Currently there is very little volume in anticipation of NFP @ 8:30AM EST I don't currently see an entry but I am looking for price to pull back into the 33200-33400 range and exhibit signs of exhaustion/reversal. At that point I will consider and entry but it looks like that is atleast a couple hours away. Also have to take into account that it is Friday and I don't particularly like holding trades over the weekend so I may just sit out today and come back fresh next week unless I see a really good opportunity: 1:3 RRR and SL outside of structure. Let's see what happens today. Watch out for news and Happy Friday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05052022THE BEARS ARE BACK IN TOWN. After the push up yesterday following Daddy J. Powell's comments, the market (shocker) has corrected itself and continued with the overall bearish directional bias. IMO the comments made yesterday about the "strength" of our current economic and labor situation were simply a distraction from the fact that they announced the largest interest rate increase since the year 2000. Had they not made these comments, the markets would have not only gone up, they would have PLUNGED. So instead we had this dog and pony show of "everything is fine" while the house is burning in the background. That's why initially the market jumped up 1000 points after this "news" but today the real market factors came back into play and here we have the result. All of the 1000 point gain that was realized yesterday has been completely erased and by all of my measures, the bears are still in control here. I anticipate price to hover sideways during Asian and early London session. I will then be looking to get back in somewhere around good ole 33200-33300 level to continue the ride downwards, targeting previous structure lows. Have a good night and see you tomorrow morning!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05042022Well that was a doozy! As anticipated, news threw all technicals out the window and pushed price up over 1000 points in 2 hours at the time of this writing. With this new push up we will see where price goes during Asian and London session but it price forms a support at this new 34000 area then potentially we may be looking at a further push up to retest previous levels of support/resistance heading towards 35000. If not, price may run out of gas in this 34000 area and then look to continue the push down to approximately the 33000 or 32500 levels. Have a good night and see you before NY session tomorrow morning!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 05032022Price today pushed down to around 33000 and kind of just hovered between there and 33300 Ranging market full of indecision pending tomorrow's FOMC Meeting. Keep an eye on the news for interest rate decision and other news that can send this moving. I anticipate price will continue in this range of 33000 - 33300 throughout Asian session and early London session tonight. From there I think the bearish move will continue with news fueling this but we will see. Have a good night!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04292022What an end to the month :/ After my last post, price floated sideways for a couple hours then right after market open at 9:30AM EST price shot up and stopped me out @ 33875 then shot back down to my TP of 33400 and continued pushing down all the way to my previous TPs earlier in the week of 33200 and 32950 I have to say I'm a bit salty about this but I'm just going to add some pepper and keep it cooking. In retrospect the 2 things I could have done differently here are: 1. Entered the trade during London session - this would have been the absolute optimal time to enter with a ridiculous risk to reward of 1:5 minimum but the only problem with that is I was asleep and usually am at 2AM. So this is probably not feasible to try and adjust much. 2. Once I was stopped out I could have looked for exhaustion and a sign of the bears coming back into the market on the M1 timeframe. I went down to the M5 and M15 after being stopped out but didn't see any big wicks or clear reversal patterns that indicated to me price was going to start dropping. This combined with a strong bullish close on the H1 off a possible 38.2 fib level on a bullish countertrend and I thought I should just let this one go, and I did :/ 3. Once price dropped a bit I could have gotten back in albeit at a lower level but at an indication of exhaustion on the M15 which did occur. I was already checked out of the market by this point tbh and not in front of my trade station just tracking on mobile so I called it in for the week. I learned some valuable lessons this week including the importance of documenting my trades in detail. I feel that this platform gives me a good place to do this while also sharing my findings and journey with others who are also trying to find their way to consistent profits in this trading game. With that, I hope to continue doing these pre and post NY market analysis videos for my own journaling and growth as a trader but I also hope that maybe you get some value along the way :) Have a great weekend, take a break from the charts and refresh. See you pre NY session on Monday!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04292022Price pushed back up to approximately 34000 during Asian session and kinda floated sideways during early London session. There was some nice exhaustion that formed around 2-3 AM which would have potentially made a good entry point but I wasn't awake for that :/ Price now appears to be pushing down retesting recent support of approximately 33800 As of now I'm staying out, I would like to see price push back up to this 34000 - 34200 level and show some signs of exhaustion/reversal before getting in to continue the larger overall bearish trend which I believe is still intact. We'll see what happens today as this is the final trading day for the month. See you after NY session! Good luck!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04282022Interesting movements today. Price dropped from my entry of 33650 to about 32250 Did not reach my target of 33200 for a 1:4 risk to reward but I was trailing my stop along the way so I secured profits at 33400 when price started to retrace. Had it not been for trailing my stop I would have gotten stopped out as after price entered that zone in the 33200s it pushed all the way back up to 33900+ The name of the game on this one was proper trade management without a doubt. Closing out the week and the month tomorrow I still believe the overall bearish bias is still intact. I am looking for price to push back up to about 34200 which is a previous level of structure and see if it begins to exhibit any signs of exhaustion or countertrend reversal. If so I will be looking to get in around this 34200 weekly support and resistance level and continue riding the bearish momentum down to my previous target of 33200. If price breaks above this level it may indicate the beginning of a reversal in the overall bias and possibly consider a short term buy position but that will all depend on the price action over the next few hours in Asian and early London sessions. See you all pre NY session tomorrow. Have a good night!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - PRE NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04282022As anticipated, price pushed back up during Asian and early London session to approximately the 33650 level which appears to be a strong resistance area and the previous structure from the past couple of days. Price now appears to be reversing and continuing in the overall direction of the bias on larger timeframes which is still definitely bearish in my opinion. I've entered at approximately 33655 and my TP1 is 33200 targeting the previous structure low from the last couple of days this week. If it breaks past this TP1 area I will be trailing my stops and targeting 32925 as my TP2 and my TP3 on a larger more swing like trade will be 325925. No real major US news today or tomorrow so hopefully should be smooth sailing following the volume and overall bearish market bias. See you after NY Session today! Happy Trading!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier
US30 - POST NY SESSION ANALYSIS - 04272022Not too shabby :) Price moved exactly as I predicted, dropping down to 33200 before getting pushed back up. Then it bounced up and down between approximately 33600 and 33200 for the rest of the session. On the daily we closed weak so I expect price to push back up from it's current level around 33400 retesting the previous highs of the last couple days before the larger overall bearish trend comes back into play. We will see how the next few hour play out over Asian and early London session. See you guys pre NY tomorrow! Have a good night
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ryanweier